Comparing predictions of extinction risk using models and subjective judgement

Models of population dynamics are commonly used to predict risks in ecology, particularly risks of population decline. There is often considerable uncertainty associated with these predictions. However, alternatives to predictions based on population models have not been assessed. We used simulation models of hypothetical species to generate the kinds of data that might typically be available to ecologists and then invited other researchers to predict risks of population declines using these data. The accuracy of the predictions was assessed by comparison with the forecasts of the original model. The researchers used either population models or subjective judgement to make their predictions. Predictions made using models were only slightly more accurate than subjective judgements of risk. However, predictions using models tended to be unbiased, while subjective judgements were biased towards over-estimation. Psychology literature suggests that the bias of subjective judgements is likely to vary somewhat unpredictably among people, depending on their stake in the outcome. This will make subjective predictions more uncertain and less transparent than those based on models. (C) 2004 Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.

A prospective comparison of two models of cannabis use and psychotic relapse in early psychosis

No abstract

Virtual models of the HLA class I antigen processing pathway

Antigen recognition by cytotoxic CD8 T cells is dependent upon a number of critical steps in MHC class I antigen processing including proteosomal cleavage, TAP transport into the endoplasmic reticulum, and MHC class 1 binding. Based on extensive experimental data relating to each of these steps there is now the capacity to model individual antigen processing steps with a high degree of accuracy. This paper demonstrates the potential to bring together models of individual antigen processing steps, for example proteosome cleavage, TAP transport, and MHC binding, to build highly informative models of functional pathways. In particular, we demonstrate how an artificial neural network model of TAP transport was used to mine a HLA-binding database so as to identify H LA-binding peptides transported by TAP. This integrated model of antigen processing provided the unique insight that HLA class I alleles apparently constitute two separate classes: those that are TAP-efficient for peptide loading (HLA-B27, -A3, and -A24) and those that are TAP-inefficient (HLA-A2, -B7, and -B8). Hence, using this integrated model we were able to generate novel hypotheses regarding antigen processing, and these hypotheses are now capable of being tested experimentally. This model confirms the feasibility of constructing a virtual immune system, whereby each additional step in antigen processing is incorporated into a single modular model. Accurate models of antigen processing have implications for the study of basic immunology as well as for the design of peptide-based vaccines and other immunotherapies. (C) 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Attentional modulation of neural responses to action observation: Implications for models of the human 'mirror' system

In primates, the observation of meaningful, goaldirected actions engages a network of cortical areas located within the premotor and inferior parietal lobules. Current models suggest that activity within these regions arises relatively automatically during passive action observation without the need for topdown control. Here we used functional magnetic resonance imaging to determine whether cortical activit)' associated with action observation is modulated by the strategic allocation of selective attention. Normal observers viewed movie clips of reach-to-grasp actions while performing an easy or difficult visual discrimination at the fovea. A wholebrain analysis was performed to determine the effects of attentional load on neural responses to observed hand actions. Our results suggest that cortical areas involved in action observation are significantiy modulated by attentional load. These findings have important implications for recent attempts to link the human action-observation system to response properties of "mirror neurons" in monkeys.

Drinfeld twists and symmetric Bethe vectors of supersymmetric fermion models

We construct the Drinfeld twists ( factorizing F-matrices) of the gl(m-n)-invariant fermion model. Completely symmetric representation of the pseudo-particle creation operators of the model are obtained in the basis provided by the F-matrix ( the F-basis). We resolve the hierarchy of the nested Bethe vectors in the F-basis for the gl(m-n) supersymmetric model.

Experience-induced preference for oviposition repellents derived from a non-host plant by a specialist herbivore

Foraging adults of phytophagous insects are attracted by host-plant volatiles and supposedly repelled by volatiles from non-host plants. In behavioural control of pest insects, chemicals derived from non-host plants applied to crops are expected to repel searching adults and thereby reduce egg laying. How experience by searching adults of non-host volatiles affects their subsequent searching and oviposition behaviour has been rarely tested. In laboratory experiments, we examined the effect of experience of a non-host-plant extract on the oviposition behaviour of the diamondback moth (DBM), Plutella xylostella, a specialist herbivore of cruciferous plants. Naive ovipositing DBM females were repelled by an extract of dried leaves of Chrysanthemum morifolium, a non-host plant of DBM, but experienced females were not repelled. Instead they were attracted by host plants treated with the non-host-plant extract and laid a higher proportion of eggs on treated than on untreated host plants. Such behavioural changes induced by experience could lead to host-plant range expansion in phytophagous insects and play an important role in determining outcome for pest management of some behavioural manipulation methods.

Not so ancient: the extant crown group of Nothofagus represents a post-Gondwanan radiation

This study uses a molecular-dating approach to test hypotheses about the biogeography of Nothofagus. The molecular modelling suggests that the present-day subgenera and species date from a radiation that most likely commenced between 55 and 40 Myr ago. This rules out the possibility of a reconciled all-vicariance hypothesis for the biogeography of extant Nothofagus. However, the molecular dates for divergences between Australasian and South American taxa are consistent with the rifting of Australia and South America from Antarctica. The molecular dates further suggest a dispersal of subgenera Lophozonia and Fuscospora between Australia and New Zealand after the onset of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and west wind drift. It appears likely that the New Caledonian lineage of subgenus Brassospora diverged from the New Guinean lineage elsewhere, prior to colonizing New Caledonia. The molecular approach strongly supports fossil-based estimates that Nothofagus diverged from the rest of Fagales more than 84 Myr ago. However, the mid-Cenozoic estimate for the diversification of the four extant subgenera conflicts with the palynological interpretation because pollen fossils, attributed to all four extant subgenera, were widespread across the Weddellian province of Gondwana about 71 Myr ago. The discrepancy between the pollen and molecular dates exists even when confidence intervals from several sources of error are taken into account. In contrast, the molecular age estimates are consistent with macrofossil dates. The incongruence between pollen fossils and molecular dates could be resolved if the early pollen types represent extinct lineages, with similar types later evolving independently in the extant lineages.

Re-dating mid-Holocene betelnut (Areca catechu L.) and other plant use at Dongan, Papua New Guinea

Direct accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) dating of anaerobically preserved plant remains from the Dongan site in New Guinea, combined with assessment of preservation condition, confirms earlier doubts about the antiquity of betel-nut (Areca catechu L.) found at the site. A possible sago leaf fragment is also identified as a modem contaminant. The mid-Holocene age of other fruit and nut remains is verified using these methods. The utility of AMS dating in combination with detailed archaeobotanical assessment is demonstrated, thus improving chronometric hygiene and with it knowledge of past plant use in Oceania.

An archaeobotanical perspective on Holocene plant-use practices in lowland northern New Guinea

Existing archaeobotanical and palynological records of plant use in the northern New Guinea lowlands are reviewed in light of recent work at Kuk and theoretical refocusing on plant use practice. A practice-based approach is supported as the most useful way of investigating the highly problematical area of tropical plant food production. The existing direct record of past plant use in lowland New Guinea is considered woefully inadequate to achieve this task, as is that in Near Oceania and Island Southeast Asia. Archaeobotanical methods exist to fill the void, but full implementation requires a change in general archaeological and palaeoecological practice.

Exploring the use of Viagra in place of animal and plant potency products in traditional Chinese medicine

Recently, conservationists have debated whether consumers of animal and plant potency products used to treat erectile dysfunction (ED) in traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) might be switching to Viagra, consequently consuming fewer of these animals and plants. To address this question, a survey examined the medical decisions of male consumers of TCM in Hong Kong who were over the age of 50. As predicted, these consumers reported selectively switching to Western medicines to treat ED, but not to treat other health ailments. These findings provide support for the possibility that Viagra may have conservation benefits for certain species.

Analysis of dynamic models for structural insight and model reduction .2. A multi-stage compressor shutdown case-study

In this second paper, the three structural measures which have been developed are used in the modelling of a three stage centrifugal synthesis gas compressor. The goal of this case study is to determine the essential mathematical structure which must be incorporated into the compressor model to accurately model the shutdown of this system. A simple, accurate and functional model of the system is created via three structural measures. It was found that the model can be correctly reduced into its basic modes and that the order of the differential system can be reduced from 51(st) to 20(th). Of the 31 differential equational 21 reduce to algebraic relations, 8 become constants and 2 can be deleted thereby increasing the algebraic set from 70 to 91 equations. An interpretation is also obtained as to which physical phenomena are dominating the dynamics of the compressor add whether the compressor will enter surge during the shutdown. Comparisons of the reduced model performance against the full model are given, showing the accuracy and applicability of the approach. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd

Discrete and continuous models for dry masonry columns

The dynamic response of dry masonry columns can be approximated with finite-difference equations. Continuum models follow by replacing the difference quotients of the discrete model by corresponding differential expressions. The mathematically simplest of these models is a one-dimensional Cosserat theory. Within the presented homogenization context, the Cosserat theory is obtained by making ad hoc assumptions regarding the relative importance of certain terms in the differential expansions. The quality of approximation of the various theories is tested by comparison of the dispersion relations for bending waves with the dispersion relation of the discrete theory. All theories coincide with differences of less than 1% for wave-length-block-height (L/h) ratios bigger than 2 pi. The theory based on systematic differential approximation remains accurate up to L/h = 3 and then diverges rapidly. The Cosserat model becomes increasingly inaccurate for L/h < 2 pi. However, in contrast to the systematic approximation, the wave speed remains finite. In conclusion, considering its relative simplicity, the Cosserat model appears to be the natural starting point for the development of continuum models for blocky structures.

Plant transformation: Problems and strategies for practical application

Plant transformation is now a core research tool in plant biology and a practical tool for cultivar improvement. There are verified methods for stable introduction of novel genes into the nuclear genomes of over 120 diverse plant species. This review examines the criteria to verify plant transformation; the biological and practical requirements for transformation systems; the integration of tissue culture, gene transfer, selection, and transgene expression strategies to achieve transformation in recalcitrant species; and other constraints to plant transformation including regulatory environment, public perceptions, intellectual property, and economics. Because the costs of screening populations showing diverse genetic changes can far exceed the costs of transformation, it is important to distinguish absolute and useful transformation efficiencies. The major technical challenge facing plant transformation biology is the development of methods and constructs to produce a high proportion of plants showing predictable transgene expression without collateral genetic damage. This will require answers to a series of biological and technical questions, some of which are defined.