Impact numbers in health policy decisions

Objective: To outline the major methodological issues appropriate to the use of the population impact number (PIN) and the disease impact number (DIN) in health policy decision making. Design: Review of literature and calculation of PIN and DIN statistics in different settings. Setting: Previously proposed extensions to the number needed to treat (NNT): the DIN and the PIN, which give a population perspective to this measure. Main results: The PIN and DIN allow us to compare the population impact of different interventions either within the same disease or in different diseases or conditions. The primary studies used for relative risk estimates should have outcomes, time periods and comparison groups that are congruent and relevant to the local setting. These need to be combined with local data on disease rates and population size. Depending on the particular problem, the target may be disease incidence or prevalence and the effects of interest may be either the incremental impact or the total impact of each intervention. For practical application, it will be important to use sensitivity analyses to determine plausible intervals for the impact numbers. Conclusions: Attention to various methodological issues will permit the DIN and PIN to be used to assist health policy makers assign a population perspective to measures of risk.

Genetic constraints on the evolution of mate recognition under natural selection

Field populations of Drosophila serrata display reproductive character displacement in cuticular hydrocarbons (CHCs) when sympatric with Drosophila birchii. We have previously shown that the naturally occurring pattern of reproductive character displacement can be experimentally replicated by exposing field allopatric populations of D. serrata to experimental sympatry with D. birchii. Here, we tested whether the repeated evolution of reproductive character displacement in natural and experimental populations was a consequence of genetic constraints on the evolution of CHCs. The genetic variance-covariance (G) matrices for CHCs were determined for populations of D. serrata that had evolved in either the presence or absence of D. birchii under field and experimental conditions. Natural selection on mate recognition under both field and experimental sympatric conditions increased the genetic variance in CHCs consistent with a response to selection based on rare alleles. A close association between G eigenstructure and the eigenstructure of the phenotypic divergence (D) matrix in natural and experimental populations suggested that G matrix eigenstructure may have determined the direction in which reproductive character displacement evolved during the reinforcement of mate recognition.

Seasonal changes in the diving performance of the bimodally respiring freshwater turtle Rheodytes leukops in a natural setting

The objective of this study was to investigate how seasonally fluctuating environmental conditions influence the diving performance of the highly aquatic, bimodally respiring turtle Rheodytes leukops in a natural setting. Over four consecutive seasons (Austral autumn 2000 to summer 2001), the diving behaviour of adult turtles was recorded via pressure-sensitive time-depth recorders within Marlborough Creek, central Queensland, Australia. Short surfacing intervals recorded for R. leukops in winter suggest that the species utilizes aquatic respiration as an overwintering strategy to prevent the development of a metabolic acidosis during the long inactive dives observed during the season. As water temperature increases and aquatic P-O 2 decreases, R. leukops switches from facultative to obligate air-breathing, presumably because of the increased metabolic cost associated with aquatic respiration under summer conditions. Increases in mean surfacing time from winter to spring and summer are attributed to seasonal changes in behaviour possibly associated with foraging rather than to the physiological state of the turtle, given that no difference in median surfacing time among seasons was observed.

Indirect evidence of density-dependent population regulation in Aponomma hydrosauri (Acari : Ixodidae), an ectoparasite of reptiles

The extent to which density-dependent processes regulate natural populations is the subject of an ongoing debate. We contribute evidence to this debate showing that density-dependent processes influence the population dynamics of the ectoparasite Aponomma hydrosauri (Acari: Ixodidae), a tick species that infests reptiles in Australia. The first piece of evidence comes from an unusually long-term dataset on the distribution of ticks among individual hosts. If density-dependent processes are influencing either host mortality or vital rates of the parasite population, and those distributions can be approximated with negative binomial distributions, then general host-parasite models predict that the aggregation coefficient of the parasite distribution will increase with the average intensity of infections. We fit negative binomial distributions to the frequency distributions of ticks on hosts, and find that the estimated aggregation coefficient k increases with increasing average tick density. This pattern indirectly implies that one or more vital rates of the tick population must be changing with increasing tick density, because mortality rates of the tick's main host, the sleepy lizard, Tiliqua rugosa, are unaffected by changes in tick burdens. Our second piece of evidence is a re-analysis of experimental data on the attachment success of individual ticks to lizard hosts using generalized linear modelling. The probability of successful engorgement decreases with increasing numbers of ticks attached to a host. This is direct evidence of a density-dependent process that could lead to an increase in the aggregation coefficient of tick distributions described earlier. The population-scale increase in the aggregation coefficient is indirect evidence of a density-dependent process or processes sufficiently strong to produce a population-wide pattern, and thus also likely to influence population regulation. The direct observation of a density-dependent process is evidence of at least part of the responsible mechanism.

Kangaroos and feral goats as economic resources for graziers: Some views from south-west Queensland

Fifteen years ago it was proposed that the conversion of kangaroos from a pest to an economically valuable resource would allow graziers to reduce the numbers of domestic stock and thereby lower total grazing pressure. Since then, little progress towards this goal has been achieved. This is believed to be due mainly to the low prices obtained for kangaroo products. A survey of graziers in south-west Queensland was carried out to discover their opinions on kangaroos as a potential economic resource. Questions on the harvesting of feral goats were also included in the survey because of the contrast this industry provides to kangaroo harvesting in terms of grazier involvement. The results of the survey are discussed in relation to resource ownership rights; kangaroo product prices and marketing; and competition within the kangaroo harvesting industry. They show that while low kangaroo product prices do act as a disincentive to graziers, other administrative, legal and institutional factors are also important impediments to their entry to the industry. It is concluded that until the focus of attention widens to include consideration of these as well as just market factors, little progress will be made towards integrating graziers into the kangaroo harvesting industry.

Skin-friction measurements in high-enthalpy hypersonic boundary layers

Skin-friction measurements are reported for high-enthalpy and high-Mach-number laminar, transitional and turbulent boundary layers. The measurements were performed in a free-piston shock tunnel with air-flow Mach number, stagnation enthalpy and Reynolds numbers in the ranges of 4.4-6.7, 3-13 MJ kg(-1) and 0.16 x 10(6)-21 x 10(6), respectively. Wall temperatures were near 300 K and this resulted in ratios of wall enthalpy to flow-stagnation enthalpy in the range of 0.1-0.02. The experiments were performed using rectangular ducts. The measurements were accomplished using a new skin-friction gauge that was developed for impulse facility testing. The gauge was an acceleration compensated piezoelectric transducer and had a lowest natural frequency near 40 kHz. Turbulent skin-friction levels were measured to within a typical uncertainty of +/-7%. The systematic uncertainty in measured skin-friction coefficient was high for the tested laminar conditions; however, to within experimental uncertainty, the skin-friction and heat-transfer measurements were in agreement with the laminar theory of van Driest (1952). For predicting turbulent skin-friction coefficient, it was established that, for the range of Mach numbers and Reynolds numbers of the experiments, with cold walls and boundary layers approaching the turbulent equilibrium state, the Spalding & Chi (1964) method was the most suitable of the theories tested. It was also established that if the heat transfer rate to the wall is to be predicted, then the Spalding & Chi (1964) method should be used in conjunction with a Reynolds analogy factor near unity. If more accurate results are required, then an experimentally observed relationship between the Reynolds analogy factor and the skin-friction coefficient may be applied.

Inhibition of early tumor growth requires Jα18-positive (natural killer T) cells

The role of natural killer T (NKT) cells in the immune response to tumor cells has been largely unexplored. As a model of adoptive tumor immunotherapy, cells from the draining lymph nodes of mice immunized with a tumor-specific or irrelevant antigen were transferred to naive recipients with established tumor. Inhibition of early tumor growth (day 4) required the transfer of both CD8(+) and Jalpha18(+) (NKT) cells from immunized animals without regard to immunogen. In contrast, CD8(+) cells, but not Jalpha18(+) cells, were necessary for the inhibition of late tumor growth (day 8). Thus, the developing tumor changes in sensitivity to NKT-mediated events and the role for NKT cells cannot be replaced by the presence of tumor-specific cells during early tumor growth. This suggests that recruitment/activation of Jalpha18(+) NKT cells is an important consideration during the immune therapy of early stage tumors.

Do expertise and the degree of perception-action coupling affect natural anticipatory performance?

Two experiments using a temporal occlusion paradigm (the first with expert and novice participants and the second with participants of intermediate skill) were conducted to examine the capability of tennis players to predict the direction of an opponent's service in situ. In both experiments two different response conditions, reflecting differing degrees of perception-action coupling, were employed. In a coupled condition players were required to make a movement-based response identical to that which they would use to hit a return of service in a game situation, whereas in an uncoupled condition a verbal prediction of service direction was required. Experiment 1 provided clear evidence of superior prediction accuracy under the coupled response condition when ball flight was available, plus some limited evidence to suggest that superior prediction accuracy under uncoupled response conditions might hold true if only advance (pre-contact) information was available. Experiment 2 showed the former finding to be a robust one, but was unable to reveal any support for the latter. Experiment 1 also revealed that expert superiority is more apparent for predictions made under natural (coupled) than uncoupled response-mode conditions. Collectively, these findings suggest that different perceptual processes may be in operation in anticipatory tasks which depend on skill level, the type of information presented, and degree of perception-action coupling inherent in the task requirements.

Nutritional effects on neuron numbers

Undemutrition during early life is known to cause deficits and distortions of brain structure although it has remained uncertain whether or not this includes a diminution of the total numbers of neurons. Estimates of numerical density (e.g. number of cells per microscopic field, or number of cells per unit area of section, or number of cells per unit volume of tissue) are extremely difficult to interpret and do not provide estimates of total numbers of cells. However, advances in stereological techniques have made it possible to obtain unbiased estimates of total numbers of cells in well defined biological structures. These methods have been utilised in studies to determine the effects of varying periods of undernutrition during early life on the numbers of neurons in various regions of the rat brain. The regions examined so far have included the cerebellum, the dentate gyrus, the olfactory bulbs and the cerebral cortex. The only region to show, unequivocally, that a period of undernutrition during early life causes a deficit in the number of neurons was the dentate gyrus. These findings are discussed in the context of other morphological and functional deficits present in undernourished animals.