Relationships among climate, latitude and migration: Australian butterflies are not temperate-zone birds

We examined the distribution of butterflies over the mostly arid and semi-arid continent of Australia and analyzed the proportion of migrant species and species diversity with respect to an array of climatic and geographic variables. On a continent-wide scale, latitude explained virtually no variance in either proportion of migrants (r(2) = 0.01) or species diversity (r(2) = 0.03) in Australian butterflies. These results are in marked contrast to those for temperate-zone birds from three continents where latitude explained between 82 and 98% of the variance in frequency of migrants and also accounted for much of the variance in bird species diversity. In eastern Australia where rainfall regimes are similar to those in temperate Europe and North and South America, latitude explains 78% of the variance in frequency of butterfly migrants. In both eastern and central Australia, latitude also accounts for relatively high proportions of the variance in species diversity. Rainfall patterns and especially soil moisture are negatively associated with migration frequency in Australian butterfly faunas, both alone and in combination with other climate variables. Where moisture levels are relatively high, as in eastern Australia, measures of temperature are associated with migration frequency, a result consistent with findings for temperate-zone birds, suggesting latitude is a surrogate for temperature. The ultimate causes of migration in temperate-zone birds and Australian butterflies are the uneven temporal, and in Australia also spatial, distribution of resources. Uneven distribution is brought about primarily by temperature in temperate regions and by erratic rainfall over much of arid Australia. As a key determinant of productivity, especially in the tropics and subtropics, aridity is likely to be an important determinant of the global distributions of migrants.

The effects of the Cannabis Expiation Notice System on the prevalence of cannabis use in South Australia: evidence from the National Drug Strategy Household Surveys 1985-95

This study sought to examine the impact of the Cannabis Expiation Notice (CEN) scheme on the prevalence of lifetime and weekly cannabis use in South Australia. Data from five National Drug Strategy Household Surveys between 1985 and 1995 were examined to test for differences in trends in self-reported: (1) lifetime cannabis use; and (2) current weekly cannabis use, after controlling for age and gender, between South Australia and the other states and territories. Between 1985 and 1995, rates of lifetime cannabis use increased in SA from 26% to 36%. There were also significant increases in Victoria (from 26% to 32%), Tasmania (from 21% to 33%) and New South Wales (from 26% to 33%). The increase in South Australia was significantly greater than the average increase throughout the rest of Australia, but the other Australian states differed in their rates of change. Victoria and Tasmania had similar rates of increase to South Australia; New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia showed lower rates of increase; and the Northern Territory and the Australian Capital Territory had high rates that did not change during the period. There was no statistically significant difference between SA and the rest of Australia in the rate of increase in weekly cannabis use. While there was a greater increase in self- reported lifetime cannabis use in South Australia between 1985 and 1995 than in the average of the other Australian jurisdictions it is unlikely that this increase is due to the CEN system, because similar increases occurred in Tasmania and Victoria (where there was no change in the legal status of cannabis use), and there was no increase in the rate of weekly cannabis use in South Australia over the same period.

Absolute risk of breast cancer for Australian women with a family history

Background: The purpose of the present paper was to estimate the absolute risk of breast cancer over the remainder of a lifetime in Australian women with different categories of family history. Methods: Age-specific breast cancer incidence rates were adjusted for screening effects, and rates in those with no family history were estimated using the attributable fraction (AF). Relative risks from a published meta-analysis were applied to obtain incidence rates for different categories of family history, and age-specific incidence was converted to cumulative risk of breast cancer. The risk estimates were based upon Australian population statistics and published relative risks. Breast cancer incidence was from New South Wales women for 1996. The AF was calculated using prevalence of a family history of breast cancer from data on Queensland women. The cumulative absolute risk of breast cancer was calculated from decade and mid-decade ages to age 79 years, not adjusted for competing causes of death. Results: Lifetime risk is approximately 8.6% (1 in 12) for the general population and 7.8% (1 in 13) for those without a family history. Women with one relative affected have lifetime risks of 1 in 6-8 and those with two relatives affected have lifetime risks of 1 in 4-6. The cumulative residual lifetime risk decreases with advancing age; by age 60 years all groups with only one relative affected have well above a 90% probability of not developing breast cancer to age 79 years. Conclusions: These Australian risk statistics are useful for public information and in the clinical setting. Risks given here apply to women with average breast cancer risk from other risk factors.

Impact on perinatal mortality of missed opportunities to treat maternal syphilis in rural South Africa: baseline results from a clinic randomized controlled trial

OBJECTIVE To demonstrate the impact on perinatal mortality of inadequate treatment for maternal syphilis despite adequate screening. METHOD In 12 clinics providing antenatal care in Hlabisa, South Africa 1783 pregnant women were screened for syphilis at their first antenatal visit between June and October 1998. Pregnancy outcome was determined among those with syphilis. RESULTS A total of 158 women were diagnosed with syphilis: prevalence 9% (95% CI 8-10%). Mean gestation at first antenatal visit was 24 weeks. Thirty women (19%) received no treatment and 96 (61%) received all three recommended doses of penicillin. Among those receiving at least one dose, mean delay to the first dose was 20 days. Among those fully treated mean delay to treatment completion was 34 days. Pregnancy outcome was known for 142 women (90%) and there were 17 perinatal deaths among 15 women (11%). Eleven of 43 women (26%) who received one or fewer doses of penicillin experienced ii perinatal death whilst only four of 99 women (4%) who received two or more doses of penicillin did so (P = 0.0001). Protection from perinatal death increased with the number of doses of penicillin: linear modelling suggests that one dose reduced the risk by 41%, two doses by 65% and three doses by 79%, compared with no doses. A dose-specific, categorical model confirmed reduction in risk by 79% for all three doses. CONCLUSION Despite effective screening, many pregnant women with syphilis remain inadequately treated, resulting in avoidable perinatal mortality. Delays in starting and finishing treatment, as well as incomplete treatment occur. Near-patient syphilis testing in the antenatal clinic with early treatment could improve treatment of syphilis and reduce perinatal mortality, and a randomized trial to test this is underway.

A model for predicting the future incidence of coronary heart disease within percentiles of coronary heart disease risk

Background We present a method (The CHD Prevention Model) for modelling the incidence of fatal and nonfatal coronary heart disease (CHD) within various CHD risk percentiles of an adult population. The model provides a relatively simple tool for lifetime risk prediction for subgroups within a population. It allows an estimation of the absolute primary CHD risk in different populations and will help identify subgroups of the adult population where primary CHD prevention is most appropriate and cost-effective. Methods The CHD risk distribution within the Australian population was modelled, based on the prevalence of CHD risk, individual estimates of integrated CHD risk, and current CHD mortality rates. Predicted incidence of first fatal and nonfatal myocardial infarction within CHD risk strata of the Australian population was determined. Results Approximately 25% of CHD deaths were predicted to occur amongst those in the top 10 percentiles of integrated CHD risk, regardless of age group or gender. It was found that while all causes survival did not differ markedly between percentiles of CHD risk before the ages of around 50-60, event-free survival began visibly to differ about 5 years earlier. Conclusions The CHD Prevention Model provides a means of predicting future CHD incidence amongst various strata of integrated CHD risk within an adult population. It has significant application both in individual risk counselling and in the identification of subgroups of the population where drug therapy to reduce CHD risk is most cost-effective. J Cardiovasc Risk 8:31-37 (C) 2001 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.

An overview of diversion strategies for Australian drug-related offenders

This paper provides a descriptive overview of options for diversion of drug-related offenders from the criminal justice system. Drug-related offences include drug offences (for example, possession of a prohibited substance); offences that are directly linked to intoxication (for example, drink-driving or assault); and offences committed to support drug use (for example, theft). After an offence has been detected by police, multiple opportunities for diversion occur throughout the criminal justice process. (a) Pre-arrest: when an offence is first detected, prior to a charge being laid. This is known as police diversion and includes fines, warnings and cautions, sometimes with educational information or referral to assessment and treatment. (b) Pre-trial: when a charge is made but before the matter is heard at court. Examples are treatment as a condition of bail, conferencing and prosecutor discretion. (c) Pre-sentence: a delay of sentence while assessment and treatment are sought. (d) Post-sentence: as part of sentencing, for example suspended sentences, drug courts, noncustodial sentences and circle sentencing. (e) Pre-release: prior to release from a sentence, on parole. Issues for diversion programmes include net widening, the ethics of coercion to treatment, the needs of families and intersectoral collaboration. A framework for diversion is presented in which increasingly treatment-focused and coercive diversion strategies are used as offenders' criminal careers and drug problems increase.

Undergraduate student experience in dental service delivery in rural South Australia: An analysis of costs and benefits

Background, Rural experience for dental students can provide valuable clinical education, change attitudes to rural practice, and make a valuable contribution to clinical service provision. The aim of this paper is to assess the costs and benefits of service delivery by students through rural training programmes Methods: Groups of two students worked in the public dental clinics in adjacent rural centres where there had been long-term difficulties in recruiting staff. The costs and benefits of the programme were assessed by the impact on waiting lists, the total cost per patient of, a course of care and by the marginal cost of adding service provision by students to existing arrangements. Results: The total costs of emergency and complete treatment provided by students were greater than the costs of treatment provided by public-sector dentists but less than the costs of private providers treating public patients. However, the value of services were greater when care was provided by students or private providers and the marginal cost of students providing services was 50-70 per cent of the cost of care provided by public dentists. Conclusion: This assessment suggests that the service benefits achieved compliment the primary objective of influencing the attitude of students to rural practice.

Long-term survival of women with breast cancer in New South Wales

Several long-term studies of breast cancer survival have shown continued excess mortality from breast cancer up to 20-40 years following treatment. The purpose of this report was to investigate temporal trends in long-term survival from breast cancer in all New South Wales (NSW) women. Breast cancer cases incident in 1972-1996 (54,228) were derived from the NSW Central Cancer Registry a population-based registry which began in 1972. All cases of breast cancer not known to be dead were matched against death records. The expected survival for NSW women was derived from published annual life tables. Relative survival analysis compared the survival of cancer cases with the age, sex and period matched mortality of the total population. Cases were considered alive at the end of 1996, except when known to be dead. Proportional hazards regression was employed to model survival on age, period and degree of spread at diagnosis. Survival at 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25 years of follow-up was 76 per cent, 65 per cent, 60 per cent, 57 per cent and 56 per cent. The annual hazard rate for excess mortality was 4.3 per cent in year 1, maximal at 6.5 per cent in year 3, declining to 4.7 per cent in year 5, 2.7 per cent in year 10, 1.4 per cent in year 15, 1.0 per cent for years 16-20, and 0.4 per cent for years 20-25 of follow-up. Relative survival was highest in 40-49 year-olds. Cases diagnosed most recently (1992-1996) had the highest survival, compared with cases diagnosed in previous periods. Five-year survival improved over time, especially from the late 1980s for women in the screening age group (50-69 years). Survival was highest for those with localised cancer at diagnosis: 88.4 per cent, 79.1 per cent, 74.6 per cent, 72.7 per cent and 72.8 per cent at 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25 years follow-up (excluding those aged greater than or equal to 70 years). There was no significant difference between the survival of the breast cancer cases and the general population at 20-25 years follow-up. Degree of spread was less predictive of survival 5-20 years after diagnosis, compared with 0-5 years after diagnosis, and was not significant at 20-25 years of follow-up. Relative survival from breast cancer in NSW women continues to decrease to 25 years after diagnosis, but there is little excess mortality after 15 years follow-up, especially for those with localised cancer at diagnosis, and the minimal excess mortality at 20-25 years of follow-up is not statistically significant. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Apparent strain localization and shear wave dispersion in elastic fault gouge with microrotations

Shear deformation of fault gouge or other particulate materials often results in observed strain localization, or more precisely, the localization of measured deformation gradients. In conventional elastic materials the strain localization cannot take place therefore this phenomenon is attributed to special types of non-elastic constitutive behaviour. For particulate materials however the Cosserat continuum which takes care of microrotations independent of displacements is a more appropriate model. In elastic Cosserat continuum the localization in displacement gradients is possible under some combinations of the generalized Cosserat elastic moduli. The same combinations of parameters also correspond to a considerable dispersion in shear wave propagation which can be used for independent experimental verification of the proposed mechanism of apparent strain localization in fault gouge.

Impact of undergraduate and postgraduate rural training, and medical school entry criteria on rural practice among Australian general practitioners: national study of 2414 doctors

Objective To determine the association between rural undergraduate training, rural postgraduate training and medical school entry criteria favouring rural students, on likelihood of working in rural Australian general practice. Methods National case - control study of 2414 rural and urban general practitioners (GPs) sampled from the Health Insurance Commission database. Participants completed a questionnaire providing information on demographics, current practice location and rural undergraduate and postgraduate experience. Results Rural GPs were more likely to report having had any rural undergraduate training [ odds ratio ( OR) 1.61, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.32 - 1.95] than were urban GPs. Rural GPs were much more likely to report having had rural postgraduate training ( OR 3.14, 95% CI 2.57 - 3.83). As the duration of rural postgraduate training increased so did the likelihood of working as a rural GP: those reporting that more than half their postgraduate training was rural were most likely to be rural GPs ( OR 10.52, 95% CI 5.39 - 20.51). South Australians whose final high school year was rural were more likely to be rural GPs ( OR 3.18, 95% CI 0.99 - 10.22). Conclusions Undergraduate rural training, postgraduate training and medical school entry criteria favouring rural students, all are associated with an increased likelihood of being a rural GP. Longer rural postgraduate training is more strongly associated with rural practice. These findings argue for continuation of rural undergraduate training opportunities and rural entry schemes, and an expansion in postgraduate training opportunities for GPs.

Predicting sheetwash and rill erosion over the Australian continent

Soil erosion is a major environmental issue in Australia. It reduces land productivity and has off-site effects of decreased water quality. Broad-scale spatially distributed soil erosion estimation is essential for prioritising erosion control programs and as a component of broader assessments of natural resource condition. This paper describes spatial modelling methods and results that predict sheetwash and rill erosion over the Australian continent using the revised universal soil loss equation (RUSLE) and spatial data layers for each of the contributing environmental factors. The RUSLE has been used before in this way but here we advance the quality of estimation. We use time series of remote sensing imagery and daily rainfall to incorporate the effects of seasonally varying cover and rainfall intensity, and use new digital maps of soil and terrain properties. The results are compared with a compilation of Australian erosion plot data, revealing an acceptable consistency between predictions and observations. The modelling results show that: (1) the northern part of Australia has greater erosion potential than the south; (2) erosion potential differs significantly between summer and winter; (3) the average erosion rate is 4.1 t/ha. year over the continent and about 2.9 x 10(9) tonnes of soil is moved annually which represents 3.9% of global soil erosion from 5% of world land area; and (4) the erosion rate has increased from 4 to 33 times on average for agricultural lands compared with most natural vegetated lands.

Screening for leprosy in immigrants: A decision analysis model

Almost all leprosy cases reported in industrialized countries occur amongst immigrants or refugees from developing countries where leprosy continues to be an important health issue. Screening for leprosy is an important question for governments in countries with immigration and refugee programmes. A decision analysis framework is used to evaluate leprosy screening. The analysis uses a set of criteria and parameters regarding leprosy screening, and available data to estimate the number of cases which would be detected by a leprosy screening programme of immigrants from countries with different leprosy prevalences, compared with a policy of waiting for immigrants who develop symptomatic clinical diseases to present for health care. In a cohort of 100,000 immigrants from high leprosy prevalence regions (3.6/10,000), screening would detect 32 of the 42 cases which would arise in the destination country over the 14 years after migration; from medium prevalence areas (0.7/10,000) 6.3 of the total 8.1 cases would be detected, and from low prevalence regions (0.2/10,600) 1.8 of 2.3 cases. Using Australian data, the migrant mix would produce 74 leprosy cases from 10 years intake; screening would detect 54, and 19 would be diagnosed subsequently after migration. Screening would only produce significant case-yield amongst immigrants from regions or social groups with high leprosy prevalence. Since the number of immigrants to Australia from countries of higher endemnicity is not large routine leprosy screening would have a small impact on case incidence.

Field assessment of thermal after-ripening time for dormancy release prediction in Lolium rigidum seeds

Dormancy release was studied in four populations of annual ryegrass (Lolium rigidum) seeds to determine whether loss of dormancy in the field can be predicted from temperature alone or whether seed water content (WC) must also be considered. Freshly matured seeds were after-ripened at the northern and southern extremes of the Western Australian cereal cropping region and at constant 37degreesC. Seed WC was allowed to fluctuate with prevailing humidity, but full hydration was avoided by excluding rainfall. Dormancy was measured regularly during after-ripening by germinating seeds with 12-hourly light or in darkness. Germination was lower in darkness than in light/dark and dormancy release was slower when germination was tested in darkness. Seeds were consistently drier, and dormancy release was slower, during after-ripening at 37degreesC than under field conditions. However, within each population, the rate of dormancy release in the field (north and south) in terms of thermal time was unaffected by after-ripening site. While low seed WC slowed dormancy release in seeds held at 37degreesC, dormancy release in seeds after-ripened under Western Australian field conditions was adequately described by thermal after-ripening time, without the need to account for changes in WC elicited by fluctuating environmental humidity.