Cost-effectiveness of psychological and pharmacological interventions for generalized anxiety disorder and panic disorder

Objective: To assess from a health sector perspective the incremental cost-effectiveness of interventions for generalized anxiety disorder (cognitive behavioural therapy [CBT] and serotonin and noradrenaline reuptake inhibitors [SNRIs]) and panic disorder (CBT, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors [SSRIs] and tricyclic antidepressants [TCAs]). Method: The health benefit is measured as a reduction in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), based on effect size calculations from meta-analyses of randomised controlled trials. An assessment on second stage filters ('equity', 'strength of evidence', 'feasibility' and 'acceptability to stakeholders') is also undertaken to incorporate additional factors that impact on resource allocation decisions. Costs and benefits are calculated for a period of one year for the eligible population (prevalent cases of generalized anxiety disorder/panic disorder identified in the National Survey of Mental Health and Wellbeing, extrapolated to the Australian population in the year 2000 for those aged 18 years and older). Simulation modelling techniques are used to present 95% uncertainty intervals (UI) around the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). Results: Compared to current practice, CBT by a psychologist on a public salary is the most cost-effective intervention for both generalized anxiety disorder (A$6900/DALY saved; 95% UI A$4000 to A$12 000) and panic disorder (A$6800/DALY saved; 95% UI A$2900 to A$15 000). Cognitive behavioural therapy results in a greater total health benefit than the drug interventions for both anxiety disorders, although equity and feasibility concerns for CBT interventions are also greater. Conclusions: Cognitive behavioural therapy is the most effective and cost-effective intervention for generalized anxiety disorder and panic disorder. However, its implementation would require policy change to enable more widespread access to a sufficient number of trained therapists for the treatment of anxiety disorders.

Comparing predictions of extinction risk using models and subjective judgement

Models of population dynamics are commonly used to predict risks in ecology, particularly risks of population decline. There is often considerable uncertainty associated with these predictions. However, alternatives to predictions based on population models have not been assessed. We used simulation models of hypothetical species to generate the kinds of data that might typically be available to ecologists and then invited other researchers to predict risks of population declines using these data. The accuracy of the predictions was assessed by comparison with the forecasts of the original model. The researchers used either population models or subjective judgement to make their predictions. Predictions made using models were only slightly more accurate than subjective judgements of risk. However, predictions using models tended to be unbiased, while subjective judgements were biased towards over-estimation. Psychology literature suggests that the bias of subjective judgements is likely to vary somewhat unpredictably among people, depending on their stake in the outcome. This will make subjective predictions more uncertain and less transparent than those based on models. (C) 2004 Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.

Darwinian grandparenting: Preferential investment in more certain kin

Studies on grandparental investment have revealed that mothers fathers are emotionally closer to their grandchildren than are fathers' mothers. In the current study, it was hypothesized that this difference is caused by the fact that fathers' mothers often have the potential to invest in genetically more certain kin (children through their daughters). To test this hypothesis, 787 participants rated their emotional closeness and exposure to their grandparents and indicated whether they had cousins through paternal and maternal aunts and uncles. Results indicated that participants felt closer to mothers' fathers than fathers' mothers only when alternate investment outlets for fathers' mothers were available. Closeness ratings to fathers fathers also were reduced when they had grandchildren through their daughters. Exposure to grandparents revealed a similar pattern of findings but did not show the same sensitivity to the presence of more certain kin and did not appear to account for the closeness ratings.

Implications of current ecological thinking for biodiversity conservation: A review of the salient issues

Given escalating concern worldwide about the loss of biodiversity, and given biodiversity's centrality to quality of life, it is imperative that current ecological knowledge fully informs societal decision making. Over the past two decades, ecological science has undergone many significant shifts in emphasis and perspective, which have important implications for how we manage ecosystems and species. In particular, a shift has occurred from the equilibrium paradigm to one that recognizes the dynamic, non-equilibrium nature of ecosystems. Revised thinking about the spatial and temporal dynamics of ecological systems has important implications for management. Thus, it is of growing concern to ecologists and others that these recent developments have not been translated into information useful to managers and policy makers. Many conservation policies and plans are still based on equilibrium assumptions. A fundamental difficulty with integrating current ecological thinking into biodiversity policy and management planning is that field observations have yet to provide compelling evidence for many of the relationships suggested by non-equilibrium ecology. Yet despite this scientific uncertainty, management and policy decisions must still be made. This paper was motivated by the need for considered scientific debate on the significance of current ideas in theoretical ecology for biodiversity conservation. This paper aims to provide a platform for such discussion by presenting a critical synthesis of recent ecological literature that (1) identifies core issues in ecological theory, and (2) explores the implications of current ecological thinking for biodiversity conservation.

Separation and hedging results with state-contingent production

A state-contingent model of production under uncertainty is developed and compared with more traditional models of production under uncertainty. Producer behaviour with both production and price risk, in the presence and in the absence of futures and forward markets, is analysed in this state-contingent framework. Conditions for the optimal hedge to be positive or negative are derived. We also show that, under plausible conditions, a risk-averse producer facing price uncertainty and the ability to hedge price risk will never willingly adopt a nonstochastic technology. New separation results, which hold in the presence of both price and production risk, are then developed. These separation results generalize Townsend's spanning results by reducing the number of necessary forward markets by one.

Optimal quantum measurements for phase-shift estimation in optical interferometry

Quantum information theory, applied to optical interferometry, yields a 1/n scaling of phase uncertainty Delta phi independent of the applied phase shift phi, where n is the number of photons in the interferometer. This 1/n scaling is achieved provided that the output state is subjected to an optimal phase measurement. We establish this scaling law for both passive (linear) and active (nonlinear) interferometers and identify the coefficient of proportionality. Whereas a highly nonclassical state is required to achieve optimal scaling for passive interferometry, a classical input state yields a 1/n scaling of phase uncertainty for active interferometry.

Potential demand for hedging by Australian wheat producers

The potential for hedging Australian wheat with the new Sydney Futures Exchange wheat contract is examined using a theoretical hedging model parametised from previous studies. The optimal hedging ratio for an 'average' wheat farmer was found to be zero under reasonable assumptions about transaction costs and based on previously published measures of risk aversion. The estimated optimal hedging ratios were found by simulation to be quite sensitive to assumptions about the degree of risk aversion. If farmers are significantly more risk averse than is currently believed, then there is likely to be an active interest in the new futures market.

Characterizing QALYs under a general rank dependent utility model

This paper provides a characterization of QALYs, the most important outcome measure in medical decision making, in the context of a general rank dependent utility model. We show that both for chronic and for nonchronic health states the characterization of QALYs depends on intuitive conditions. This facilitates the assessment of the validity of QALYs in rank dependent non-expected utility theories and a comparison with other utility based measures of health.

A social identity theory of leadership

A social identity theory of leadership is described that views leadership as a group process generated by social categorization and prototype-based depersonalization processes associated with social identity. Group identification, as self-categorization, constructs an intragroup prototypicality gradient that invests the most prototypical member with the appearance of having influence; the appearance arises because members cognitively and behaviorally conform to the prototype. The appearance of influence becomes a reality through depersonalized social attraction processes that make followers agree and comply with the leader's ideas and suggestions. Consensual social attraction also imbues the leader with apparent status and creates a status-based structural differentiation within the group into leader(s) and followers, which has characteristics of unequal status intergroup relations. In addition, a fundamental attribution process constructs a charismatic leadership personality for the leader, which further empowers the leader and sharpens the leader-follower status differential. Empirical support for the theory is reviewed and a range of implications discussed, including intergroup dimensions, uncertainty reduction and extremism, power, and pitfalls of prototype-based leadership.

Peripheral withdrawal recruits distinct central nuclei in morphine-dependent rats

This study examined if brain pathways in morphine-dependent rats are activated by opioid withdrawal precipitated outside the central nervous system. Withdrawal precipitated with a peripherally acting quaternary opioid antagonist (naloxone methiodide) increased Fos expression but caused a more restricted pattern of neuronal activation than systemic withdrawal (precipitated with naloxone which enters the brain). There was no effect on locus coeruleus and significantly smaller increases in Fos neurons were produced in most other areas. However in the ventrolateral medulla (A1/C1 catecholamine neurons), nucleus of the solitary tract (A2/C2 catecholamine neurons), lateral parabrachial nucleus, supramamillary nucleus, bed nucleus of the stria terminalis. accumbens core and medial prefrontal cortex no differences in the withdrawal treatments were detected. We have shown that peripheral opioid withdrawal can affect central nervous system pathways. Crown Copyright (C) 2001 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Blink startle modulation during anticipation of pleasant and unpleasant stimuli

The present research investigated blink startle modulation during the anticipation of pleasant, unpleasant, or neutral pictures. In Experiment 1 (N = 18), participants were presented with three different tone-picture pairings. Tones differed in pitch and were followed by pleasant, neutral or unpleasant pictures. Acoustic blink reflexes were elicited during some tones and during stimulus free intervals. Blink facilitation during tones that preceded pleasant and unpleasant pictures was larger than during the tone that preceded neutral pictures. Experiment 2 (N = 10) assessed whether this difference was due to a difference in the presentation frequency of the three conditions. No difference in blink facilitation between the conditions was found when pictures of flowers and mushrooms replaced the pleasant and unpleasant pictures, indicating that picture content was instrumental in causing the differential blink facilitation in Experiment 1. The results from Experiment 1 seem to indicate that startle modulation during the anticipation of pictorial material reflects the interest in or the arousal associated with the pictures rather than picture valence.

Model-based procedure for scale-up of wet, overflow ball mills - Part III: Validation and discussion

A new ball mill scale-up procedure is developed. This procedure has been validated using seven sets of Ml-scale ball mil data. The largest ball mills in these data have diameters (inside liners) of 6.58m. The procedure can predict the 80% passing size of the circuit product to within +/-6% of the measured value, with a precision of +/-11% (one standard deviation); the re-circulating load to within +/-33% of the mass-balanced value (this error margin is within the uncertainty associated with the determination of the re-circulating load); and the mill power to within +/-5% of the measured value. This procedure is applicable for the design of ball mills which are preceded by autogenous (AG) mills, semi-autogenous (SAG) mills, crushers and flotation circuits. The new procedure is more precise and more accurate than Bond's method for ball mill scale-up. This procedure contains no efficiency correction which relates to the mill diameter. This suggests that, within the range of mill diameter studied, milling efficiency does not vary with mill diameter. This is in contrast with Bond's equation-Bond claimed that milling efficiency increases with mill diameter. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Neural adaptations to resistance training - Implications for movement control

It has long been believed that resistance training is accompanied by changes within the nervous system that play an important role in the development of strength. Many elements of the nervous system exhibit the potential for adaptation in response to resistance training, including supraspinal centres, descending neural tracts, spinal circuitry and the motor end plate connections between motoneurons and muscle fibres. Yet the specific sites of adaptation along the neuraxis have seldom been identified experimentally, and much of the evidence for neural adaptations following resistance training remains indirect. As a consequence of this current lack of knowledge, there exists uncertainty regarding the manner in which resistance training impacts upon the control and execution of functional movements. We aim to demonstrate that resistance training is likely to cause adaptations to many neural elements that are involved in the control of movement, and is therefore likely to affect movement execution during a wide range of tasks. We review a small number of experiments that provide evidence that resistance training affects the way in which muscles that have been engaged during training are recruited during related movement tasks. The concepts addressed in this article represent an important new approach to research on the effects of resistance training. They are also of considerable practical importance, since most individuals perform resistance training in the expectation that it will enhance their performance in-related functional tasks.

The effects of time delays in adaptive phase measurements

It is not possible to make measurements of the phase of an optical mode using linear optics without introducing an extra phase uncertainty. This extra phase variance is quite large for heterodyne measurements, however it is possible to reduce it to the theoretical limit of log (n) over bar (4 (n) over bar (2)) using adaptive measurements. These measurements are quite sensitive to experimental inaccuracies, especially time delays and inefficient detectors. Here it is shown that the minimum introduced phase variance when there is a time delay of tau is tau/(8 (n) over bar). This result is verified numerically, showing that the phase variance introduced approaches this limit for most of the adaptive schemes using the best final phase estimate. The main exception is the adaptive mark II scheme with simplified feedback, which is extremely sensitive to time delays. The extra phase variance due to time delays is considered for the mark I case with simplified feedback, verifying the tau /2 result obtained by Wiseman and Killip both by a more rigorous analytic technique and numerically.

Some factors affecting diagnostic accuracy

Diagnosis involves a complex and overlapping series of steps, each of which may be a source of error and of variability between clinicians. This variation may involve the ability to elicit relevant information from the client or animal, in the accuracy, objectivity and completeness of relevant memory stores, and in psychological attributes including tolerance for uncertainty and willingness to engage in constructive self-criticism. The diagnostic acumen of an individual clinician may not be constant, varying with external and personal factors, with different clients and cases, and with the use made of tests. In relation to clients, variations may occur in the ability to gain their confidence, to ask appropriate questions and to evaluate accurately both verbal and nonverbal responses. Tests may introduce problems of accuracy, validity, sensitivity, specificity, interpretation and general appropriateness for the case. Continuing effectiveness as a diagnostician therefore requires constant attention to the maintenance of adequate and up-to-date skills and knowledge relating to the animals and their diseases and to tests, and of sensitive interpersonal skills.