Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses for burden of disease and risk factor estimates

Epidemiological studies report confidence or uncertainty intervals around their estimates. Estimates of the burden of diseases and risk factors are subject to a broader range of uncertainty because of the combination of multiple data sources and value choices. Sensitivity analysis can be used to examine the effects of social values that have been incorporated into the design of the disability–adjusted life year (DALY). Age weight, where a year of healthy life lived at one age is valued differently from at another age, is the most controversial value built into the DALY. The discount rate, which addresses the difference in value of current versus future health benefits, also has been criticized. The distribution of the global disease burden and rankings of various conditions are largely insensitive to alternate assumptions about the discount rate and age weighting. The major effects of discounting and age weighting are to enhance the importance of neuropsychiatric conditions and sexually transmitted infections. The Global Burden of Disease study also has been criticized for estimating mortality and disease burden for regions using incomplete and uncertain data. Including uncertain results, with uncertainty quantified to the extent possible, is preferable, however, to leaving blank cells in tables intended to provide policy makers with an overall assessment of burden of disease. No estimate is generally interpreted as no problem. Greater investment in getting the descriptive epidemiology of diseases and injuries correct in poor countries will do vastly more to reduce uncertainty in disease burden assessments than a philosophical debate about the appropriateness of social value

Human settlements: Australia state of the environment report, 2001

Australia’s transition to the 21st century has been marked by an extended period of economic prosperity unmatched for several decades, but one in which a series of question marks are being raised in three principal areas: in relation to the environment, the social well-being of the population, and the future path of economic development. The first concern, which is of primary interest in this report, relates to the physical environment of cities and their surrounding regions, and the range of pressures exerted by population and human activity. The report begins by noting the increasing divergence of the prime indicator of national economic performance—gross domestic product (GDP)—from the Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI). GPI is a new experimental measure of sustainable development that accommodates factors currently unaccounted for in GDP, such as income distribution, value of household work, cost of unemployment, and various other social and environmental costs. The divergence of these two indicators in recent decades suggests that Australia’s growth has been heavily dependent on the draw-down of the nation’s stocks of capital assets (its infrastructure), its human and social capital, and its natural capital (Hamilton 1997).

Recreational fishing: Its expansion, its economic value and aquaculture's role in sustaining it

Economic growth usually leads to a substantial increase in the demand for recreational fishing, and China is likely to follow this trend. Factors influencing this expansion in demand are identified. Recreational fishing is of major economic importance in higher income countries and indicators of its economic significance are given. Growing demand for recreational fishing results in intensified involvement of recreational fishers in conflicts about resource use. With increasing demand for recreational fishing, recreational fishers face growing competition with one another for limited fish stocks and with commercial fishers. Their concerns for environmental threats to fish stocks also intensify. Furthermore, some strategies of recreational fishers are increasingly criticised by conservationists. Governments, therefore, are put under pressure to adopt policies to address these conflicts. Some of the policy measures adopted to help sustain the fisheries and reduce conflict are outlined. These include limits on the catch and exclusive zones for recreational fishing. However, wild stocks of fish are likely to remain under mounting harvesting and other pressures. Therefore, we need to consider the role that aquaculture can play in overcoming these problems. The possible ways in which aquaculture can do this are outlined and discussed.

Estimating Income Inequality in China Using Grouped Data and the Generalized Beta Distribution

There are two main types of data sources of income distributions in China: household survey data and grouped data. Household survey data are typically available for isolated years and individual provinces. In comparison, aggregate or grouped data are typically available more frequently and usually have national coverage. In principle, grouped data allow investigation of the change of inequality over longer, continuous periods of time, and the identification of patterns of inequality across broader regions. Nevertheless, a major limitation of grouped data is that only mean (average) income and income shares of quintile or decile groups of the population are reported. Directly using grouped data reported in this format is equivalent to assuming that all individuals in a quintile or decile group have the same income. This potentially distorts the estimate of inequality within each region. The aim of this paper is to apply an improved econometric method designed to use grouped data to study income inequality in China. A generalized beta distribution is employed to model income inequality in China at various levels and periods of time. The generalized beta distribution is more general and flexible than the lognormal distribution that has been used in past research, and also relaxes the assumption of a uniform distribution of income within quintile and decile groups of populations. The paper studies the nature and extent of inequality in rural and urban China over the period 1978 to 2002. Income inequality in the whole of China is then modeled using a mixture of province-specific distributions. The estimated results are used to study the trends in national inequality, and to discuss the empirical findings in the light of economic reforms, regional policies, and globalization of the Chinese economy.

Precursor scavenging of the resistive grain-boundary phase in 8 mol% yttria-stabilized zirconia: Effect of trace concentrations of SiO2

The influence that trace concentrations Of SiO2 have on improving grain-boundary conduction via precursor scavenging using additional heat treatment at 1200 degreesC for 40 h before sintering was investigated. At a SiO2-impurity level (SIL) less than or equal to 160 ppm by weight, the grain-boundary resistivity (p(gb)) decreased to 20% of its value, while no improvement in grain-boundary conduction was found at a SIL greater than or equal to 310 ppm. The correlation between the resistance per unit grain-boundary area, p(gb), and average grain size indicated that the inhomogeneous distribution of the siliceous phase in the sample with a SIL greater than or equal to 310 ppm. hampered the scavenging reaction.