Age-at-first-registration for affective psychosis and schizophrenia

We compared the age-at-first-registration for patients with schizophrenia and affective psychosis in a statewide mental health register. After excluding those receiving (1) a diagnosis of both schizophrenia (ICD-9 295.x) and affective psychosis (ICD-9 296.x), or (2) a diagnosis of ICD-9 296.1 (which can cover major depressive episode), we adjusted the distributions for the age structure of the background general population. We found that all distributions showed a wide age range of onset, with a similar male modal age group of 20-24 for schizophrenia and 25-29 for affective psychosis. The female modal age group was 50-54 for both diagnoses. Although more individuals were diagnosed with schizophrenia (males = 2,434, females = 1,609) than with affective psychosis (males = 670, females = 913), the shape of the two distributions was similar. This finding suggests that factors influencing age-at-first-registration for schizophrenia and affective psychosis may be similar, especially for females.

Gestational diabetes mellitus: From consensus to action on screening and treatment

The 1998 consensus guidelines on the management of gestational diabetes mellitus from the Australasian Diabetes in Pregnancy Society emphasised that, “due to a lack of good quality randomised controlled clinical trials in the area of [gestational diabetes mellitus], these guidelines are based on what is a reasonable consensus of informed opinion in Australasia”.1 The clear benefits of treating women with gestational diabetes according to these guidelines have now been demonstrated by the Australian Carbohydrate Intolerance Study in Pregnant Women (ACHOIS).2 This study randomised 1000 women with gestational diabetes to either routine antenatal care or to an intervention that comprised home glucose monitoring, review by a diabetes educator, dietitian and physician, and insulin therapy if glycaemic targets were not met. Serious adverse perinatal outcomes occurred in 1% of the intervention group versus 4% of the routine-care group (adjusted relative risk, 0.33 [95% CI, 0.14–0.75]). The percentage of infants who were large for gestational age was lower in the intervention group (13% v 22%), with no increase in those who were small for gestational age. Although induction of labour was more common in the intervention group (39% v 29%), rates of caesarean delivery were similar (around 31%). Measures of maternal quality of life were more favourable in the intervention group. To prevent one serious perinatal outcome, 34 women needed to be treated. The 1998 guidelines were equivocal in regard to screening for gestational diabetes, allowing either for universal screening or for selective screening based on clinical risk factors in relatively lowrisk populations. In the light of the findings of ACHOIS, we believe that universal screening should now be accepted and implemented.

Achieving the millennium development goals for health - Cost effectiveness analysis of strategies for. maternal and neonatal health in developing countries

Objective To determine the costs and benefits of interventions for maternal and newborn health to assess the appropriateness of current strategies and guide future plans to attain the millennium development goals. Design Cost effectiveness analysis. Setting Two regions classified by the World Health Organization according to their epidemiological grouping: Afr-E, those countries in sub-Saharan Africa with very high adult and high child mortality, and Sear-D, comprising countries in South East Asia with high adult and high child mortality. Data sources Effectiveness data from several sources, including trials, observational studies, and expert opinion. For resource inputs, quantifies came from WHO guidelines, literature, and expert opinion, and prices from the WHO choosing interventions that are cost effective database. Main outcome measures Cost per disability adjusted life year (DALY) averted in year 2000 international dollars. Results The most cost effective mix of interventions was similar in Afr-E and Sear-D. These were the community based newborn care package, followed by antenatal care (tetanus toxoid, screening for pre-eclampsia, screening and treatment of asymptomatic bacteriuria and syphilis); skilled attendance at birth, offering first level maternal and neonatal care around childbirth; and emergency obstetric and neonatal care around and after birth. Screening and treatment of maternal syphilis, community based management of neonatal pneumonia, and steroids given during the antenatal period were relatively less cost effective in Sear-D. Scaling up all of the included interventions to 95% coverage would halve neonatal and maternal deaths. Conclusion Preventive interventions at the community level for newborn babies and at the primary care level for mothers and newborn babies are extremely cost effective, but the millennium development goals for maternal and child health will not be achieved without universal access to clinical services as well.

(Review) Body mass index and risk of diabetes mellitus in the Asia-Pacific region

Few prospective data from the Asia Pacific region are available relating body mass index to the risk of diabetes. Our objective was to provide reliable age, sex and region specific estimates of the associations between body mass index and diabetes. Twenty-seven cohort studies from Asia, New Zealand and Australia, including 154,989 participants, contributed 1,244,793 person-years of follow-up. Outcome data included a combination of incidence of diabetes (based on blood glucose measurements) and fatal diabetes events. Hazard ratios were calculated from Cox models, stratified by sex and cohort, and adjusted for age at risk and smoking. During follow-up (mean = 8 years), 75 fatal diabetes events and 242 new cases of diabetes were documented. There were continuous positive associations between baseline body mass index and risk of diabetes with each 2 kg/m(2) lower body mass index associated with a 27% (23-30%) lower risk of diabetes. The associations were stronger in younger age groups, and regional comparisons demonstrated slightly stronger associations in Asian than in Australasian cohorts (P = 0.04). This overview provides evidence of a strong continuous association between body mass index and diabetes in the Asia Pacific region. The results indicate considerable potential for reduction in incidence of diabetes with population-wide lowering of body mass index in this region.

Overweight and obesity increase the risk of coronary heart disease: A pooled analysis of 30 prospective studies

The importance of overweight as a risk factor for coronary heart disease (CHD) remains unsettled. We estimated the relative risk (RR) for CHD associated with underweight (body mass index, BMI < 20 kg/m2), overweight (25 – 30 kg/m2) and obesity (= 30 kg/m2), compared with normal weight (20 – 25 kg/m2) in a random effects meta-analysis of 30 prospective studies, including 389,239 healthy, predominantly Caucasian persons. We also explored sources of heterogeneity between studies and examined effects of systematic adjustment for confounding and intermediary variables. Pooled age-, sex- and smoking-adjusted RRs (95% confidence interval) for overweight, obesity and underweight compared with normal weight were 1.33 (1.24 – 1.43), 1.69 (1.44 – 1.99) and 1.01 (0.85 – 1.20), respectively. Stratified analyses showed that pooled RRs for BMI were higher for studies with longer follow-up (= vs. < 15 years) and younger populations (< vs. = 60 years). Additional adjustment for blood pressure, cholesterol levels and physical activity decreased the RR per 5 BMI units from 1.28 (1.21 – 1.34) to 1.16 (1.11 – 1.21). We conclude that overweight and obesity are associated with a substantially increased CHD risk in Caucasians, whereas underweight is not. Prevention and reduction of overweight and obesity, therefore, remain of importance for preventing CHD.

The impact of diabetes on survival among patients with first myocardial infarction

OBJECTIVE - The purpose of this paper is to estimate the impact of diabetes on survival among patients with first acute myocardial infarction, using data from the World Health Organization (WHO) Monitoring Trends and Determinants of Cardiovascular Disease (MONICA) Project in Newcastle, New South Wales, Australia. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS - The WHO MONICA Project is a community-based surveillance system that monitors coronary heart disease morbidity and mortality. All patients with suspected coronary events were observed for 28 days after the onset of symptoms. RESULTS - Of 5,322 patients with acute myocardial infarction and no previous history of ischemic heart disease (3,643 men and 1,679 women), 333 men (9%) and 224 women (13%) had a history of diabetes. The age-adjusted 28-day case fatality for women with diabetes (25%) was significantly higher than for women without diabetes (16%); relative risk 1.56 (95% CI: 1.19-2.04). The difference for men was also significant (25% with diabetes and 20% without diabetes); relative risk 1.25 (95% CI: 1.02-1.53). Age-specific case fatality increased significantly with age in both men and women without diabetes, but systematic age effects were not so apparent in patients with diabetes. Case fatality significantly decreased over the study period in patients without diabetes, but not among the diabetic patients. CONCLUSIONS - The increased risk of death in the diabetic patients remained after accounting for their poorer risk factor profiles; even if they reached the hospital alive, diabetic patients were also less likely to survive than nondiabetic patients. The relative impact of diabetes on survival is greater in women than in men.

Whose diet has changed?

The same questions about diet were asked in two community-based surveys conducted in the Hunter Region of New South Wales in 1983 and 1994. There were substantial changes in diet over the period; for example, the proportion of respondents who reported using low-fat or skim milk increased from 25 per cent to 51 per cent, the proportion eating meat fewer than five times a week doubled from 21 per cent to 42 per cent and the proportion eating fewer than three eggs per week increased from 55 per cent to 80 per cent. In both surveys, women reported eating a healthier diet than men, and older people and those of higher socioeconomic status reported better diets than younger people or people with less education or lower status occupations. The surprising finding was that over the 11-year period the changes in patterns of food consumption were remarkably similar across all strata of the population. The conclusions are that wide-spread dietary change is possible. However, the changes in the last decade related mainly to reducing the risk of cardiovascular disease; similar behavioural changes to reduce the risk of diet-related cancer are required.

Breast cancer five-year survival in New South Wales women, 1972 to 1991

This study of breast cancer survival is based on analysis of five-year relative survival of 38 362 cases of invasive breast cancer in New South Wales (NSW) women, incident between 1972 and 1991, with follow-up to 1992, using data from the population-based NSW Central Cancer Registry. Survival was ascertained by matching the registry file of breast cancers against NSW death certificates from 1972 to 1992, mainly by automated probabilistic linkage. Absolute survival of cases was compared with expected survival of age- and period-matched NSW women. Proportional hazard regression analysis was used for examination of the effects on excess mortality of age, period of diagnosis and degree of spread at diagnosis. Relative survival at five years increased from 70 per cent in 1972-1976 to 77 per cent in 1987-1991. Survival improved during the 1970s and in the late 1980s. Regression analysis suggested that part of the improved survival in the late 1980s was due to lesser degree of spread at diagnosis, whereas the improved survival during the 1970s may have been due to treatment. Survival was better for those aged 40-49 years (RR = 0.86) and worse for those aged greater than or equal to 70 years (RR = 1.22) compared with the referent group (60-69 years). Excess mortality was much less for those with invasive localised disease than those with regional spread (RR = 3.1) or metastatic cancer (RR = 15.5) at diagnosis. For the most recent period (1987-1991), relative five-year survival was 90, 70 and 18 per cent, respectively, for the three degree-of-spread categories.

Asthma mortality in Australia 1920-94: Age, period, and cohort effects

Study objective-To investigate asthma mortality during 1920-94 in Australia in order to assess the relative role of period and birth cohort effects. Design-Asthma mortality (both sexes) was age standardised and examined for changes over time. The data were also examined for age, period, and cohort (APC) effects using Poisson regression modelling. Setting-National Australian mortality data. Participants-Population (both sexes) aged 15-34 years, 1920-94. Main results-Age adjusted period rates indicate an increase in asthma mortality during the 1950s, and increases and subsequent falls (epidemics) during the mid 1960s and late 1980s. APC modelling suggested an increasing cohort effect (adjusted for both age and period) from the birth cohort 1950-54 onwards. Period effects (adjusted for age and cohort) are characterised by an increase in the 1950s (possibly due to changes in diagnostic labelling), minimal or no increases in the mid 1960s and late 1980s (where period peaks had been noted when data were adjusted for age only), and declines in mortality risk subsequent to the periods where age-period analysis had noted increases. Thus, in Australia, some of the mid 1960s epidemic in asthma deaths, and all of the late 1980s mortality increase, seem to be attributable to cohort effects. Conclusions-The increase in asthma mortality cohort effect is consistent with empirical evidence of recent increases in prevalence (and presumably incidence) of asthma in Australia, and suggests the need for more research into the underlying environmental aetiology of this condition.

Testing market efficiency: Evidence from the NFL sports betting market

This article examines the efficiency of the National Football League (NFL) betting market. The standard ordinary least squares (OLS) regression methodology is replaced by a probit model. This circumvents potential econometric problems, and allows us to implement more sophisticated betting strategies where bets are placed only when there is a relatively high probability of success. In-sample tests indicate that probit-based betting strategies generate statistically significant profits. Whereas the profitability of a number of these betting strategies is confirmed by out-of-sample testing, there is some inconsistency among the remaining out-of-sample predictions. Our results also suggest that widely documented inefficiencies in this market tend to dissipate over time.

Population versus clinical view of case fatality from acute coronary heart disease - Results from the WHO MONICA Project 1985-1990

Background The clinical view of case fatality (CF) from acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in those reaching the hospital alive is different from the population view. Registration of both hospitalized AMI cases and out-of-hospital coronary heart disease (CHD) deaths in the WHO MONICA Project allows both views to be reconciled. The WHO MONICA Project provides the largest data set worldwide to explore the relationship between CHD CF and age, sex, coronary event rate, and first versus recurrent event. Methods and Results All 79 669 events of definite AMI or possible coronary death, occurring from 1985 to 90 among 5 725 762 people, 35 to 64 years of age, in 29 MONICA populations are the basis for CF calculations. Age-adjusted CF (percentage of CHD events that were fatal) was calculated across populations, stratified for different time periods, and related to age, sex, and CHD event rate. Median 28-day population CF was 49% (range, 35% to 60%) in men and 51% (range, 34% to 70%) in women and was particularly higher in women than men in populations in which CHD event rates were low. Median 28-day CF for hospitalized events was much lower: in men 22% (range, 15% to 36%) and in women 27% (range, 19% to 46%). Among hospitalized events CF was twice as high for recurrent as for first events. Conclusions Overall 28-day CF is halved for hospitalized events compared with all events and again nearly halved for hospitalized 24-hour survivors. Because approximately two thirds of 28-day CHD deaths in men and women occurred before reaching the hospital, opportunities for reducing CF through improved care in the acute event are limited. Major emphasis should be on primary and secondary prevention.

Prejudice against female children: Economics and cultural explanations, and India evidence

Shows how economic theories based on parental self-interest may explain parental discrimination against daughters relative to sons. However, such theories often need to be adjusted (or even discarded) to allow for altruism of parents towards their children, and to take account of cultural influences on parental desires to have children of particular gender, and care equally for their children of different gender. The latter point is illustrated by a study of two different communities. In one situated in the Santal tribal belt I West Bengal, discrimination against daughters is found to be marked and accords (given the structure of society) with predictions of economic theories based on the pursuit of parental self-interest. By contrast, it is found that although the Knondh-dominated community in Orissa experiences similar economic conditions and social structures to the West Bengal communities, parental discrimination against daughters is almost absent. The differences seem to arise from a difference between the cultural values shared by the Kondhs in Orissa and those shared by the West Bengal community consisting of Santals and Bengali Hindus. This suggests that the applicability of economic theories of the family depends significantly on the social contexts in which they are to be applied. In this respect, both social structures and cultural values are important.

Ross River virus transmission, infection, and disease: a cross-disciplinary review

Ross River virus (RRV) is a fascinating, important arbovirus that is endemic and enzootic in Australia and Papua New Guinea and was epidemic in the South Pacific in 1979 and 1980. Infection with RRV may cause disease in humans, typically presenting as peripheral polyarthralgia or arthritis, sometimes with fever and rash. RRV disease notificatïons in Australia average 5,000 per year. The first well-described outbreak occurred in 1928. During World War II there were more outbreaks, and the name epidemic polyarthritis was applied. During a 1956 outbreak, epidemic polyarthritis was linked serologically to a group A arbovirus (Alphavirus). The virus was subsequently isolated from Aedes vigilax mosquitoes in 1963 and then from epidemic polyarthritis patients. We review the literature on the evolutionary biology of RRV, immune response to infection, pathogenesis, serologic diagnosis, disease manifestations, the extraordinary variety of vertebrate hosts, mosquito vectors, and transmission cycles, antibody prevalence, epidemiology of asymptomatic and symptomatic human infection, infection risks, and public health impact. RRV arthritis is due to joint infection, and treatment is currently based on empirical anti-inflammatory regimens. Further research on pathogenesis may improve understanding of the natural history of this disease and lead to new treatment strategies. The burden of morbidity is considerable, and the virus could spread to other countries. To justify and design preventive programs, we need accurate data on economic costs and better understanding of transmission and behavioral and environmental risks.

Cigarette smoking and risk of epithelial ovarian cancer (Australia)

Objectives: We studied the association between cigarette smoking and ovarian cancer in a population-based case-control study. Methods: A total of 794 women with histologically confirmed epithelial ovarian cancer who were aged 18-79 years and resident in one of three Australian states were interviewed, together with 855 controls aged 18-79 years selected at random from the electoral roll from the same states. Information was obtained about cigarette smoking and other factors including age, parity, oral contraceptive use, and reproductive factors. We estimated the relative risk of ovarian cancer associated with cigarette smoking, accounting for histologic type, using multivariable logistic regression to adjust for confounding factors. Results: Women who had ever smoked cigarettes were more likely to develop ovarian cancer than women who had never smoked (adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 1.5; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.2-1.9). Risk was greater for ovarian cancers of borderline malignancy (OR = 2.4; 95% CI = 1.4-4.1) than for invasive tumors (OR = 1.7; 95% CI = 1.2-2.4) and the histologic subtype most strongly associated overall was the mucinous subtype among both current smokers (OR = 3.2; 95% CI = 1.8-5.7) and past smokers (OR = 2.3; 95% CI = 1.3-3.9). Conclusions: These data extend recent findings and suggest that cigarette smoking is a risk factor for ovarian cancer, especially mucinous and borderline mucinous types. From a public health viewpoint, this is one of the few reports of a potentially avoidable risk factor for ovarian cancer.

An evaluation of the changes in malocclusion index scores over a 25-year period

Background: The measured values of specific traits of occlusion may be subject to significant change due to growth and maturation of the dentofacial structures. Some traits may show improvement while others may show deterioration. Rarely is there an opportunity to examine a sample of occlusions 25 years after the acquisition of the original set of records. This study examines the changes in traits of occlusion in a sample of 46 subjects who were originally examined between 1971-1973 and for whom records were again obtained in 1998. Methods: The 46 patients were a sub-group of a previously selected randomised school-based sample and study models obtained in 1971-1973 were still available. New models for each patient were obtained in 1998. Of the 46 subjects, only eight had received orthodontic treatment. Results: Assessments of the changes in specific traits were made using the methods proposed in the Harry L Draker, California Modification (HLD Cal Mod) index. This simple index was chosen because the main component traits were well defined and, when analysed separately, reflected changes with time. The total index score gave a broad indication of the global changes in the individual's occlusion. The five basic traits of the HLD index include overjet, overbite, openbite, mandibular protrusion and labio-lingual spread. Three additional traits (ectopic eruption, anterior crowding and posterior crossbite) are used in the HLD Cal Mod index. These traits provided a useful reflection of occlusal changes with time. Measurements were made with reference to specifications and the details outlined in the HLD Cal Mod protocol. The results revealed an increase in total index scores over time with a significant increase in lower labio-lingual spread associated with an increased score in anterior crowding. Overjet and overbite, however, displayed a significant decrease with time. Conclusions: These findings are in keeping with previous studies and highlight the importance of time as a significant issue in the assessment of occlusion.