Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses for burden of disease and risk factor estimates

Epidemiological studies report confidence or uncertainty intervals around their estimates. Estimates of the burden of diseases and risk factors are subject to a broader range of uncertainty because of the combination of multiple data sources and value choices. Sensitivity analysis can be used to examine the effects of social values that have been incorporated into the design of the disability–adjusted life year (DALY). Age weight, where a year of healthy life lived at one age is valued differently from at another age, is the most controversial value built into the DALY. The discount rate, which addresses the difference in value of current versus future health benefits, also has been criticized. The distribution of the global disease burden and rankings of various conditions are largely insensitive to alternate assumptions about the discount rate and age weighting. The major effects of discounting and age weighting are to enhance the importance of neuropsychiatric conditions and sexually transmitted infections. The Global Burden of Disease study also has been criticized for estimating mortality and disease burden for regions using incomplete and uncertain data. Including uncertain results, with uncertainty quantified to the extent possible, is preferable, however, to leaving blank cells in tables intended to provide policy makers with an overall assessment of burden of disease. No estimate is generally interpreted as no problem. Greater investment in getting the descriptive epidemiology of diseases and injuries correct in poor countries will do vastly more to reduce uncertainty in disease burden assessments than a philosophical debate about the appropriateness of social value

An Economic Analysis of the Legal Concept of Trustees' Power of Investment

Authorised trustee status is a legal concept which has economic implications; one of the major implications is that it assists in the direction of investment funds into particular securities and areas of the economy. The concept of authorised trustee status, while attempting to achieve specific outcomes for the beneficiaries of trusts cannot be relied upon to secure these results. Economic analysis of the role of the trustee maintains that this role is one of portfolio manager; a role which is complex but which is explicable in terms of definable procedures and practices. The role of trustee as portfolio manager is one which requires greater financial knowledge than can be assumed is possessed by all trustees. The trustee as portfolio manager is required to maintain a review of decisions make under powers to invest trust assets. A solution to the problem of authorised trustee status is proposed. The solution takes two parts: the first is the adoption of the prudent person approach but with the codification of duties of the trustee and the explicit listing of the factors that a trustee should consider in using the investment powers. The second part of the proposed solution is to link the investment powers of trustees to the best practice features of securities advisers who are now licensed by a regulatory body, the Australian Securities and Investment Commission.

Assessing alternative models of individualism and collectivism: A confirmatory factor analysis

Six alternative structural models of individualism-collectivism are reviewed and empirically compared in a confirmatory factor analysis of questionnaire data from an Australian student sample (N=340). Central to the debate about the structure of this broad social attitude are the issues of (I) polarity (are individualism and collectivism bipolar opposites, or orthogonal factors?) and (2) dimensionality (are individualism and collectivism themselves higher-order constructs subsuming several more specific factors and, if so, what are they?). The data from this Australian sample support a model that represents individualism and collectivism as a higher-order bipolar factor hierarchically subsuming several bipolar reference-group-specific individualisms and collectivisms. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Insulin-like growth factor 2 cDNA cloning and ontogeny of gene expression in the liver of the marsupial brushtail possum (Trichosurus vulpecula)

The cDNA sequence for insulin-like growth factor 2 (IGF-2) was determined from the liver of the marsupial brushtail possum (Trichosurus vulpecula) using reverse transcription followed by polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) with gene-specific primers. The 359 bp of possum sequence encompassed the mature peptide, 27 bp of the signal peptide, and 125 bp of the E-peptide. Alignment of the deduced amino acid sequence with those from other species indicated that the mature peptide was 71 amino acids in length, 4 amino acids longer than most other mammals. At both the nucleotide and amino acid levels there was a high degree of sequence identity with IGF-2 from other mammalian and nonmammalian species. Amino acid identity ranged from 94.4% with a variant form of human IGF-2 to 80.3% with zebrafinch IGF-2. Northern analysis revealed that radiolabeled possum IGF-2, cDNA hybridized to multiple transcripts in the liver of both adult possums and 150-day-old pouch young and that the overall level of expression was greater in pouch young. Semiquantitative RT-PCR with total RNA from liver samples of pouch young aged 12 to 150 days postpartum and adults confirmed that IGF-2 gene expression was two to three times more abundant in pouch young than in adults but there was no significant change in the level of expression during pouch life. Unlike other mammalian species, in which there is a decline in levels of liver IGF-2 gene expression around the time of birth, levels in the marsupial brushtail possum remain elevated for at least 150 days after birth. This suggests that the decline in liver IGF-2 expression in marsupials and eutherians occurs at a similar stage of development and may reflect a role for this growth factor during the postnatal growth and development of the marsupial, (C) 2001 Academic Press.

Alterations in ciliary neurotrophic factor signaling in rapsyn deficient mice

Rapsyn is a key molecule involved in the formation of postsynaptic specializations at the neuromuscular junction, in its absence there are both pre- and post-synaptic deficits including failure to cluster acety]choline receptors. Recently we have documented increases in both nerve-muscle branching and numbers of motoneurons, suggesting alterations in skeletal muscle derived trophic support for motoneurons. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the contribution of target derived trophic factors to increases in motoneuron branching and number, in rapsyn deficient mice that had their postsynaptic specializations disrupted, We have used reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction and Western blot to document the expression of known trophic factors and their receptors in muscle, during the period of synapse formation in rapsyn deficient mouse embryos. We found that the mRNA levels for ciliary neurotrophic factor (CNTF) was decreased in the rapsyn deficient muscles compared with litter mate controls although those for NGF, BDNF, NT-3 and TGF-beta2 did not differ. We found that both the mRNA and the protein expression for suppressor of cytokine signaling 3 (SOCS3) decreased although janus kinase 2 (JAK2) did not change in the rapsyn deficient muscles compared with litter mate controls. These results suggest that failure to form postsynaptic specializations in rapsyn deficient mice has altered the CNTF cytokine signaling pathway within skeletal muscle, the target for motoneurons. This alteration may in part, account for the increased muscle nerve branching and motoneuron survival seen in rapsyn deficient mice. (C) 2001 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

NMR structure and backbone dynamics of a concatemer of epidermal growth factor homology modules of the human low-density lipoprotein receptor

The ligand-binding region of the low-density lipoprotein (LDL) receptor is formed by seven N-terminal, imperfect, cysteine-rich (LB) modules. This segment is followed by an epidermal growth factor precursor homology domain with two N-terminal, tandem, EGF-like modules that are thought to participate in LDL binding and recycling of the endocytosed receptor to the cell surface. EGF-A and the concatemer, EGF-AB, of these modules were expressed in Escherichia coli. Correct protein folding of EGF-A and the concatemer EGF-AB was achieved in the presence or absence of calcium ions, in contrast to the LB modules, which require them for correct folding. Homonuclear and heteronuclear H-1-N-15 NMR spectroscopy at 17.6 T was used to determine the three-dimensional structure of the concatemer. Both modules are formed by two pairs of short, anti-parallel beta -strands. In the concatemer, these modules have a fixed relative orientation, stabilized by calcium ion-binding and hydrophobic interactions at the interface. N-15 longitudinal and transverse relaxation rates, and {H-1}-N-15 heteronuclear NOEs were used to derive a model-free description of the backbone dynamics of the molecule. The concatemer appears relatively rigid, particularly near the calcium ion-binding site at the module interface, with an average generalized order parameter of 0.85 +/- 0.11. Some mutations causing familial hypercholesterolemia may now be rationalized. Mutations of D41, D43 and E44 in the EGF-B calcium ion-binding region may affect the stability of the linker and thus the orientation of the tandem modules. The diminutive core also provides little structural stabilization, necessitating the presence of disulfide bonds. The structure and dynamics of EGF-AB contrast with the N-terminal LB modules, which require calcium ions both for folding to form the correct disulfide connectivities and for maintenance of the folded structure, and are connected by highly mobile linking peptides. (C) 2001 Academic Press.

Variation in Alcohol Pharmacokinetics as a Risk Factor for Alcohol Dependence

Background: The significant association between alcohol dehydrogenase (ADH)-2 genotype and alcohol-dependence risk, demonstrated in both Asian and non-Asian populations, suggests a link between the metabolism of alcohol (ethanol) and individual differences in susceptibility to dependence. Methods: We tested this hypothesis by following up on subjects who took part in the Alcohol Challenge Twin Study conducted in 1979-1981 and comparing the blood and breath alcohol results in that study between subjects who subsequently did or did not meet diagnostic criteria for lifetime alcohol dependence in 1992-1993. Results: Subjects who met DSM-III-R criteria for lifetime alcohol dependence at follow-up had higher blood and breath alcohol values after alcohol challenge than never-dependent subjects. Multivariate analysis showed independent effects of susceptibility to alcohol dependence and smoking status on blood alcohol concentrations, whereas habitual alcohol intake at the time of the initial study had marginally significant effects. The risk of alcohol dependence was 2-fold higher in men and 3-fold higher in women with blood or breath alcohol concentrations in the highest quartile than in the lowest quartile. Conclusions: In view of this association and the known genetic influences on both alcohol pharmacokinetics and alcohol dependence, it is probable that part of the heritability of dependence is mediated by genes (other than the known ADH2 and ADH3 polymorphisms) affecting alcohol metabolism.

Suppression of keratinocyte growth and differentiation by transforming growth factor beta 1 involves multiple signaling pathways

Transforming growth factor beta1 treatment of keratinocytes results in a suppression of differentiation, an induction of extracellular matrix production, and a suppression of growth. In this study we utilized markers specific for each of these functions to explore the signaling pathways involved in mediating these transforming-growth-factor-beta1-induced activities. In the first instance, we found that the induction of extracellular matrix production (characterized by 3TP-Lux reporter activity) was induced in both keratinocytes and a keratinocyte-derived carcinoma cell line, SCC25, in a dose-dependent manner. Furthermore, transforming growth factor beta1 also suppressed the differentiation-specific marker gene, transglutaminase type 1, in both keratinocytes and SCC25 cells. In contrast, transforming growth factor beta1 inhibited proliferation of keratinocytes but did not cause growth inhibition in the SCC25 cells. Transforming-growth-factor-beta1-induced growth inhibition of keratinocytes was characterized by decreases in DNA synthesis, accumulation of hypophosphorylated Rb, and the inhibition of the E2F:Rb-responsive promoter, cdc2, and an induction of the p21 promoter. When the negative regulator of transforming growth factor beta1 signaling, SMAD7, was overexpressed in keratinocytes it could prevent transforming-growth-factor-beta1-induced activation of the 3TP-Lux and the p21 promoter. SMAD7 could also prevent the suppression of the transglutaminase type 1 by transforming growth factor beta1 but it could not inhibit the repression of the cdc2 promoter. These data indicate that the induction of 3TP-Lux and p21 and the suppression of transglutaminase type 1 are mediated by a different proximate signaling pathway to that regulating the suppression of the cdc2 gene. Combined, these data indicate that the regulation of transforming growth factor beta1 actions are complex and involve multiple signaling pathways.