A new approach for detecting and mapping sewage impacts

Increased nitrogen loading has been implicated in eutrophication occurrences worldwide. Much of this loading is attributable to the growing human population along the world's coastlines. A significant component of this nitrogen input is from sewage effluent, and delineation of the distribution and biological impact of sewage-derived nitrogen is becoming increasingly important. Here, we show a technique that identifies the source, extent and fate of biologically available sewage nitrogen in coastal marine ecosystem. This method is based on the uptake of sewage nitrogen by marine plants and subsequent analysis of the sewage signature (elevated delta N-15) in plant tissues. Spatial analysis is used to create maps of delta N-15 and establish coefficient of variation estimates of the mapped values. We show elevated delta N-15 levels in marine plants near sewage outfalls in Moreton Bay, Australia, a semi-enclosed bay receiving multiple sewage inputs. These maps of sewage nitrogen distribution are being used to direct nutrient reduction strategies in the region and will assist in monitoring the effectiveness of environmental protection measures. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatial distribution and developmental appearance of postjunctional P2X(1) receptors on smooth muscle cells of the mouse vas deferens

P2X(1)-type purinoceptors, have been shown to mediate fast transmission between sympathetic varicosities and smooth muscle cells in the mouse vas deferens but the spatial organization of these receptors on the smooth muscle cells remains inconclusive. Voltage clamp techniques were used to estimate the amplitudes of spontaneous excitatory junction currents (SEJCs) in cells of the vas deferens longitudinal smooth muscle layer. These currents involved the activation of about 6% of the P2X-type channels present on the cell, as compared to whole cell currents produced when isolated smooth muscle cells were exposed to maximal concentrations of either ATP or alpha,beta -MeATP. Immunofluorescence staining of the vas deferens with antibodies against P2X(1) receptor showed a diffuse, grainy distribution over the entire membrane of each smooth muscle cell. Anti-P2X(1) staining was not markedly clustered beneath anti-SV2-stained sympathetic varicosities. Similar results were obtained for cells in the urinary bladder. During development, P2X(1) mRNA was detected as early as embryonic day 15 (E15). Increasing intensities of diffuse immunostaining for P2X(1) were observed in the walls of the bladder, tail artery, and aorta from E15 until 6 weeks postnatal. The vas deferens showed increasing intensities of diffuse staining of its smooth muscle layers between 2 and 6 weeks postnatal, consistent with the time-course of development of fast purinergic transmission described previously. Together, the results suggest that the response of smooth muscle of the vas deferens to ATP released from sympathetic varicosities relies on rapidly desensitizing P2X(1) receptors, distributed diffusely across the smooth muscle cell surface. Synapse 42:1-11, 2001. (C) 2001 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Habitat complexity, spatial interference, and "minimum risk distribution": a framework for population stability

In the past century, the debate over whether or not density-dependent factors regulate populations has generally focused on changes in mean population density, ignoring the spatial variance around the mean as unimportant noise. In an attempt to provide a different framework for understanding population dynamics based on individual fitness, this paper discusses the crucial role of spatial variability itself on the stability of insect populations. The advantages of this method are the following: (1) it is founded on evolutionary principles rather than post hoc assumptions; (2) it erects hypotheses that can be tested; and (3) it links disparate ecological schools, including spatial dynamics, behavioral ecology, preference-performance, and plant apparency into an overall framework. At the core of this framework, habitat complexity governs insect spatial variance. which in turn determines population stability. First, the minimum risk distribution (MRD) is defined as the spatial distribution of individuals that results in the minimum number of premature deaths in a population given the distribution of mortality risk in the habitat (and, therefore, leading to maximized population growth). The greater the divergence of actual spatial patterns of individuals from the MRD, the greater the reduction of population growth and size from high, unstable levels. Then, based on extensive data from 29 populations of the processionary caterpillar, Ochrogaster lunifer, four steps are used to test the effect of habitat interference on population growth rates. (1) The costs (increasing the risk of scramble competition) and benefits (decreasing the risk of inverse density-dependent predation) of egg and larval aggregation are quantified. (2) These costs and benefits, along with the distribution of resources, are used to construct the MRD for each habitat. (3) The MRD is used as a benchmark against which the actual spatial pattern of individuals is compared. The degree of divergence of the actual spatial pattern from the MRD is quantified for each of the 29 habitats. (4) Finally, indices of habitat complexity are used to provide highly accurate predictions of spatial divergence from the MRD, showing that habitat interference reduces population growth rates from high, unstable levels. The reason for the divergence appears to be that high levels of background vegetation (vegetation other than host plants) interfere with female host-searching behavior. This leads to a spatial distribution of egg batches with high mortality risk, and therefore lower population growth. Knowledge of the MRD in other species should be a highly effective means of predicting trends in population dynamics. Species with high divergence between their actual spatial distribution and their MRD may display relatively stable dynamics at low population levels. In contrast, species with low divergence should experience high levels of intragenerational population growth leading to frequent habitat-wide outbreaks and unstable dynamics in the long term. Six hypotheses, erected under the framework of spatial interference, are discussed, and future tests are suggested.

The Alcohol Helplessness Scale and its prediction of depression among problem drinkers

Event-specific scales commonly have greater power than generalized scales in prediction of specific disorders and in testing mediator models for predicting such disorders. Therefore, in a preliminary study, a 6-item Alcohol Helplessness Scale was constructed and found to be reliable for a sample of 98 problem drinkers. Hierarchical multiple regression and its derivative path analysis were used to test whether helplessness and self-efficacy moderate or mediate the link between alcohol dependence and depression, A test of a moderation model was not supported, whereas a test of a mediation model was supported. Helplessness and self-efficacy both significantly and independently mediated between alcohol dependence and depression. Nevertheless, a significant direct effect of alcohol dependence on depression also remained, (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Advances in application of climate prediction in agriculture

Agricultural ecosystems and their associated business and government systems are diverse and varied. They range from farms, to input supply businesses, to marketing and government policy systems, among others. These systems are dynamic and responsive to fluctuations in climate. Skill in climate prediction offers considerable opportunities to managers via its potential to realise system improvements (i.e. increased food production and profit and/or reduced risks). Realising these opportunities, however, is not straightforward as the forecasting skill is imperfect and approaches to applying the existing skill to management issues have not been developed and tested extensively. While there has been much written about impacts of climate variability, there has been relatively little done in relation to applying knowledge of climate predictions to modify actions ahead of likely impacts. However, a considerable body of effort in various parts of the world is now being focused on this issue of applying climate predictions to improve agricultural systems. In this paper, we outline the basis for climate prediction, with emphasis on the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon, and catalogue experiences at field, national and global scales in applying climate predictions to agriculture. These diverse experiences are synthesised to derive general lessons about approaches to applying climate prediction in agriculture. The case studies have been selected to represent a diversity of agricultural systems and scales of operation. They also represent the on-going activities of some of the key research and development groups in this field around the world. The case studies include applications at field/farm scale to dryland cropping systems in Australia, Zimbabwe, and Argentina. This spectrum covers resource-rich and resource-poor farming with motivations ranging from profit to food security. At national and global scale we consider possible applications of climate prediction in commodity forecasting (wheat in Australia) and examine implications on global wheat trade and price associated with global consequences of climate prediction. In cataloguing these experiences we note some general lessons. Foremost is the value of an interdisciplinary systems approach in connecting disciplinary Knowledge in a manner most suited to decision-makers. This approach often includes scenario analysis based oil simulation with credible models as a key aspect of the learning process. Interaction among researchers, analysts and decision-makers is vital in the development of effective applications all of the players learn. Issues associated with balance between information demand and supply as well as appreciation of awareness limitations of decision-makers, analysts, and scientists are highlighted. It is argued that understanding and communicating decision risks is one of the keys to successful applications of climate prediction. We consider that advances of the future will be made by better connecting agricultural scientists and practitioners with the science of climate prediction. Professions involved in decision making must take a proactive role in the development of climate forecasts if the design and use of climate predictions are to reach their full potential. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Riddling and invariance for discontinuous maps preserving Lebesgue measure

In this paper we use the mixture of topological and measure-theoretic dynamical approaches to consider riddling of invariant sets for some discontinuous maps of compact regions of the plane that preserve two-dimensional Lebesgue measure. We consider maps that are piecewise continuous and with invertible except on a closed zero measure set. We show that riddling is an invariant property that can be used to characterize invariant sets, and prove results that give a non-trivial decomposion of what we call partially riddled invariant sets into smaller invariant sets. For a particular example, a piecewise isometry that arises in signal processing (the overflow oscillation map), we present evidence that the closure of the set of trajectories that accumulate on the discontinuity is fully riddled. This supports a conjecture that there are typically an infinite number of periodic orbits for this system.

Set-valued Markov chains and negative semitrajectories of discretized dynamical systems

Computer simulation of dynamical systems involves a phase space which is the finite set of machine arithmetic. Rounding state values of the continuous system to this grid yields a spatially discrete dynamical system, often with different dynamical behaviour. Discretization of an invertible smooth system gives a system with set-valued negative semitrajectories. As the grid is refined, asymptotic behaviour of the semitrajectories follows probabilistic laws which correspond to a set-valued Markov chain, whose transition probabilities can be explicitly calculated. The results are illustrated for two-dimensional dynamical systems obtained by discretization of fractional linear transformations of the unit disc in the complex plane.

Spatial distribution of benthic microalgae on coral reefs determined by remote sensing

Understanding the ecological role of benthic microalgae, a highly productive component of coral reef ecosystems, requires information on their spatial distribution. The spatial extent of benthic microalgae on Heron Reef (southern Great Barrier Reef, Australia) was mapped using data from the Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper sensor. integrated with field measurements of sediment chlorophyll concentration and reflectance. Field-measured sediment chlorophyll concentrations. 2 ranging from 23-1.153 mg chl a m(2), were classified into low, medium, and high concentration classes (1-170, 171-290, and > 291 mg chl a m(-2)) using a K-means clustering algorithm. The mapping process assumed that areas in the Thematic Mapper image exhibiting similar reflectance levels in red and blue bands would correspond to areas of similar chlorophyll a levels. Regions of homogenous reflectance values corresponding to low, medium, and high chlorophyll levels were identified over the reef sediment zone by applying a standard image classification algorithm to the Thematic Mapper image. The resulting distribution map revealed large-scale ( > 1 km 2) patterns in chlorophyll a levels throughout the sediment zone of Heron Reef. Reef-wide estimates of chlorophyll a distribution indicate that benthic Microalgae may constitute up to 20% of the total benthic chlorophyll a at Heron Reef. and thus contribute significantly to total primary productivity on the reef.

Spatial structure and habitat variation in a grasshopper hybrid zone

A hybrid zone between the grasshoppers Chorthippus brunneus and C. jacobsi (Orthoptera: Acrididae) in northern Spain has been analyzed for variation in morphology and ecology. These species are readily distinguished by the number of stridulatory pegs on the hind femur. Both sexes are fully winged and inhabit disturbed habitats throughout the study area. We develop a maximum-likelihood approach to fitting a two-dimensional cline to geographical variation in quantitative traits and for estimating associations of population mean with local habitat. This method reveals a cline in peg number approximately 30 km south of the Picos de Europa Mountains that shows substantial deviations in population mean compared with the expectations of simple tension zone models. The inclusion of variation in local vegetation in the model explains a significant proportion of the residual variation in peg number, indicating that habitat-genotype associations contribute to the observed spatial pattern. However, this association is weak, and a number of populations continue to show strong deviations in mean even after habitat is included in the final model. These outliers may be the result of long-distance colonization of sites distant from the cline center or may be due to a patchy pattern of initial contact during postglacial expansion. As well as contrasting with the smooth hybrid zones described for Chorthippus parallelus, this situation also contrasts with the mosaic hybrid zones observed in Gryllus crickets and in parts of the hybrid zone between Bombina toad species, where habitat-genotype associations account for substantial amounts of among-site variation.

Mapping glider habitat in dry eucalypt forests for Montreal Process indicator 1.1: Fragmentation of forest types

Accurate habitat mapping is critical to landscape ecological studies such as required for developing and testing Montreal Process indicator 1.1e, fragmentation of forest types. This task poses a major challenge to remote sensing, especially in mixedspecies, variable-age forests such as dry eucalypt forests of subtropical eastern Australia. In this paper, we apply an innovative approach that uses a small section of one-metre resolution airborne data to calibrate a moderate spatial resolution model (30 m resolution; scale 1:50 000) based on Landsat Thematic Mapper data to estimate canopy structural properties in St Marys State Forest, near Maryborough, south-eastern Queensland. The approach applies an image-processing model that assumes each image pixel is significantly larger than individual tree crowns and gaps to estimate crown-cover percentage, stem density and mean crown diameter. These parameters were classified into three discrete habitat classes to match the ecology of four exudivorous arboreal species (yellowbellied glider Petaurus australis, sugar glider P. breviceps, squirrel glider P. norfolcensis , and feathertail glider Acrobates pygmaeus), and one folivorous arboreal marsupial, the greater glider Petauroides volans. These species were targeted due to the known ecological preference for old trees with hollows, and differences in their home range requirements. The overall mapping accuracy, visually assessed against transects (n = 93) interpreted from a digital orthophoto and validated in the field, was 79% (KHAT statistic = 0.72). The KHAT statistic serves as an indicator of the extent that the percentage correct values of the error matrix are due to ‘true’ agreement verses ‘chance’ agreement. This means that we are able to reliably report on the effect of habitat loss on target species, especially those with a large home range size (e.g. yellow-bellied glider). However, the classified habitat map failed to accurately capture the spatial patterning (e.g. patch size and shape) of stands with a trace or sub-dominance of senescent trees. This outcome makes the reporting of the effects of habitat fragmentation more problematic, especially for species with a small home range size (e.g. feathertail glider). With further model refinement and validation, however, this moderateresolution approach offers an important, cost eff e c t i v e advancement in mapping the age of dry eucalypt forests in the region.

Prediction of outcomes in hypertensive patients with suspected coronary disease

Stress echocardiography has been shown to improve the diagnosis of coronary artery disease in the presence of hypertension, but its value in prognostic evaluation is unclear. We sought to determine whether stress echocardiography could be used to predict mortality in 2363 patients with hypertension, who were followed for up to 10 years (mean 4.0+/-1.8) for death and revascularization. Stress echocardiograms were normal in 1483 patients (63%), 16% had resting left ventricular (LV) dysfunction alone, and 21% had ischemia. Abnormalities were confined to one territory in 489 patients (21%) and to multiple territories in 365 patients (15%). Cardiac death was less frequent among the patients able to exercise than among those undergoing dobutamine echocardiography (4% versus 7%, P<0.001). The risk of death in patients with a negative stress echocardiogram was <1% per year. Ischemia identified by stress echocardiography was an independent predictor of mortality in those able to exercise (hazard ratio 2.21, 95% confidence intervals 1.10 to 4.43, P=0.0001) as well as those undergoing dobutamine echo (hazard ratio 2.39, 95% confidence intervals 1.53 to 3.75, P=0.0001); other predictors were age, heart failure, resting LV dysfunction, and the Duke treadmill score. In stepwise models replicating the sequence of clinical evaluation, the results of stress echocardiography added prognostic power to models based on clinical and stress-testing variables. Thus, the results of stress echocardiography are an independent predictor of cardiac death in hypertensive patients with known or suspected coronary artery disease, incremental to clinical risks and exercise results.