Production under uncertainty and choice under uncertainty in the emergence of generalized expected utility theory

This paper presents a personal view of the interaction between the analysis of choice under uncertainty and the analysis of production under uncertainty. Interest in the foundations of the theory of choice under uncertainty was stimulated by applications of expected utility theory such as the Sandmo model of production under uncertainty. This interest led to the development of generalized models including rank-dependent expected utility theory. In turn, the development of generalized expected utility models raised the question of whether such models could be used in the analysis of applied problems such as those involving production under uncertainty. Finally, the revival of the state-contingent approach led to the recognition of a fundamental duality between choice problems and production problems.

A spectral-based cusum test of evolutionary change

We develop a test of evolutionary change that incorporates a null hypothesis of homogeneity, which encompasses time invariance in the variance and autocovariance structure of residuals from estimated econometric relationships. The test framework is based on examining whether shifts in spectral decomposition between two frames of data are significant. Rejection of the null hypothesis will point not only to weak nonstationarity but to shifts in the structure of the second-order moments of the limiting distribution of the random process. This would indicate that the second-order properties of any underlying attractor set has changed in a statistically significant way, pointing to the presence of evolutionary change. A demonstration of the test's applicability to a real-world macroeconomic problem is accomplished by applying the test to the Australian Building Society Deposits (ABSD) model.

A preliminary phylogeny of the scale insects (Hemiptera : Sternorrhyncha : Coccoidea) based on nuclear small-subunit ribosomal DNA

Scale insects (Hemiptera: Sternorrhyncha: Coccoidea) are a speciose and morphologically specialized group of plant-feeding bugs in which evolutionary relationships and thus higher classification are controversial. Sequences derived from nuclear small-subunit ribosomal DNA were used to generate a preliminary molecular phylogeny for the Coccoidea based on 39 species representing 14 putative families. Monophyly of the archaeococcoids (comprising Ortheziidae, Margarodidae sensu lato, and Phenacoleachia) was equivocal, whereas monophyly of the neococcoids was supported. Putoidae, represented by Puto yuccae, was found to be outside the remainder of the neococcoid clade. These data are consistent with a single origin (in the ancestor of the neococcoid clade) of a chromosome system involving paternal genome elimination in males. Pseudococcidae (mealybugs) appear to be sister to the rest of the neococcoids and there are indications that Coccidae (soft scales) and Kerriidae (lac scales) are sister taxa. The Eriococcidae (felt scales) was not recovered as a monophyletic group and the eriococcid genus Eriococcus sensu lato was polyphyletic. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved.

An agent-based approach to modelling driver route choice behaviour under the influence of real-time information

This paper presents an agent-based approach to modelling individual driver behaviour under the influence of real-time traffic information. The driver behaviour models developed in this study are based on a behavioural survey of drivers which was conducted on a congested commuting corridor in Brisbane, Australia. Commuters' responses to travel information were analysed and a number of discrete choice models were developed to determine the factors influencing drivers' behaviour and their propensity to change route and adjust travel patterns. Based on the results obtained from the behavioural survey, the agent behaviour parameters which define driver characteristics, knowledge and preferences were identified and their values determined. A case study implementing a simple agent-based route choice decision model within a microscopic traffic simulation tool is also presented. Driver-vehicle units (DVUs) were modelled as autonomous software components that can each be assigned a set of goals to achieve and a database of knowledge comprising certain beliefs, intentions and preferences concerning the driving task. Each DVU provided route choice decision-making capabilities, based on perception of its environment, that were similar to the described intentions of the driver it represented. The case study clearly demonstrated the feasibility of the approach and the potential to develop more complex driver behavioural dynamics based on the belief-desire-intention agent architecture. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Indirect certainty equivalents for the firm facing price and production uncertainty

Producer decisionmaking under uncertainty is characterized using indirect objective functions. The characterization is for the class of producers with continuous and nondecreasing preferences over stochastic incomes who face both price and production uncertainty. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

The sit-up: complex kinematics and muscle activity in voluntary axial movement

This paper describes the kinematics and muscle activity associated with the standard sit-up, as a first step in the investigation of complex motor coordination. Eight normal human subjects lay on a force table and performed at least 15 sit-ups, with the arms across the chest and the legs straight and unconstrained. Several subjects also performed sit-ups with an additional weight added to the head. Support surface forces were recorded to calculate the location of the center of pressure and center of gravity; conventional motion analysis was used to measure segmental positions; and surface EMG was recorded from eight muscles. While the sit-up consists of two serial components, 'trunk curling' and 'footward pelvic rotation', it can be further subdivided into five phases, based on the kinematics. Phases I and II comprise trunk curling. Phase I consists of neck and upper trunk flexion, and phase II consists of lumbar trunk lifting. Phase II corresponds to the point of peak muscle contraction and maximum postural instability, the 'critical point' of the sit-up. Phases III-V comprise footward pelvic rotation. Phase III begins with pelvic rotation towards the feet. phase W with leg lowering, and phase V with contact between the legs and the support surface. The overall pattern of muscle activity was complex with times of EMG onset, peak activity, offset, and duration differing for different muscles. This complex pattern changed qualitatively from one phase to the next, suggesting that the roles of different muscles and, as a consequence, the overall form of coordination, change during the sit-up. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Finite-difference time-domain-based studies of MRI pulsed field gradient-induced eddy currents inside the human body

In modern magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), patients are exposed to strong, rapidly switching magnetic gradient fields that, in extreme cases, may be able to elicit nerve stimulation. This paper presents theoretical investigations into the spatial distribution of induced current inside human tissues caused by pulsed z-gradient fields. A variety of gradient waveforms have been studied. The simulations are based on a new, high-definition, finite-difference time-domain method and a realistic inhomogeneous 10-mm resolution human body model with appropriate tissue parameters. it was found that the eddy current densities are affected not only by the pulse sequences but by many parameters such as the position of the body inside the gradient set, the local biological material properties and the geometry of the body. The discussion contains a comparison of these results with previous results found in the literature. This study and the new methods presented herein will help to further investigate the biological effects caused by the switched gradient fields in a MRI scan. (C) 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Spatial and temporal variation in distribution of mangroves in Moreton Bay, subtropical Australia: a comparison of pattern metrics and change detection analyses based on aerial photographs

An assessment of the changes in the distribution and extent of mangroves within Moreton Bay, southeast Queensland, Australia, was carried out. Two assessment methods were evaluated: spatial and temporal pattern metrics analysis, and change detection analysis. Currently, about 15,000 ha of mangroves are present in Moreton Bay. These mangroves are important ecosystems, but are subject to disturbance from a number of sources. Over the past 25 years, there has been a loss of more than 3800 ha, as a result of natural losses and mangrove clearing (e.g. for urban and industrial development, agriculture and aquaculture). However, areas of new mangroves have become established over the same time period, offsetting these losses to create a net loss of about 200 ha. These new mangroves have mainly appeared in the southern bay region and the bay islands, particularly on the landward edge of existing mangroves. In addition, spatial patterns and species composition of mangrove patches have changed. The pattern metrics analysis provided an overview of mangrove distribution and change in the form of single metric values, while the change detection analysis gave a more detailed and spatially explicit description of change. An analysis of the effects of spatial scales on the pattern metrics indicated that they were relatively insensitive to scale at spatial resolutions less than 50 m, but that most metrics became sensitive at coarser resolutions, a finding which has implications for mapping of mangroves based on remotely sensed data. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Predicting energy requirements in the clinical setting: Are current methods evidence based?

Estimating energy requirements is necessary in clinical practice when indirect calorimetry is impractical. This paper systematically reviews current methods for estimating energy requirements. Conclusions include: there is discrepancy between the characteristics of populations upon which predictive equations are based and current populations; tools are not well understood, and patient care can be compromised by inappropriate application of the tools. Data comparing tools and methods are presented and issues for practitioners are discussed. (C) 2003 International Life Sciences Institute.