Production under uncertainty and choice under uncertainty in the emergence of generalized expected utility theory

This paper presents a personal view of the interaction between the analysis of choice under uncertainty and the analysis of production under uncertainty. Interest in the foundations of the theory of choice under uncertainty was stimulated by applications of expected utility theory such as the Sandmo model of production under uncertainty. This interest led to the development of generalized models including rank-dependent expected utility theory. In turn, the development of generalized expected utility models raised the question of whether such models could be used in the analysis of applied problems such as those involving production under uncertainty. Finally, the revival of the state-contingent approach led to the recognition of a fundamental duality between choice problems and production problems.

An economic evaluation of plasma production via erythroplasmapheresis and whole blood collection

This paper presents cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) of plasma collection via two alternative methods: whole blood collection (WBC) and erythroplasmapheresis collection (EPC). The objective of the study is to provide an answer to the question 'What is the least-cost method of plasma production'. This question is answered, both from the viewpoint of the blood collection agency (using financial CEA) and from that of 'society' as a whole (using economic CEA). We employ detailed financial data and economic survey data for collections made by a blood collection agency and to WBC and EPC donors in Brisbane, Australia. The results indicate that, despite the superior yield provided by EPC, WBC is actually more cost-effective. This result is robust to thorough sensitivity analysis and arises regardless of whether an economic or financial perspective is taken. We conclude that, ceteris paribus, the cost of recruiting new plasma donors would need to be quite substantial for marginal investments in EPC to be considered cost-effective. Crown Copyright (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analysis of steady-state heat transfer through mid-crustal vertical cracks with upward throughflow in hydrothermal systems

We conduct a theoretical analysis of steady-state heat transfer problems through mid-crustal vertical cracks with upward throughflow in hydrothermal systems. In particular, we derive analytical solutions for both the far field and near field of the system. In order to investigate the contribution of the forced advection to the total temperature of the system, two concepts, namely the critical Peclet number and the critical permeability of the system, have been presented and discussed in this paper. The analytical solution for the far field of the system indicates that if the pore-fluid pressure gradient in the crust is lithostatic, the critical permeability of the system can be used to determine whether or not the contribution of the forced advection to the total temperature of the system is negligible. Otherwise, the critical Peclet number should be used. For a crust of moderate thickness, the critical permeability is of the order of magnitude of 10(-20) m(2), under which heat conduction is the overwhelming mechanism to transfer heat energy, even though the pore-fluid pressure gradient in the crust is lithostatic. Furthermore, the lower bound analytical solution for the near field of the system demonstrates that the permeable vertical cracks in the middle crust can efficiently transfer heat energy from the lower crust to the upper crust of the Earth. Copyright (C) 2002 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

Effect of shear stress on expression of a recombinant protein by Chinese hamster ovary cells

A flow chamber was used to impart a steady laminar shear stress on a recombinant Chinese hamster ovary (CHO) cell line expressing human growth hormone (hGH). The cells were subjected to shear stress ranging from 0.005 to 0.80 N m(-2). The effect of shear stress on the cell specific glucose uptake, cell specific hGH, and lactate productivity rates were calculated. No morphological changes to the cells were observed over the range of shear stresses examined. When the cells were subjected to 0.10 N m(-2) shear in protein-free media without Pluronic F-68, recombinant protein production ceased with no change in cell morphology, whereas control cultures were expressing hGH at 0.35 mug/10(6) cells/h. Upon addition of the shear protectants, Pluronic F-68 (0.2% [w/v]) or fetal bovine serum (1.0% [v/v] FBS), the productivity of the cells was restored. The effect of increasing shear stress on the cells in protein-free medium containing Pluronic F-68 was also investigated. Cell specific metabolic rates were calculated for cells under shear stress and for no-shear control cultures performed in parallel, with shear stress rates expressed as a percentage of those obtained for control cultures. Upon increasing shear from 0.005 to 0.80 N m(-2), the cell specific hGH productivity decreased from 100% at 0.005 N m(-2) to 49% at 0.80 N m(-2) relative to the no-shear control. A concurrent increase in the glucose uptake rate from 115% at 0.01 N m(-2) to 142% at 0.80 N m(-2), and decreased lactate productivity from 92% to 50%, revealed a change in the yield of products from glucose compared with the static control. It was shown that shear stress, at sublytic levels in medium containing Pluronic F-68, could decrease hGH specific productivity. (C) 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Indirect certainty equivalents for the firm facing price and production uncertainty

Producer decisionmaking under uncertainty is characterized using indirect objective functions. The characterization is for the class of producers with continuous and nondecreasing preferences over stochastic incomes who face both price and production uncertainty. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Incorporation of bovine dry blood plasma into biscuit flour for the production of pasta

Spray-dried blood plasma (DBP) (10.9 g/100 g [w/w] nitrogen) was added to medium-protein biscuit flour (1.4 g/100 g N) during pasta manufacture. High-protein durum semolina (2.0 g/100 g N) Was used to produce the control pasta. Sensory data indicated that the addition of DBP produced pasta with significantly better colour intensity and acceptability. aroma intensity, flaN our intensity. textural strength, texture acceptability, aftertaste intensity, aftertaste acceptability. and overall acceptability The DBP/biscuit flour formulation that gave the optimum balance between pasta protein content and organoleptic acceptability contained 2.2 g/100 g DBP. A higher content of DBP resulted in increased protein levels, but these pasta formulations, ere less acceptable organoleptically. (C) 2002 Swiss Society of Food Science and Technology. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bioprocess-centered molecular design (BMD) for the efficient production of an interfacially active peptide

The efficient expression and purification of an interfacially active peptide (mLac21) was achieved by using bioprocess-centered molecular design (BMD), wherein key bioprocess considerations are addressed during the initial molecular biology work. The 21 amino acid mLac21 peptide sequence is derived from the lac repressor protein and is shown to have high affinity for the oil-water interface, causing a substantial reduction in interfacial tension following adsorption. The DNA coding for the peptide sequence was cloned into a modified pET-31(b) vector to permit the expression of mLac21 as a fusion to ketosteroid isomerase (KSI). Rational iterative molecular design, taking into account the need for a scaleable bioprocess flowsheet, led to a simple and efficient bioprocess yielding mLac21 at 86% purity following ion exchange chromatography (and >98% following chromatographic polishing). This case study demonstrates that it is possible to produce acceptably pure peptide for potential commodity applications using common scaleable bioprocess unit operations. Moreover, it is shown that BMD is a powerful strategy that can be deployed to reduce bioseparation complexity. (C) 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A history of agricultural production at Neolithic Catalhoyuk East, Turkey

A history of agricultural production is proposed for Neolithic Catalhoyuk East, central Turkey, using archaeobotanical, environmental, population and settlement studies. In the aceramic early phase of site occupation, intensive strategies developed as changes in population and environment caused stress on food supplies produced within a limited territory. Food exchange may have been part of the social means by which Catalhoyuk and nearby contemporary settlements amalgamated into the single site of the main occupation phase. Population change, inherited territories and continuing environmental impact led to the development of an extensive system of agriculture using widely dispersed dry soils, with an intensive regime applied to nearby alluvial soils. Social tensions caused by the evolution of this system contributed to the fissioning of the site by the Chalcolithic.

Fractionation of follicle stimulating hormone charge isoforms in their native form by preparative electrophoresis technology

Complex glycoprotein biopharmaceuticals, such as follicle stimulating hormone (FSH), erythropoietin and tissue plasminogen activator consist of a range of charge isoforms due to the extent of sialic acid capping of the glycoprotein glycans. Sialic acid occupies the terminal position on the oligosaccharide chain, masking the penultimate sugar residue, galactose from recognition and uptake by the hepatocyte asialoglycoprotein receptor. It is therefore well established that the more acidic charge isoforms of glycoprotein biopharmaceuticals have higher in vivo potencies than those of less acidic isoforms due to their longer serum half-life. Current strategies for manipulating glycoprotein charge isoform profile involve cell engineering or altering bioprocesss parameters to optimise expression of more acidic or basic isoforms, rather than downstream separation of isoforms. A method for the purification of a discrete range of bioactive recombinant human FSH (rhFSH) charge isoforms based on Gradiflow(TM) preparative electrophoresis technology is described. Gradiflow(TM) electrophoresis is scaleable, and incorporation into glycoprotein biopharmaceutical production bioprocesses as a potential final step facilitates the production of biopharmaceutical preparations of improved in vivo potency. (C) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Pectinase production by solid fermentation from Aspergillus niger by a new prescription experiment

The Ordos Plateau in China is covered with up to 300,000 ha of peashrub (Caragana) which is the dominant natural vegetation and ideal for fodder production. To exploit peashrub fodder, it is crucially important to optimize the culture conditions, especially culture substrate to produce pectinase complex. In this study, a new prescription process was developed. The process, based on a uniform experimental design, first optimizes the solid substrate and second, after incubation, applies two different temperature treatments (30 degrees C for the first 30 h and 23 degrees C for the second 42 h) in the fermentation process. A multivariate regression analysis is applied to a number of independent variables (water, wheat bran, rice dextrose, ammonium sulfate, and Tween 80) to develop a predictive model of pectinase activity. A second-degree polynomial model is developed which accounts for an excellent proportion of the explained variation (R-2 = 97.7%). Using unconstrained mathematical programming, an optimized substrate prescription for pectinase production is subsequently developed. The mathematical analysis revealed that the optimal formula for pectinase production from Aspergillus niger by solid fermentation under the conditions of natural aeration, natural substrate pH (about 6.5), and environmental humidity of 60% is rice dextrose 8%, wheat bran 24%, ammonium sulfate ((NH4)(2)SO4) 6%, and water 61%. Tween 80 was found to have a negative effect on the production of pectinase in solid substrate. With this substrate prescription, pectinase produced by solid fermentation of A. niger reached 36.3IU/(gDM). Goats fed on the pectinase complex obtain an incremental increase of 0.47 kg day(-1) during the initial 25 days of feeding, which is a very promising new feeding prospect for the local peashrub. It is concluded that the new formula may be very useful for the sustainable development of and and semiarid pastures such as those of the Ordos Plateau. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Chinese hamster ovary cells produce sufficient recombinant insulin-like growth factor I to support growth in serum-free medium - Serum-free growth of IGF-I producing CHO cells

Insulin-like growth factor I has similar mitogenic effects to insulin, a growth factor required by most cells in culture, and it can replace insulin in serum-free formulations for some cells. Chinese Hamster Ovary cells grow well in serum-free medium with insulin and transferrin as the only exogenous growth factors. An alternative approach to addition of exogenous growth factors to serum-free medium is transfection of host cells with growth factor-encoding genes, permitting autocrine growth. Taking this approach, we constructed an IGF-I heterologous gene driven by the cytomegalovirus promoter, introduced it into Chinese Hamster Ovary cells and examined the growth characteristics of Insulin-like growth factor I-expressing clonal cells in the absence of the exogenous factor. The transfected cells secreted up to 500 ng/10(6) cells/day of mature Insulin-like growth factor I into the conditioned medium and as a result they grew autonomously in serum-free medium containing transferrin as the only added growth factor. This growth-stimulating effect, observed under both small and large scale culture conditions, was maximal since no further improvement was observed in the presence of exogenous insulin.

Separation and hedging results with state-contingent production

A state-contingent model of production under uncertainty is developed and compared with more traditional models of production under uncertainty. Producer behaviour with both production and price risk, in the presence and in the absence of futures and forward markets, is analysed in this state-contingent framework. Conditions for the optimal hedge to be positive or negative are derived. We also show that, under plausible conditions, a risk-averse producer facing price uncertainty and the ability to hedge price risk will never willingly adopt a nonstochastic technology. New separation results, which hold in the presence of both price and production risk, are then developed. These separation results generalize Townsend's spanning results by reducing the number of necessary forward markets by one.

Forecasting regional crop production using SOI phases: an example for the Australian peanut industry

Using peanuts as an example, a generic methodology is presented to forward-estimate regional crop production and associated climatic risks based on phases of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Yield fluctuations caused by a highly variable rainfall environment are of concern to peanut processing and marketing bodies. The industry could profitably use forecasts of likely production to adjust their operations strategically. Significant, physically based lag-relationships exist between an index of ocean/atmosphere El Nino/Southern Oscillation phenomenon and future rainfall in Australia and elsewhere. Combining knowledge of SOI phases in November and December with output from a dynamic simulation model allows the derivation of yield probability distributions based on historic rainfall data. This information is available shortly after planting a crop and at least 3-5 months prior to harvest. The study shows that in years when the November-December SOI phase is positive there is an 80% chance of exceeding average district yields. Conversely, in years when the November-December SOI phase is either negative or rapidly falling there is only a 5% chance of exceeding average district yields, but a 95% chance of below average yields. This information allows the industry to adjust strategically for the expected volume of production. The study shows that simulation models can enhance SOI signals contained in rainfall distributions by discriminating between useful and damaging rainfall events. The methodology can be applied to other industries and regions.

A stochastic frontier production function with flexible risk properties

This paper considers a stochastic frontier production function which has additive, heteroscedastic error structure. The model allows for negative or positive marginal production risks of inputs, as originally proposed by Just and Pope (1978). The technical efficiencies of individual firms in the sample are a function of the levels of the input variables in the stochastic frontier, in addition to the technical inefficiency effects. These are two features of the model which are not exhibited by the commonly used stochastic frontiers with multiplicative error structures, An empirical application is presented using cross-sectional data on Ethiopian peasant farmers. The null hypothesis of no technical inefficiencies of production among these farmers is accepted. Further, the flexible risk models do not fit the data on peasant farmers as well as the traditional stochastic frontier model with multiplicative error structure.