Socio-economic, migrant and geographic differentials in coronary heart disease occurrence in New South Wales

Objective: This study examines the variation in coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality and acute myocardial infarction (AMI) by socio-economic status (SES), country of birth (COB) and geography (urban/rural) in the total population of New South Wales (Australia) in 1991-95. Method: CHD deaths and AMI are from complete enumerations of deaths and hospital admissions, respectively; and population denominators are from census information. Data are examined separately by sex, and comparisons of SES groups (based on municipalities), COB and region are analysed using Poisson regression, after adjustment for age. Results: The study identified higher risk for AMI admissions and CHD mortality in lower SES populations with significant linear trends, for both sexes, adjusted for age, region and COB. According to the population attributable fractions (PAF), 23-41% of the risk of CHD occurrence is due to SES lower than the highest quartile. The higher age-adjusted risk for CHD occurrence in rural and remote populations for both sexes, compared with urban communities, was lessened by adjustment for COB, and all but abolished when also adjusted for SES. COB analysis indicated significantly lower age-adjusted AMI admissions and CHD mortality compared with the Australian-born, Conclusions: Higher risks for CHD in rural populations compared with the capital city (Sydney) are due, in part, to lower SES, lesser migrant composition. Implications: Strategies for reducing CHD differentials should consider demographic factors and the fundamental need to reduce socio-economic inequalities, as well as targeting appropriate prevention measures.

Urban and rural suicide differentials in migrants and the Australian-born, New South Wales, Australia 1985-1994

We estimated risk of suicide in adults in New South Wales (NSW) by sex, country of birth and rural/urban residence, after adjusting for age; we also examined youth suicide (age 15-24 years). The study population was the entire population of NSW, Australia, aged greater than or equal to 15 years during the period 1985-1994. Poisson regression was used to examine the relationship between predictor variables and the risk of suicide, with the focus on migrant status and area of residence. A significantly higher risk of suicide was found in male migrants from Northern Europe and Eastern Europe/former USSR, compared to Australian-born males; a significantly lower suicide risk occurred in males from Southern Europe, the Middle East and Asia. In female migrants, those from UK/Eire, Northern Europe, Eastern Europe/former USSR and New Zealand exhibited a significantly higher risk of suicide compared to Australian-born females. A significantly lower risk of suicide occurred in females from the Middle East. Male migrants overall were at significantly lower risk of suicide than the Australian-born, while female migrants overall had a significantly higher risk of suicide than Australian-born females. Among migrant males overall, the rural-urban suicide risk differential was significantly higher for those living in non-metropolitan areas (RR = 1.9; 95% CI: 1.7-2.1). Suicide risk was significantly higher in non-metropolitan male immigrants from the UK/Eire (RR = 1.4; 95% CI: 1.1-1.7), Southern Europe (RR = 1.7; 95% CI: 1.2-2.4), Northern/Western Europe (1.5; 95% CI: 1.2-1.9), the Middle East (RR = 3.8; 95% CI: 1.9-7.8), New :Zealand (RR = 1.4; 95% CI: 1.0-1.8) and 'other' (RR = 2.6; 95% CI: 1.9-3.5), when compared to their urban counterparts. There was no statistically significant difference in suicide risk between rural and urban Australian-born males. For female suicide, significantly lower risk was found in female immigrants living in non-metropolitan areas who were from Northern/Western Europe (RR = 0.7; 95% CI: 0.4-0.96), as well as the Australian-born (RR = 0.7; 95% CI: 0.6-0.8), when compared to their urban counterparts. The non-metropolitan/metropolitan relative risk for suicide in female migrants overall was not significantly different from one. Among male youth there was a significantly higher suicide risk in non-metropolitan areas, with a relative risk estimate of 1.4 for Australian-born youth (95% CI: 1.2-1.5) and 1.7 for migrant youth (95% CI: 1.2-2.4), when compared with metropolitan counterparts. We conclude that suicide among migrant males living in non-metropolitan areas accounts for most of the excess of male suicide in rural NSW, and the significantly lower risk of suicide for non-metropolitan Australian-born women does not apply to migrant women. (C) 1999 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

A case-control study of employment status and mortality in a cohort of Australian youth

Recent studies have demonstrated a link in young populations between unemployment and ill health. The purpose of this study is to correlate mortality with employment status in two cohorts of young Australian males, aged 17-25 years, from 1984 to 1988. Two youth cohorts consisting of an initially unemployed sample (n = 1424 males) and a population sample (n = 4573 males), were surveyed annually throughout the study period. Those lost to follow-up during the survey period were matched with death registries across Australia. Employment status was determined from weekly diaries and death certificates and was designated as: employed or student; unemployed; not in the work force (excluding students). Conditional logistic regression, using age- and cohort- matched cases (deaths) and controls (alive), was used to estimate the odds ratio (OR) of dying with regard to employment status, taking into account potential confounders such as ethnicity, aboriginality, educational attainment, pre-existing health problems, socio-economic status of parents, and other factors. Twenty three male survey respondents were positively matched to death registry records. Compared to those employed or students (referent group), significantly elevated ORs were found to be associated with neither being in the workforce nor a student for all cause, external cause, and external cause mortality other than suicide. Odds ratios were adjusted for age, survey cohort, ethnicity, pre-existing physical and mental health status, education level, and socio-economic status of parent(s). A statistically significant increasing linear trend in odds ratios of male mortality for most cause groups was found across the employment categories, from those employed or student (lowest ORs), through those unemployed; to those not in the workforce (highest ORs). Suicide was higher, but not statistically significantly, in those unemployed or not in the workforce. Suicide also was associated, though not significantly, with the respondent not living with their parents when they were 14 years of age. No association was found between mortality and past unemployment experience, as measured by length of time spent unemployed, or the number of spells of unemployment experienced during the survey. The results of this study underscore the elevated risk to survival in young males as a consequence of being neither employed nor a student. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Leaking urine in Australian women: Prevalence and associated conditions

The paper aims to (1) assess the prevalence of leaking urine and to (2) explore associations between leaking urine and a variety of other symptoms, conditions, surgical procedures and life events in three large cohorts of Australian women, who are participants in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health. Young women aged 18-23 (N = 14,000), mid-age women, 45-50 (N 13,738) and older women, 70-75 (N = 12,417), were recruited randomly from the national HIC/Medicare database. Leaking urine was reported by approximately one in eight young women [estimated prevalence 12.8% (95% CI: 12.2-13.3)] and one in three mid-age women [36.1% (CI: 35.2-37.0)] and older women [35.0% (CI: 34.1-35.9)]. Leaking urine was significantly associated with parity, conditions which increase the pressure on the pelvic floor such as constipation and obesity, past gynecological surgery and conditions which can impact on bladder control. The study showed that fewer than half the women had sought help for the problem and that younger women were less likely to be satisfied with the help available for this problem. Strategies for continence promotion, including opportunistic raising of the issue at the time of cervical screening and pregnancy care are suggested, so that the health and social outcomes of untreated chronic incontinence in women might be improved.

Women's health Australia: On the progress of the main cohort studies

More than 41,000 women aged 18-23, 45-50, and 70-75 years in 1996 are participating in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health (Women's Health Australia). Baseline surveys were conducted for all three cohorts in 1996, and the first follow-up survey of the mid-age group in 1998 has achieved a response rate exceeding 90%. The main findings so far reflect the large differences in the life experiences of the three cohorts. The young women report high levels of stress. The physical and mental health of those with young children is worse than for those without children, but confounding by sociodemographic characteristics may account for the differences. Two thirds of young women in the healthy weight or underweight range would like to weigh less, and early onset of dieting is associated with poorer physical and mental health. Most of the women in the mid-age group have multiple roles-in paid work, home duties, and caring for children and other dependents. The potential of the study to investigate the long-term impact of such busy lives on health outcomes is considerable. At this stage, the main health issues for these women relate to tiredness, weight gain, and menopause. The older cohort presents a picture of positive aging. These women are heavier users of health services than the mid-age and younger women, and they are also more satisfied with these services. Although their physical health is poorer, their mental health is better, and they report less stress than women in the other two cohorts. The follow-up survey of this group, planned for 1999, will focus on the coping strategies used by these women. An overall goal of the project is to understand the interactions among social roles, life events, and women's health in order to provide a basis for improved health policies and services. Analysis of these interactions, which relies on both quantitative and qualitative data, poses many challenges that will be addressed as the longitudinal data become available.

Continuity of care and readmission in two service systems: a comparative Victorian and Groningen case-register study

Objective: We compared service consumption, continuity of care and risk of readmission in a record linkage follow-up study of cohorts of patients with schizophrenia and related disorders in Victoria (Australia) and in Groningen (The Netherlands). These areas are interesting to compare because mental health care is in a different stage of deiustitutionalization. More beds are available in Groningen and more community resources are available in Victoria. Method: The cohorts were followed for 4 years, since discharge from inpatient services using record linkage data available in the psychiatric case-registers in both areas. Survival analysis was used to study continuity of care and risk of readmission. Results: Available indicators showed a higher level of continuity of care in Victoria. While the relative risk of readmission was the same in both areas and not affected by aftercare contact after discharge, the number of days spent in hospital was much higher in the Groningen register area. Conclusion: These findings provide further support for earlier reports that the risk of readmission is predominantly affected by attributes of mental illness. However, the duration of admissions, is strongly affected by service system variables, including the provision of continuity of care.

Administration of growth hormone or IGF-I to pregnant rats on a reduced diet throughout pregnancy does not prevent fetal intrauterine growth retardation and elevated blood pressure in adult offspring

Increasing evidence from human epidemiological studies suggests that poor growth before birth is associated with postnatal growth retardation and the development of cardiovascular disease in adulthood. We have shown previously that nutritional deprivation in the pregnant rat leads to intrauterine growth retardation (IUGR), postnatal growth failure, changes in the endocrine parameters of the somatotrophic axis, and to increased blood pressure in later life. In the present study, we investigated whether administration of insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF-I) or bovine growth hormone (GH) during pregnancy could prevent IUGR and/or alter long-term outcome. Dams h-om day 1 of pregnancy throughout gestation received a diet of nd libitum available food or a restricted dietary intake of 30% of ad libitum fed dams. From day 10 of gestation, dams were treated for 10 days with three times daily subcutaneous injections of saline (100 mu l), IGF-I (2 mu g/g body weight) or GH (2 mu g/g body weight). Maternal weight gain was significantly increased (P

Leaking urine: Prevalence and associated factors in Australian women

The Women's Health Australia project provided the opportunity to examine the prevalence of leaking urine and associated variables in three large cohorts of Australian women 18-23 years of age (young N = 14,761), 45-50 (mid-age N = 14,070), and 70-75 (older N = 12,893). The proportion of women reporting leaking urine was 12.8% (95% CI: 12.2-13.3), 36.1% (35.2-37.0), and 35% (34.1-35.9) in each of the three cohorts, respectively. Logistic regression analysis showed significant associations between leaking urine and parity in the young and mid-age women, and between leaking urine and constipation, other bowel symptoms, body mass index, and urine that burns or stings in all three groups. in the mid-age and older cohorts, women who reported having both hysterectomy and prolapse repair, or prolapse repair alone, were also more likely to report leaking urine. Lower scores on the physical and mental component summary scores of the medical outcomes survey short form (36 items) questionnaire suggest lower quality of life among women who report leaking urine, compared with those who do not. (C) 1999 Wiley-Liss,Inc.

Life tables of the processionary caterpillar Ochrogaster lunifer Herrich-Schaffer (Lepidoptera : Thaumetopoeidae) at local and regional scales

A major ongoing debate in population ecology has surrounded the causative factors underlying the abundance of phytophagous insects and whether or not these factors limit or regulate herbivore populations. However, it is often difficult to identify mortality agents in census data, and their distribution and relative importance across large spatial scales are rarely understood. Were, we present life tables for egg batches and larval cohorts of the processionary caterpillar Ochrogaster lunifer Herrich-Schaffer, using intensive local sampling combined with extensive regional monitoring to ascertain the relative importance of different mortality factors at different localities. Extinction of entire cohorts (representing the entire reproductive output of one female) at natural localities was high, with 82% of the initial 492 cohorts going extinct. Mortality was highest in the egg and early instar stages due to predation from dermestid beetles, and while different mortality factors (e.g. hatching failure, egg parasitism and failure to establish on the host) were present at many localities, dermestid predation, either directly observed or inferred from indirect evidence, was the dominant mortality factor at 89% of localities surveyed. Predation was significantly higher in plantations than in natural habitats. The second most important mortality factor was resource depletion, with 14 cohorts defoliating their hosts. Egg and larval parasitism were not major mortality agents. A combination of predation and resource depletion consistently accounted for the majority of mortality across localities, suggesting that both factors are important in limiting population abundance. This evidence shows that O. lunifer is not regulated by natural enemies alone, but that resource patches (Acacia trees) ultimately, and frequently, act together to limit population growth.

Increased risk of psychosis in rural-born individuals: An Australian catchment-area study

The aim of the Brisbane Psychosis Study was to examine a range of candidate genetic and nongenetic risk factors in a large, representative sample of patients with psychosis and well controls. The patients (n=310) were drawn from a census conducted as part of the National Survey of Mental Health and Wellbeing. An age and sex-matched well control group (n = 303) was drawn from the same catchment area. Candidate risk factors assessed included migrant status of proband and proband's parents, occupation of father at time of proband's birth, place of birth and place of residence during the first 5 years of life (urbanicity), self-reported pregnancy and birth complications, season of birth and family history. The main analyses were group (cases versus controls) comparisons, with planned subgroup analyses (1) group comparisons for Australian-born subjects only, (2) within-patient comparisons of affective versus nonaffective psychoses. Of the individuals with psychosis, 68% had DSMIII-R schizophrenia. In the main analyses, there were no significant group differences on season of birth, place of birth, place of residency in the first 5 years, occupation of fathers at time of birth or pregnancy and birth complications. Patients had significantly more family members with schizophrenia. Significantly fewer of the patients were migrants or offspring of migrants compared to the controls. When only Australianborn subjects were assessed (n=457), the findings were essentially unchanged apart from a significant excess of cases born in rural sites (chi-square=9.54, df3, p=0.02). There were no significant differences in the risk factors for the comparison involving affective versus nonaffective psychoses. Potential explanations for the inverse urban-rural risk gradient are reviewed. The Stanley Foundation supported this project

Dysmorphogenesis in psychosis: Quantitative and qualitative measures involving the head and face

In this study, we examined qualitative and quantitative measures involving the head and face in a sample of patients and well controls drawn from the Brisbane Psychosis Study. Patients with psychosis (n=310) and age and sex-matched controls (n=303) were drawn from a defined catchment area. Features assessed involved hair whorls (position, number, and direction), eyes (epicanthus), supraorbital ridge, ears (low set, protrusion, hypoplasia, ear lobe attachment, asymmetry, helix width), and mouth (palate height and shape, palate ridges, furrowed and bifid tongue). Quantitative measures related to skull size (circumference, width and length) selected facial heights and depths. The impact of selected risk factors (place and season of birth, fathers' occupation at time of birth, selfreported pregnancy and birth complications, family history) were examined in the entire group, while the association between age of onset and dysmorphology was assessed within the patient group. Significant group (cases versus controls) differences included: patients had smaller skull bases, smaller facial heights, larger facial depths, lower set and protruding ears, different palate shape and fewer palate ridges. In the entire sample significant associations included: (a) those with positive family history of mental illness bad smaller head circumference, cranial length and facial heights; (b) pregnancy and birth complications was associated with smaller facial beights: (c) larger head circumference was associated with higher ranked fathers' occupations at birth. Within the patient group, age of onset was significantly lower in those with more qualitative anomalies or with larger facial heights. The group differences were not due to outliers or distinct subgroups, suggesting that the factors responsible for the differences may be subtle and widely dispersed in the patient group. The Stanley Foundation supported this project.

Quasistationarity of continuous-time Markov chains with positive drift

We shall study continuous-time Markov chains on the nonnegative integers which are both irreducible and transient, and which exhibit discernible stationarity before drift to infinity sets in. We will show how this 'quasi' stationary behaviour can be modelled using a limiting conditional distribution: specifically, the limiting state probabilities conditional on not having left 0 for the last time. By way of a dual chain, obtained by killing the original process on last exit from 0, we invoke the theory of quasistationarity for absorbing Markov chains. We prove that the conditioned state probabilities of the original chain are equal to the state probabilities of its dual conditioned on non-absorption, thus allowing us to establish the simultaneous existence and then equivalence, of their limiting conditional distributions. Although a limiting conditional distribution for the dual chain is always a quasistationary distribution in the usual sense, a similar statement is not possible for the original chain.

Mothers' mental illness and child behavior problems: Cause-effect association or observation bias

Objective: A number, of studies have consistently found that a mother's mental health (particularly her level of depression) is a strong predictor of mental health problems experienced by her child(ren). However, the validity of this finding is in doubt because the majority of these studies have relied on maternal reports as indicators of children's behavior. Method: This prospective, longitudinal study examines data an the mental health of the mother from prior to the birth of her child to when the child reaches 14 years of age. Child behavior is measured at 14 years of age using reports from mother and child. Mother and child responses are compared to provide an indication of the possible magnitude of maternal observation bias in the reporting of child behavior problems. Results: Anxious and/or depressed mothers tend to report more cases of child behavior problems than do their mentally healthy counterparts or children themselves. Differences between mothers and youths In reporting behavior problems appear to be related to the mothers' mental health. Conclusions: Current maternal mental health impairment appears to have a substantial effect on the reporting of child behavior problems by the mother, thereby raising questions about the validity of reports of child behavior by persons who are currently emotionally distressed.

Further results on the relationship between mu-invariant measures and quasi-stationary distributions for absorbing continuous-time Markov chains

This note considers continuous-time Markov chains whose state space consists of an irreducible class, C, and an absorbing state which is accessible from C. The purpose is to provide results on mu-invariant and mu-subinvariant measures where absorption occurs with probability less than one. In particular, the well-known premise that the mu-invariant measure, m, for the transition rates be finite is replaced by the more natural premise that m be finite with respect to the absorption probabilities. The relationship between mu-invariant measures and quasi-stationary distributions is discussed. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

New methods for determining quasi-stationary distributions for Markov chains

We shall be concerned with the problem of determining quasi-stationary distributions for Markovian models directly from their transition rates Q. We shall present simple conditions for a mu-invariant measure m for Q to be mu-invariant for the transition function, so that if m is finite, it can be normalized to produce a quasi-stationary distribution. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.