A Comparison of Bayesian and Sampling Theory Inferences in a Probit Model

HE PROBIT MODEL IS A POPULAR DEVICE for explaining binary choice decisions in econometrics. It has been used to describe choices such as labor force participation, travel mode, home ownership, and type of education. These and many more examples can be found in papers by Amemiya (1981) and Maddala (1983). Given the contribution of economics towards explaining such choices, and given the nature of data that are collected, prior information on the relationship between a choice probability and several explanatory variables frequently exists. Bayesian inference is a convenient vehicle for including such prior information. Given the increasing popularity of Bayesian inference it is useful to ask whether inferences from a probit model are sensitive to a choice between Bayesian and sampling theory techniques. Of interest is the sensitivity of inference on coefficients, probabilities, and elasticities. We consider these issues in a model designed to explain choice between fixed and variable interest rate mortgages. Two Bayesian priors are employed: a uniform prior on the coefficients, designed to be noninformative for the coefficients, and an inequality restricted prior on the signs of the coefficients. We often know, a priori, whether increasing the value of a particular explanatory variable will have a positive or negative effect on a choice probability. This knowledge can be captured by using a prior probability density function (pdf) that is truncated to be positive or negative. Thus, three sets of results are compared:those from maximum likelihood (ML) estimation, those from Bayesian estimation with an unrestricted uniform prior on the coefficients, and those from Bayesian estimation with a uniform prior truncated to accommodate inequality restrictions on the coefficients.

Commercialisation of agriculture in Kenya: Case study of urban bias on food availability in farm households

This study investigates the effect of cash cropping on food availability and examines the determinants of the proportion of income allocated for food expenditures in the Nyeri district in Kenya. Using a Tobit model, the results suggest that in general food expenditure allocations suffer due to cash cropping in Kenya as the lump-sum income flows from this may be used for purchases other than food. Food expenditure also suffers when remittances are irregular. On the other hand, earnings from outside employment for married women living with husbands are positively associated with food expenditure allocations. Amounts of non-cash food output as well as ownership of livestock are negatively associated with food expenditure allocations. These findings indicate that lump sum income may not lead to improved welfare of women and children. Thus, there may be social reasons for increasing non-cash food production especially by women, instead of over emphasizing cash cropping as now seems to be so in public policy.

Gender inequality, poverty and human development in Kenya: Main indicators, trends and limitations

Indicators of gender inequality, poverty and human development in Kenya are examined. Significant and rising incidence of absolute poverty occurs in Kenya and women are more likely to be in poverty than men. Female/male ratios in Kenyan decision-making institutions are highly skewed against women and they experience unfavourable enrolment ratios in primary, secondary and tertiary institutions. The share of income earned by women is much lower than men's share. General Kenyan indicators highlight declining GDP per capita, increased poverty rates especially for women, reduced life expectancy, a narrowing of the difference in female/male life expectancy rates, increased child mortality rates and an increase in the female child mortality rates. This deterioration results in an increased socio-economic burden on women, not adequately captured in the HPI, HDI, GDI and GEM. This paper advocates the use of household level gender disaggregated data because much gender inequality occurs in and emanates from the household level where culture plays a very important role in allocation of resources and decision-making. Because most human development indicators are aggregates or averages, they can be misleading. They need to be supplemented by distributional and disaggregated data as demonstrated in the Kenyan case. The importance is emphasised of studying coping mechanisms of household/families for dealing with economic hardship and other misfortunes, such AIDS.

Phylogeny of the filamentous bacterium 'Nostocoida limicola' III from activated sludge

Five strains of the filamentous bacterium 'Nostocoida limicola' III were successfully isolated into pure culture from samples of activated sludge biomass from five plants in Australia. 16S rRNA gene sequence analyses showed that all isolates were members of the Planctomycetales, most closely related to Isosphaera pallida, but they differed phenotypically from this species in that they did not glide and were not thermotolerant. The ultrastructure of these 'N. limicola' III isolates was also consistent with them being Planctomycetales, in that they possessed complex intracellular membrane systems compartmentalizing the cells. However, the arrangements of these intracellular membranes differed between isolates. These data confirm that 'N. limicola' III is phylogenetically unrelated to both 'N. limicola' I and 'N. limicola' II, activated sludge filamentous bacteria which share morphological features in common with 'N. limicola' III and which have been presumed historically to be the same or very similar bacteria.

Causal and localizable quantum operations

We examine constraints on quantum operations imposed by relativistic causality. A bipartite superoperator is said to be localizable if it can be implemented by two parties (Alice and Bob) who share entanglement but do not communicate, it is causal if the superoperator does not convey information from Alice to Bob or from Bob to Alice. We characterize the general structure of causal complete-measurement superoperators, and exhibit examples that are causal but not localizable. We construct another class of causal bipartite superoperators that are not localizable by invoking bounds on the strength of correlations among the parts of a quantum system. A bipartite superoperator is said to be semilocalizable if it can be implemented with one-way quantum communication from Alice to Bob, and it is semicausal if it conveys no information from Bob to Alice. We show that all semicausal complete-measurement superoperators are semi localizable, and we establish a general criterion for semicausality. In the multipartite case, we observe that a measurement superoperator that projects onto the eigenspaces of a stabilizer code is localizable.

Work-related stress and occupational therapy

Occupational stress and burnout have been studied extensively in the human services. It has been suggested that healthcare professionals in particular are at risk of stress owing to the caring nature of their work. Articles related to occupational therapy and work-related stress were reviewed in regard to practice in Australia, Canada, the United Kingdom, the United States and Sweden. Although the empirical literature is relatively weak for occupational therapy, it has been argued that occupational therapists in health care share risk factors with other healthcare professionals. These risk factors include repeated exposure to distress and difficult behaviour, prolonged interventions and uncertain outcome. Issues such as professional status, staffing issues and the nature of the profession have been identified as additional risk factors for occupational therapists. However, empirical studies that enable burnout rates of occupational therapists to be compared with those of related occupational groups suggest that this may not be the case. Occupational therapists may in fact be protected from some stress and burnout factors. Further research is recommended to clarify the nature of stress experienced by occupational therapists and to identify both risk and protective factors characteristic of the profession. Copyright © 2001 Whurr Publishers Ltd.

Discovery and structure of a potent and highly specific blockerof insect calcium channels

We have isolated a novel family of insect-selective neurotoxins that appear to be the most potent blockers of insect voltage-gated calcium channels reported to date. These toxins display exceptional phylogenetic specificity, with at least a 10,000-fold preference for insect versus vertebrate calcium channels. The structure of one of the toxins reveals a highly structured, disulfide-rich core and a structurally disordered C-terminal extension that is essential for channel blocking activity. Weak structural/functional homology with omega -agatoxin-IVA/B, the prototypic inhibitor of vertebrate P-type calcium channels, suggests that these two toxin families might share a similar mechanism of action despite their vastly different phylogenetic specificities.

A survey of Australian consumers' attitudes towards UHT milk

A telephone survey was conducted in Melbourne and Brisbane to obtain a profile of milk consumption in Australia and determine consumers' attitudes regarding UHT milk. It was anticipated that this survey would reveal the reasons for the low level of UHT milk consumption in Australia. Pasteurised milk was the main milk type used by more than 80% of respondents. For UHT milk this figure was much lower (approximately 10%), even though two thirds of respondents had tried UHT milk. Factors that were found to influence UHT milk consumption included existing milk consumption habits, consumer perception, flavour and price. The majority of non-users of UHT milk stated habit of using other milk type as their main reason for not using UHT milk. Other reasons included poor nutritional value, poor flavour and not real/pure milk, indicating a negative consumer perception of the product. The flavour of UHT milk was identified as a problem, with nearly half of UHT milk users considering it to be worse than the flavour of pasteurised milk. However, a small proportion of UHT milk users preferred the flavour of UHT milk, with the majority of them stating that it was creamier, richer and/or stronger than the flavour of pasteurised milk. Prior to post-farmgate deregulation, price was shown to discourage consumers from using UHT milk. At the time of the survey, post-farmgate prices in Victoria were deregulated resulting in UHT milk being priced below that of pasteurised milk in some instances. This was believed to contribute to a significantly higher market share of the product in Melbourne than in Brisbane.