Hormone replacement therapy and breast cancer: estimate of risk: Education debate

The risk of breast cancer arises from a combination of genetic susceptibility and environmental factors. Recent studies show that type and duration of use of hormone replacement therapy affect a women's risk of developing breast cancer.1-7 The women's health initiative trial was stopped early because of excess adverse cardiovascular events and invasive breast cancer with oestrogen and progestogen.6 The publicity increased public awareness of the risks of hormone replacement therapy, and this was heightened by the publication of the million women study.2 However, the recently published oestrogen only arm of the women's health initiative trial suggests that this formulation may reduce the risk of breast cancer.8 To help make sense of the often confusing information,9 women and clinicians need individual rather than population risk data. We have produced estimates that can be used to calculate individual risk for women living up to the age of 79 and suggest the risk

HRT and breast cancer: Impact on population risk and incidence

This study has calculated the potential impact of hormone replacement therapy (HRT) on breast cancer incidence in Australia and has estimated how changes in prescribing HRT to women could affect this risk. The effects of HRT on breast cancer incidence was estimated using the attributable fraction technique with prevalence data derived from the 2001 Australian Health Survey and published rates of breast cancer relative risks from HRT use. In Australia, 12% of adult women were current HRT users and in 2001, 11783 breast cancers were reported. Of these, 1066 (9%) were potentially attributable to HRT. Restricting HRT use to women aged less than 65 years, ceasing HRT prescribing after 10 years or limiting combined oestrogen and progesterone HRT to five years (but otherwise keeping prescription levels to 2001 levels) may reduce the annual breast cancer caseload by 280 (2.4%), 555 (4.7%) or 674 (5.7%), respectively. In conclusion, this study has demonstrated that when HRT prevalence is relatively high, the effect on breast cancer incidence in the population will be significant. A small modification in HRT prescribing practices may impact breast cancer incidence in Australia with associated financial and health care provision implications. (C) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Pathology reporting of breast cancer: trends in 1989-1999, following the introduction of mammographic screening in Western Australia

Background: A survey of pathology reporting of breast cancer in Western Australia in 1989 highlighted the need for improvement. The current study documents (1) changes in pathology reporting from 1989 to 1999 and (2) changes in patterns of histopathological prognostic indicators for breast cancer following introduction of mammographic screening in 1989. Methods: Data concerning all breast cancer cases reported in Western Australia in 1989, 1994 and 1999 were retrieved using the State Cancer Registry, Hospital Morbidity data system, and pathology laboratory records. Results: Pathology reports improved in quality during the decade surveyed. For invasive carcinoma, tumour size was not recorded in 1.2% of pathology reports in 1999 compared with 16.1% in 1989 (rho<0.001). Corresponding figures for other prognostic factors were: tumour grade 3.3% and 51.6% (rho<0.001), tumour type 0.2% and 4.1% (rho<0.001), vascular invasion 3.7% and 70.9% (rho<0.001), and lymph node status 1.9% and 4.5% (rho=0.023). In 1999, 5.9% of reports were not in a synoptic/checklist format, whereas all reports were descriptive in 1989 (rho<0.001). For the population as a whole, the proportion of invasive carcinomas <1 cm was 20.9% in 1999 compared with 14.5% in 1989 (rho<0.001); for tumours <2 cm the corresponding figures were 65.4% and 59.7% (rho=0.013). In 1999, 30.5% of tumours were histologically well-differentiated compared with 10.6% in 1989 (rho<0.001), and 61.7% were lymph node negative in 1999 compared with 57.1% in 1989 (rho=0.006). Pure ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) constituted 10.9% and 7.9% of total cases of breast carcinoma in 1999 and 1989, respectively (rho=0.01). Conclusions: Quality of pathology reporting improved markedly over the period, in parallel with adoption of stanclardised synoptic pathology reports. By 1999, recording of important prognostic information was almost complete. Frequency of favourable prognostic factors generally increased over time, reflecting expected effects of mammographic screening.

Achieving the millennium development goals for health - Cost effectiveness analysis of strategies for. maternal and neonatal health in developing countries

Objective To determine the costs and benefits of interventions for maternal and newborn health to assess the appropriateness of current strategies and guide future plans to attain the millennium development goals. Design Cost effectiveness analysis. Setting Two regions classified by the World Health Organization according to their epidemiological grouping: Afr-E, those countries in sub-Saharan Africa with very high adult and high child mortality, and Sear-D, comprising countries in South East Asia with high adult and high child mortality. Data sources Effectiveness data from several sources, including trials, observational studies, and expert opinion. For resource inputs, quantifies came from WHO guidelines, literature, and expert opinion, and prices from the WHO choosing interventions that are cost effective database. Main outcome measures Cost per disability adjusted life year (DALY) averted in year 2000 international dollars. Results The most cost effective mix of interventions was similar in Afr-E and Sear-D. These were the community based newborn care package, followed by antenatal care (tetanus toxoid, screening for pre-eclampsia, screening and treatment of asymptomatic bacteriuria and syphilis); skilled attendance at birth, offering first level maternal and neonatal care around childbirth; and emergency obstetric and neonatal care around and after birth. Screening and treatment of maternal syphilis, community based management of neonatal pneumonia, and steroids given during the antenatal period were relatively less cost effective in Sear-D. Scaling up all of the included interventions to 95% coverage would halve neonatal and maternal deaths. Conclusion Preventive interventions at the community level for newborn babies and at the primary care level for mothers and newborn babies are extremely cost effective, but the millennium development goals for maternal and child health will not be achieved without universal access to clinical services as well.

Achieving the millennium development goals for health - Time to reassess strategies for improving health in developing countries

Making best use of resources is vital in developing countries that are struggling to improve public health with limited funds. The WHO-CHOICE project has developed standardised methods to,evaluate the efficiency of a broad range of interventions. Ibis series starts by assessing die problems with strategies for meeting the millennium development goals. Subsequent articles describe the methods, apply them to maternal and neonatal health, child health, HIV and AIDS, tuberculosis, and malaria, and consider the implications for an overall health strategy. All appear on bmj.com this week.

Eutectic modification and microstructure development in Al-Si alloys

Recent increasing applications for cast Al-Si alloys are particularly driven by the need for lightweighting components in the automotive sector. To improve mechanical properties, elements such as strontium, sodium and antimony can be added to modify the eutectic silicon from coarse and plate-like to fine and fibrous morphology. It is only recently being noticed that the morphological transformation resulting from eutectic modification is also accompanied by other, equally significant, but often unexpected changes. These changes can include a 10-fold increase in the eutectic grain size, redistribution of low-melting point phases and porosity as well as surface finish, consequently leading to variations in casting quality. This paper shows the state-of-the-art in understanding the mechanism of eutectic nucleation and growth in Al-Si alloys, inspecting samples, both quenched and uninterrupted, on the macro, micro and nano-scale. It shows that significant variations in eutectic nucleation and growth dynamics occur in AI-Si alloys as a function of the type and amount of modifier elements added. The key role of AIP particles in nucleating silicon is demonstrated. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Population-based mammography screening and breast cancer incidence in New South Wales, Australia

To analyse breast cancer incidence trends in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, in relation to population-based mammography screening targeting women aged 50 to 69 years. Trends in age-specific incidence of invasive breast cancers in NSW women aged >= 40 years were examined in relation to mammography screening rates and screening cancer detection rates. Incidence of invasive breast cancer in NSW women increased in all age-groups over 1972 to 2002. The incidence trend for women aged 50 to 69 years showed that the steepest rise was associated with increased participation in population-based mammography screening, which was implemented from 1988 and achieved state-wide coverage in 1995. The elevated incidence of invasive cancer significantly exceeded pre-screening levels, and persisted after rates of initial screens declined. This elevated incidence was sustained by the contribution of cancers diagnosed through subsequent screening, and resulted from increased cancer detection rates in subsequent screens. The recent increase in invasive breast cancer incidence in NSW is associated with mammography screening, and occurred mostly in the target age-group women. Persistence of higher incidence after 1994 was not explicable by inflation of cancer incidence due to detection of prevalent screen cases, but was associated with a trend of increased cancer detection rates in subsequent screening rounds, probably consequent to quality improvements in mammography screening diagnosis.

Hormone replacement therapy and breast cancer risk in California

Numerous studies have documented increased breast cancer risks with hormone replacement therapy (HRT), but these do not give a woman her specific absolute risk for the remainder of her life. This article estimates the magnitude of the effect of HRT on breast cancer incidence in California and calculates a woman's cumulative risk of breast cancer with different formulations and durations of HRT use. The effects of HRT on the underlying breast cancer incidence were estimated using the attributable fraction method, applying HRT prevalence data from the 2001 California Health Interview Survey and published rates of higher relative risk (RR) from HRT use from the Women's Health Initiative (WHI) study and Million Women's Survey (MWS). The annual number of breast cancers potentially attributable to HRT in California was estimated, along with individual cumulative risk of breast cancer for various ages to 79 years according to HRT use, duration, and formulation. Using the WHI data, 829 of 19,000 breast cancers (4.3%) in California may be attributable to HRT This figure increases to 3401 (17.4%) when the MWS RRs are applied. Use of estrogen-only HRT or short-term (approximately 5 years) use of combined HRT has a minimal effect on the cumulative risk calculated to the age of 79 years; application of the MWS data to a Californian woman commencing HRT at the age of 50 years (no HRT, 8.5%; estrogen only, 8.6%; combined, 9.1%). Prolonged (approximately 10 years) use of combined HRT increases the cumulative risk to 10.3%. This article demonstrates that HRT will generate a small additional risk of breast cancer in an individual. The reduction in perimenopausal symptoms may be considered sufficient to warrant this extra risk. However, this view needs to be balanced because the small increases in individual risk will be magnified, producing a noticeable change in population cancer caseload where HRT use is high.

Effect of hypothalamo-pituitary disconnection on the development of anterior pituitary cells in late gestation ovine fetuses

The specific role of the hypothalamus in regulating the developmental profile of anterior pituitary (AP) cells remains largely unknown. The present study evaluated hypothalamic contributions to AP cell development, utilizing the technique of hypothalamo-pituitary disconnection (HPD). HPD of fetal sheep or sham surgery was performed at 110 days gestation (d) (n=6 each group; term ~ 147d). Fetuses were removed and pituitaries collected at 110d (no surgery; n=6) or 141d (sham and HPD groups). The impact of HPD on AP cell development was assessed by single-labeled immunofluorescence for five hormones to identify proportions of AP cells expressing each hormone. HPD was associated with a 70% increase (P