91 resultados para marginal likelihood


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A methodology, based on a combination of routinely performed analyses and investigation of fundamental charge and anion sorption properties, was used to characterize the soils of the humid forest zone of Cameroon, In general, the soils have about 2 cmol kg(-1) permanent negative charge, with about 1 cmol kg(-1) from variable-charge sources at current soil pH values, Furthermore, they are impoverished with respect to Ca, Mg, and K, while Al frequently dominates the exchange complex. Thus, the ability of these soils to retain base cations is more limited than is suggested by the cation-exchange capacity (CEC), Therefore we propose the concept of a degradation index (DI) defined as: DI = 100(CEC5.5 - sum of basic cations)/CEC5.5, where CEC5.5 is the CEC measured at pH 5.5, This index encompasses degradation a soil may have experienced from natural or man-made causes, Extractable PO4 concentrations are considered very low and the soils have a moderate to high capacity to fix added PO4. Surface soil SO4 concentrations are considered marginal to deficient for plant growth, though adequate reserves of SO4 are held in the subsoil by SO4 sorption, The approach used demonstrated that the five morphologically different soil profile classes identified in the zone have similar chemical characteristics. Thus, the results of experimentation conducted on one of the soil profile classes will be applicable throughout the zone, Furthermore, the approach has provided a means of identifying comparable soil types in other parts of the world and will guide technology transfer, The analytical methods used in this study are relatively simple and require no specialized equipment, and are therefore within the capabilities of many laboratories in the developing world.

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HE PROBIT MODEL IS A POPULAR DEVICE for explaining binary choice decisions in econometrics. It has been used to describe choices such as labor force participation, travel mode, home ownership, and type of education. These and many more examples can be found in papers by Amemiya (1981) and Maddala (1983). Given the contribution of economics towards explaining such choices, and given the nature of data that are collected, prior information on the relationship between a choice probability and several explanatory variables frequently exists. Bayesian inference is a convenient vehicle for including such prior information. Given the increasing popularity of Bayesian inference it is useful to ask whether inferences from a probit model are sensitive to a choice between Bayesian and sampling theory techniques. Of interest is the sensitivity of inference on coefficients, probabilities, and elasticities. We consider these issues in a model designed to explain choice between fixed and variable interest rate mortgages. Two Bayesian priors are employed: a uniform prior on the coefficients, designed to be noninformative for the coefficients, and an inequality restricted prior on the signs of the coefficients. We often know, a priori, whether increasing the value of a particular explanatory variable will have a positive or negative effect on a choice probability. This knowledge can be captured by using a prior probability density function (pdf) that is truncated to be positive or negative. Thus, three sets of results are compared:those from maximum likelihood (ML) estimation, those from Bayesian estimation with an unrestricted uniform prior on the coefficients, and those from Bayesian estimation with a uniform prior truncated to accommodate inequality restrictions on the coefficients.

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This paper presents an application of the contingent valuation method (CVM) to determine how the willingness to pay (WTP) for conservation of Asian elephants varies with hypothetical variations in their population. Results from a CVM survey of a sample of urban residents in Colombo, the capital of Sri Lanka are used for this purpose. We find, consistent with the basic principles of consumer demand theory, the marginal change in the respondents’ WTP amounts is positive but appears to diminish in parallel to the increases in the current wild elephant population (CWEP). In contrast to theoretical expectations, however, we find that the WTP for preserving this species increases at an increasing rate in relation to decreases in the CWEP. This is probably because respondents perceive that extinction becomes more imminent as the abundance of the elephant is reduced and therefore it becomes more urgent to act. However, this adds a new complication to the interpretation of the WTP findings.

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The following are notes that have been distributed by me over the last few years to students in Environmental Economics at The University of Queensland. They give particular attention to whether externalities are Pareto or Kaldor-Hicks relevant from a policy point of view. Externalities are Kaldor-Hicks or Pareto irrelevant if no change is possible for which gainers could compensate losers. Both absolute and marginal externalities may be Kaldor-Hicks relevant. Infra-marginal negative externalities are often, but not always, Kaldor-Hicks irrelevant. There are at least two cases where such externalities can be relevant. First, the absolute impact of the negative externality may be so great that the source of the externality should be eliminated. Secondly, if the externality arises from production, its nature may depend on the type of production technique adopted. Although for the technique adopted, an infra-marginal negative externality occurs. That is Paretian irrelevant given that choice of this technique is the only available possibility, alternative techniques may actually be available in practice. Some of these may generate even smaller total external effects and be socially preferable. Both cases are outlined and illustrated in these notes. The analysis reveals the dangers of relying on marginalism for deciding on environmental policy. Total (external) effects are often of great social and economic importance and appropriate social choices cannot be made on the basis of marginalism alone.

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After outlining some comparative features of poverty in India, this article reviews critically recent literature on the dynamics of poverty. On economic efficiency grounds, it rejects the view that the chronically poor are more deserving than the non-chronic poor of poverty assistance. Mechanisms of households and communities for coping with poverty are discussed. The possibility is raised that where poverty has been persistent that rational methods for coping with it are likely to be well established, and less suffering may occur than for households and communities thrown temporarily into poverty. However, situations can also be envisaged where such rational behaviours deepen the poverty trap and create unfavourable externalities for poverty alleviation. Conflict can arise between programmes to alleviate poverty in poor communities and the sustainability of these communities and their local cultures. Problems posed by this are discussed. Furthermore, the impact of market extension on poor landholders is considered. In contrast to the prevailing view that increased market extension and liberalisation is favourable to poor farmers, it is argued that inescapable market transaction cost makes it difficult for the poor to survive as landholders in a fluid and changing market system. The likelihood of poor landholders joining the landless poor rises, and if they migrate from the countryside to the city they face further adjustment hurdles. Consequently, poor landholders may be poorer after the extension of the market system and only their offspring may reap benefits from market reforms.

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A mixture model incorporating long-term survivors has been adopted in the field of biostatistics where some individuals may never experience the failure event under study. The surviving fractions may be considered as cured. In most applications, the survival times are assumed to be independent. However, when the survival data are obtained from a multi-centre clinical trial, it is conceived that the environ mental conditions and facilities shared within clinic affects the proportion cured as well as the failure risk for the uncured individuals. It necessitates a long-term survivor mixture model with random effects. In this paper, the long-term survivor mixture model is extended for the analysis of multivariate failure time data using the generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) approach. The proposed model is applied to analyse a numerical data set from a multi-centre clinical trial of carcinoma as an illustration. Some simulation experiments are performed to assess the applicability of the model based on the average biases of the estimates formed. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Trypanosome infections are often difficult to detect by conventional microscopy and their pleomorphy often confounds differential diagnosis. Molecular techniques are now being used to diagnose infections and to determine phylogenetic relationships between species. Complete small subunit rRNA gene sequences were determined for isolates of Trypanosoma chelodina from the Brisbane River tortoise (Emydura signata), the saw-shelled tortoise (Elseya latisternum), and the eastern snake-necked tortoise (Chelodina longicollis) from southeast Queensland, Australia. Partial sequence data were also obtained for T. binneyi from a platypus (Ornithorhynchus anatinus) from Tasmania. Phylogenetic relationships between T. chelodina, T. binneyi and other species were examined by maximum parsimony and likelihood methods. The Australian tortoise and platypus trypanosomes did not exhibit any close phylogenetic relationships with those of mammals, reptiles or amphibians, but were closely related to each other, and to fish trypanosomes. This contra-indicates their co-evolution with their vertebrate hosts but does not exclude co-evolution with different groups of invertebrate vectors, notably insects and leeches.

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Using the classical twin design, this study investigates the influence of genetic factors on the large phenotypic variance in inspection time (IT), and whether the well established IT-IQ association can be explained by a common genetic factor. Three hundred ninety pairs of twins (184 monozygotic, MZ; 206 dizygotic, DZ) with a mean age of 16 years participated, and 49 pairs returned approximately 3 months, later for retesting. As in many IT studies, the pi figure stimulus was used and IT was estimated from the cumulative normal ogive. IT ranged from 39.4 to 774.1 ms (159 +/- 110.1 ms) with faster ITs (by an average of 26.9 ms) found in the retest session from which a reliability of .69 was estimated. Full-scale IQ (FIQ) was assessed by the Multidimensional Aptitude Battery (MAB) and ranged from 79 to 145 (111 +/- 13). The phenotypic association between IT and FIQ was confirmed (- .35) and bivariate results showed that a common genetic factor accounted for 36% of the variance in IT and 32% of the variance in FIQ. The maximum likelihood estimate of the genetic correlation was - .63. When performance and verbal IQ (PIQ & VIQ) were analysed with IT, a stronger phenotypic and genetic relationship was found between PIQ and IT than with VIQ. A large part of the IT variance (64%) was accounted for by a unique environmental factor. Further genetic factors were needed to explain the remaining variance in IQ with a small component of unique environmental variance present. The separability of a shared genetic factor influencing IT and IQ from the total genetic variance in IQ suggests that IT affects a specific subcomponent of intelligence rather than a generalised efficiency. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.

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Questionnaire surveys, while more economical, typically achieve poorer response rates than interview surveys. We used data from a national volunteer cohort of young adult twins, who were scheduled for assessment by questionnaire in 1989 and by interview in 1996-2000, to identify predictors of questionnaire non-response. Out of a total of 8536 twins, 5058 completed the questionnaire survey (59% response rate), and 6255 completed a telephone interview survey conducted a decade later (73% response rate). Multinomial logit models were fitted to the interview data to identify socioeconomic, psychiatric and health behavior correlates of non-response in the earlier questionnaire survey. Male gender, education below University level, and being a dizygotic rather than monozygotic twin, all predicted reduced likelihood of participating in the questionnaire survey. Associations between questionnaire response status and psychiatric history and health behavior variables were modest, with history of alcohol dependence and childhood conduct disorder predicting decreased probability of returning a questionnaire, and history of smoking and heavy drinking more weakly associated with non-response. Body-mass index showed no association with questionnaire non-response. Despite a poor response rate to the self-report questionnaire survey, we found only limited sampling biases for most variables. While not appropriate for studies where socioeconomic variables are critical, it appears that survey by questionnaire, with questionnaire administration by telephone to non-responders, will represent a viable strategy for gene-mapping studies requiring that large numbers of relatives be screened.

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Cape Roberts Project drill core 3 (CRP-3) was obtained from Roberts ridge, a sea-floor high located at 77°S, 12 km offshore from Cape Roberts in western McMurdo Sound, Antarctica. The recovered core is about 939 m long and comprises strata dated as being early Oligocene (possibly latest Eocene) in age, resting unconformably on ∼ 116 m of basement rocks consisting of Palaeozoic Beacon Supergroup sediments. The core includes ten facies commonly occuring in five major associations that are repeated in particular sequences throughout the core and which are interpreted as representing different depositional environments through time. Depositional systems inferred to be represented in the succession include: outer shelf, inner shelf, nearshore to shoreface each under iceberg influence, deltaic and/or grounding-line fan, and ice proximal-ice marginal-subglacial (mass flow/rainout diamictite/subglacial till) singly or in combination. The record is taken to represent the initial talus/alluvial fan setting of a glaciated rift margin adjacent to the block-uplifted Transantarctic Mountains. Development of a deltaic succession upcore was probably associated with the formation of palaeo-Mackay valley with temperate glaciers in its headwaters. At that stage glaciation was intense enough to support glaciers ending in the sea elsewhere along the coast, but a local glacier was fluctuating down to the sea by the time the youngest part of CRP-3 was being deposited. Changes in palaeoenvironmental interpretations in this youngest part of the core are used to estimate relative glacial proximity to the drillsite through time. These inferred glacial fluctuations are compared with the global δ18O and Mg/Ca curves to evaluate the potential of glacial fluctuations on Antarctica for influencing these records of global change. Although the comparisons are tentative at present, the records do have similarities, but there are also some differences that require further evaluation.

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Benedenia Diesing, 1858, a genus of capsalid (benedeniine) monogeneans, is redefined. The generic diagnosis is amended to include: the path of tendons in the haptor from extrinsic muscles in the body; presence and form of the marginal valve; a penis occupying a penis canal with weakly muscular wall; a weakly muscular accessory gland reservoir proximal to the penis and enclosed by a proximal extension of the wall of the penis canal; male and female genital apertures usually common, rarely separate; vagina with pore usually close to the common genital pore but may open in mid body between the germarium and the common genital pore, or anterior to the common genital pore. A conservative approach is adopted and the generic diagnosis is clarified and broadened to accommodate species that display some variation in reproductive anatomy, especially of the female system. We argue against potential alternative actions such as defining Benedenia strictly to contain species with separate male and female genital apertures and against recognition of a separate genus, Tareenia Hussey, 1986, for species with a vaginal pore anterior to the common genital pore. Under our conception, Benedenia comprises 21 species: B. sciaenae (van Beneden, 1856) Odhner, 1905 (type species); B. acanthopagri (Hussey, 1986) comb. nov.; B. anticavaginata Byrnes, 1986; B. bodiani Yamaguti, 1968; B. elongata (Yamaguti, 1968) Egorova, 1997; B. epinepheli (Yamaguti, 1937) Meserve, 1938; B. hawaiiensis Yamaguti, 1968; B. hendorffi(von Linstow, 1889) Odhner, 1905; B. hoshinai Ogawa, 1984; B. innobilitata Burhnheim Gomes and Varela, 1973: B. jaliscana Bravo-Hollis, 1952; B. lolo Yamaguti, 1968; B. lutjani Whittington and Kearn, 1993: B. monticellii (Parona and Perugia, 1895) Johnston, 1929; B. ovata (Goto, 1894) Johnston. 1929: B. pompatica Burhnheim, Gomes and Varela, 1973; B. rohdei Whittington, Kearn and Beverley-Burton, 1994; B. scari Yamaguti, 1968; B. sekii (Yamaguti, 1937) Meserve, 1938; B, seriolae (Yamaguti, 1934) Meserve, 1938; and B. synagris Yamaguti, 1953. The type species, B. sciaenae, is redescribed based on new material from Australia. No types for this taxon were designated and we have assigned a series of voucher specimens. Tareenia acanthopagri Hussey, 1986 becomes B. acanthopagri (Hussey, 1986) comb. nov. and T. anticavaginata (Byrnes, 1986) Egorova, 1997 and T. lutjani (Whittington and Kearn, 1993) Egorova, 1997 are returned to Benedenia as B. anticavaginata and B. lutjani Benedenia akaisaki Iwata, 1990 is considered a synonym of B. ovata and B. kintoki Iwata, 1990 is considered a synonym of B. elongata. Two species, B, madai Ishii and Sawada, 1938 and B. pagrosomi Ishii and Sawada, 1938, are considered species inquirendae. Based on the redefinition of Benedenia, the diagnosis for the Benedeniinae is amended. Tareenia is synonymized with Benedenia but Menziesia Gibson, 1976 is recognized and its generic diagnosis amended to include: anterior attachment organs tending to form a 'hooded' appearance; prominent anterior gland cells between the pharynx and the anterior margin of the body: long penis, tapering proximally, occupying a penis canal with weakly muscular wall: penis canal and penis describe a sigmoid; accessory gland reservoir dorsal and alongside, or posterior and lateral to, proximal end of the penis and enclosed by a proximal extension of the wall of the penis canal. Under this conception. Menziesia comprises: M. noblei (Menzies. 1946) Gibson, 1976 (type species); M. malaboni (Velasquez. 1982) comb. nov.: M. merinthe (Yamaguti, 1968) Gibson. 1976: M. ovalis (Yamaguti, 1968) Gibson, 1976: and M. sebastodis (Yamaguti, 1934) comb, nov. A key to valid species of Benedenia and Menziesia is provided and a list is presented of published records of undescribed or unattributed species of Benedenia. Some protocols are suggested for preparation of benedeniine material to enhance future taxonomic studies and comparisons. The host-specificity and geographic distribution of species in these revised genera are discussed. The composition of the Capsalidae is discussed and some difficulties in defining and distinguishing between its different subfamilies are considered.

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The current classification of the Monocotylidae (Monogenea) is based on a phylogeny generated from morphological characters. The present study tests the morphological phylogenetic hypothesis using molecular methods. Sequences from domains C2 and D1 and the partial domains C1 and D2 from the 28S rDNA gene for 26 species of monocotylids from six of the seven subfamilies were used. Trees were generated using maximum parsimony, neighbour joining and maximum likelihood algorithms. The maximum parsimony tree, with branches showing less than 70% bootstrap support collapsed, had a topology identical to that obtained using the maximum likelihood analysis. The neighbour joining tree, with branches showing less than 70% support collapsed. differed only in its placement of Heterocotyle capricornensis as the sister group to the Decacotylinae clade. The molecular tree largely supports the subfamilies established using morphological characters. Differences are primarily how the subfamilies are related to each other. The monophyly of the Calicotylinae and Merizocotylinae and their sister group relationship is supported by high bootstrap values in all three methods, but relationships within the Merizocotylinae are unclear. Merizocotyle is paraphyletic and our data suggest that Mycteronastes and Thaumatocotyle, which were synonymized with Merizocotyle after the morphological cladistic analysis, should perhaps be resurrected as valid genera. The monophyly of the Monocotylinae and Decacotylinae is also supported by high bootstrap values. The Decacotylinae, which was considered previously to be the sister group to the Calicotylinae plus Merizocotylinae, is grouped in an unresolved polychotomy with the Monocotylinae and members of the Heterocotylinae. According to our molecular data, the Heterocotylinae is paraphyletic. Molecular data support a sister group relationship between Troglocephalus rhinobatidis and Neoheterocotyle rhinobatidis to the exclusion of the other species of Neoheterocotyle and recognition of Troglocephalus renders Neoheterocotyle,le paraphyletic. We propose Troglocephalus incertae sedis. An updated classification and full species list of the Monocotylidae is provided. (C) 2001 Australian Society for Parasitology Inc. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Acanthoplacatus gen. nov., a new genus of viviparous gyrodactylid, is described from the rns and skin of siganid fishes from the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. The genus is characterized by a muscular, tube-like haptor with 16 marginal hooks on the posterior margin. The ventral lobe of the haptor is located anteriorly relative to the dorsal lobe and contains a pair of hamuli and a ventral bar with posteriorly-projecting ventral bar membrane. A dorsal bar is absent. Five pairs of posterior gland cells surround the posterior terminations of the gut. The male copulatory organ is a muscular, non-eversible bulb with several spines around the distal opening. Species of Acanthoplacatus have a bilateral excretory system consisting of six pairs of flame cells and a pair of excretory bladders. Seven new species are described: Acanthoplacatus adlardi sp. nov. and A. amplihamus sp. nov. from Siganus punctatus (Forster, 1801), A. brauni sp. nov. from S. corallinus (Valenciennes, 1835), A. parvihamus sp. nov. from S. vulpinus (Schlegel and Mueller, 1845), A. puelli sp. nov. from S. puellus Schlegel, 1852, A. shieldsi sp. nov. from S. lineatus (Valenciennes, 1835) and A. sigani sp. nov. from S. fuscescens (Houttuyn, 1782). Species can be discriminated by shape and size of the hamuli, marginal hooks and ventral bar and by male copulatory organ sclerite morphology. Three species (A. brauni sp. nov., A. shieldsi sp. nov. and A. sigani sp. nov.) were assessed for seasonal variation of sclerite size. Ten of thirteen morphological characters showed seasonal variation in size for at least one of the species. The characters were longer in winter except dorsal root tissue cap width. Only one character, marginal hook length, showed significant seasonal variation for all three species. Species of Acanthoplacatus were observed to attach using only the marginal hooks and the role of hamuli in attachment is unclear. The dorsal rn of the host is the preferred site for most species but the anal fin, caudal fin and body surfaces are preferred by some species. Prevalences for species range from 57 to 100%.

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Objective: premature infants are at increased risk of developmental disability. Early identification of problems allows intervention to ameliorate or attenuate problems. A reliable screening tool allows triage of children in this high-risk population by identifying those unlikely to need full developmental assessment. To explore the test characteristics of an established parent-completed developmental assessment questionnaire 'Ages and Stages Questionnaire' (ASQ) in follow up of an Australian population of premature infants. Methodology: One hundred and sixty-seven children born prematurely with corrected ages 12- to 48-months attending the Growth and Development Clinic at the Mater Children's Hospital in Brisbane, Queensland, Australia; 136 questionnaires 'ASQ' were returned completed (81%) and were compared to formal psychometric assessment (Griffith Mental Development Scales for 12- and 24-months, Bayley Mental Development Intelligence Scale for 18-months, McCarthy General Cognitive Intelligence Scale for 18-months). Developmental delay was considered to be present if any of the above psychometric assessments fell below 1.0 standard deviations (SD). The ASQ cut-off used was 2.0 SD (US data derived means and SD). Results: Aggregate results for all age groups comparing ASQ to psychometric assessments as 'gold standards' found the ASQ to have the following test characteristics: sensitivity (90%); specificity (77%); positive predictive value (40%); negative predictive value (98%): % over-referred (20%); % under-referred (1%); % agreement (79%). likelihood ratio for children failing the ASQ was 3.8 and for passing the ASQ was 0.13. Twenty-one children with known disabilities were included in the study and in 14 of these, the ASQ overall score agreed with the psychometric assessment (67%). Conclusion: The high negative predictive value of the ASQ supports its use as a screening tool for cognitive and motor delays in the follow up of ex-premature infants. This would need to be combined with other strategies as part of a comprehensive follow up program for ex-premature infants.