Tillering in grain sorghum over a wide range of population densities: Modelling dynamics of tiller fertility

The prediction of tillering is poor or absent in existing sorghum crop models even though fertile tillers contribute significantly to grain yield. The objective of this study was to identify general quantitative relationships underpinning tiller dynamics of sorghum for a broad range of assimilate availabilities. Emergence, phenology, leaf area development and fertility of individual main calms and tillers were quantified weekly in plants grown at one of four plant densities ranging from two to 16 plants m(-2). On any given day, a tiller was considered potentially fertile (a posteriori) if its number of leaves continued to increase thereafter. The dynamics of potentially fertile tiller number per plant varied greatly with plant density, but could generally be described by three determinants, stable across plant densities: tiller emergence rate aligned with leaf ligule appearance rate; cessation of tiller emergence occurred at a stable leaf area index; and rate of decrease in potentially fertile tillers was linearly related to the ratio of realized to potential leaf area growth. Realized leaf area growth is the measured increase in leaf area, whereas potential leaf area growth is the estimated increase in leaf area if all potentially fertile tillers were to continue to develop. Procedures to predict this ratio, by estimating realized leaf area per plant from intercepted radiation and potential leaf area per plant from the number and type of developing axes, are presented. While it is suitable for modelling tiller dynamics in grain sorghum, this general framework needs to be validated by testing it in different environments and for other cultivars. (C) 2002 Annals of Botany Company.

Simulation of the load-unload response ratio and critical sensitivity in the lattice solid model

The Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is an intermediate-term earthquake prediction approach that has shown considerable promise. It involves calculating the ratio of a specified energy release measure during loading and unloading where loading and unloading periods are determined from the earth tide induced perturbations in the Coulomb Failure Stress on optimally oriented faults. In the lead-up to large earthquakes, high LURR values are frequently observed a few months or years prior to the event. These signals may have a similar origin to the observed accelerating seismic moment release (AMR) prior to many large earthquakes or may be due to critical sensitivity of the crust when a large earthquake is imminent. As a first step towards studying the underlying physical mechanism for the LURR observations, numerical studies are conducted using the particle based lattice solid model (LSM) to determine whether LURR observations can be reproduced. The model is initialized as a heterogeneous 2-D block made up of random-sized particles bonded by elastic-brittle links. The system is subjected to uniaxial compression from rigid driving plates on the upper and lower edges of the model. Experiments are conducted using both strain and stress control to load the plates. A sinusoidal stress perturbation is added to the gradual compressional loading to simulate loading and unloading cycles and LURR is calculated. The results reproduce signals similar to those observed in earthquake prediction practice with a high LURR value followed by a sudden drop prior to macroscopic failure of the sample. The results suggest that LURR provides a good predictor for catastrophic failure in elastic-brittle systems and motivate further research to study the underlying physical mechanisms and statistical properties of high LURR values. The results provide encouragement for earthquake prediction research and the use of advanced simulation models to probe the physics of earthquakes.

Simulation of the micro-physics of rocks using LSMearth

The particle-based Lattice Solid Model (LSM) was developed to provide a basis to study the physics of rocks and the nonlinear dynamics of earthquakes (MORA and PLACE, 1994; PLACE and MORA, 1999). A new modular and flexible LSM approach has been developed that allows different microphysics to be easily included in or removed from the model. The approach provides a virtual laboratory where numerical experiments can easily be set up and all measurable quantities visualised. The proposed approach provides a means to simulate complex phenomena such as fracturing or localisation processes, and enables the effect of different micro-physics on macroscopic behaviour to be studied. The initial 2-D model is extended to allow three-dimensional simulations to be performed and particles of different sizes to be specified. Numerical bi-axial compression experiments under different confining pressure are used to calibrate the model. By tuning the different microscopic parameters (such as coefficient of friction, microscopic strength and distribution of grain sizes), the macroscopic strength of the material and can be adjusted to be in agreement with laboratory experiments, and the orientation of fractures is consistent with the theoretical value predicted based on Mohr-Coulomb diagram. Simulations indicate that 3-D numerical models have different macroscopic properties than in 2-D and, hence, the model must be recalibrated for 3-D simulations. These numerical experiments illustrate that the new approach is capable of simulating typical rock fracture behaviour. The new model provides a basis to investigate nucleation, rupture and slip pulse propagation in complex fault zones without the previous model limitations of a regular low-level surface geometry and being restricted to two-dimensions.

Simulation of the influence of rate- and state-dependent friction on the macroscopic behavior of complex fault zones with the lattice solid model

In order to understand the earthquake nucleation process, we need to understand the effective frictional behavior of faults with complex geometry and fault gouge zones. One important aspect of this is the interaction between the friction law governing the behavior of the fault on the microscopic level and the resulting macroscopic behavior of the fault zone. Numerical simulations offer a possibility to investigate the behavior of faults on many different scales and thus provide a means to gain insight into fault zone dynamics on scales which are not accessible to laboratory experiments. Numerical experiments have been performed to investigate the influence of the geometric configuration of faults with a rate- and state-dependent friction at the particle contacts on the effective frictional behavior of these faults. The numerical experiments are designed to be similar to laboratory experiments by DIETERICH and KILGORE (1994) in which a slide-hold-slide cycle was performed between two blocks of material and the resulting peak friction was plotted vs. holding time. Simulations with a flat fault without a fault gouge have been performed to verify the implementation. These have shown close agreement with comparable laboratory experiments. The simulations performed with a fault containing fault gouge have demonstrated a strong dependence of the critical slip distance D-c on the roughness of the fault surfaces and are in qualitative agreement with laboratory experiments.

Parallel simulation system for earthquake generation: Fault analysis modules and parallel coupling analysis

Solid earth simulations have recently been developed to address issues such as natural disasters, global environmental destruction and the conservation of natural resources. The simulation of solid earth phenomena involves the analysis of complex structures including strata, faults, and heterogeneous material properties. Simulation of the generation and cycle of earthquakes is particularly important, but such simulations require the analysis of complex fault dynamics. GeoFEM is a parallel finite-element analysis system intended for solid earth field phenomena problems. This paper describes recent development in the GeoFEM project for the simulation of earthquake generation and cycles.

An overview of APSIM, a model designed for farming systems simulation

The Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) is a modular modelling framework that has been developed by the Agricultural Production Systems Research Unit in Australia. APSIM was developed to simulate biophysical process in farming systems, in particular where there is interest in the economic and ecological outcomes of management practice in the face of climatic risk. The paper outlines APSIM's structure and provides details of the concepts behind the different plant, soil and management modules. These modules include a diverse range of crops, pastures and trees, soil processes including water balance, N and P transformations, soil pH, erosion and a full range of management controls. Reports of APSIM testing in a diverse range of systems and environments are summarised. An example of model performance in a long-term cropping systems trial is provided. APSIM has been used in a broad range of applications, including support for on-farm decision making, farming systems design for production or resource management objectives, assessment of the value of seasonal climate forecasting, analysis of supply chain issues in agribusiness activities, development of waste management guidelines, risk assessment for government policy making and as a guide to research and education activity. An extensive citation list for these model testing and application studies is provided. Crown Copyright (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Yield responses to ethephon for unshaken and mechanically shaken macadamia

Ethephon promotes fruit abscission and accelerates harvest of macadamia, Macadamia integrifolia (Proteaceae), but has limited use due to concerns that associated abscission of inner-canopy leaves may reduce subsequent yield and nut quality. Yield and quality were monitored for 2 years following ethephon application to both unshaken and mechanically shaken trees of the late-abscising cultivar, A16. Nut quality was not adversely affected in subsequent seasons, but effects on yield varied. In 3 of 6 experiments, ethephon reduced yield in the year after application. However, in 4 of the 6 experiments, 2 years of ethephon application greatly elevated yield in the third year. This was not a compensating recovery from low second-year yield, as third-year yield of trees that received only 1 ethephon treatment did not differ from yield of control trees. Ethephon-assisted harvest remains feasible for macadamia, although further work is warranted given the potential risks and considerable benefits for subsequent yield. Inner canopy defoliation, resulting from ethephon use, could represent a canopy management technique for dense-canopy fruit trees.

An approach to verifying and debugging simulation models governed by ordinary differential equations: Part 1. Methodology for residual generation

For dynamic simulations to be credible, verification of the computer code must be an integral part of the modelling process. This two-part paper describes a novel approach to verification through program testing and debugging. In Part 1, a methodology is presented for detecting and isolating coding errors using back-to-back testing. Residuals are generated by comparing the output of two independent implementations, in response to identical inputs. The key feature of the methodology is that a specially modified observer is created using one of the implementations, so as to impose an error-dependent structure on these residuals. Each error can be associated with a fixed and known subspace, permitting errors to be isolated to specific equations in the code. It is shown that the geometric properties extend to multiple errors in either one of the two implementations. Copyright (C) 2003 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

An approach to verifying and debugging simulation models governed by ordinary differential equations: Part 2. Residuals analysis and a case study

In Part 1 of this paper a methodology for back-to-back testing of simulation software was described. Residuals with error-dependent geometric properties were generated. A set of potential coding errors was enumerated, along with a corresponding set of feature matrices, which describe the geometric properties imposed on the residuals by each of the errors. In this part of the paper, an algorithm is developed to isolate the coding errors present by analysing the residuals. A set of errors is isolated when the subspace spanned by their combined feature matrices corresponds to that of the residuals. Individual feature matrices are compared to the residuals and classified as 'definite', 'possible' or 'impossible'. The status of 'possible' errors is resolved using a dynamic subset testing algorithm. To demonstrate and validate the testing methodology presented in Part 1 and the isolation algorithm presented in Part 2, a case study is presented using a model for biological wastewater treatment. Both single and simultaneous errors that are deliberately introduced into the simulation code are correctly detected and isolated. Copyright (C) 2003 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

Genotype and environment effects on dynamics of harvest index during grain filling in sorghum

An approach based on a linear rate of increase in harvest index (141) with time after anthesis has been used as a simple means-to predict grain growth and yield in many crop simulation models. When applied to diverse situations, however, this approach has been found to introduce significant error in grain yield predictions. Accordingly, this study was undertaken to examine the stability of the HI approach for yield prediction in sorghum [Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench]. Four field experiments were conducted under nonlimiting water. and N conditions. The experiments were sown at times that ensured a broad range in temperature and radiation conditions. Treatments consisted of two population densities and three genotypes varying in maturity. Frequent sequential harvests were used to monitor crop growth, yield, and the dynamics of 111. Experiments varied greatly in yield and final HI. There was also a tendency for lower HI with later maturity. Harvest index dynamics also varied among experiments and, to a lesser extent, among treatments within experiments. The variation was associated mostly with the linear rate of increase in HI and timing of cessation of that increase. The average rate of HI increase was 0.0198 d(-1), but this was reduced considerably (0.0147) in one experiment that matured in cool conditions. The variations found in IN dynamics could be largely explained by differences in assimilation during grain filling and remobilization of preanthesis assimilate. We concluded that this level of variation in HI dynamics limited the general applicability of the HI approach in yield prediction and suggested a potential alternative for testing.

Simultaneous FT-NIR and ESR analyses to yield propagation rate coefficients for polymerization of methyl methacrylate based monomers

A hyphenated instrumental approach has been used to obtain reliable values for the propagation rate coefficients as a function of conversion for polymerizations of methyl methacrylate (MMA) and a mixture of MMA and ethyleneglycol dimethacrylate (EGDMA) with a 1:1 concentration of double bonds, from near the onset of the Trommsdorf region into the glass region. ESR spectroscopy was used to measure the radical concentration while FT-NIR fibre-optic spectroscopy was employed to measure instantaneously the double-bond concentration within the temperature-controlled cavity of the ESR instrument during polymerization. The advantage of this approach to the measurement of the rate coefficient is that it is equally applicable to branching and linear polymerizations. For the polymerization of methyl methacrylate, the values of the rate coefficient at the lowest conversions at which reliable values could be obtained were in agreement with recently reported values obtained by the PLP-SEC method. For the lowest conversions, the values obtained were 403 1 mol(-1) s(-1) at 306 K for MMA and 5201 mol(-1) s(-1) at 310 K for a 1:1 mixture of MMA and EGDMA. (C) 2003 Society of Chemical Industry.

Molecular transport in nanopores

Simulation of the transport of methane in cylindrical silica mesopores have been performed using equilibrium and nonequilibrium molecular dynamics (NEMD) as well as dual control volume grand canonical molecular dynamics methods. It is demonstrated that all three techniques yield the same transport coefficient even in the presence of viscous flow. A modified locally averaged density model for viscous flow, combined with consideration of wall slip through a frictional condition, gives a convincing interpretation of the variation of the transport coefficient over a wide range of densities, and for various pore sizes and temperatures. Wall friction coefficients extracted from NEMD simulations are found to be consistent with momentum transfer arguments, and the approach is shown to be more meaningful than the classical slip length concept. (C) 2003 American Institute of Physics.

A yield architecture framework to explain adaptation of pearl millet to environmental stress

Functional knowledge of the physiological basis of crop adaptation to stress is a prerequisite for exploiting specific adaptation to stress environments in breeding programs. This paper presents an analysis of yield components for pearl millet, to explain the specific adaptation of local landraces to stress environments in Rajasthan, India. Six genotypes, ranging from high-tillering traditional landraces to low-tillering open-pollinated modern cultivars, were grown in 20 experiments, covering a range of nonstress and drought stress patterns. In each experiment, yield components (particle number, grain number, 100 grain mass) were measured separately for main shoots, basal tillers, and nodal tillers. Under optimum conditions, landraces had a significantly lower grain yield than the cultivars, but no significant differences were observed at yield levels around 1 ton ha(-1). This genotype x environment interaction for grain yield was due to a difference in yield strategy, where landraces aimed at minimising the risk of a crop failure under stress conditions, and modem cultivars aimed at maximising yield potential under optimum conditions. A key aspect of the adaptation of landraces was the small size of the main shoot panicle, as it minimised (1) the loss of productive tillers during stem elongation; (2) the delay in anthesis if mid-season drought occurs; and (3) the reduction in panicle productivity of the basal tillers under stress. In addition, a low investment in structural panicle weight, relative to vegetative crop growth rate, promoted the production of nodal tillers, providing a mechanism to compensate for reduced basal tiller productivity if stress occurred around anthesis. A low maximum 100 grain mass also ensured individual grain mass was little affected by environmental conditions. The strategy of the high-tillering landraces carries a yield penalty under optimum conditions, but is expected to minimise the risk of a crop failure, particularly if mid-season drought stress occurs. The yield architecture of low-tillering varieties, by contrast, will be suited to end-of-season drought stress, provided anthesis is early. Application of the above adaptation mechanisms into a breeding program could enable the identification of plant types that match the prevalent stress patterns in the target environments. (C) 2003 E.J. van Oosterom. Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.