The plausibility of long-wavelength stress correlation or stress magnitude as a mechanism for precursory seismicity: Results from two simple elastic models

Observations of accelerating seismic activity prior to large earthquakes in natural fault systems have raised hopes for intermediate-term eartquake forecasting. If this phenomena does exist, then what causes it to occur? Recent theoretical work suggests that the accelerating seismic release sequence is a symptom of increasing long-wavelength stress correlation in the fault region. A more traditional explanation, based on Reid's elastic rebound theory, argues that an accelerating sequence of seismic energy release could be a consequence of increasing stress in a fault system whose stress moment release is dominated by large events. Both of these theories are examined using two discrete models of seismicity: a Burridge-Knopoff block-slider model and an elastic continuum based model. Both models display an accelerating release of seismic energy prior to large simulated earthquakes. In both models there is a correlation between the rate of seismic energy release with the total root-mean-squared stress and the level of long-wavelength stress correlation. Furthermore, both models exhibit a systematic increase in the number of large events at high stress and high long-wavelength stress correlation levels. These results suggest that either explanation is plausible for the accelerating moment release in the models examined. A statistical model based on the Burridge-Knopoff block-slider is constructed which indicates that stress alone is sufficient to produce accelerating release of seismic energy with time prior to a large earthquake.

Pharmacotherapy of intermittent claudication

Intermittent claudication (IC) is leg muscle pain, cramping and fatigue brought on by exercise and is the primary symptom of peripheral arterial disease. The goals of pharmacotherapy for IC are to increase the walking capacity/quality of life and to decrease rates of amputation. In 1988, pentoxifylline was the only drug that had reasonable supportive clinical trial evidence for being beneficial in IC. Since then a number of drugs have shown benefit or potential in IC. Cilostazol, a specific inhibitor of phosphodiesterase 3 and activator of lipoprotein lipase, clearly increases pain-free and absolute walking distances in claudicants. However, cilostazol does cause minor side effects including headache, diarrhoea, loose stools and flatulence. Naftidrofuryl, a serotonin (5-HT2) receptor antagonist and antiplatelet drug, is beneficial in claudicants. Inhibitors of platelet aggregation (including nitric oxide from L-arginine or glyceryl trinitrate) and anticoagulants (low molecular weight heparin, defibrotide) probably have both short and long-term benefits in IC. In addition, intravenous infusions of prostaglandins (PGs) PGE1 and PGI2 have an established role in severe peripheral arterial disease and the recent introduction of longer lasting and/or oral forms of the PGs makes them more likely to be useful in the IC associated with less severe forms of the disease. There are some exciting new approaches to the treatment of IC, including propionyl-L-carnitine and basic fibroblast growth factor (bFGF).

Long-run growth effects of taxation in a non-scale growth model with innovation

In previous studies, taxing income or consumption hinders long-run growth. Incorporating saving and leisure into the non-scale Schumpeterian model of [Journal of Political Economy 107 (1999) 715-730], we show that the usual growth effects of taxing consumption and labor income do not exist. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Determination of the hemispheric character (i.e. southern or northern latitudinal position) of equatorial ionosonde stations as deduced from long-term recordings of the minimum height of the F-region (h ' F)

The virtual (or minimum) height of the F-region (h'F), recorded over a number of solar cycles for I I equatorial and mid-latitude ionosonde stations, was used to deduce the hemispheric (i.e. southern or northern hemisphere) character of equatorial stations. The semi-annual median monthly height (h'F) variations consist of two components: major local summer maximum and winter sub-maximum (about 5 percent of the summer maximum). This hemispheric pattern was most consistently observed for equatorial stations (within 5degrees of the geomagnetic equator) in a period centred on the local midnight (21-03 LT) but was also present, to a lesser extent, at mid-latitude stations and at other time intervals. It is evident that the physical parameter h'F defines the hemispheric character of an equatorial station which has different (sometimes opposite) geographic and geomagnetic latitudes. There is a sharp transition in the latitudinal character of the stations on both sides of the equator leading to hypothesis that the equal maxima in h'F in December and June solstices are observed at a near-equator position labelled as ionosonde deduced equator (IDE). Such a signature was observed for an American equatorial (both geographic and geomagnetic) station Talara (Peru) which is an experimental support of the hypothesis. The IDE can be another useful parameter characterising the equatorial ionosphere. This finding reveals a new application of the standard ionosonde data in defining the geophysical character of equatorial stations, being an important contribution to space climatology. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Long QT syndrome in dogs with tick toxicity (Ixodes holocyclus)

Objective To evaluate cardiac electrical function in dogs with tick toxicity. Design A prospective clinical investigation of 39 client-owned dogs treated for naturally occurring tick toxicity. Procedure An ECG was performed on each dog on several occasions; at admission to hospital with tick toxicity, 24 h later, at discharge from hospital when clinically normal and approximately 12 months later. Results The mean QT interval corrected for heart rate (QTc) was prolonged at admission, 24 h and at discharge compared to the QTc measured 12 months later. T wave morphology was altered in dogs at admission. All other parameters were within normal limits. Conclusions The prolonged QTc interval and altered T wave morphology of dogs with tick toxicity reflects delayed cardiac repolarisation and is comparable with long QT syndrome (LQTS) in people who are predisposed to polymorphic ventricular tachycardia and sudden death. Resolution of ECG changes lagged behind clinical recovery.

The long-term effects of cooperative learning on children's behaviour and interactions

This study investigates the long-term effects of training in small-group and interpersonal behaviours on children's behaviours and interactions as they worked in small groups two years after they were initially trained. Forty-eight third grade children, who had been trained two years previously in cooperative group behaviours, were assigned to the Trained condition and 44 third grade children who had not previously been trained were assigned to the Untrained condition. The children in the trained and untrained groups were reconstituted from the pool of students who had participated previously in either trained or untrained group activities. The results showed that there was a long-term training effect with the children in the Trained groups demonstrating more cooperative behaviour and providing more explanations in response to requests for help than their untrained peers.

Use of GnRH agonist implants for long-term suppression of fertility in extensively managed heifers and cows

The ability of gonadotrophin releasing hormone (GnRH) agonist implants to suppress ovarian activity and prevent pregnancies, long-term, was examined in heifers and cows maintained under extensive management. At three cattle stations, heifers (2-year-old) and older cows (3- to 16-year-old) were assigned to a control group that received no treatment, or were treated with high-dose (12 mg, Station A) or low-dose (8 mg, Station B and Station Q GnRH agonist implants. The respective numbers of control and GnRH agonist-treated animals (heifers + cows) at each station were: Station A, 20 and 99; Station B, 19 and 89; Station C, 20 and 76. Animals were maintained with 4% bulls and monitored for pregnancy at 2-monthly intervals for approximately 12 months. Pregnancy rates for control heifers and control cows ranged from 60-90% and 80-100%, respectively, depending on the study site. The respective number of animals (heifers + cows) treated with GnRH agonist that conceived, and days to first conception, were: Station A, 9 (9%) and 336 3 days; Station B, 8 (10%) and 244 +/- 13 days; Station C, 20 (26%) and 231 +/- 3 days. Treatment with high-dose GnRH agonist prevented pregnancies for longer (similar to300 days) than treatment with low-dose GnRH agonist (similar to200 days). In the majority of heifers and cows treated with GnRH agonist, ovarian follicular growth was restricted to early antral follicles (2-4 mm). The findings indicate that GnRH agonist implants have considerable potential as a practical technology to suppress ovarian activity and control reproduction in female cattle maintained in extensive rangelands environments. The technology also has broader applications in diverse cattle production systems. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Long-term trends in sunshine duration and its association with schizophrenia birth rates and age at first registration - data from Australia and the Netherlands

Back ground. Based on the well-described excess of schizophrenia births in winter and spring, we hypothesised that individuals with schizophrenia (a) would be more likely to be born during periods of decreased perinatal sunshine, and (b) those born during periods of less sunshine would have an earlier age of first registration. Methods. We undertook an ecological analysis of long-term trends in perinatal sunshine duration and schizophrenia birth rates based on two mental health registers (Queensland. Australia n = 6630; The Netherlands n = 24, 474). For each of the 480 months between 1931 and 1970, the agreement between slopes of the trends in psychosis and long-term sunshine duration series were assessed. Age at first registration was assessed by quartiles of long-term trends in perinatal sunshine duration, Males and females were assessed separately. Results. Both the Dutch and Australian data showed a statistically significant association between falling long-term trends in sunshine duration around the time of birth and rising schizophrenia birth rates for males only. In both the Dutch and Australian data there were significant associations between earlier age of first registration and reduced long-term trends in sunshine duration around the time of birth for both males and females, Conclusions. A measure of long-term trends in perinatal sunshine duration was associated with two epidemiological features of schizophrenia in two separate data sets. Exposures related to sunshine duration warrant further consideration in schizophrenia research. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Long-range automaton models of earthquakes: Power-law accelerations, correlation evolution, and mode-switching

We introduce a conceptual model for the in-plane physics of an earthquake fault. The model employs cellular automaton techniques to simulate tectonic loading, earthquake rupture, and strain redistribution. The impact of a hypothetical crustal elastodynamic Green's function is approximated by a long-range strain redistribution law with a r(-p) dependance. We investigate the influence of the effective elastodynamic interaction range upon the dynamical behaviour of the model by conducting experiments with different values of the exponent (p). The results indicate that this model has two distinct, stable modes of behaviour. The first mode produces a characteristic earthquake distribution with moderate to large events preceeded by an interval of time in which the rate of energy release accelerates. A correlation function analysis reveals that accelerating sequences are associated with a systematic, global evolution of strain energy correlations within the system. The second stable mode produces Gutenberg-Richter statistics, with near-linear energy release and no significant global correlation evolution. A model with effectively short-range interactions preferentially displays Gutenberg-Richter behaviour. However, models with long-range interactions appear to switch between the characteristic and GR modes. As the range of elastodynamic interactions is increased, characteristic behaviour begins to dominate GR behaviour. These models demonstrate that evolution of strain energy correlations may occur within systems with a fixed elastodynamic interaction range. Supposing that similar mode-switching dynamical behaviour occurs within earthquake faults then intermediate-term forecasting of large earthquakes may be feasible for some earthquakes but not for others, in alignment with certain empirical seismological observations. Further numerical investigation of dynamical models of this type may lead to advances in earthquake forecasting research and theoretical seismology.