92 resultados para Logit fixed effect model


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The presence of toxic cyanobacteria in drinking water reservoirs renders the need to develop treatment methods for the 'safe' removal of their associated toxins. Chlorine has been shown to successfully remove a range of cyanotoxins including microcystins, cylindrospermopsin and saxitoxins. Each cyanotoxin requires specific treatment parameters, particularly solution pH and free chlorine residual. However, currently there has not been any investigation into the toxicological effect of solutions treated for the removal of these cyanotoxins by chlorine. Using the P53(def) transgenic mouse model mate and female C57BL/6J hybrid mice were used to investigate potential cancer inducing effects from such oral dosing solutions. Both purified cyanotoxins and toxic cell-free extract cyanobacterial solutions were chlorinated and administered over 90 and 170 days (respectively) in drinking water. No increase in cancer was found in any treatment. The parent cyanotoxins, microcystins, cylindrospermopsin and saxitoxins were readily removed by chlorine. There was no significant increase in the disinfection byproducts trihalomethanes or haloacetic acids, levels found were well below guideline values. Histological examination identified no effect of treatment solutions except male mice treated with chlorinated cylindrospermopsin (as a cell free extract). In this instance 40% of males were found to have fatty vacuolation in their livers, cause unknown. It is recommended that further toxicology be undertaken on chlorinated cyanobacterial solutions, particularly for non-genotoxic carcinogenic compounds, for example the Tg. AC transgenic mouse model. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Despite its widespread use, the Coale-Demeny model life table system does not capture the extensive variation in age-specific mortality patterns observed in contemporary populations, particularly those of the countries of Eastern Europe and populations affected by HIV/AIDS. Although relational mortality models, such as the Brass logit system, can identify these variations, these models show systematic bias in their predictive ability as mortality levels depart from the standard. We propose a modification of the two-parameter Brass relational model. The modified model incorporates two additional age-specific correction factors (gamma(x), and theta(x)) based on mortality levels among children and adults, relative to the standard. Tests of predictive validity show deviations in age-specific mortality rates predicted by the proposed system to be 30-50 per cent lower than those predicted by the Coale-Demeny system and 15-40 per cent lower than those predicted using the original Brass system. The modified logit system is a two-parameter system, parameterized using values of l(5) and l(60).