RWMODEL II: Computer simulation of the Rescorla-Wagner model of Pavlovian conditioning

RWMODEL II simulates the Rescorla-Wagner model of Pavlovian conditioning. It is written in Delphi and runs under Windows 3.1 and Windows 95. The program was designed for novice and expert users and can be employed in teaching, as well as in research. It is user friendly and requires a minimal level of computer literacy but is sufficiently flexible to permit a wide range of simulations. It allows the display of empirical data, against which predictions from the model can be validated.

Attachment style, assertive communication, and safer-sex behavior

This research tested the proposition that the effect of attachment security on safer-sex practice may be mediated by communication patterns. One hundred eighty-five undergraduate students completed questionnaire measures of attachment, assertiveness, and attitudes to communication about AIDS. Eight weeks later, they reported on their practice of safer sex in the period since the first testing session. Hierarchical regressions showed that at Step 1, anxiety about relationships (a measure of insecure attachment) was associated with less safer-sex practice, for all outcome measures. Attitudes to communication about AIDS added to the prediction of general reports of safer-sex practice: in line with the mediational model, anxiety about relationships became unimportant as a predictor when communication variables were included. Communication variables failed to add to the prediction of safer sex on the most recent encounter, and both anxiety about relationships and attitudes to communication about AIDS predicted condom use. Some gender differences in patterns of prediction were noted. The results are discussed in terms of attachment style and its links with the negotiation of sexual practice and relationship issues.

Class attainment among British men - A multivariate extension of the CASMIN model of intergenerational class mobility

The CASMIN Project is arguably the most influential contemporary study of class mobility in the world. However, CASMIN results with respect to weak vertical status effects on class mobility have been extensively criticized. Drawing on arguments about how to model vertical mobility, Hout and Hauser (1992) show that class mobility is strongly determined by vertical socioeconomic differences. This paper extends these arguments by estimating the CASMIN model while explicitly controlling for individual determinants of socioeconomic attainment. Using the 1972 Oxford Mobility Data and the 1979 and 1983 British Election Studies, the paper employs mixed legit models to show how individual socioeconomic factors and categorical differences between classes shape intergenerational mobility. The findings highlight the multidimensionality of class mobility and its irreducibility to vertical movement up and down a stratification hierarchy.

Determining forest structural attributes using an inverted geometric-optical model in mixed eucalypt forests, Southeast Queensland, Australia

The Montreal Process indicators are intended to provide a common framework for assessing and reviewing progress toward sustainable forest management. The potential of a combined geometrical-optical/spectral mixture analysis model was assessed for mapping the Montreal Process age class and successional age indicators at a regional scale using Landsat Thematic data. The project location is an area of eucalyptus forest in Emu Creek State Forest, Southeast Queensland, Australia. A quantitative model relating the spectral reflectance of a forest to the illumination geometry, slope, and aspect of the terrain surface and the size, shape, and density, and canopy size. Inversion of this model necessitated the use of spectral mixture analysis to recover subpixel information on the fractional extent of ground scene elements (such as sunlit canopy, shaded canopy, sunlit background, and shaded background). Results obtained fron a sensitivity analysis allowed improved allocation of resources to maximize the predictive accuracy of the model. It was found that modeled estimates of crown cover projection, canopy size, and tree densities had significant agreement with field and air photo-interpreted estimates. However, the accuracy of the successional stage classification was limited. The results obtained highlight the potential for future integration of high and moderate spatial resolution-imaging sensors for monitoring forest structure and condition. (C) Elsevier Science Inc., 2000.

A model for assembly and activation of the GM-CSF, IL-3 and IL-5 receptors: Insights from activated mutants of the common beta subunit

Granulocyte-macrophage colony stimulating factor (GM-CSF), Interleukin-3 (IL-3) and Interleukin-5 (IL-5) have overlapping, pleiotropic effects on hematopoietic cells, including neutrophils, eosinophils, monocytes and early progenitor cells. The high-affinity receptors for human GM-CSF, IL-3, and IL-5 share a common beta-subunit (h beta(c)), which is essential for signalling and plays a major role in recruiting intracellular signalling molecules. While activation of the cytoplasmic tyrosine kinase JAK2 appears to be the initiating event for signalling, the immediate events that trigger this are still unclear. We have isolated a number of activated mutants of h beta(c), which can be grouped into classes defined by their state of receptor phosphorylation, their requirement for alpha subunit as a cofactor, and their activities in primary cells and cell lines. We discuss these findings with regard to the stoichiometry, activation, and signalling of the normal GM-CSF/IL-3/IL-5 receptor complexes. Specifically, this work has implications for the role of the ligand-specific alpha-subunits in initiating the signalling through the beta-subunit, the role of beta subunit dimerization as a receptor trigger, and the function of receptor tyrosine phosphorylation in generating growth and survival signals. Based on the properties of the activated mutants and the recent structures of erythropoietin receptor (Epo-R) complexes, we propose a model in which (1) activation of h beta(c) can occur via alternative states that differ with respect to stoichiometry and subunit assembly, but which all mediate proliferative responses, and (2) each of the different classes of activated mutants mimics one of these alternative states. (C) 2000 International Society for Experimental Hematology. Published by Elsevier Science Inc.

The role of mobile belts for the longevity of deep cratonic lithosphere: The crumple zone model

Many Archean cratons are surrounded by Proterozoic mobile belts that have experienced episodes of tectonic re-activation over their lifetimes. This suggests that mobile belt lithosphere may be associated with long lived, inherited weakness. It is proposed that the proximity of this weakness can increase the longevity of deep Archean lithosphere by buffering Archean cratons from mantle derived stresses. The physical plausibility of this idea is explored through numerical simulations of mantle convection that include continents and allow for material rheologies that model the combined brittle and ductile behavior of the lithosphere. Within the simulations, the longevity of deep cratonic lithosphere does increase if it is buffered by mobile belts that can fail at relatively low stress levels.

Modeling of hepatic elimination and organ distribution kinetics with the extended convection-dispersion model

The conventional convection-dispersion (also called axial dispersion) model is widely used to interrelate hepatic availability (F) and clearance (Cl) with the morphology and physiology of the liver and to predict effects such as changes in liver blood flow on F and Cl. An extended form of the convection-dispersion model has been developed to adequately describe the outflow concentration-time profiles for vascular markers at both short and long times after bolus injections into perfused livers. The model, based on flux concentration and a convolution of catheters and large vessels, assumes that solute elimination in hepatocytes follows either fast distribution into or radial diffusion in hepatocytes. The model includes a secondary vascular compartment, postulated to be interconnecting sinusoids. Analysis of the mean hepatic transit time (MTT) and normalized variance (CV2) of solutes with extraction showed that the discrepancy between the predictions of MTT and CV2 for the extended and conventional models are essentially identical irrespective of the magnitude of rate constants representing permeability, volume, and clearance parameters, providing that there is significant hepatic extraction. In conclusion, the application of a newly developed extended convection-dispersion model has shown that the unweighted conventional convection-dispersion model can be used to describe the disposition of extracted solutes and, in particular, to estimate hepatic availability and clearance in booth experimental and clinical situations.

High HIV incidence and prevalence among young women in rural South Africa: Developing a cohort for intervention trials

Objective: To measure prevalence and model incidence of HIV infection. Setting: 2013 consecutive pregnant women attending public sector antenatal clinics in 1997 in Hlabisa health district, South Africa. Historical seroprevalence data, 1992-1995. Methods: Serum remaining from syphilis testing was tested anonymously for antibodies to HIV to determine seroprevalence. Two models, allowing for differential mortality between HIV-positive and HIV-negative people, were used. The first used serial seroprevalence data to estimate trends in annual incidence. The second, a maximum likelihood model, took account of changing force of infection and age-dependent risk of infection, to estimate age-specific HIV incidence in 1997. Multiple logistic regression provided adjusted odds ratios (OR) for risk factors for prevalent HIV infection. Results: Estimated annual HIV incidence increased from 4% in 1992/1993 to 10% in 1996/1997. In 1997, highest age-specific incidence was 16% among women aged between 20 and 24 years. in 1997, overall prevalence was 26% (95% confidence interval [CI], 24%-28%) and at 34% was highest among women aged between 20 and 24 years. Young age (<30 years; odds ratio [OR], 2.1; p = .001), unmarried status (OR 2.2; p = .001) and living in less remote parts of the district (OR 1.5; p = .002) were associated with HIV prevalence in univariate analysis. Associations were less strong in multivariate analysis. Partner's migration status was not associated with HIV infection. Substantial heterogeneity of HIV prevalence by clinic was observed (range 17%-31%; test for trend, p = .001). Conclusions: This community is experiencing an explosive HIV epidemic. Young, single women in the more developed parts of the district would form an appropriate cohort to test, and benefit from, interventions such as vaginal microbicides and HIV vaccines.

Level-one highest weight representation of U-q[sl((N)over-cap vertical bar 1)] and Bosonization of the multicomponent Super t-J model

We study the level-one irreducible highest weight representations of the quantum affine superalgebra U-q[sl((N) over cap\1)], and calculate their characters and supercharacters. We obtain bosonized q-vertex operators acting on the irreducible U-q[sl((N) over cap\1)] modules and derive the exchange relations satisfied by the vertex operators. We give the bosonization of the multicomponent super t-J model by using the bosonized vertex operators. (C) 2000 American Institute of Physics. [S0022- 2488(00)00508-9].

A model for adsorption of condensable vapors on nonporous materials

A new isotherm is proposed here for adsorption of condensable vapors and gases on nonporous materials having type II isotherms according to the Brunauer-Deming-Deming-Teller (BDDH) classification. The isotherm combines the recent molecular-continuum model in the multilayer region, with other widely used models for sub-monolayer coverage, some of which satisfy the requirement of a Henry's law asymptote. The model is successfully tested using isotherm data for nitrogen adsorption on nonporous silica, carbon and alumina, as well as benzene and hexane adsorption on nonporous carbon. Based on the data fits, out of several different alternative choices of model for the monolayer region, the Freundlich and the Unilan models are found to be the most successful when combined with the multilayer model to predict the whole isotherm. The hybrid model is consequently applicable over a wide pressure range. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Impact on perinatal mortality of missed opportunities to treat maternal syphilis in rural South Africa: baseline results from a clinic randomized controlled trial

OBJECTIVE To demonstrate the impact on perinatal mortality of inadequate treatment for maternal syphilis despite adequate screening. METHOD In 12 clinics providing antenatal care in Hlabisa, South Africa 1783 pregnant women were screened for syphilis at their first antenatal visit between June and October 1998. Pregnancy outcome was determined among those with syphilis. RESULTS A total of 158 women were diagnosed with syphilis: prevalence 9% (95% CI 8-10%). Mean gestation at first antenatal visit was 24 weeks. Thirty women (19%) received no treatment and 96 (61%) received all three recommended doses of penicillin. Among those receiving at least one dose, mean delay to the first dose was 20 days. Among those fully treated mean delay to treatment completion was 34 days. Pregnancy outcome was known for 142 women (90%) and there were 17 perinatal deaths among 15 women (11%). Eleven of 43 women (26%) who received one or fewer doses of penicillin experienced ii perinatal death whilst only four of 99 women (4%) who received two or more doses of penicillin did so (P = 0.0001). Protection from perinatal death increased with the number of doses of penicillin: linear modelling suggests that one dose reduced the risk by 41%, two doses by 65% and three doses by 79%, compared with no doses. A dose-specific, categorical model confirmed reduction in risk by 79% for all three doses. CONCLUSION Despite effective screening, many pregnant women with syphilis remain inadequately treated, resulting in avoidable perinatal mortality. Delays in starting and finishing treatment, as well as incomplete treatment occur. Near-patient syphilis testing in the antenatal clinic with early treatment could improve treatment of syphilis and reduce perinatal mortality, and a randomized trial to test this is underway.

Projecting mammographic screens

Objective-The purpose of mammographic screening is to reduce mortality from breast cancer. This study describes a method for projecting the number of screens to be performed by a mammographic screening programme, and applies this method in the context of New South Wales, Australia. Method-The total number of mammographic screens was projected as the sum of initial screens and re-screens, and is based on projections of the population, rates of new recruitment, rates of attrition within the programme, and the mix of screening intervals. The baseline scenario involved: 70% participation of women aged 50-69 years, 90% return rate for the second and subsequent re-screens, 5% annual screens (95% biennial screens), and a specified population projection. The results were assessed with respect to variations in these assumptions. Results-The projections were strongly influenced by: the rate of screening of the target age group; the proportion of women re-screened annually; and the rates of attrition within the programme. Although demographic change had a notable effect, there was little difference between different population projections. Standard assumptions about attrition within the programme suggest that the current target participation rates in NSW may not be achieved in the long term. Conclusions-A practical model for projecting mammographic screens for populations is described which is capable of forecasting the number of screens under different scenarios. Implications-Projections of mammographic screens provide important information for the planning and financing of equipment and personnel, and for testing the effects of variations in important operational parameters. Re-screening attrition is an important contributor to screening viability.

Commentary: Using the convection-dispersion model and transit time density functions in the analysis of organ distribution kinetics

The convection-dispersion model and its extended form have been used to describe solute disposition in organs and to predict hepatic availabilities. A range of empirical transit-time density functions has also been used for a similar purpose. The use of the dispersion model with mixed boundary conditions and transit-time density functions has been queried recently by Hisaka and Sugiyanaa in this journal. We suggest that, consistent with soil science and chemical engineering literature, the mixed boundary conditions are appropriate providing concentrations are defined in terms of flux to ensure continuity at the boundaries and mass balance. It is suggested that the use of the inverse Gaussian or other functions as empirical transit-time densities is independent of any boundary condition consideration. The mixed boundary condition solutions of the convection-dispersion model are the easiest to use when linear kinetics applies. In contrast, the closed conditions are easier to apply in a numerical analysis of nonlinear disposition of solutes in organs. We therefore argue that the use of hepatic elimination models should be based on pragmatic considerations, giving emphasis to using the simplest or easiest solution that will give a sufficiently accurate prediction of hepatic pharmacokinetics for a particular application. (C) 2000 Wiley-Liss Inc. and the American Pharmaceutical Association J Pharm Sci 89:1579-1586, 2000.

The anti-tumor activity of IL-12: Mechanisms of innate immunity that are model and dose dependent

IL-12 has been demonstrated to have potent anti-tumor activities in a variety of mouse tumor models, but the relative roles of NK, NKT, and T cells and their effector mechanisms in these responses have not been fully addressed. Using a spectrum of gene-targeted or Ab-treated mice we have shown that for any particular tumor model the effector mechanisms downstream of IL-12 often mimic the natural immune response to that tumor. For example, metastasis of the MHC class I-deficient lymphoma, EL4-S3, was strictly controlled by NK cells using perforin either naturally or following therapy with high-dose IL-12. Intriguingly, in B16F10 and RM-1 tumor models both NK and NKT cells contribute to natural protection from tumor metastasis, In these models, a lower dose of IL-12 or delayed administration of IL-12 dictated a greater relative role of NKT cells in immune protection from tumor metastasis. Overall, both NK and NKT cells can contribute to natural and IL-12-induced immunity against tumors, and the relative role of each population is turner and therapy dependent.