139 resultados para Davis, Natalie Zemon
Resumo:
We present the first mathematical model on the transmission dynamics of Schistosoma japonicum. The work extends Barbour's classic model of schistosome transmission. It allows for the mammalian host heterogeneity characteristic of the S. japonicum life cycle, and solves the problem of under-specification of Barbour's model by the use of Chinese data we are collecting on human-bovine transmission in the Poyang Lake area of Jiangxi Province in China. The model predicts that in the lake/marshland areas of the Yangtze River basin: (1) once-early mass chemotherapy of humans is little better than twice-yearly mass chemotherapy in reducing human prevalence. Depending on the heterogeneity of prevalence within the population, targeted treatment of high prevalence groups, with lower overall coverage, can be more effective than mass treatment with higher overall coverage. Treatment confers a short term benefit only, with prevalence rising to endemic levels once chemotherapy programs are stopped (2) depending on the relative contributions of bovines and humans, bovine treatment can benefit humans almost as much as human treatment. Like human treatment, bovine treatment confers a short-term benefit. A combination of human and bovine treatment will dramatically reduce human prevalence and maintains the reduction for a longer period of time than treatment of a single host, although human prevalence rises once treatment ceases; (3) assuming 75% coverage of bovines, a bovine vaccine which acts on worm fecundity must have about 75% efficacy to reduce the reproduction rate below one and ensure mid-term reduction and long-term elimination of the parasite. Such a vaccination program should be accompanied by an initial period of human treatment to instigate a short-term reduction in prevalence, following which the reduction is enhanced by vaccine effects; (4) if the bovine vaccine is only 45% efficacious (the level of current prototype vaccines) it will lower the endemic prevalence, but will not result in elimination. If it is accompanied by an initial period of human treatment and by a 45% improvement in human sanitation or a 30% reduction in contaminated water contact by humans, elimination is then possible. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
Isolated systolic hypertension (ISH) occurs predominantly in the elderly, with a considerable morbidity and mortality. Its etiology is unknown but is likely to involve a significant genetic component. The aim of this study was to examine the angiotensinogen gene in ISH. The M235T and G(- 6)A polymorphisms were genotyped by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) in 86 ISH patients and 120 normotensive controls. Plasma angiotensinogen concentration was determined in 198 subjects by an indirect radioimmunoassay technique. Angiotensinogen mRNA concentration was determined by quantitative competitive reverse transcription (RT)-PCR in subcutaneous adipose tissue from a subset of these patients (n = 8) and controls (n = 6). Both the M235T (p = 0.0015) and G(- 6)A (p = 0.029) polymorphisms were associated with ISH. Plasma angiotensinogen concentration was higher in patients than controls (p < 0.0001), but was not associated with genotype. Angiotensinogen mRNA concentration in adipose tissue from ISH subjects was significantly lower than in adipose tissue from normotensive subjects (p = 0.033). The association of angiotensinogen gene variants with ISH and the elevation of plasma angiotensinogen concentration in these patients suggests a role of the angiotensinogen gene in this form of hypertension. Angiotensinogen gene expression may be altered in ISH, but this requires further examination.
