Bayesian analysis of the error correction model

This paper presents a method for estimating the posterior probability density of the cointegrating rank of a multivariate error correction model. A second contribution is the careful elicitation of the prior for the cointegrating vectors derived from a prior on the cointegrating space. This prior obtains naturally from treating the cointegrating space as the parameter of interest in inference and overcomes problems previously encountered in Bayesian cointegration analysis. Using this new prior and Laplace approximation, an estimator for the posterior probability of the rank is given. The approach performs well compared with information criteria in Monte Carlo experiments. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modification-related porosity formation in hypoeutectic aluminum-silicon alloys

A series of aluminum-10 wt pet silicon castings were produced in sand molds to investigate the effect of modification on porosity formation. Modification with individual additions of either strontium or sodium resulted in a statistically significant increase in the level of porosity compared to unmodified castings. The increase in porosity with modification is due to the presence of numerous dispersed pores, which were absent in the unmodified casting. It is proposed that these pores form as a result of differences in size of the aluminum-silicon eutectic grains between unmodified and modified alloys. A geometric model is developed to show how the size of eutectic grains can influence the amount and distribution of porosity. Unlike traditional feeding-based models, which incorporate the effect: of microstructure on permeability, this model considers what happens when liquid is isolated from the riser and can no longer flow. This simple isolation model complements rather than contradicts existing theories on modification-related porosity formation and should be considered in the development of future comprehensive models.

Utilizing encoding in scalable linear optics quantum computing

We present a scheme which offers a significant reduction in the resources required to implement linear optics quantum computing. The scheme is a variation of the proposal of Knill, Laflamme and Milburn, and makes use of an incremental approach to the error encoding to boost probability of success.

Male-by-female interactions influence fertilization success and mediate the benefits of polyandry in the sea urchin Heliocidaris erythrogramma

Numerous studies have reported that females benefit from mating with multiple males (polyandry) by minimizing the probability of fertilization by genetically incompatible sperm. Few, however, have directly attributed variation in female reproductive success to the fertilizing capacity of sperm. In this study we report on two experiments that investigated the benefits of polyandry and the interacting effects of males and females at fertilization in the free-spawning Australian sea urchin Heliocidaris erythrogramma. In the first experiment we used a paired (split clutch) experimental design and compared fertilization rates within female egg clutches under polyandry (eggs exposed to the sperm from two males simultaneously) and monandry (eggs from the same female exposed to sperm from each of the same two males separately). Our analysis revealed a significant fertilization benefit of polyandry and strong interacting effects of males and females at fertilization. Further analysis of these data strongly suggested that the higher rates of fertilization in the polyandry treatment were due to an overrepresentation of fertilizations due to the most compatible male. To further explore the interacting effects of males and females at fertilization we performed a second factorial experiment in which four mates were crossed with two females (in all eight combinations). In addition to confirming that fertilization success is influenced by male X female interactions, this latter experiment revealed that both sexes contributed significant variance to the observed patterns of fertilization. Taken together, these findings highlight the importance of male X female interactions at fertilization and suggest that polyandry will enable females to reduce the cost of fertilization by incompatible gametes.

Binary games with many players

We examine a problem with n players each facing the same binary choice. One choice is superior to the other. The simple assumption of competition - that an individual's payoff falls with a rise in the number of players making the same choice, guarantees the existence of a unique symmetric equilibrium (involving mixed strategies). As n increases, there are two opposing effects. First, events in the middle of the distribution - where a player finds itself having made the same choice as many others - become more likely, but the payoffs in these events fall. In opposition, events in the tails of the distribution - where a player finds itself having made the same choice as few others - become less likely, but the payoffs in these events remain high. We provide a sufficient condition (strong competition) under which an increase in the number of players leads to a reduction in the equilibrium probability that the superior choice is made.

Experimental study of the deposition of combustion aerosols in the human respiratory tract

The total deposition of environmental tobacco smoke (ETS), diesel and petrol smoke in the respiratory tract of 14 non-smokers between the ages of 20 and 30 was determined experimentally. A scanning mobility particle sizer (SMPS) measuring a size range of 0.016-0.626 mu m was used to characterise the inhaled and exhaled aerosol during relaxed nasal breathing over a period of 10 min. The ETS, diesel, and petrol particles had average count median diameter (and geometric standard deviation) of 0.183 mu m (1.7), 0.125 mu m (1.7), and 0.069 mu m (1.7), respectively. The average total number deposition of ETS was 36% (standard deviation 10%), of diesel smoke 30% (standard deviation 9%), and of petrol smoke 41% (standard deviation 8%). The analysis of the deposition patterns as a function of particle size for the three aerosols in each individual showed that there is a significant difference between each aerosol for a majority of individuals (12 out of 14). This is an important result as it indicates that differences persist regardless of inter-subject variability. (C) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Distribution of an asymmetrical copepod, Hatschekia plectropomi, on the gills of Plectropomus leopardus

Hatschekia plectropomi, an ectoparasitic copepod found on the gills, infected Plectropomus leopardus from Heron Island Reef with 100% prevalence (n = 32) and a mean +/- S.E. infection intensity of 131.9 +/- 22.1. The distribution of 4222 adult female parasites across 32 individual host fish was investigated at several organizational levels ranging from the level of holobranch pairs to that of individual filaments. Parasites demonstrated a site preference for the two central holobranchs (2 and 3). Along the lengths of hemibranchs, filaments near the dorsal and ventral ends and those in the proximity of the bend region were rarely occupied. The probability of coming into contact with a suitable attachment site and the ability to withstand ventilation forces at that site were proposed as the major factors affecting distribution. Two H. plectropomi morphotypes were identified based on the direction of body curvature. Regardless of morphotype, 99.9% of individuals were attached such that the convex side of the body was oriented towards the oncoming ventilating water currents. Further, 93.3% of individuals attached to the posterior faces of filaments, leading to a predictable pattern of attachment for this species. It is suggested that the direction of body curvature develops in response to the direction of the ventilating water currents. (c) 2006 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Molecular orbital calculations of two-electron states for P-donor solid-state spin qubits

We theoretically study the Hilbert space structure of two neighboring P-donor electrons in silicon-based quantum computer architectures. To use electron spins as qubits, a crucial condition is the isolation of the electron spins from their environment, including the electronic orbital degrees of freedom. We provide detailed electronic structure calculations of both the single donor electron wave function and the two-electron pair wave function. We adopted a molecular orbital method for the two-electron problem, forming a basis with the calculated single donor electron orbitals. Our two-electron basis contains many singlet and triplet orbital excited states, in addition to the two simple ground state singlet and triplet orbitals usually used in the Heitler-London approximation to describe the two-electron donor pair wave function. We determined the excitation spectrum of the two-donor system, and study its dependence on strain, lattice position, and interdonor separation. This allows us to determine how isolated the ground state singlet and triplet orbitals are from the rest of the excited state Hilbert space. In addition to calculating the energy spectrum, we are also able to evaluate the exchange coupling between the two donor electrons, and the double occupancy probability that both electrons will reside on the same P donor. These two quantities are very important for logical operations in solid-state quantum computing devices, as a large exchange coupling achieves faster gating times, while the magnitude of the double occupancy probability can affect the error rate.

Use of methotrexate in older patients - A risk-benefit assessment

Methotrexate is eliminated almost entirely by the kidneys. The risk of methotrexate toxicity is therefore increased in patients with poor renal function, most likely as a result of drug accumulation. Declining renal function with age may thus be an important predictor of toxicity to methotrexate. Up to 60% of all patients who receive methotrexate for rheumatoid arthritis (RA) discontinue taking it because of adverse effects, most of which occur during the first year of therapy. Gastrointestinal complications are the most common adverse effects of methotrexate, but hepatotoxicity, haematological toxicity, pulmonary toxicity, lymphoproliferative disorders and exacerbation of rheumatic nodules have all been reported, Decreased renal function as a result of disease and/or aging appears to be an important determinant of hepatic, lymphoproli ferative and haematological toxicity, Concomitant use of low doses of folic acid has been recommended as an approach to limiting toxicity. Interactions between methotrexate and several nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs have been reported, but they may not be clinically significant. However, caution is advised in the use of such combinations in patients with reduced renal function. More serious toxicities (e.g. pancytopenia) may result when other inhibitors of folate utilisation [e.g. cotrimoxazole (trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole)] or inhibitors of renal tubular secretion (e.g. probenecid) are combined with methotrexate. Before starting low dose methotrexate therapy in patients with RA, a full blood count, liver function tests, renal function tests and chest radiography should be performed. Blood counts and liver function tests should be repeated at regular intervals. Therapeutic drug monitoring of methotrexate has also been suggested as a means of limiting toxicity. Patients with RA usually respond very favourably to low dose methotrexate therapy, and the probability of patients continuing their treatment beyond 5 years is greater than for other slow-acting antirheumatic drugs. Thus, given its sustained clinical utility and relatively predictable toxicity profile, low dose methotrexate is a useful addition to the therapy of RA.

2-perfect directed m-cycle systems can be equationally defined for m=3,4, and 5 only

It is shown that quasigroups constructed using the standard construction from 2-perfect directed m-cycle systems are precisely the finite members of a variety if and only if m=3, 4 or 5.

Critical sets in direct products of back circulant Latin squares

To date very Few families of critical sets for latin squares are known. The only previously known method for constructing critical sets involves taking a critical set which is known to satisfy certain strong initial conditions and using a doubling construction. This construction can be applied to the known critical sets in back circulant latin squares of even order. However, the doubling construction cannot be applied to critical sets in back circulant latin squares of odd order. In this paper a family of critical sets is identified for latin squares which are the product of the latin square of order 2 with a back circulant latin square of odd order. The proof that each element of the critical set is an essential part of the reconstruction process relies on the proof of the existence of a large number of latin interchanges.

The intercalated disc of monkey myocardial cells and Purkinje fibers as revealed by scanning electron microscopy

The intercalated discs of working myocardium and Purkinje fibers of the monkey heart were examined by scanning and transmission electron microscopy. The NaOH/ultrasonication technique resulted in the digestion of connective tissue and a separation of the intercellular junctions of intercalated discs, such that these could be visualized three-dimensionally. The intercalated discs of ventricular myocytes, atrial myocytes and Purkinje fibers vary considerably in number and configuration, as do the intercalated discs of the three different layers of the ventricular myocardium. Myocytes in the subepicardial, middle and subendocardial layers of the ventricle have 1-3, 4-5 and 5-6 intercalated discs at the end of these cells, respectively, Those in the endocardial layer are characterized by the presence of small laterally-placed intercalated discs. Atrial myocytes and Purkinje fibers usually only have 1-2 intercalated discs, Individual intercalated discs in ventricular myocytes have complicated stairs with 10-30 steps and corresponding risers, while those of atrial myocytes and Purkinje fibers have simple stairs with 1-3 steps and risers, Steps equivalent to the plicate segments are characterized by densely-packed microplicae and finger-like microprojections which greatly increase surface area in vertricular myocytes, Microprojections in atrial myocytes and Purkinje fibers are sparse by comparison, Risers equivalent to the interplicate segments containing large gap junctional areas are most numerous in left ventricular myocytes, followed by right ventricular myocytes, Purkinje fibers and atrial myocytes in decreasing order. The geometric arrangement of the various types of myocytes may be related with impulse propagation. Large intercalated discs of cell trunks and series branches may participate in longitudinal propagation, while small laterally-placed ones may be the site of transverse propagation.

An analysis of valve re-replacement after aortic valve replacement with biologic devices

Biologic valve re-replacement was examined in a series of 1343 patients who underwent aortic valve replacement at The Prince Charles Hospital, Brisbane, with a cryopreserved or 4 degrees C stored allograft valve or a xenograft valve, A parametric model approach was used to simultaneously model the competing risks of death without re-replacement and re-replacement before death, One hundred eleven patients underwent a first re-replacement for a variety of reasons (69 patients with xenograft valves, 28 patients with 4 degrees C stored allograft valves, and 14 patients with cryopreserved allograft valves), By multivariable analysis younger age at operation was associated with xenograft, 4 degrees C stored allograft, and cryopreserved allograft valve re-replacement, However, this effect was examined in the context of longer survival of younger patients, which increases their exposure to the risk of re-replacement as compared with that in older patients whose decreased survival reduced their probability of requiring valve re-replacement, In patients older than 60 years at the time of aortic valve replacement, the probability of re-replacement (for any reason) before death was similar for xenografts and cryopreserved allograft valves but higher for 4 degrees C stored valves, However, in patients younger than 60 years, the probability of re-replacement at any time during the remainder of the life of the patient was lower with the cryopreserved allograft valve compared with the xenograft valve and 4 degrees C stored allografts.

The intersection problem for K_4-e designs

A G-design of order n is a pair (P,B) where P is the vertex set of the complete graph K-n and B is an edge-disjoint decomposition of K-n into copies of the simple graph G. Following design terminology, we call these copies ''blocks''. Here K-4 - e denotes the complete graph K-4 with one edge removed. It is well-known that a K-4 - e design of order n exists if and only if n = 0 or 1 (mod 5), n greater than or equal to 6. The intersection problem here asks for which k is it possible to find two K-4 - e designs (P,B-1) and (P,B-2) of order n, with \B-1 boolean AND B-2\ = k, that is, with precisely k common blocks. Here we completely solve this intersection problem for K-4 - e designs.

High-breakdown linear discriminant analysis

The classification rules of linear discriminant analysis are defined by the true mean vectors and the common covariance matrix of the populations from which the data come. Because these true parameters are generally unknown, they are commonly estimated by the sample mean vector and covariance matrix of the data in a training sample randomly drawn from each population. However, these sample statistics are notoriously susceptible to contamination by outliers, a problem compounded by the fact that the outliers may be invisible to conventional diagnostics. High-breakdown estimation is a procedure designed to remove this cause for concern by producing estimates that are immune to serious distortion by a minority of outliers, regardless of their severity. In this article we motivate and develop a high-breakdown criterion for linear discriminant analysis and give an algorithm for its implementation. The procedure is intended to supplement rather than replace the usual sample-moment methodology of discriminant analysis either by providing indications that the dataset is not seriously affected by outliers (supporting the usual analysis) or by identifying apparently aberrant points and giving resistant estimators that are not affected by them.