Optimal release strategies for biological control agents: an application of stochastic dynamic programming to population management

1. Establishing biological control agents in the field is a major step in any classical biocontrol programme, yet there are few general guidelines to help the practitioner decide what factors might enhance the establishment of such agents. 2. A stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) approach, linked to a metapopulation model, was used to find optimal release strategies (number and size of releases), given constraints on time and the number of biocontrol agents available. By modelling within a decision-making framework we derived rules of thumb that will enable biocontrol workers to choose between management options, depending on the current state of the system. 3. When there are few well-established sites, making a few large releases is the optimal strategy. For other states of the system, the optimal strategy ranges from a few large releases, through a mixed strategy (a variety of release sizes), to many small releases, as the probability of establishment of smaller inocula increases. 4. Given that the probability of establishment is rarely a known entity, we also strongly recommend a mixed strategy in the early stages of a release programme, to accelerate learning and improve the chances of finding the optimal approach.

Habitat structure and egg distributions in the processionary caterpillar Ochrogaster lunifer: lessons for conservation and pest management

1. The spatial and temporal distribution of eggs laid by herbivorous insects is a crucial component of herbivore population stability, as it influences overall mortality within the population. Thus an ecologist studying populations of an endangered butterfly can do little to increase its numbers through habitat management without knowledge of its egg-laying patterns across individual host-plants under different habitat management regimes. At the other end of the spectrum, a knowledge of egg-laying behaviour can do much to control pest outbreaks by disrupting egg distributions that lead to rapid population growth. 2. The distribution of egg batches of the processionary caterpillar Ochrogaster lunifer on acacia trees was monitored in 21 habitats during 2 years in coastal Australia. The presence of egg batches on acacias was affected by host-tree 'quality' (tree size and foliar chemistry that led to increased caterpillar survival) and host-tree 'apparency' (the amount of vegetation surrounding host-trees). 3. In open homogeneous habitats, more egg batches were laid on high-quality trees, increasing potential population growth. In diverse mixed-species habitats, more egg batches were laid on low-quality highly apparent trees, reducing population growth and so reducing the potential for unstable population dynamics. The aggregation of batches on small apparent trees in diverse habitats led to outbreaks on these trees year after year, even when population levels were low, while site-wide outbreaks were rare. 4. These results predict that diverse habitats with mixed plant species should increase insect aggregation and increase population stability. In contrast, in open disturbed habitats or in regular plantations, where egg batches are more evenly distributed across high-quality hosts, populations should be more unstable, with site-wide outbreaks and extinctions being more common. 5. Mixed planting should be used on habitat regeneration sites to increase the population stability of immigrating or reintroduced insect species. Mixed planting also increases the diversity of resources, leading to higher herbivore species richness. With regard to the conservation of single species, different practices of habitat management will need to be employed depending on whether a project is concerned with methods of rapidly increasing the abundance of an endangered insect or concerned with the maintenance of a stable, established insect population that is perhaps endemic to an area. Suggestions for habitat management in these different cases are discussed. 6. Finally, intercropping can be highly effective in reducing pest outbreaks, although the economic gains of reduced pest attack may be outweighed by reduced crop yields in mixed-crop systems.

Neuromuscular-skeletal constraints upon the dynamics of unimanual and bimanual coordination

In the first of three experiments, 11 participants generated pronation and supination movements of the forearm, in time with an auditory metronome. The metronome frequency was increased in eight steps (0.25 Hz) from a base frequency of 1.75 Hz. On alternating trials, participants were required to coordinate either maximum pronation or maximum supination with each beat of the metronome. In each block of trials, the axis of rotation was either coincident with the long axis of the forearm, above this axis, or below this axis. The stability of the pronate-on-the-beat pattern, as indexed by the number of pattern changes, and the time of onset of pattern change, was greatest when the axis of rotation of the movement was below the long axis of the forearm. In contrast, the stability of the supinate-on-the-beat pattern was greatest when the axis of rotation of the movement was above the long axis of the forearm. In a second experiment, we examined how changes in the position of the axis of rotation alter the activation patterns of muscles that contribute to pronation and supination of the forearm. Variations in the relative dominance of the pronation and supination phases of the movement cycle across conditions were accounted for primarily by changes in the activation profile of flexor carpi radialis (FCR) and extensor carpi radialis longus (ECR). In the Final experiment we examined how these constraints impact upon the stability of bimanual coordination. Thirty-two participants were assigned at random to one of four conditions, each of which combined an axis of rotation configuration (bottom or top) for each limb. The participants generated both inphase (both limbs pronating simultaneously, and supinating simultaneously) and antiphase (left limb pronating and right limb supinating simultaneously, and vice versa) patterns of coordination. When the position of the axis of rotation was equivalent for the left and the right limb, transitions from antiphase to inphase patterns of coordination were Frequently observed. In marked contrast, when the position of the axis of rotation for the left and right limb was contradistinct, transitions From inphase to antiphase patterns of coordination occurred. The results demonstrated that when movements are performed in an appropriate mechanical context, inphase patterns of coordination are less stable than antiphase patterns.

Hemichordates and deuterostome evolution: robust molecular phylogenetic support for a hemichordate plus echinoderm clade

Hemichordates were traditionally allied to the chordates, but recent molecular analyses have suggested that hemichordates are a sister group to the echinoderms, a relationship that has important consequences for the interpretation of the evolution of deuterostome body plans. However, the molecular phylogenetic analyses to date have not provided robust support for the hemichordate + echinoderm clade. We use a maximum likelihood framework, including the parametric bootstrap, to reanalyze DNA data from complete mitochondrial genomes and nuclear 18S rRNA. This approach provides the first statistically significant support for the hemichordate + echinoderm clade from molecular data. This grouping implies that the ancestral deuterostome had features that included an adult with a pharynx and a dorsal nerve cord and an indirectly developing dipleurula-like larva.

Conservation farming projects in the Philippine uplands: Rhetoric and reality

The phenomenon of agricultural land degradation in the Philippine uplands has been regarded by scientists and policy-makers as a major environmental and rural development problem. Numerous conservation farming projects have been implemented in the past two decades to address this problem, apparently with little success. Most of these projects have espoused the currently fashionable principles of community-based sustainable development. This paper examines case histories of three completed upland conservation projects. The aim is to compare the rhetoric of project documents and evaluations with the reality of on-going land management practices as seen from the perspective of the land managers themselves. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Extraordinary and extensive karyotypic variation: A 48-fold range in chromosome number in the gall-inducing scale insect Apiomorpha (Hemiptera : Coccoidea : Eriococcidae)

Chromosome number reflects strong constraints on karyotype evolution, unescaped by the majority of animal taxa. Although there is commonly chromosomal polymorphism among closely related taxa, very large differences in chromosome number are rare. This study reports one of the most extensive chromosomal ranges yet reported for an animal genus. Apiomorpha Rubsaamen (Hemiptera: Coccoidea: Eriococcidae), an endemic Australian gall-inducing scale insect genus, exhibits an extraordinary 48-fold variation in chromosome number with diploid numbers ranging from 4 to about 192. Diploid complements of all other eriococcids examined to date range only from 6 to 28. Closely related species of Apiomorpha usually have very different karyotypes, to the extent that the variation within some species- groups is as great as that across the entire genus. There is extensive chromosomal variation among populations within 17 of the morphologically defined species of Apiomorpha indicating the existence of cryptic species-complexes. The extent and pattern of karyotypic variation suggests rapid chromosomal evolution via fissions and (or) fusions. It is hypothesized that chromosomal rearrangements in Apiomorpha species may be associated with these insects' tracking the radiation of their speciose host genus, Eucalyptus.

Overview, critical assessment, and conservation implications of koala distribution and abundance

Regional and national surveys provide a broadscale description of the koala's present distribution in Australia. A detailed understanding of its distribution is precluded, however, by past and continuing land clearing across large parts of the koala's range. Koala population density increased in some regions during the late 1800s and then declined dramatically in the early 1900s. The decline was associated with habitat loss, hunting, disease, fire, and drought. Declines are continuing in Queensland and New South Wales. In contrast, dense koala populations in habitat isolates in Victoria and South Australia are managed to reduce population size and browse damage. Current understanding of koala distribution and abundance suggests that the species does not meet Australian criteria as endangered or vulnerable fauna. Its conservation status needs to be reviewed, however, in light of the extensive land clearing in New South Wales and Queensland since the last (1980s) broadscale surveys. Consequently, we recommend that broadacre clearing by curtailed in New South Wales and Queensland and that regular, comprehensive, standardized, national koala surveys be undertaken. Given the fragmentation of koala habitat and regional differences in the status of the koala, we recommended that studies on regional variation in the koala be intensified and that koala ecology in fragmented and naturally restricted habitats be developed. More generally, the National Koala Conservation Strategy should be implemented.

Returns to farm-level soil conservation on tropical steep slopes: The case of the Eritrean highlands

This study conducts an economic analysis of investment in simple soil conservation technologies in the highlands of Eritrea. The data used in the analysis were obtained from a farm survey and supplemented with data from secondary sources. Risk analysis techniques are used to take account of the uncertainties regarding the relationship between soil erosion and crop yield. The financial analysis reveals negative net present values (NPVs) and internal rates of return (IRRs) below 12 per cent for various slope categories. On the other hand, the economic analysis returns positive NPVs and IRRs of over 20 per cent. The results clearly indicate that in-vestment in soil conservation technology may not be a viable short-term proposition from the farmer's point of view and yet the net social benefits are positive. There is a strong case for government to provide incentives for soil conservation in view of the economic benefits.

Conservation of the sequence and temporal expression of let-7 heterochronic regulatory RNA

Two small RNAs regulate the timing of Caenorhabditis elegans development(1,2). Transition from the first to the second larval stage fates requires the 22-nucleotide lin-4 RNA(1,3,4), and transition from late larval to adult cell fates requires the 21-nucleotide let-7 RNA 2. The lin-4 and let-7 RNA genes are not homologous to each other, but are each complementary to sequences in the 3' untranslated regions of a set of protein-coding target genes that are normally negatively regulated by the RNAs1,2,5,6. Here we have detected let-7 RNAs of similar to 21 nucleotides in samples from a wide range of animal species, including vertebrate, ascidian, hemichordate, mollusc, annelid and arthropod, but not in RNAs from several cnidarian and poriferan species, Saccharomyces cerevisiae, Escherichia coli or Arabidopsis. We did not detect lin-4 RNA in these species. We found that let-7 temporal regulation is also conserved: let-7 RNA expression is first detected at late larval stages in C. elegans and Drosophila, at 48 hours after fertilization in zebrafish, and in adult stages of annelids and molluscs. The let-7 regulatory RNA may control late temporal transitions during development across animal phylogeny.

Evolution of stress deficit and changing rates of seismicity in cellular automaton models of earthquake faults

We investigate the internal dynamics of two cellular automaton models with heterogeneous strength fields and differing nearest neighbour laws. One model is a crack-like automaton, transferring ail stress from a rupture zone to the surroundings. The other automaton is a partial stress drop automaton, transferring only a fraction of the stress within a rupture zone to the surroundings. To study evolution of stress, the mean spectral density. f(k(r)) of a stress deficit held is: examined prior to, and immediately following ruptures in both models. Both models display a power-law relationship between f(k(r)) and spatial wavenumber (k(r)) of the form f(k(r)) similar tok(r)(-beta). In the crack model, the evolution of stress deficit is consistent with cyclic approach to, and retreat from a critical state in which large events occur. The approach to criticality is driven by tectonic loading. Short-range stress transfer in the model does not affect the approach to criticality of broad regions in the model. The evolution of stress deficit in the partial stress drop model is consistent with small fluctuations about a mean state of high stress, behaviour indicative of a self-organised critical system. Despite statistics similar to natural earthquakes these simplified models lack a physical basis. physically motivated models of earthquakes also display dynamical complexity similar to that of a critical point system. Studies of dynamical complexity in physical models of earthquakes may lead to advancement towards a physical theory for earthquakes.

Accelerating seismic energy release and evolution of event time and size statistics: Results from two heterogeneous cellular automaton models

The evolution of event time and size statistics in two heterogeneous cellular automaton models of earthquake behavior are studied and compared to the evolution of these quantities during observed periods of accelerating seismic energy release Drier to large earthquakes. The two automata have different nearest neighbor laws, one of which produces self-organized critical (SOC) behavior (PSD model) and the other which produces quasi-periodic large events (crack model). In the PSD model periods of accelerating energy release before large events are rare. In the crack model, many large events are preceded by periods of accelerating energy release. When compared to randomized event catalogs, accelerating energy release before large events occurs more often than random in the crack model but less often than random in the PSD model; it is easier to tell the crack and PSD model results apart from each other than to tell either model apart from a random catalog. The evolution of event sizes during the accelerating energy release sequences in all models is compared to that of observed sequences. The accelerating energy release sequences in the crack model consist of an increase in the rate of events of all sizes, consistent with observations from a small number of natural cases, however inconsistent with a larger number of cases in which there is an increase in the rate of only moderate-sized events. On average, no increase in the rate of events of any size is seen before large events in the PSD model.

A method for setting the size of plant conservation target areas

Realistic time frames in which management decisions are made often preclude the completion of the detailed analyses necessary for conservation planning. Under these circumstances, efficient alternatives may assist in approximating the results of more thorough studies that require extensive resources and time. We outline a set of concepts and formulas that may be used in lieu of detailed population viability analyses and habitat modeling exercises to estimate the protected areas required to provide desirable conservation outcomes for a suite of threatened plant species. We used expert judgment of parameters and assessment of a population size that results in a specified quasiextinction risk based on simple dynamic models The area required to support a population of this size is adjusted to take into account deterministic and stochastic human influences, including small-scale disturbance deterministic trends such as habitat loss, and changes in population density through processes such as predation and competition. We set targets for different disturbance regimes and geographic regions. We applied our methods to Banksia cuneata, Boronia keysii, and Parsonsia dorrigoensis, resulting in target areas for conservation of 1102, 733, and 1084 ha, respectively. These results provide guidance on target areas and priorities for conservation strategies.

Crystal structure of a heptameric Sm-like protein complex from archaea: Implications for the structure and evolution of snRNPs

The Sm/Lsm proteins associate with small nuclear RNA to form the core of small nuclear ribonucleoproteins, required for processes as diverse as pre-mRNA splicing, mRNA degradation and telomere formation. The Lsm proteins from archaea are likely to represent the ancestral Sm/Lsm domain. Here, we present the crystal structure of the Lsm alpha protein from the thermophilic archaeon Methanobacterium thermoautrophicum at 2.0 Angstrom resolution. The Lsm alpha protein crystallizes as a heptameric ring comprised of seven identical subunits interacting via beta -strand pairing and hydrophobic interactions. The heptamer can be viewed as a propeller-like structure in which each blade consists of a seven-stranded antiparallel beta -sheet formed from neighbouring subunits. There are seven slots on the inner surface of the heptamer ring, each of which is lined by Asp, Asn and Arg residues that are highly conserved in the Sm/Lsm sequences. These conserved slots are likely to form the RNA-binding site. In archaea, the gene encoding Lsm alpha is located next to the L37e ribosomal protein gene in a putative operon, suggesting a role for the Lsm alpha complex in ribosome function or biogenesis. (C) 2001 Academic Press.

The neutral hydrogen content of Fornax cluster galaxies

We present a new set of deep H I observations of member galaxies of the Fornax cluster. We detected 35 cluster galaxies in H I. The resulting sample, the most comprehensive to date, is used to investigate the distribution of neutral hydrogen in the cluster galaxies. We compare the H I content of the detected cluster galaxies with that of field galaxies by measuring H I mass-to-light ratios and the H I deficiency parameter of Solanes et al. (1996). The mean H I mass-to-light ratio of the cluster galaxies is 0.68 +/- 0.15, significantly lower than for a sample of H I-selected field galaxies (1.15 +/- 0.10), although not as low as in the Virgo cluster (0.45 +/- 0.03). In addition, the H I content of two cluster galaxies (NGC1316C and NGC1326B) appears to have been affected by interactions. The mean H I deficiency for the cluster is 0.38 +/- 0.09 (for galaxy types T = 1-6), significantly greater than for the field sample (0.05 +/- 0.03). Both these tests show that Fornax cluster galaxies are H I-deficient compared to field galaxies. The kinematics of the cluster galaxies suggests that the H I deficiency may be caused by ram-pressure stripping of galaxies on orbits that pass close to the cluster core. We also derive the most complete B-band Tully-Fisher relation of inclined spiral galaxies in Fornax. A subcluster in the South-West of the main cluster contributes considerably to the scatter. The scatter for galaxies in the main cluster alone is 0.50 mag, which is slightly larger than the intrinsic scatter of 0.4 mag. We use the Tully-Fisher relation to derive a distance modulus of Fornax relative to the Virgo cluster of -0.38 +/- 0.14 mag. The galaxies in the subcluster are (1.0 +/- 0.5) mag brighter than the galaxies of the main cluster, indicating that they are situated in the foreground. With their mean velocity 95 km s(-1) higher than that of the main cluster we conclude that the subcluster is falling into the main Fornax cluster.

The evolution and star formation of dwarf galaxies in the Fornax Cluster

We present the results of a spectroscopic survey of 675 bright (16.5 < b(J) < 18) galaxies in a 6 degrees field centred on the Fornax cluster with the FLAIR-II spectrograph on the UK Schmidt Telescope. Three galaxy samples were observed: compact galaxies to search for new blue compact dwarfs, candidate M 32-like compact dwarf ellipticals, and a subset of the brightest known cluster members in order to study the cluster dynamics. We measured redshifts for 516 galaxies, of which 108 were members of the Fornax Cluster. Defining dwarf galaxies to be those with b(J) greater than or equal to 15 (M-B greater than or equal to - 16.5), there are a total of 62 dwarf cluster galaxies in our sample. Nine of these are new cluster members previously misidentified as background galaxies. The cluster dynamics show that the dwarf galaxies are still falling into the cluster whereas the giants are virialized. We classified the observed galaxies as late-type if we detected H alpha emission at an equivalent width greater than 1 Angstrom. The spectra were obtained through fixed apertures, so they reflect activity in the galaxy cores, but this does not significantly bias the classifications of the compact dwarfs in our sample. The new classifications reveal a higher rate of star formation among the dwarf galaxies than suggested by morphological classification: 35 per cent have significant H alpha emission indicative of star formations but only 19 per cent were morphologically classified as late-types. The star-forming dwarf galaxies span the full range of physical sizes and we find no evidence in our data for a distinct class of star-forming blue compact dwarf (BCD) galaxy. The distribution of scale sizes is consistent with evolutionary processes which transform late-type dwarfs to early-type dwarfs. The fraction of dwarfs with active star formation drops rapidly towards the cluster centre: this is the usual density-morphology relation confirmed here for dwarf galaxies. The star-forming dwarfs are concentrated in the outer regions of the cluster, the most extreme in an infalling subcluster. We estimate gas depletion time-scales for five dwarfs with detected Hi emission: these are long (of order 10(10) yr), indicating that an active gas removal process must be involved if they are transformed into gas-poor dwarfs as they fall further into the cluster. Finally, in agreement with our previous results, we find no compact dwarf elliptical (M 32-like) galaxies in the Fornax Cluster.