Long-term survival of women with breast cancer in New South Wales

Several long-term studies of breast cancer survival have shown continued excess mortality from breast cancer up to 20-40 years following treatment. The purpose of this report was to investigate temporal trends in long-term survival from breast cancer in all New South Wales (NSW) women. Breast cancer cases incident in 1972-1996 (54,228) were derived from the NSW Central Cancer Registry a population-based registry which began in 1972. All cases of breast cancer not known to be dead were matched against death records. The expected survival for NSW women was derived from published annual life tables. Relative survival analysis compared the survival of cancer cases with the age, sex and period matched mortality of the total population. Cases were considered alive at the end of 1996, except when known to be dead. Proportional hazards regression was employed to model survival on age, period and degree of spread at diagnosis. Survival at 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25 years of follow-up was 76 per cent, 65 per cent, 60 per cent, 57 per cent and 56 per cent. The annual hazard rate for excess mortality was 4.3 per cent in year 1, maximal at 6.5 per cent in year 3, declining to 4.7 per cent in year 5, 2.7 per cent in year 10, 1.4 per cent in year 15, 1.0 per cent for years 16-20, and 0.4 per cent for years 20-25 of follow-up. Relative survival was highest in 40-49 year-olds. Cases diagnosed most recently (1992-1996) had the highest survival, compared with cases diagnosed in previous periods. Five-year survival improved over time, especially from the late 1980s for women in the screening age group (50-69 years). Survival was highest for those with localised cancer at diagnosis: 88.4 per cent, 79.1 per cent, 74.6 per cent, 72.7 per cent and 72.8 per cent at 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25 years follow-up (excluding those aged greater than or equal to 70 years). There was no significant difference between the survival of the breast cancer cases and the general population at 20-25 years follow-up. Degree of spread was less predictive of survival 5-20 years after diagnosis, compared with 0-5 years after diagnosis, and was not significant at 20-25 years of follow-up. Relative survival from breast cancer in NSW women continues to decrease to 25 years after diagnosis, but there is little excess mortality after 15 years follow-up, especially for those with localised cancer at diagnosis, and the minimal excess mortality at 20-25 years of follow-up is not statistically significant. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Biodiversity: bridging the gap between condition and conservation

The aim of this study is to create a two-tiered assessment combining restoration and conservation, both needed for biodiversity management. The first tier of this approach assesses the condition of a site using a standard bioassessment method, AUSRIVAS, to determine whether significant loss of biodiversity has occurred because of human activity. The second tier assesses the conservation value of sites that were determined to be unimpacted in the first step against a reference database. This ensures maximum complementarity without having to set a priori target areas. Using the reference database, we assign site-specific and comparable coefficients for both restoration (Observed/Expected taxa with > 50% probability of occurrence) and conservation values (O/E taxa with < 50%, rare taxa). In a trial on 75 sites on rivers around Sydney, NSW, Australia we were able to identify three regions: (1) an area that may need restoration; (2) an area that had a high conservation value and; (3) a region that was identified as having significant biodiversity loss but with high potential to respond to rehabilitation and become a biodiversity hotspot. These examples highlight the use of the new framework as a comprehensive system for biodiversity assessment.

Ten-year survival after first-ever stroke in the Perth Community Stroke Study

Background and Purpose-Very few studies have provided information regarding long-term prognosis after stroke. We aimed to determine the absolute and relative survival over 10 years among patients with first-ever stroke from a population-based study in Perth, Western Australia. Methods-For a 12-month period beginning February 1989, all individuals with a suspected acute stroke or transient ischemic attack who were resident in a geographically defined and representative region of Perth, Western Australia, were registered prospectively and assessed according to standardized diagnostic criteria. Patients with a definite first-ever stroke were followed up prospectively at 4 months, 12 months, 5 years, and 10 years after the index event. Results-A total of 251 patients with first-ever stroke were registered, and 244 (97%) were followed up at 10 years, by which time 197 (79%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 74 to 84) had died. The major causes of death were the direct effects of the initial stroke (27%; 95% CI, 21 to 33) and cardiovascular disease (26%; 95% CI, 20 to 32). Among 1-year survivors of stroke, the average annual case fatality was 4.8%, which was 2.3 (95% CI, 1.9 to 2.7) times greater than for the general population of the same age and sex. Conclusions-One in 5 patients with first-ever stroke survived to 10 years. The average annual case fatality was 4.8% between years 1 and 10 after stroke, which was twice that expected for the general population. Vascular disease is the major cause of death among long-term survivors of stroke.

Factors associated with rural practice among Australian-trained general practitioners

Objective: To determine the factors associated with general practitioners' current practice location, with particular emphasis on rural location. Design: Observational, retrospective, case-control study using a self-administered questionnaire. Setting: Australian general practices in December 2000. Participants: 2414 Australian-trained rural and urban GPs. Main outcome measure: Current urban or rural practice location. Results: For Australia as a whole, rural GPs were more likely to be male (odds ratio [OR], 1.42; 95% CI, 1.17-1.73), Australian-born (OR, 1.95; 95% CI, 1.55-2.45), and to report attending a rural primary school for some (OR, 2.21; 95% CI, 1.69-2.89) or all (OR, 2.79; 95% CI, 1.94-4.00) of their primary schooling. Rural GPs' partners or spouses were also more likely to report some (OR, 2.75; 95% CI, 2.07-3.66) or all (OR, 2.86; 95% CI, 2.02-4.05) rural primary schooling. A rural background in both GP and partner produced the highest likelihood of rural practice (OR, 6.28; 95% CI, 4.26-9.25). For individual jurisdictions, a trend towards more rural GPs being men was only significant in Tasmania. In all jurisdictions except Tasmania and the Northern Territory, rural GPs were more likely to be Australian-born. Conclusions: GPs' and their partners' rural background (residence and primary and secondary schooling) influences choice of practice location, with partners' background appearing to exert more influence.

Choking deaths: the role of antipsychotic medication

Background An increased risk of choking associated with antipsychotic medication has been repeatedly postulated. Aims To examine this association in a large number of cases of choking deaths. Method Cases of individuals who had died because of choking were linked with a case register recording contacts with public mental health services. The actual and expected rates of psychiatric disorder and the presence of psychotropic medication in post-mortem blood samples were compared. Results The 70 people who had choked to death were over 20 times more likely to have been treated previously for schizophrenia. They were also more likely to have had a prior organic psychiatric syndrome. The risk for those receiving thioridazine or lithium was. respectively, 92 times and 30 times greater than expected. Other antipsychotic and psychotropic drugs were not over-represented. Conclusions The increased risk of death in people with schizophrenia may be a combination of inherent predispositions and the use of specific antipsychotic drugs. The increased risk of choking in those with organic psychiatric syndromes is consistent with the consequences of compromised neurological competence. Declaration of interest None.

Innate immune surveillance of spontaneous B cell lymphomas by natural killer cells and gamma delta T cells

Few studies have demonstrated that innate lymphocytes play a major role in preventing spontaneous tumor formation. We evaluated the development of spontaneous tumors in mice lacking beta-2 microglobulin (beta2m; and thus MHC class I, CD1d, and CD16) and/or perform, since these tumor cells would be expected to activate innate effector cells. Approximately half the cohort of perform gene-targeted mice succumbed to spontaneous disseminated B cell lymphomas and in mice that also lacked beta2m, the lymphomas developed earlier (by more than 100 d) and with greater incidence (84%). B cell lymphomas from perforin/beta2m gene-targeted mice effectively primed cell-mediated cytotoxicity and perform, but not IFN-gamma, IL-12, or IL-18, was absolutely essential for tumor rejection. Activated NK1.1(+) and gammadeltaTCR(+) T cells were abundant at the tumor site, and transplanted tumors were strongly rejected by either, or both, of these cell types. Blockade of a number of different known costimulatory pathways failed to prevent tumor rejection. These results reflect a critical role for NK cells and gammadeltaTCP(+) T cells in innate immune surveillance of B cell lymphomas, mediated by as yet undetermined pathway(s) of tumor recognition.

Effect of honey types and concentration on starch gelatinization

The complex and variable composition of honey, depending on source, season and processing, means different honey samples could cause variation in the characteristics of the finished product. The objective of this study was to determine how the minor components present in honey affect starch gelatinization. A Rapid Visco Analyser was used to measure changes in viscosity when unmodified maize starch was gelatinized in a honey or model sugar solution. When honey was compared to equivalent blends of sugars, there was an increase in starch viscosity with increasing levels of addition. However, at the same level, honey gave a lower viscosity than the blends of sugars. Honeys from different sources (differing in pH and amylase activity) show a varied effect on starch gelatinization, with starch viscosity increasing with addition level for six of the honeys, but decreasing with increasing addition level for two honey samples. Varying the pH also produced variation in starch gelatinization patterns between honey types. Between pH 3.0 and 4.0, starch viscosity was similar for all four honey types studied, while above this pH there were differences between all honey types. As expected, starch viscosity decreased as the solution pH neared the optimum for honey amylase activity (pH 5.3-5.6), though it did not increase as the pH moved away from the honey amylase activity optimum. Differences between honey samples, and between honey and a model sugar mixture, in their effect on starch gelatinization was attributed to honey amylase activity and the composition and concentration of minor organic compounds present. Crown Copyright (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier Ltd. on behalf of Swiss Society of Food Science and Technology

Auctions with synergies and asymmetric buyers

In this paper we consider sequential auctions with synergies where one player wants two objects and the remaining players want one object each. We show that expected prices may not necessarily decrease as predicted by Branco [Econ. Lett. 54 (1997) 159]. Indeed we show that expected prices can actually increase. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.

ANNA: A new prediction method for bioassessment programs

1. Cluster analysis of reference sites with similar biota is the initial step in creating River Invertebrate Prediction and Classification System (RIVPACS) and similar river bioassessment models such as Australian River Assessment System (AUSRIVAS). This paper describes and tests an alternative prediction method, Assessment by Nearest Neighbour Analysis (ANNA), based on the same philosophy as RIVPACS and AUSRIVAS but without the grouping step that some people view as artificial. 2. The steps in creating ANNA models are: (i) weighting the predictor variables using a multivariate approach analogous to principal axis correlations, (ii) calculating the weighted Euclidian distance from a test site to the reference sites based on the environmental predictors, (iii) predicting the faunal composition based on the nearest reference sites and (iv) calculating an observed/expected (O/E) analogous to RIVPACS/AUSRIVAS. 3. The paper compares AUSRIVAS and ANNA models on 17 datasets representing a variety of habitats and seasons. First, it examines each model's regressions for Observed versus Expected number of taxa, including the r(2), intercept and slope. Second, the two models' assessments of 79 test sites in New Zealand are compared. Third, the models are compared on test and presumed reference sites along a known trace metal gradient. Fourth, ANNA models are evaluated for western Australia, a geographically distinct region of Australia. The comparisons demonstrate that ANNA and AUSRIVAS are generally equivalent in performance, although ANNA turns out to be potentially more robust for the O versus E regressions and is potentially more accurate on the trace metal gradient sites. 4. The ANNA method is recommended for use in bioassessment of rivers, at least for corroborating the results of the well established AUSRIVAS- and RIVPACS-type models, if not to replace them.

The link between prejudiced attitudes and discriminatory behaviour: The role of ingroup norms

In the present research, a reconceptualisation of the role of norms in the link between prejudiced attitudes and discriminatory behaviour — along the lines suggested by the social identity perspective — was tested. In the first study, group salience and group norm were manipulated. As expected, participants ascribed negative traits to significantly fewer Asian university students when they had received consensus information along these lines from a salient ingroup rather than from a salient outgroup. These results were replicated on a measure of strength of motivation to appear nonprejudiced. In a second study, group salience and norm were once again manipulated and strength of attitude and perceived group threat were measured. As predicted, people's negative attitudes towards globalisation were more likely to predict congruent behavioural responses to the extent that the group norm supported the attitude and group salience was high, particularly when high levels of group threat were perceived.

Reserve price commitments in auctions

It is well known that the optimal auction-one that maximizes the seller's expected revenue-can be implemented using a standard auction format with a suitably chosen reserve price. This reserve price is above the seller's value of retaining the object and the mechanism requires a commitment not to sell the object below the reserve. This commitment is what makes the reserve valuable to the seller. However, in practice, a reserve price commits the seller to sell the object if the reserve is reached, but does not commit her to withhold the object from sale if bidding falls short of the reserve. In this note we investigate whether reserve prices remain valuable for the seller when she may negotiate with the highest bidder if the reserve is not met. We show that the value of the reserve price may be completely undermined if the seller is a sufficiently weak bargainer. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Experience-induced preference for oviposition repellents derived from a non-host plant by a specialist herbivore

Foraging adults of phytophagous insects are attracted by host-plant volatiles and supposedly repelled by volatiles from non-host plants. In behavioural control of pest insects, chemicals derived from non-host plants applied to crops are expected to repel searching adults and thereby reduce egg laying. How experience by searching adults of non-host volatiles affects their subsequent searching and oviposition behaviour has been rarely tested. In laboratory experiments, we examined the effect of experience of a non-host-plant extract on the oviposition behaviour of the diamondback moth (DBM), Plutella xylostella, a specialist herbivore of cruciferous plants. Naive ovipositing DBM females were repelled by an extract of dried leaves of Chrysanthemum morifolium, a non-host plant of DBM, but experienced females were not repelled. Instead they were attracted by host plants treated with the non-host-plant extract and laid a higher proportion of eggs on treated than on untreated host plants. Such behavioural changes induced by experience could lead to host-plant range expansion in phytophagous insects and play an important role in determining outcome for pest management of some behavioural manipulation methods.

Coping with stereotype threat: Denial as an impression management strategy

Four experiments tested the hypothesis that people who are concerned with impression management cope with stereotype threat through denial. Consistent with this hypothesis, temporary employees threatened by a stereotype of incompetence (Study 1) and hostel-dwelling older adults (Study 2) were more likely to deny incompetence if they were high in impression management. African Americans (Study 3) showed a similar pattern of denying cognitive incompetence, which emerged primarily when they were interviewed by a White experimenter and had attended a predominantly Black high school. In Study 4, White students who expected to take an IQ test and were threatened by a stereotype of being less intelligent than Asians were more likely to deny that intelligence is important if they were high in impression management.

The impact of expert testimony on jurors' decisions: Gender of the expert and testimony complexity

The present study investigated whether people used the gender of an expert witness as a heuristic cue to evaluate the evidence presented by the expert. Specifically, the gender of the expert and the complexity of the expert's testimony (low, high) were varied systematically within a simulated civil trial involving an antitrust price-fixing agreement. It was expected that the male expert would be more persuasive than the female expert, but only when the testimony presented was complex. As predicted, this interaction was revealed across a range of dependent measures. Somewhat unexpected was the finding of a female expert advantage in the low-complexity condition. The implications of these findings are discussed.

Pathology reporting of breast cancer: trends in 1989-1999, following the introduction of mammographic screening in Western Australia

Background: A survey of pathology reporting of breast cancer in Western Australia in 1989 highlighted the need for improvement. The current study documents (1) changes in pathology reporting from 1989 to 1999 and (2) changes in patterns of histopathological prognostic indicators for breast cancer following introduction of mammographic screening in 1989. Methods: Data concerning all breast cancer cases reported in Western Australia in 1989, 1994 and 1999 were retrieved using the State Cancer Registry, Hospital Morbidity data system, and pathology laboratory records. Results: Pathology reports improved in quality during the decade surveyed. For invasive carcinoma, tumour size was not recorded in 1.2% of pathology reports in 1999 compared with 16.1% in 1989 (rho<0.001). Corresponding figures for other prognostic factors were: tumour grade 3.3% and 51.6% (rho<0.001), tumour type 0.2% and 4.1% (rho<0.001), vascular invasion 3.7% and 70.9% (rho<0.001), and lymph node status 1.9% and 4.5% (rho=0.023). In 1999, 5.9% of reports were not in a synoptic/checklist format, whereas all reports were descriptive in 1989 (rho<0.001). For the population as a whole, the proportion of invasive carcinomas <1 cm was 20.9% in 1999 compared with 14.5% in 1989 (rho<0.001); for tumours <2 cm the corresponding figures were 65.4% and 59.7% (rho=0.013). In 1999, 30.5% of tumours were histologically well-differentiated compared with 10.6% in 1989 (rho<0.001), and 61.7% were lymph node negative in 1999 compared with 57.1% in 1989 (rho=0.006). Pure ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) constituted 10.9% and 7.9% of total cases of breast carcinoma in 1999 and 1989, respectively (rho=0.01). Conclusions: Quality of pathology reporting improved markedly over the period, in parallel with adoption of stanclardised synoptic pathology reports. By 1999, recording of important prognostic information was almost complete. Frequency of favourable prognostic factors generally increased over time, reflecting expected effects of mammographic screening.