Load-unload response ratio and accelerating moment/energy release critical region scaling and earthquake prediction

The main idea of the Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) is that when a system is stable, its response to loading corresponds to its response to unloading, whereas when the system is approaching an unstable state, the response to loading and unloading becomes quite different. High LURR values and observations of Accelerating Moment/Energy Release (AMR/AER) prior to large earthquakes have led different research groups to suggest intermediate-term earthquake prediction is possible and imply that the LURR and AMR/AER observations may have a similar physical origin. To study this possibility, we conducted a retrospective examination of several Australian and Chinese earthquakes with magnitudes ranging from 5.0 to 7.9, including Australia's deadly Newcastle earthquake and the devastating Tangshan earthquake. Both LURR values and best-fit power-law time-to-failure functions were computed using data within a range of distances from the epicenter. Like the best-fit power-law fits in AMR/AER, the LURR value was optimal using data within a certain epicentral distance implying a critical region for LURR. Furthermore, LURR critical region size scales with mainshock magnitude and is similar to the AMR/AER critical region size. These results suggest a common physical origin for both the AMR/AER and LURR observations. Further research may provide clues that yield an understanding of this mechanism and help lead to a solid foundation for intermediate-term earthquake prediction.

Prediction of Golgi Type II membrane proteins based on their transmembrane domains

Motivation: A major issue in cell biology today is how distinct intracellular regions of the cell, like the Golgi Apparatus, maintain their unique composition of proteins and lipids. The cell differentially separates Golgi resident proteins from proteins that move through the organelle to other subcellular destinations. We set out to determine if we could distinguish these two types of transmembrane proteins using computational approaches. Results: A new method has been developed to predict Golgi membrane proteins based on their transmembrane domains. To establish the prediction procedure, we took the hydrophobicity values and frequencies of different residues within the transmembrane domains into consideration. A simple linear discriminant function was developed with a small number of parameters derived from a dataset of Type II transmembrane proteins of known localization. This can discriminate between proteins destined for Golgi apparatus or other locations (post-Golgi) with a success rate of 89.3% or 85.2%, respectively on our redundancy-reduced data sets.

Bridging the gap between different statistical approaches: An integrated framework for modelling

This paper proposes a template for modelling complex datasets that integrates traditional statistical modelling approaches with more recent advances in statistics and modelling through an exploratory framework. Our approach builds on the well-known and long standing traditional idea of 'good practice in statistics' by establishing a comprehensive framework for modelling that focuses on exploration, prediction, interpretation and reliability assessment, a relatively new idea that allows individual assessment of predictions. The integrated framework we present comprises two stages. The first involves the use of exploratory methods to help visually understand the data and identify a parsimonious set of explanatory variables. The second encompasses a two step modelling process, where the use of non-parametric methods such as decision trees and generalized additive models are promoted to identify important variables and their modelling relationship with the response before a final predictive model is considered. We focus on fitting the predictive model using parametric, non-parametric and Bayesian approaches. This paper is motivated by a medical problem where interest focuses on developing a risk stratification system for morbidity of 1,710 cardiac patients given a suite of demographic, clinical and preoperative variables. Although the methods we use are applied specifically to this case study, these methods can be applied across any field, irrespective of the type of response.

Measuring range of active cervical rotation in a position of full head flexion using the 3D Fastrak measurement system: an intra-tester reliability study

Most external assessments of cervical range of motion assess the upper and lower cervical regions simultaneously. This study investigated the within and between days reliability of the clinical method used to bias this movement to the upper cervical region, namely measuring rotation of the head and neck in a position of full cervical flexion. Measurements were made using the Fastrak measurement system and were conducted by one operator. Results indicated high levels of within and between days repeatability (range of ICC2,1 values: 0.85-0.95). The ranges of axial rotation to right and left, measured with the neck positioned in full flexion, were approximately 56% and 50%, respectively of total cervical rotation, which relates well to the proportional division of rotation in the upper and lower cervical regions. These results suggest that this method of measuring rotation would be appropriate for use in subject studies where movement dysfunction is present in the upper cervical region, such as those with cervicogenic headache. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessing childrens competence in computer interactions: Preliminary reliability and validity of the test of mouse proficiency

The Test of Mouse Proficiency (TOMP) was developed to assist occupational therapists and education professionals assess computer mouse competency skills in children from preschool to upper primary (elementary) school age. The preliminary reliability and validity of TOMP are reported in this paper. Methods used to examine the internal consistency, test-retest reliability, and criterion- and construct-related validity of the test are elaborated. In the continuing process of test refinement, these preliminary studies support to varying degrees the reliability and validity of TOMP. Recommendations for further validation of the assessment are discussed along with indications for potential clinical application.

Warranty and optimal reliability improvement through product development

For products sold with warranty, the warranty servicing cost can be reduced by improving product reliability through a development process. However, this increases the unit manufacturing cost. Optimal development must achieve a trade-off between these two costs. The outcome of the development process is uncertain and needs to be taken into account in the determination of the optimal development effort. The paper develops a model where this uncertainty is taken into account. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The tree cut and merge algorithm for estimation of network reliability

This article presents Monte Carlo techniques for estimating network reliability. For highly reliable networks, techniques based on graph evolution models provide very good performance. However, they are known to have significant simulation cost. An existing hybrid scheme (based on partitioning the time space) is available to speed up the simulations; however, there are difficulties with optimizing the important parameter associated with this scheme. To overcome these difficulties, a new hybrid scheme (based on partitioning the edge set) is proposed in this article. The proposed scheme shows orders of magnitude improvement of performance over the existing techniques in certain classes of network. It also provides reliability bounds with little overhead.

Assessment of bioelectrical impedance analysis for the prediction of total body water in cystic fibrosis

The aim of this study was to compare the measurement of total body water (TBW) by deuterium ((H2O)-H-2) dilution and bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) in patients with cystic fibrosis (CF) and healthy controls. Thirty-six clinically stable patients with CF (age 25.4 +/- 5.6 yrs) and 42 healthy controls (age 25.4 +/- 4.8) were recruited into this study. TBW was measured by (H2O)-H-2 dilution and predicted by BIA in patients and controls. The TBW predicted from BIA was significantly different from TBW as measured using (H2O)-H-2 in patients (P

The reliability of video based time motion analysis

Time motion analysis is extensively used to assess the demands of team sports. At present there is only limited information on the reliability of measurements using this analysis tool. The aim of this study was to establish the reliability of an individual observer's time motion analysis of rugby union. Ten elite level rugby players were individually tracked in Southern Hemisphere Super 12 matches using a digital video camera. The video footage was subsequently analysed by a single researcher on two occasions one month apart. The test-retest reliability was quantified as the typical error of measurement (TEM) and rated as either good (10% TEM). The total time spent in the individual movements of walking, jogging, striding, sprinting, static exertion and being stationary had moderate to poor reliability (5.8-11.1% TEM). The frequency of individual movements had good to poor reliability (4.3-13.6% TEM), while the mean duration of individual movements had moderate reliability (7.1-9.3% TEM). For the individual observer in the present investigation, time motion analysis was shown to be moderately reliable as an evaluation tool for examining the movement patterns of players in competitive rugby. These reliability values should be considered when assessing the movement patterns of rugby players within competition.

Reliability of scores between stroke patients and significant others on the Reintegration to Normal Living (RNL) Index

Purpose: This study measured reliability between stroke patients' and significant others' scores on items on the Reintegration to Normal Living (RNL) Index and whether there were any scoring biases. Method The 11-item RNL Index was administered to 57 pairs of patients and significants six months after stroke rehabilitation. The index was scored using a 10-point visual analogue scale. Patient and significant other demographic information and data on patients' clinical, functional and cognitive status were collected. Reliability was measured using the intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC) and percent agreement. Results: Overall poor reliability was found for the RNL Index total score (ICC=.36, 95% CI. 07 to .59) and the daily functioning subscale (ICC=.24, 95% CI -.003 to .46) and moderate reliability was found for the perception of self subscale (ICC=.55, 95 % CI .28 to .73). There was a moderate bias for patients to rate themselves as achieving better reintegration than was indicated by significant others, although no demographic or clinical factors were associated with this bias. Exact match agreement was best for the subjective items and worse for items reflecting mobility around the community and participation in a work activity. Conclusions: Caution is needed when interpreting patient information reported by significant others on the RNL Index. The use of a shorter scale to rate the RNL Index requires investigation.

Reliability of electromyographic and torque measures during isometric axial rotation exertions of the trunk

Objective: The aim of the present study was to investigate the between-days reliability of electromyographic (EMG) measurement of 6 bilateral trunk muscles and also the torque output in 3 planes during isometric right and left axial rotation at different exertion levels. Methods: Ten healthy subjects performed isometric right and left axial rotation at 100, 70, 50 and 30% maximum voluntary contractions in two testing sessions at least 7 days apart. EMG amplitude and frequency analyses of the recorded surface EMG signals were performed for rectus abdominis, external oblique, internal oblique, latissimus dorsi, iliocostalis lumborum and multifidus bilaterally. The primary torque in the transverse plane and the coupling torques in sagittal and coronal planes were measured. Results: For both EMG amplitude and frequency values, good (intraclass correlation coefficient, ICC = 0.75-0.89) to excellent (ICC greater than or equal to 0.90) reliability was found in the 6 trunk muscles at different exertion levels during axial rotation. The reliability of both maximal isometric axial rotation torque and coupling torques in sagittal and coronal planes were found to be excellent (ICC greater than or equal to 0.93). Conclusions: Good to excellent reliability of EMG measures of trunk muscles and torque measurements during isometric axial rotation was demonstrated. This provides further confidence of using EMG and triaxial torque assessment as outcome measures in rehabilitation and in the evaluation of the human performance in the work place. (C) 2003 International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prediction of mortality in patients without angina: Use of an exercise score and exercise echocardiography

Background Exercise testing has limited efficacy for identifying coronary artery disease (CAD) in the absence of anginal. symptoms. Exercise echocardiography is more accurate than standard exercise testing, but its efficacy in this situation has not been defined. We sought to identify whether the Duke treadmill. score or exercise echocardiography (ExE) could be used to identify risk in patients without anginal symptoms. Methods We studied 1859 patients without typical or atypical angina, heart failure, or a history or ECG evidence of infarction or CAD, who were referred for ExE, of whom 1832 (age 51 15 years, 944 men) were followed for up to 10 years. The presence and extent of ischaemia and scar were interpreted by expert reviewers at the time of the original study. Results Exercise provoked significant (>0.1 mV) ST segment depression in 215 patients (12%), and wall motion abnormalities in 137 (8%). Seventy-eight patients (4%) died before revascularization, only 17 from known cardiac causes. The independent predictors of death were age (RR 1.1, p