120 resultados para PROPENSITY SCORE METHODS


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This paper presents results on the simulation of the solid state sintering of copper wires using Monte Carlo techniques based on elements of lattice theory and cellular automata. The initial structure is superimposed onto a triangular, two-dimensional lattice, where each lattice site corresponds to either an atom or vacancy. The number of vacancies varies with the simulation temperature, while a cluster of vacancies is a pore. To simulate sintering, lattice sites are picked at random and reoriented in terms of an atomistic model governing mass transport. The probability that an atom has sufficient energy to jump to a vacant lattice site is related to the jump frequency, and hence the diffusion coefficient, while the probability that an atomic jump will be accepted is related to the change in energy of the system as a result of the jump, as determined by the change in the number of nearest neighbours. The jump frequency is also used to relate model time, measured in Monte Carlo Steps, to the actual sintering time. The model incorporates bulk, grain boundary and surface diffusion terms and includes vacancy annihilation on the grain boundaries. The predictions of the model were found to be consistent with experimental data, both in terms of the microstructural evolution and in terms of the sintering time. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

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Injury to endothelial calls is thought to be important to the development of the vascular lesion of chronic rejection. It was the aim of this study to develop a semiquantitative method to assess endothelial injury in arterial grafts and to document the injury produced by cold storage preservation and additional warm ischaemia. Twelve- and 24-h cold preservation of rat aortic segments, together with an additional 1 h of warm ischaemia, were assessed. Electron micrographs of representative endothelial cells were scored for cytoplasmic, nuclear and mitochondrial injury. The overall injury score was obtained by addition of the individual scores. Storage for up to 24 h in University of Wisconsin (UW) and Terasaki did not produce any injury. Twenty-four hours of storage in Euro-Collins resulted in endothelial cell death. Injury occurred after 12 h of storage in Ross, Collins and normal saline, and the injury increased following 24 h of storage. One hour of warm ischaemia did not increase the injury. Injury to endothelial cells varies with the preservation solution used and the time of cold storage, so that both the type of solution and the storage time should be taken into account in clinical studies looking at the influence of cold ischaemia time and graft outcome.

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Introduction Bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) is a useful field measure to estimate total body water (TBW). No prediction formulae have been developed or validated against a reference method in patients with pancreatic cancer. The aim of this study was to assess the agreement between three prediction equations for the estimation of TBW in cachectic patients with pancreatic cancer. Methods Resistance was measured at frequencies of 50 and 200 kHz in 18 outpatients (10 males and eight females, age 70.2 +/- 11.8 years) with pancreatic cancer from two tertiary Australian hospitals. Three published prediction formulae were used to calculate TBW - TBWs developed in surgical patients, TBWca-uw and TBWca-nw developed in underweight and normal weight patients with end-stage cancer. Results There was no significant difference in the TBW estimated by the three prediction equations - TBWs 32.9 +/- 8.3 L, TBWca-nw 36.3 +/- 7.4 L, TBWca-uw 34.6 +/- 7.6 L. At a population level, there is agreement between prediction of TBW in patients with pancreatic cancer estimated from the three equations. The best combination of low bias and narrow limits of agreement was observed when TBW was estimated from the equation developed in the underweight cancer patients relative to the normal weight cancer patients. When no established BIA prediction equation exists, practitioners should utilize an equation developed in a population with similar critical characteristics such as diagnosis, weight loss, body mass index and/or age. Conclusions Further research is required to determine the accuracy of the BIA prediction technique against a reference method in patients with pancreatic cancer.

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We describe remarkable success in controlling dengue vectors, Aedes aegypti (L.) and Aedes albopictus (Skuse), in 6 communes with 11,675 households and 49,647 people in the northern provinces of Haiphong, Hung Yen, and Nam Dinh in Vietnam. The communes were selected for high-frequency use of large outdoor concrete tanks and wells. These were found to be the source of 49.6-98.4% of Ae. aegypti larvae, which were amenable to treatment with local Mesocyclops, mainly M. woutersi Van der Velde, M. aspericornis (Daday) and M. thermocyclopoides Harada. Knowledge, attitude, and practice surveys were performed to determine whether the communities viewed dengue and dengue hemorrhagic fever as a serious health threat; to determine their knowledge of the etiology, attitudes, and practices regarding control methods including Mesocyclops; and to determine their receptivity to various information methods. On the basis of the knowledge, attitude, and practice data, the community-based dengue control program comprised a system of local leaders, health volunteer teachers, and schoolchildren, supported by health professionals. Recycling of discards for economic gain was enhanced, where appropriate, and this, plus 37 clean-up campaigns, removed small containers unsuitable for Mesocyclops treatment. A previously successful eradication at Phan Boi village (Hung Yen province) was extended to 7 other villages forming Di Su commune (1,750 households) in the current study. Complete control was also achieved in Nghia Hiep (Hung Yen province) and in Xuan Phong (Nam Dinh province); control efficacy was greater than or equal to 99.7% in the other 3 communes (Lac Vien in Haiphong, Nghia Dong, and Xuan Kien in Nam Dinh). Although tanks and wells were the key container types of Ae. aegypti productivity, discarded materials were the source of 51% of the standing crop of Ae. albopictus. Aedes albopictus larvae were eliminated from the 3 Nam Dinh communes, and 86-98% control was achieved in the other 3 communes. Variable dengue attack rates made the clinical and serological comparison of control and untreated communes problematic, but these data indicate that clinical surveillance by itself is inadequate to monitor dengue transmission.

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Background: Alcohol consumption has beneficial effects on mortality which are mainly due to reduction in cardiovascular disease. These are believed to be due, at least in part, to the increase in plasma high-density lipoprotein (HDL) which is associated with alcohol consumption. It has been proposed that ADH3 genotype modifies the relationships between alcohol intake and cardiovascular disease by altering the HDL response to alcohol. The aim of this paper was to test for effects of ADH2 and ADH3 genotypes on the response of HDL components to habitual alcohol consumption. Methods: Adult male and female subjects were genotyped for ADH2 and ADH3; and plasma HDL cholesterol, apolipoprotein A-I, and apolipoprotein A-II were measured. Nine hundred one subjects had both ADH2 and ADH3 genotypes and HDL cholesterol results, while 753 had both genotypes and all three lipid results. The effect of alcohol intake on the three measured HDL components, and a factor score derived from them, was estimated for each of the ADH2 and ADH3 genotype groups. Results: All the measured components of HDL increased with increasing alcohol consumption over the range of intakes studied, 0-4 drinks per day. There were no significant interactions between alcohol consumption and ADH2 or ADH3 genotypes. Conclusions: The concept that alcohol dehydrogenase genotype and alcohol metabolic rate modify the effects of alcohol on plasma HDL concentration is not supported by our results.

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There has been a resurgence of interest in the mean trace length estimator of Pahl for window sampling of traces. The estimator has been dealt with by Mauldon and Zhang and Einstein in recent publications. The estimator is a very useful one in that it is non-parametric. However, despite some discussion regarding the statistical distribution of the estimator, none of the recent works or the original work by Pahl provide a rigorous basis for the determination a confidence interval for the estimator or a confidence region for the estimator and the corresponding estimator of trace spatial intensity in the sampling window. This paper shows, by consideration of a simplified version of the problem but without loss of generality, that the estimator is in fact the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) and that it can be considered essentially unbiased. As the MLE, it possesses the least variance of all estimators and confidence intervals or regions should therefore be available through application of classical ML theory. It is shown that valid confidence intervals can in fact be determined. The results of the work and the calculations of the confidence intervals are illustrated by example. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

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A number of authors concerned with the analysis of rock jointing have used the idea that the joint areal or diametral distribution can be linked to the trace length distribution through a theorem attributed to Crofton. This brief paper seeks to demonstrate why Crofton's theorem need not be used to link moments of the trace length distribution captured by scan line or areal mapping to the moments of the diametral distribution of joints represented as disks and that it is incorrect to do so. The valid relationships for areal or scan line mapping between all the moments of the trace length distribution and those of the joint size distribution for joints modeled as disks are recalled and compared with those that might be applied were Crofton's theorem assumed to apply. For areal mapping, the relationship is fortuitously correct but incorrect for scan line mapping.

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There are several competing methods commonly used to solve energy grained master equations describing gas-phase reactive systems. When it comes to selecting an appropriate method for any particular problem, there is little guidance in the literature. In this paper we directly compare several variants of spectral and numerical integration methods from the point of view of computer time required to calculate the solution and the range of temperature and pressure conditions under which the methods are successful. The test case used in the comparison is an important reaction in combustion chemistry and incorporates reversible and irreversible bimolecular reaction steps as well as isomerizations between multiple unimolecular species. While the numerical integration of the ODE with a stiff ODE integrator is not the fastest method overall, it is the fastest method applicable to all conditions.

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PURPOSE: To determine the effects of aggressive lipid lowering on markers of ischemia, resistance vessel function, atherosclerotic burden, and Symptom status in patients with symptomatic coronary artery disease. METHODS: Sixty consecutive patients with coronary artery disease that was unsuitable for revascularization were assigned randomly to either usual therapy of lipids for patients with a low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol target level <116 mg/dL, or to a, more aggressive lipid-lowering strategy involving up to 80 mg/d of atorvastatin, with a target LDL cholesterol level <77 mg/dL. The extent and severity of inducible ischemia (by dobutamine echocardiography), vascular function.(brachial artery reactivity), atheroma burden (carotid intima-media thickness), and symptom status were evaluated blindly at baseline and after 12 weeks of treatment. RESULTS: After 12 weeks of treatment, patients in the aggressive therapy group had a significantly greater decrease in mean (+/- SD) LDL cholesterol level than those in the usual care group (29 +/- 38 mg/dL vs. 7 +/- 24 mg/dL, P = 0.03). Patients in the aggressive therapy group had a reduction in the number of ischemic wall segments (mean between-group difference of 1.3; 95% confidence interval: 0.1 to 2.0; P = 0.04), flow-mediated dilatation (mean between-group difference of 5.9%; 95% confidence interval: 2.5% to 9.4%; P = 0.001), and angina score after 12 weeks. There were no significant changes in atherosclerotic burden in either group. CONCLUSION: Patients with symptomatic coronary artery disease who are treated with aggressive lipid lowering have improvement of symptom status and ischemia that appears to reflect improved vascular function but not atheroma burden. Am J Med. 2003;114:445-453. (C) 2003 by Excerpta Medica Inc.

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Background Patients with known or suspected coronary disease are often investigated to facilitate risk assessment. We sought to examine the cost-effectiveness of strategies based on exercise echocardiography and exercise electrocardiography. Methods and results We studied 7656 patients undergoing exercise testing; of whom half underwent exercise echocardiography. Risk was defined with the Duke treadmill score for those undergoing exercise electrocardiography alone, and by the extent of ischaemia by exercise echocardiography. Cox proportional hazards models, risk adjusted for pretest likelihood of coronary artery disease, were used to estimate time to cardiac death or myocardial infarction. Costs (including diagnostic and revascularisation procedures, hospitalisations, and events) were calculated, inflation-corrected to year 2000 using Medicare trust fund rates and discounted at a rate of 5%. A decision model was employed to assess the marginal cost effectiveness (cost/life year saved) of exercise echo compared with exercise electrocardiography. Exercise echocardiography identified more patients as low-risk (51% vs 24%, p<0.001), and fewer as intermediate- (27% vs 51%, p<0.001) and high-risk (22% vs 4%); survival was greater in low- and intermediate- risk and less in high-risk patients. Although initial procedural costs and revascularisation costs (in intermediate- high risk patients) were greater, exercise echocardiography was associated with a greater incremental life expectancy (0.2 years) and a lower use of additional diagnostic procedures when compared with exercise electrocardiography (especially in lower risk patients). Using decision analysis, exercise echocardiography (Euro 2615/life year saved) was more cost effective than exercise electrocardiography. Conclusion Exercise echocardiography may enhance cost-effectiveness for the detection and management of at risk patients with known or suspected coronary disease. (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd on behalf of The European Society of Cardiology.

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Background: Glucose-insulin-potassium (GIK) infusion improves cardiac function and outcome during acute ischaemia. Objective: To determine whether GIK infusion benefits patients with chronic ischaemic left ventricular dysfunction, and if so whether this is related to the presence and nature of viable myocardium. Methods: 30 patients with chronic ischaemic left ventricular dysfunction had dobutamine echocardiography and were given a four hour infusion of GIK. Segmental responses were quantified by improvement in wall motion score index (WMSI) and peak systolic velocity using tissue Doppler. Global responses were assessed by left ventricular volume and ejection fraction, measured using a three dimensional reconstruction. Myocardial perfusion was determined in 15 patients using contrast echocardiography. Results: WMSI (mean (SD)) improved with dobutamine (from 1.8 (0.4) to 1.6 (0.4), p < 0.001) and with GIK (from 1.8 (0.4) to 1.7 (0.4) p < 0.001); there was a similar increment for both. Improvement in wall motion score with GIK was observed in 55% of the 62 segments classed as viable by dobutamine echocardiography, and in 5% of 162 classed as non-viable. There was an increment in peak systolic velocity after both doputamine echocardiography (from 2.5 (1.8) to 3.2 (2.2) cm/s, p < 0.01) and GIK (from 3.0 (1.6) to 3.5 (17) cm/s, p < 0.001). The GlK effects were not mediated by changes in pulse, mean arterial pressure, lactate, or catecholamines, nor did they correlate with myocardial perfusion. End systolic volume improved after GlK (p = 0.03), but only in 25 patients who had viable myocardium on dobutom ne echocardiography. Conclusions: In patients with viable myocardium and chronic left ventricular dysfunction, GlK improves wall motion score, myocardial velocity, and end systolic volume, independent of effects on haemodynamics or catecholamines. The response to GlK is observed in areas of normal and abnormal perfusion assessed by contrast echocardiography.

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The aim of this study was to compare accumulated oxygen deficit data derived using two different exercise protocols with the aim of producing a less time-consuming test specifically for use with athletes. Six road and four track male endurance cyclists performed two series of cycle ergometer tests. The first series involved five 10 min sub-maximal cycle exercise bouts, a (V) over dotO(2peak) test and a 115% (V) over dotO(2peak) test. Data from these tests were used to estimate the accumulated oxygen deficit according to the calculations of Medbo et al. (1988). In the second series of tests, participants performed a 15 min incremental cycle ergometer test followed, 2 min later, by a 2 min variable resistance test in which they completed as much work as possible while pedalling at a constant rate. Analysis revealed that the accumulated oxygen deficit calculated from the first series of tests was higher (P< 0.02) than that calculated from the second series: 52.3 +/- 11.7 and 43.9 +/- 6.4 ml . kg(-1), respectively (mean +/- s). Other significant differences between the two protocols were observed for (V) over dot O-2peak, total work and maximal heart rate; all were higher during the modified protocol (P