Modelling the Distribution of Ischaemic Stroke-Specific Survival Time Using an EM-based Mixture Approach with Random Effects Adjustment

A two-component survival mixture model is proposed to analyse a set of ischaemic stroke-specific mortality data. The survival experience of stroke patients after index stroke may be described by a subpopulation of patients in the acute condition and another subpopulation of patients in the chronic phase. To adjust for the inherent correlation of observations due to random hospital effects, a mixture model of two survival functions with random effects is formulated. Assuming a Weibull hazard in both components, an EM algorithm is developed for the estimation of fixed effect parameters and variance components. A simulation study is conducted to assess the performance of the two-component survival mixture model estimators. Simulation results confirm the applicability of the proposed model in a small sample setting. Copyright (C) 2004 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

Sonification supports eyes-free respiratory monitoring and task time-sharing

Three experiments explored the effectiveness of continuous auditory displays, or sonifications, for conveying information about a simulated anesthetized patient's respiration. Experiment 1 established an effective respiratory sonification. Experiment 2 showed an effect of expertise in the use of respiratory sonification and revealed that some apparent differences in sonification effectiveness could be accounted for by response bias. Experiment 3 showed that sonification helps anesthesiologists to maintain high levels of awareness of the simulated patient's state while performing other tasks more effectively than when relying upon visual monitoring of the simulated patient state. Overall, sonification of patient physiology beyond traditional pulse oximetry appears to be a viable and useful adjunct to visual monitors. Actual and potential applications of this research include monitoring in a wide variety of busy critical care contexts.

Falls prevention in rural general practice: what stands the test of time and where to from here?

Objective: General practitioner recall of the 1992-96 'Stay on Your Feet'(SOYF) program and its influence on practice were surveyed five years post-intervention to gauge sustainability of the SOYF General Practice (GP) component. Methods: A survey assessed which SOYF components were still in existence, current practice related to falls prevention, and interest in professional development. All general practitioners (GPs) situated within the boundaries of a rural Area Health Service were mailed a survey in late 2001. Results: Response rate was 66.5% (139/ 209). Of 117 GPs in practice at the time of SOYF, 80.2% reported having heard of SOYF and 74.4% of those felt it had influenced practice. Half (50.9%) still had a copy of the SOYF GP resource and of those, 58.6% used it at least 'occasionally'. Three-quarters of GPs surveyed (75.2%) checked medications 'most/almost all' of the time with patients over 60 years; 46.7% assessed falls risk factors; 41.3% gave advice; and 22.6% referred to allied health practitioners. GPs indicated a strong interest in falls prevention- related professional development. There was no significant association between use of the SOYF resource package and any of the current falls prevention practices (all chi(2)>0.05). Conclusions and implications: There was high recall of SOYF and a general belief that it influenced practice. There was little indication that use of the resource had any lasting influence on GPs' practices. In future, careful thought needs to go into designing a program that has potential to affect long-term change in GPs' falls prevention practice.

Achieving the millennium development goals for health - Time to reassess strategies for improving health in developing countries

Making best use of resources is vital in developing countries that are struggling to improve public health with limited funds. The WHO-CHOICE project has developed standardised methods to,evaluate the efficiency of a broad range of interventions. Ibis series starts by assessing die problems with strategies for meeting the millennium development goals. Subsequent articles describe the methods, apply them to maternal and neonatal health, child health, HIV and AIDS, tuberculosis, and malaria, and consider the implications for an overall health strategy. All appear on bmj.com this week.

Premovement activity of the pre-supplementary motor area and the readiness for action: Studies of time-resolved event-related functional MRI

The supplementary motor area (SMA) is thought to play in important role in the preparation and organisation of voluntary movement. It has long been known that cortical activity begins to increase up to 2 s prior to voluntary self-initiated movement. This increasing premovement activity measured in EEG is known as the Bereitschaftspotential or readiness potential. Modern functional brain imaging methods, using event-related and time-resolved functional MRI techniques, are beginning to reveal the role of the SMA, and in particular the more anterior pre-SMA, in premovement activity associated with the readiness for action. In this paper we review recent studies using event-related time-resolved fMRI methods to examine the time-course of activation changes within the SMA throughout the preparation, readiness and execution of action. These studies suggest that the preSMA plays a common role in encoding or representing actions prior to our own voluntary self-initiated movements, during motor imagery, and from the observation of others' actions. We suggest that the pre-SMA generates and encodes motor representations which are then maintained in readiness for action. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The selection of intended actions and the observation of others' actions: A time-resolved fMRI study

Whenever we plan, imagine, or observe an action, the motor systems that would be involved in preparing and executing that action are similarly engaged. The way in which such common motor activation is formed, however, is likely to differ depending on whether it arises from our own intentional selection of action or from the observation of another's action. In this study, we use time-resolved event-related functional MRI to tease apart neural processes specifically related to the processing of observed actions, the selection of our own intended actions, the preparation for movement, and motor response execution. Participants observed a finger gesture movement or a cue indicating they should select their own finger gesture to perform, followed by a 5-s delay period; participants then performed the observed or self-selected action. During the preparation and readiness for action, prior to initiation, we found activation in a common network of higher motor areas, including dorsal and ventral premotor areas and the pre-supplementary motor area (pre-SMA); the more caudal SMA showed greater activation during movement execution. Importantly, the route to this common motor activation differed depending on whether participants freely selected the actions to perform or whether they observed the actions performed by another person. Observation of action specifically involved activation of inferior and superior parietal regions, reflecting involvement of the dorsal visual pathway in visuomotor processing required for planning the action. In contrast, the selection of action specifically involved the dorsal lateral prefrontal and anterior cingulate cortex, reflecting the role of these prefrontal areas in attentional selection and guiding the selection of responses. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Applying linear time-varying constraints to econometric models: With an application to demand systems

When linear equality constraints are invariant through time they can be incorporated into estimation by restricted least squares. If, however, the constraints are time-varying, this standard methodology cannot be applied. In this paper we show how to incorporate linear time-varying constraints into the estimation of econometric models. The method involves the augmentation of the observation equation of a state-space model prior to estimation by the Kalman filter. Numerical optimisation routines are used for the estimation. A simple example drawn from demand analysis is used to illustrate the method and its application.

Impulse-response studies on tracer doses of [C-14]lignocaine and its multiple metabolites in the perfused rat liver

The outflow-concentration-time profiles for lignocaine (lidocaine) and its metabolites have been measured after bolus impulse administration of [C-14]lignocaine into the perfused rat liver. Livers from female Sprague-Dawley rats were perfused in a once-through fashion with red-blood-cell-free Krebs-Henseleit buffer containing 0 or 2% bovine serum albumin. Perfusate flow rates of 20 and 30 mL min(-1) were used and both normal and retrograde flow directions were employed. Significant amounts of metabolite were detected in the effluent perfusate soon after lignocaine injection. The early appearance of metabolite contributed to bimodal outflow profiles observed for total C-14 radioactivity. The lignocaine outflow profiles were well characterized by the two-compartment dispersion model, with efflux rate << influx rate. The profiles for lignocaine metabolites were also characterized in terms of a simplified two-compartment dispersion model. Lignocaine was found to be extensively metabolized under the experimental conditions with the hepatic availability ranging between 0.09 and 0.18. Generally lignocaine and metabolite availability showed no significant change with alterations in perfusate flow rate from 20 to 30 mt min(-1) or protein content from 0 to 2%. A significant increase in lignocaine availability occurred when 1200 mu M unlabelled lignocaine was added to the perfusate. Solute mean transit times generally decreased with increasing flow rate and with increasing perfusate protein content. The results confirm that lignocaine pharmacokinetics in the liver closely follow the predictions of the well-stirred model. The increase in lignocaine availability when 1200 mu M unlabelled lignocaine was added to the perfusate is consistent with saturation of the hydroxylation metabolic pathways of lignocaine metabolism.

A defense of backwards in time causation models in quantum mechanics

This paper offers a defense of backwards in time causation models in quantum mechanics. Particular attention is given to Cramer's transactional account, which is shown to have the threefold virtue of solving the Bell problem, explaining the complex conjugate aspect of the quantum mechanical formalism, and explaining various quantum mysteries such as Schrodinger's cat. The question is therefore asked, why has this model not received more attention from physicists and philosophers? One objection given by physicists in assessing Cramer's theory was that it is not testable. This paper seeks to answer this concern by utilizing an argument that backwards causation models entail a fork theory of causal direction. From the backwards causation model together with the fork theory one can deduce empirical predictions. Finally, the objection that this strategy is questionable because of its appeal to philosophy is deflected.