The cross-entropy method for network reliability estimation

Consider a network of unreliable links, modelling for example a communication network. Estimating the reliability of the network-expressed as the probability that certain nodes in the network are connected-is a computationally difficult task. In this paper we study how the Cross-Entropy method can be used to obtain more efficient network reliability estimation procedures. Three techniques of estimation are considered: Crude Monte Carlo and the more sophisticated Permutation Monte Carlo and Merge Process. We show that the Cross-Entropy method yields a speed-up over all three techniques.

Application of the cross-entropy method to the buffer allocation problem in a simulation-based environment

The buffer allocation problem (BAP) is a well-known difficult problem in the design of production lines. We present a stochastic algorithm for solving the BAP, based on the cross-entropy method, a new paradigm for stochastic optimization. The algorithm involves the following iterative steps: (a) the generation of buffer allocations according to a certain random mechanism, followed by (b) the modification of this mechanism on the basis of cross-entropy minimization. Through various numerical experiments we demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed algorithm and show that the method can quickly generate (near-)optimal buffer allocations for fairly large production lines.

A new system of variational inclusions with (H,eta)-monotone operators in Hilbert spaces

In this paper, we introduce and study a new system of variational inclusions involving (H, eta)-monotone operators in Hilbert space. Using the resolvent operator associated with (H, eta)monotone operators, we prove the existence and uniqueness of solutions for this new system of variational inclusions. We also construct a new algorithm for approximating the solution of this system and discuss the convergence of the sequence of iterates generated by the algorithm. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Central elements of the elliptic Zn monodromy matrix algebra at roots of unity

The central elements of the algebra of monodromy matrices associated with the Z(n) R-matrix are studied. When the crossing parameter w takes a special rational value w = n/N, where N and n are positive coprime integers, the center is substantially larger than that in the generic case for which the quantum determinant provides the center. In the trigonometric limit, the situation corresponds to the quantum group at roots of unity. This is a higher rank generalization of the recent results by Belavin and Jimbo. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Multiplicity results for second-order two-point boundary value problems with superlinear or sublinear nonlinearities

We consider boundary value problems for nonlinear second order differential equations of the form u + a(t) f(u) = 0, t epsilon (0, 1), u(0) = u(1) = 0, where a epsilon C([0, 1], (0, infinity)) and f : R --> R is continuous and satisfies f (s)s > 0 for s not equal 0. We establish existence and multiplicity results for nodal solutions to the problems if either f(0) = 0, f(infinity) = infinity or f(0) = infinity, f(0) = 0, where f (s)/s approaches f(0) and f(infinity) as s approaches 0 and infinity, respectively. We use bifurcation techniques to prove our main results. (C) 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Regression to the mean: what it is and how to deal with it

Background Regression to the mean (RTM) is a statistical phenomenon that can make natural variation in repeated data look like real change. It happens when unusually large or small measurements tend to be followed by measurements that are closer to the mean. Methods We give some examples of the phenomenon, and discuss methods to overcome it at the design and analysis stages of a study. Results The effect of RTM in a sample becomes more noticeable with increasing measurement error and when follow-up measurements are only examined on a sub-sample selected using a baseline value. Conclusions RTM is a ubiquitous phenomenon in repeated data and should always be considered as a possible cause of an observed change. Its effect can be alleviated through better study design and use of suitable statistical methods.

Heavy tails, importance sampling and cross-entropy

We consider the problem of estimating P(Yi + (...) + Y-n > x) by importance sampling when the Yi are i.i.d. and heavy-tailed. The idea is to exploit the cross-entropy method as a toot for choosing good parameters in the importance sampling distribution; in doing so, we use the asymptotic description that given P(Y-1 + (...) + Y-n > x), n - 1 of the Yi have distribution F and one the conditional distribution of Y given Y > x. We show in some specific parametric examples (Pareto and Weibull) how this leads to precise answers which, as demonstrated numerically, are close to being variance minimal within the parametric class under consideration. Related problems for M/G/l and GI/G/l queues are also discussed.

A time-domain test for some types of nonlinearity

The bispectrum and third-order moment can be viewed as equivalent tools for testing for the presence of nonlinearity in stationary time series. This is because the bispectrum is the Fourier transform of the third-order moment. An advantage of the bispectrum is that its estimator comprises terms that are asymptotically independent at distinct bifrequencies under the null hypothesis of linearity. An advantage of the third-order moment is that its values in any subset of joint lags can be used in the test, whereas when using the bispectrum the entire (or truncated) third-order moment is required to construct the Fourier transform. In this paper, we propose a test for nonlinearity based upon the estimated third-order moment. We use the phase scrambling bootstrap method to give a nonparametric estimate of the variance of our test statistic under the null hypothesis. Using a simulation study, we demonstrate that the test obtains its target significance level, with large power, when compared to an existing standard parametric test that uses the bispectrum. Further we show how the proposed test can be used to identify the source of nonlinearity due to interactions at specific frequencies. We also investigate implications for heuristic diagnosis of nonstationarity.

Use of the EM algorithm to detect QTL affecting multiple-traits in an across half-sib family analysis

QTL detection experiments in livestock species commonly use the half-sib design. Each male is mated to a number of females, each female producing a limited number of progeny. Analysis consists of attempting to detect associations between phenotype and genotype measured on the progeny. When family sizes are limiting experimenters may wish to incorporate as much information as possible into a single analysis. However, combining information across sires is problematic because of incomplete linkage disequilibrium between the markers and the QTL in the population. This study describes formulae for obtaining MLEs via the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm for use in a multiple-trait, multiple-family analysis. A model specifying a QTL with only two alleles, and a common within sire error variance is assumed. Compared to single-family analyses, power can be improved up to fourfold with multi-family analyses. The accuracy and precision of QTL location estimates are also substantially improved. With small family sizes, the multi-family, multi-trait analyses reduce substantially, but not totally remove, biases in QTL effect estimates. In situations where multiple QTL alleles are segregating the multi-family analysis will average out the effects of the different QTL alleles.

Removable singularities for p-harmonic maps: The subquadratic case

We prove a removable singularity theorem for p-harmonic maps in the subquadratic case. The theorem states that an isolated singularity of a weakly p-harmonic map is removable if the energy is sufficiently small in a neighbourhood of the singularity.

Subgeometric rates of convergence for a class of continuous-time Markov process

Let (Phi(t))(t is an element of R+) be a Harris ergodic continuous-time Markov process on a general state space, with invariant probability measure pi. We investigate the rates of convergence of the transition function P-t(x, (.)) to pi; specifically, we find conditions under which r(t) vertical bar vertical bar P-t (x, (.)) - pi vertical bar vertical bar -> 0 as t -> infinity, for suitable subgeometric rate functions r(t), where vertical bar vertical bar - vertical bar vertical bar denotes the usual total variation norm for a signed measure. We derive sufficient conditions for the convergence to hold, in terms of the existence of suitable points on which the first hitting time moments are bounded. In particular, for stochastically ordered Markov processes, explicit bounds on subgeometric rates of convergence are obtained. These results are illustrated in several examples.

Uniqueness criteria for continuous-time Markov chains with general transition structures

We derive necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of bounded or summable solutions to systems of linear equations associated with Markov chains. This substantially extends a famous result of G. E. H. Reuter, which provides a convenient means of checking various uniqueness criteria for birth-death processes. Our result allows chains with much more general transition structures to be accommodated. One application is to give a new proof of an important result of M. F. Chen concerning upwardly skip-free processes. We then use our generalization of Reuter's lemma to prove new results for downwardly skip-free chains, such as the Markov branching process and several of its many generalizations. This permits us to establish uniqueness criteria for several models, including the general birth, death, and catastrophe process, extended branching processes, and asymptotic birth-death processes, the latter being neither upwardly skip-free nor downwardly skip-free.

Primary Fields and Screening Currents of gl (2/2) non-unitary conformal field theory

The non-semisimple gl(2)k current superalgebra in the standard basis and the corresponding non-unitary conformal field theory are investigated. Infinite families of primary fields corresponding to all finite-dimensional irreducible typical and atypical representations of gl(212) and three (two even and one odd) screening currents of the first kind are constructed explicitly in terms of ten free fields. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.

Axial Anomaly for Eguchi-Hanson Metrics with Nonzero Total Mass

We compute the Dirac indexes for. the two spin structures kappa(0) and kappa(1) for Eguchi-Hanson metrics with nonzero total mass. It shows that the Dirac indexes do not vanish in general, and axial anomaly exists. When the metric has zero total mass, the Dirac index vanishes for the spin structure no, and no axial anomaly exists in this case.