Cholesterol-lowering therapy with pravastatin in patients with average cholesterol levels and established ischaemic heart disease: is it cost-effective?

Objective: To measure the cost-effectiveness of cholesterol-lowering therapy with pravastatin in patients with established ischaemic heart disease and average baseline cholesterol levels. Design: Prospective economic evaluation within a double-blind randomised trial (Long-Term Intervention with Pravastatin in Ischaemic Disease [LIPID]), in which patients with a history of unstable angina or previous myocardial infarction were randomised to receive 40 mg of pravastatin daily or matching placebo. Patients and setting: 9014 patients aged 35-75 years from 85 centres in Australia and New Zealand, recruited from June 1990 to December 1992. Main outcome measures: Cost per death averted, cost per life-year gained, and cost per quality-adjusted life-year gained, calculated from measures of hospitalisations, medication use, outpatient visits, and quality of life. Results: The LIPID trial showed a 22% relative reduction in all-cause mortality (P < 0.001). Over a mean follow-up of 6 years, hospital admissions for coronary heart disease and coronary revascularisation were reduced by about 20%. Over this period, pravastatin cost $A4913 per patient, but reduced total hospitalisation costs by $A1385 per patient and other long-term medication costs by $A360 per patient. In a subsample of patients, average quality of life was 0.98 (where 0 = dead and 1 = normal good health); the treatment groups were not significantly different. The absolute reduction in all-cause mortality was 3.0% (95% CI, 1.6%-4.4%), and the incremental cost was $3246 per patient, resulting in a cost per life saved of $107730 (95% Cl, $68626-$209881) within the study period. Extrapolating long-term survival from the placebo group, the undiscounted cost per life-year saved was $7695 (and $10 938 with costs and life-years discounted at an annual rate of 5%). Conclusions: Pravastatin therapy for patients with a history of myocardial infarction or unstable angina and average cholesterol levels reduces all-cause mortality and appears cost effective compared with accepted treatments in high-income countries.

Mathematical modelling of schistosomiasis japonica: comparison of control strategies in the People's Republic of China

We present the first mathematical model on the transmission dynamics of Schistosoma japonicum. The work extends Barbour's classic model of schistosome transmission. It allows for the mammalian host heterogeneity characteristic of the S. japonicum life cycle, and solves the problem of under-specification of Barbour's model by the use of Chinese data we are collecting on human-bovine transmission in the Poyang Lake area of Jiangxi Province in China. The model predicts that in the lake/marshland areas of the Yangtze River basin: (1) once-early mass chemotherapy of humans is little better than twice-yearly mass chemotherapy in reducing human prevalence. Depending on the heterogeneity of prevalence within the population, targeted treatment of high prevalence groups, with lower overall coverage, can be more effective than mass treatment with higher overall coverage. Treatment confers a short term benefit only, with prevalence rising to endemic levels once chemotherapy programs are stopped (2) depending on the relative contributions of bovines and humans, bovine treatment can benefit humans almost as much as human treatment. Like human treatment, bovine treatment confers a short-term benefit. A combination of human and bovine treatment will dramatically reduce human prevalence and maintains the reduction for a longer period of time than treatment of a single host, although human prevalence rises once treatment ceases; (3) assuming 75% coverage of bovines, a bovine vaccine which acts on worm fecundity must have about 75% efficacy to reduce the reproduction rate below one and ensure mid-term reduction and long-term elimination of the parasite. Such a vaccination program should be accompanied by an initial period of human treatment to instigate a short-term reduction in prevalence, following which the reduction is enhanced by vaccine effects; (4) if the bovine vaccine is only 45% efficacious (the level of current prototype vaccines) it will lower the endemic prevalence, but will not result in elimination. If it is accompanied by an initial period of human treatment and by a 45% improvement in human sanitation or a 30% reduction in contaminated water contact by humans, elimination is then possible. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Achieving effective supervision

Super vision probably does have benefits both for the maintenance and improvement of clinical skills and for job satisfaction, but the data are very thin and almost non-existent in the area of alcohol and other drugs services. Because of the potential complexity of objectives and roles in super vision, a structured agreement appears to be an important part of the effective supervision relationship. Because sessions can degenerate easily into unstructured socialization, agendas and session objectives may also be important. While a working alliance based on mutual respect and trust is an essential base for the supervision relationship, procedures for direct observation of clinical skills, demonstration of new procedures and skills practice with detailed feedback appear critical to super vision's impact on practice. To ensure effective super vision, there needs not only to be a minimum of personnel and resources, but also a compatibility with the values and procedures of management and staff, access to supervision training and consultation and sufficient incentives to ensure it continues.

Characterisation of multiple Caribbean ciguatoxins and congeners in individual specimens of horse-eye jack (Caranx latus) by high-performance liquid chromatography/mass spectrometry

We studied the variation in toxin profiles of purified extracts of 10 individual specimens and two pools of ciguateric Caranx latus. High-performance liquid chromatography/mass spectrometry (HPLC/MS) identified in all individual samples at least seven Caribbean ciguatoxins (C-CTXs) comprising C-CTX-1 and its epimer C-CTX-2 ([M + H](+) m/z 1141.58), and five new C-CTX congeners with pseudo-molecular ions at m/z 1141.58, 1143.60, 1157.57, 1159.58, and 1127.57. In some samples, additional C-CTX isomers were detected with [M + H](+) ions at m/z 1141.58 (two), 1143.60 (one) and 1157.57 (two). The two low-toxic pools contained only four to six ciguatoxins. The comparison in relative proportions of four different mass classes ([M + H](+) at m/z 1141, 1143, 1157 and 1127) showed that the group at m/z 1157 increased (2-20%) with flesh toxicity. More than 80% of group m/z 1141 comprised C-CTX-1, C-CTX-2 and their isomer C-CTX-1 a whose level in this group correlated with fish toxicity. Contrary to low-toxic fishes, high-risk specimens had C-CTX-1 levels

Product form approximations for highly linear loss networks with trunk reservation

Admission controls, such as trunk reservation, are often used in loss networks to optimise their performance. Since the numerical evaluation of performance measures is complex, much attention has been given to finding approximation methods. The Erlang Fixed-Point (EFP) approximation, which is based on an independent blocking assumption, has been used for networks both with and without controls. Several more elaborate approximation methods which account for dependencies in blocking behaviour have been developed for the uncontrolled setting. This paper is an exploratory investigation of extensions and synthesis of these methods to systems with controls, in particular, trunk reservation. In order to isolate the dependency factor, we restrict our attention to a highly linear network. We will compare the performance of the resulting approximations against the benchmark of the EFP approximation extended to the trunk reservation setting. By doing this, we seek to gain insight into the critical factors in constructing an effective approximation. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Asymmetric blasting: a rock mass dependent blast design method

Blasting has been the most frequently used method for rock breakage since black powder was first used to fragment rocks, more than two hundred years ago. This paper is an attempt to reassess standard design techniques used in blasting by providing an alternative approach to blast design. The new approach has been termed asymmetric blasting. Based on providing real time rock recognition through the capacity of measurement while drilling (MWD) techniques, asymmetric blasting is an approach to deal with rock properties as they occur in nature, i.e., randomly and asymmetrically spatially distributed. It is well accepted that performance of basic mining operations, such as excavation and crushing rely on a broken rock mass which has been pre conditioned by the blast. By pre-conditioned we mean well fragmented, sufficiently loose and with adequate muckpile profile. These muckpile characteristics affect loading and hauling [1]. The influence of blasting does not end there. Under the Mine to Mill paradigm, blasting has a significant leverage on downstream operations such as crushing and milling. There is a body of evidence that blasting affects mineral liberation [2]. Thus, the importance of blasting has increased from simply fragmenting and loosing the rock mass, to a broader role that encompasses many aspects of mining, which affects the cost of the end product. A new approach is proposed in this paper which facilitates this trend 'to treat non-homogeneous media (rock mass) in a non-homogeneous manner (an asymmetrical pattern) in order to achieve an optimal result (in terms of muckpile size distribution).' It is postulated there are no logical reasons (besides the current lack of means to infer rock mass properties in the blind zones of the bench and onsite precedents) for drilling a regular blast pattern over a rock mass that is inherently heterogeneous. Real and theoretical examples of such a method are presented.

Estimation of body fatness from body mass index and bioelectrical impedance: comparison of New Zealand European, Maori and Pacific Island children

Objective: To compare percentage body fat (%BF) for a given body mass index (BMI) among New Zealand European, Maori and Pacific Island children. To develop prediction equations based on bioimpedance measurements for the estimation of fat-free mass (FFM) appropriate to children in these three ethnic groups. Design: Cross-sectional study. Purposive sampling of schoolchildren aimed at recruiting three children of each sex and ethnicity for each year of age. Double cross-validation of FFM prediction equations developed by multiple regression. Setting: Local schools in Auckland. Subjects: Healthy European, Maori and Pacific Island children (n = 172, 83 M, 89 F, mean age 9.4 +/- 2.8(s. d.), range 5 - 14 y). Measurements: Height, weight, age, sex and ethnicity were recorded. FFM was derived from measurements of total body water by deuterium dilution and resistance and reactance were measured by bioimpedance analysis. Results: For fixed BMI, the Maori and Pacific Island girls averaged 3.7% lower % BF than European girls. For boys a similar relation was not found since BMI did not significantly influence % BF of European boys ( P = 0.18). Based on bioimpedance measurements a single prediction equation was developed for all children: FFM (kg) = 0.622 height (cm)(2)/ resistance +0.234 weight (kg)+1.166, R-2 = 0.96, s. e. e. = 2.44 kg. Ethnicity, age and sex were not significant predictors. Conclusions: A robust equation for estimation of FFM in New Zealand European, Maori and Pacific Island children in the 5 - 14 y age range that is more suitable than BMI for the determination of body fatness in field studies has been developed. Sponsorship: Maurice and Phyllis Paykel Trust, Auckland University of Technology Contestable Grants Fund and the Ministry of Health.