SPAnDX: a process-based population dynamics model to explore management and climate change impacts on an invasive alien plant, Acacia nilotica

This paper describes a process-based metapopulation dynamics and phenology model of prickly acacia, Acacia nilotica, an invasive alien species in Australia. The model, SPAnDX, describes the interactions between riparian and upland sub-populations of A. nilotica within livestock paddocks, including the effects of extrinsic factors such as temperature, soil moisture availability and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide. The model includes the effects of management events such as changing the livestock species or stocking rate, applying fire, and herbicide application. The predicted population behaviour of A. nilotica was sensitive to climate. Using 35 years daily weather datasets for five representative sites spanning the range of conditions that A. nilotica is found in Australia, the model predicted biomass levels that closely accord with expected values at each site. SPAnDX can be used as a decision-support tool in integrated weed management, and to explore the sensitivity of cultural management practices to climate change throughout the range of A. nilotica. The cohort-based DYMEX modelling package used to build and run SPAnDX provided several advantages over more traditional population modelling approaches (e.g. an appropriate specific formalism (discrete time, cohort-based, process-oriented), user-friendly graphical environment, extensible library of reusable components, and useful and flexible input/output support framework). (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

Genetic structure of Mycosphaerella fijiensis populations from Australia, Papua New Guinea and the Pacific Islands

Single-copy restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) markers were used to determine the genetic structure of Mycosphaerella fijiensis, the cause of black leaf streak (black Sigatoka) disease of banana and plantain, in the Torres Strait, Papua New Guinea (PNG), and the Pacific Islands. A moderate level of genetic variation was observed in all populations with genotypic diversity values of 60-78% of the theoretical maximum, and gene diversity (H) values between 0.269 and 0.336. All populations were at gametic equilibrium, and with the high level of genotypic diversity observed this indicated that sexual reproduction has a major role in the genetic structure of the M. fijiensis populations examined. Population differentiation was tested on several hierarchical scales. No evidence of population differentiation was observed between sites on Mer Island. A moderate level of population differentiation was observed within the Torres Strait, between Badu and Mer Islands (F-ST = 0.097). On a regional scale, the greatest differentiation was found between the populations of the Torres Strait and the Pacific. Populations from these regions were more closely related to the PNG population than to each other, suggesting they were founded in separate events from the same population.