272 resultados para Risk Classification


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Objective: To examine the quality of diabetes care and prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in Australian general practice patients with type 2 diabetes and to investigate its relationship with coronary heart disease absolute risk (CHDAR). Methods: A total of 3286 patient records were extracted from registers of patients with type 2 diabetes held by 16 divisions of general practice (250 practices) across Australia for the year 2002. CHDAR was estimated using the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study algorithm with higher CHDAR set at a 10 year risk of >15%. Multivariate multilevel logistic regression investigated the association between CHDAR and diabetes care. Results: 47.9% of diabetic patient records had glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c) >7%, 87.6% had total cholesterol >= 4.0 mmol/l, and 73.8% had blood pressure (BP) >= 130/85 mm Hg. 57.6% of patients were at a higher CHDAR, 76.8% of whom were not on lipid modifying medication and 66.2% were not on antihypertensive medication. After adjusting for clustering at the general practice level and age, lipid modifying medication was negatively related to CHDAR (odds ratio (OR) 0.84) and total cholesterol. Antihypertensive medication was positively related to systolic BP but negatively related to CHDAR (OR 0.88). Referral to ophthalmologists/optometrists and attendance at other health professionals were not related to CHDAR. Conclusions: At the time of the study the diabetes and CVD preventive care in Australian general practice was suboptimal, even after a number of national initiatives. The Australian Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) guidelines need to be modified to improve CVD preventive care in patients with type 2 diabetes.

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Few prospective data from the Asia Pacific region are available relating body mass index to the risk of diabetes. Our objective was to provide reliable age, sex and region specific estimates of the associations between body mass index and diabetes. Twenty-seven cohort studies from Asia, New Zealand and Australia, including 154,989 participants, contributed 1,244,793 person-years of follow-up. Outcome data included a combination of incidence of diabetes (based on blood glucose measurements) and fatal diabetes events. Hazard ratios were calculated from Cox models, stratified by sex and cohort, and adjusted for age at risk and smoking. During follow-up (mean = 8 years), 75 fatal diabetes events and 242 new cases of diabetes were documented. There were continuous positive associations between baseline body mass index and risk of diabetes with each 2 kg/m(2) lower body mass index associated with a 27% (23-30%) lower risk of diabetes. The associations were stronger in younger age groups, and regional comparisons demonstrated slightly stronger associations in Asian than in Australasian cohorts (P = 0.04). This overview provides evidence of a strong continuous association between body mass index and diabetes in the Asia Pacific region. The results indicate considerable potential for reduction in incidence of diabetes with population-wide lowering of body mass index in this region.

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The importance of overweight as a risk factor for coronary heart disease (CHD) remains unsettled. We estimated the relative risk (RR) for CHD associated with underweight (body mass index, BMI < 20 kg/m2), overweight (25 – 30 kg/m2) and obesity (= 30 kg/m2), compared with normal weight (20 – 25 kg/m2) in a random effects meta-analysis of 30 prospective studies, including 389,239 healthy, predominantly Caucasian persons. We also explored sources of heterogeneity between studies and examined effects of systematic adjustment for confounding and intermediary variables. Pooled age-, sex- and smoking-adjusted RRs (95% confidence interval) for overweight, obesity and underweight compared with normal weight were 1.33 (1.24 – 1.43), 1.69 (1.44 – 1.99) and 1.01 (0.85 – 1.20), respectively. Stratified analyses showed that pooled RRs for BMI were higher for studies with longer follow-up (= vs. < 15 years) and younger populations (< vs. = 60 years). Additional adjustment for blood pressure, cholesterol levels and physical activity decreased the RR per 5 BMI units from 1.28 (1.21 – 1.34) to 1.16 (1.11 – 1.21). We conclude that overweight and obesity are associated with a substantially increased CHD risk in Caucasians, whereas underweight is not. Prevention and reduction of overweight and obesity, therefore, remain of importance for preventing CHD.

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Background Schizophrenia has been associated with semantic memory impairment and previous studies report a difficulty in accessing semantic category exemplars (Moelter et al. 2005 Schizophr Res 78:209–217). The anterior temporal cortex (ATC) has been implicated in the representation of semantic knowledge (Rogers et al. 2004 Psychol Rev 111(1):205–235). We conducted a high-field (4T) fMRI study with the Category Judgment and Substitution Task (CJAST), an analogue of the Hayling test. We hypothesised that differential activation of the temporal lobe would be observed in schizophrenia patients versus controls. Methods Eight schizophrenia patients (7M : 1F) and eight matched controls performed the CJAST, involving a randomised series of 55 common nouns (from five semantic categories) across three conditions: semantic categorisation, anomalous categorisation and word reading. High-resolution 3D T1-weighted images and GE EPI with BOLD contrast and sparse temporal sampling were acquired on a 4T Bruker MedSpec system. Image processing and analyses were performed with SPM2. Results Differential activation in the left ATC was found for anomalous categorisation relative to category judgment, in patients versus controls. Conclusions We examined semantic memory deficits in schizophrenia using a novel fMRI task. Since the ATC corresponds to an area involved in accessing abstract semantic representations (Moelter et al. 2005), these results suggest schizophrenia patients utilise the same neural network as healthy controls, however it is compromised in the patients and the different ATC activity might be attributable to weakening of category-to-category associations.

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Methotrexate is eliminated almost entirely by the kidneys. The risk of methotrexate toxicity is therefore increased in patients with poor renal function, most likely as a result of drug accumulation. Declining renal function with age may thus be an important predictor of toxicity to methotrexate. Up to 60% of all patients who receive methotrexate for rheumatoid arthritis (RA) discontinue taking it because of adverse effects, most of which occur during the first year of therapy. Gastrointestinal complications are the most common adverse effects of methotrexate, but hepatotoxicity, haematological toxicity, pulmonary toxicity, lymphoproliferative disorders and exacerbation of rheumatic nodules have all been reported, Decreased renal function as a result of disease and/or aging appears to be an important determinant of hepatic, lymphoproli ferative and haematological toxicity, Concomitant use of low doses of folic acid has been recommended as an approach to limiting toxicity. Interactions between methotrexate and several nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs have been reported, but they may not be clinically significant. However, caution is advised in the use of such combinations in patients with reduced renal function. More serious toxicities (e.g. pancytopenia) may result when other inhibitors of folate utilisation [e.g. cotrimoxazole (trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole)] or inhibitors of renal tubular secretion (e.g. probenecid) are combined with methotrexate. Before starting low dose methotrexate therapy in patients with RA, a full blood count, liver function tests, renal function tests and chest radiography should be performed. Blood counts and liver function tests should be repeated at regular intervals. Therapeutic drug monitoring of methotrexate has also been suggested as a means of limiting toxicity. Patients with RA usually respond very favourably to low dose methotrexate therapy, and the probability of patients continuing their treatment beyond 5 years is greater than for other slow-acting antirheumatic drugs. Thus, given its sustained clinical utility and relatively predictable toxicity profile, low dose methotrexate is a useful addition to the therapy of RA.

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The value of a seasonal forecasting system based on phases of the Southern Oscillation was estimated for a representative dryland wheat grower in the vicinity of Goondiwindi. In particular the effects on this estimate of risk attitude and planting conditions were examined. A recursive stochastic programming approach was used to identify the grower's utility-maximising action set in the event of each of the climate patterns over the period 1894-1991 recurring In the imminent season. The approach was repeated with and without use of the forecasts. The choices examined were, at planting, nitrogen application rate and cultivar and, later in the season, choices of proceeding with or abandoning each wheat activity, The value of the forecasting system was estimated as the maximum amount the grower could afford to pay for its use without expected utility being lowered relative to its non use.

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Background: Sudden unexpected cardiac death (SUCD) accounts for approximately 25% of deaths from ischaemic heart disease (IHD) but is relatively poorly understood because of the difficulties involved in researching aetiology. Clinical differences between instances of SUCD and those cases of acute chest pain that survive long enough to be proven as myocardial infarction but are eventually fatal might reflect differences in aetiology. Aims: To determine the risk factors for sudden unexpected cardiac death in Tasmanian men. Methods: A population-based case-control method was used with the study population, an estimated 125,225 men aged 25-74 years living in the island State of Tasmania, Australia. The case group of 102 men who had a SUCD was validated using necropsy reports, hospital records and information provided by the usual general practitioner. Cases were matched with 204 community controls. Spouses or partners of eligible subjects answered a detailed questionnaire. Multi-variate odds ratios (ORs) for risk factors were calculated using stepwise analysis. Results: Risk factors measured included: smoking habit, treated hypertension, hypercholesterolaemia, diabetes mellitus, family history of LHD, alcohol intake and exercise habits. Independent risk factors for SUCD were: history of diabetes mellitus (OR=4.2, 95% CI: 1.39, 12.81), current smoking status (OR=3.5, 95% CI: 1.80, 6.82), and family history of IHD (OR=2.6, 95% CI: 1.34, 4.92). Conclusions: Some accepted risk factors for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) also predict sudden death in men with no history of coronary disease. Efforts to reduce smoking, the incidence of diabetes mellitus and mean blood pressure must be continued as SUCD is, by definition, untreatable but is potentially avoidable in many instances.

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Objective. To examine possible risk factors in post-stroke depression (PSD) other than site of lesion in the brain Data sources. 191 first-ever stroke patients were examined physically shortly after their stroke and examined psychiatrically and physically 4 months post-stroke. Setting. A geographically defined segment of the metropolitan area of Perth, Western Australia, from which all strokes over a course of 18 months were examined (the Perth Community Stroke Study). Measures. Psychiatric Assessment Schedule, Mini Mental State Examination, Barthel Index, Frenchay Activities Index, physical illness and sociodemographic data were collected. Post-stroke depression (PSD) included both major depression and minor depression (dysthymia without the 2-year time stipulation) according to DSM-III (American Psychiatric Association) criteria. Patients depressed at the time of the stroke were excluded. Patients. 191 first-ever stroke patients, 111M, 80F, 28% had PSD, 17% major and 11% minor depression. Results. Significant associations with PSD at 4 months were major functional impairment, living in a nursing home, being divorced and having a high pre-stroke alcohol intake (M only). There was no significant association with age, sex, social class, cognitive impairment or pre-stroke physical illness. Conclusion. Results favoured the hypothesis that depression in an unselected group of stroke patients is no more common, and of no more specific aetiology, than it is among elderly patients with other physical illness.

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We have examined the effect of tubal sterilisation and hysterectomy on risk of ovarian cancer in a large case-control study in eastern Australia involving 824 women aged 18-79 years, diagnosed with epithelial ovarian cancer between 1990 and 1993, and 855 controls randomly selected from the electoral roll. Relative risks for ovarian cancer were estimated using multiple categorical regression to adjust for age, parity, oral contraceptive use and other risk factors. Tubal sterilisation was associated with a 39% reduction in risk of ovarian cancer (RR 0.61, 95% Cl 0.46-0.85) and hysterectomy with a 36% reduction (RR 0.64, 95% Cl 0.48-0.85). Risk remained low 25 years after surgery and was reduced irrespective of sterilisation technique, and estimates were similar among various types of epithelial ovarian cancer. The greatest reduction (74%) was observed among women with primary peritoneal tumours. Pelvic infection and use of vaginal sprays or contraceptive foams were not related to ovarian cancer, while use of talc in the perineal region slightly but significantly increased risk among women with patent fallopian tubes. Reportedly heavy or painful menses, perhaps associated with retrograde flow, were associated with ovarian cancer, and reduction in risk of disease after hysterectomy was greatest among women who had heavy periods. Our findings support the theory that contaminants from the vagina, such as talc, and from the uterus, such as endometrium, gain access to the peritoneal cavity through patent fallopian tubes and may enhance the malignant transformation of ovarian surface epithelium. Surgical tubal occlusion may reduce the risk of ovarian cancer by preventing the access of such agents. (C) 1997 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

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A series of studies was conducted to compare group differences in the goal orientations of delinquent, at-risk, and not-at-risk adolescents. An Importance of Goals Scale was developed by examining the item responses of 230 high school students and validated by administering the revised scale to 80 delinquent, 90 at-risk, and 90 not-at-risk adolescents. Results identified differences in the importance attributed to different goals by the 3 groups. Delinquent and at-risk adolescents attached significantly more importance to goals associated with developing a social image (e.g., delinquency, freedom-autonomy), whereas not-at-risk adolescents were more concerned with goals associated with an academic image (e.g., educational, interpersonal). Results are discussed in terms of their implications for school achievement, peer relations, and future life paths.

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This paper considers a stochastic frontier production function which has additive, heteroscedastic error structure. The model allows for negative or positive marginal production risks of inputs, as originally proposed by Just and Pope (1978). The technical efficiencies of individual firms in the sample are a function of the levels of the input variables in the stochastic frontier, in addition to the technical inefficiency effects. These are two features of the model which are not exhibited by the commonly used stochastic frontiers with multiplicative error structures, An empirical application is presented using cross-sectional data on Ethiopian peasant farmers. The null hypothesis of no technical inefficiencies of production among these farmers is accepted. Further, the flexible risk models do not fit the data on peasant farmers as well as the traditional stochastic frontier model with multiplicative error structure.