On measuring quality of a probabilistic commodity forecast for a system that incorporates seasonal climate forecasts

Regional commodity forecasts are being used increasingly in agricultural industries to enhance their risk management and decision-making processes. These commodity forecasts are probabilistic in nature and are often integrated with a seasonal climate forecast system. The climate forecast system is based on a subset of analogue years drawn from the full climatological distribution. In this study we sought to measure forecast quality for such an integrated system. We investigated the quality of a commodity (i.e. wheat and sugar) forecast based on a subset of analogue years in relation to a standard reference forecast based on the full climatological set. We derived three key dimensions of forecast quality for such probabilistic forecasts: reliability, distribution shift, and change in dispersion. A measure of reliability was required to ensure no bias in the forecast distribution. This was assessed via the slope of the reliability plot, which was derived from examination of probability levels of forecasts and associated frequencies of realizations. The other two dimensions related to changes in features of the forecast distribution relative to the reference distribution. The relationship of 13 published accuracy/skill measures to these dimensions of forecast quality was assessed using principal component analysis in case studies of commodity forecasting using seasonal climate forecasting for the wheat and sugar industries in Australia. There were two orthogonal dimensions of forecast quality: one associated with distribution shift relative to the reference distribution and the other associated with relative distribution dispersion. Although the conventional quality measures aligned with these dimensions, none measured both adequately. We conclude that a multi-dimensional approach to assessment of forecast quality is required and that simple measures of reliability, distribution shift, and change in dispersion provide a means for such assessment. The analysis presented was also relevant to measuring quality of probabilistic seasonal climate forecasting systems. The importance of retaining a focus on the probabilistic nature of the forecast and avoiding simplifying, but erroneous, distortions was discussed in relation to applying this new forecast quality assessment paradigm to seasonal climate forecasts. Copyright (K) 2003 Royal Meteorological Society.

The peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor beta/delta agonist, GW501516, regulates the expression of genes involved in lipid catabolism and energy uncoupling in skeletal muscle cells

Lipid homeostasis is controlled by the peroxisome proliferator-activated receptors (PPARalpha, -beta/delta, and -gamma) that function as fatty acid-dependent DNA-binding proteins that regulate lipid metabolism. In vitro and in vivo genetic and pharmacological studies have demonstrated PPARalpha regulates lipid catabolism. In contrast, PPARgamma regulates the conflicting process of lipid storage. However, relatively little is known about PPARbeta/delta in the context of target tissues, target genes, lipid homeostasis, and functional overlap with PPARalpha and -gamma. PPARbeta/delta, a very low-density lipoprotein sensor, is abundantly expressed in skeletal muscle, a major mass peripheral tissue that accounts for approximately 40% of total body weight. Skeletal muscle is a metabolically active tissue, and a primary site of glucose metabolism, fatty acid oxidation, and cholesterol efflux. Consequently, it has a significant role in insulin sensitivity, the blood-lipid profile, and lipid homeostasis. Surprisingly, the role of PPARbeta/delta in skeletal muscle has not been investigated. We utilize selective PPARalpha, -beta/delta, -gamma, and liver X receptor agonists in skeletal muscle cells to understand the functional role of PPARbeta/delta, and the complementary and/or contrasting roles of PPARs in this major mass peripheral tissue. Activation of PPARbeta/delta by GW501516 in skeletal muscle cells induces the expression of genes involved in preferential lipid utilization, beta-oxidation, cholesterol efflux, and energy uncoupling. Furthermore, we show that treatment of muscle cells with GW501516 increases apolipoprotein-A1 specific efflux of intracellular cholesterol, thus identifying this tissue as an important target of PPARbeta/delta agonists. Interestingly, fenofibrate induces genes involved in fructose uptake, and glycogen formation. In contrast, rosiglitazone-mediated activation of PPARgamma induces gene expression associated with glucose uptake, fatty acid synthesis, and lipid storage. Furthermore, we show that the PPAR-dependent reporter in the muscle carnitine palmitoyltransferase-1 promoter is directly regulated by PPARbeta/delta, and not PPARalpha in skeletal muscle cells in a PPARgamma coactivator-1-dependent manner. This study demonstrates that PPARs have distinct roles in skeletal muscle cells with respect to the regulation of lipid, carbohydrate, and energy homeostasis. Moreover, we surmise that PPARgamma/delta agonists would increase fatty acid catabolism, cholesterol efflux, and energy expenditure in muscle, and speculate selective activators of PPARbeta/delta may have therapeutic utility in the treatment of hyperlipidemia, atherosclerosis, and obesity.