Continuity of care and readmission in two service systems: a comparative Victorian and Groningen case-register study

Objective: We compared service consumption, continuity of care and risk of readmission in a record linkage follow-up study of cohorts of patients with schizophrenia and related disorders in Victoria (Australia) and in Groningen (The Netherlands). These areas are interesting to compare because mental health care is in a different stage of deiustitutionalization. More beds are available in Groningen and more community resources are available in Victoria. Method: The cohorts were followed for 4 years, since discharge from inpatient services using record linkage data available in the psychiatric case-registers in both areas. Survival analysis was used to study continuity of care and risk of readmission. Results: Available indicators showed a higher level of continuity of care in Victoria. While the relative risk of readmission was the same in both areas and not affected by aftercare contact after discharge, the number of days spent in hospital was much higher in the Groningen register area. Conclusion: These findings provide further support for earlier reports that the risk of readmission is predominantly affected by attributes of mental illness. However, the duration of admissions, is strongly affected by service system variables, including the provision of continuity of care.

A method of analysing stream channel response to environmental change: gauge data for the Tully River

Gauging data are available from numerous streams throughout Australia, and these data provide a basis for historical analysis of geomorphic change in stream channels in response to both natural phenomena and human activities. We present a simple method for analysis of these data, and a briefcase study of an application to channel change in the Tully River, in the humid tropics of north Queensland. The analysis suggests that this channel has narrowed and deepened, rather than aggraded: channel aggradation was expected, given the intensification of land use in the catchment, upstream of the gauging station. Limitations of the method relate to the time periods over which stream gauging occurred; the spatial patterns of stream gauging sites; the quality and consistency of data collection; and the availability of concurrent land-use histories on which to base the interpretation of the channel changes.

Ameloblast apoptosis and IGF-1 receptor expression in the continuously erupting rat incisor model

Enamel-producing cells (ameloblasts) pass through several phenotypic and functional stages during enamel formation. In the transition between secretory and maturation stages, about one quarter of the ameloblasts suddenly undergo apoptosis. We have studied this phenomenon using the continuously erupting rat incisor model. A special feature of this model is that all stages of ameloblast differentiation are presented within a single longitudinal section of the developing tooth. This permits investigation of the temporal sequence of gene and growth factor receptor expression during ameloblast differentiation and apoptosis. We describe the light and electron microscopic morphology of ameloblast apoptosis and the pattern of insulin-like growth factor-1 receptor expression by ameloblasts in the continuously erupting rat incisor model. In the developing rat incisor, ameloblast apoptosis is associated with downregulated expression of the insulin-like growth factor-1 receptor. These data are consistent with the hypothesis that ameloblasts are hard wired for apoptosis and that insulin-like growth factor-1 receptor expression is required to block the default apoptotic pathway. Possible mechanisms of insulin-like growth factor-1 inhibition of ameloblast apoptosis are presented. The rat incisor model may be useful in studies of physiological apoptosis as it presents apoptosis in a predictable pattern in adult tissues.

Knowledge discovery and data mining in biological databases

The new technologies for Knowledge Discovery from Databases (KDD) and data mining promise to bring new insights into a voluminous growing amount of biological data. KDD technology is complementary to laboratory experimentation and helps speed up biological research. This article contains an introduction to KDD, a review of data mining tools, and their biological applications. We discuss the domain concepts related to biological data and databases, as well as current KDD and data mining developments in biology.

Gender and age-at-first-admission for schizophrenia: Data from Australia and Brazil

In order to examine whether different populations show the same pattern of onset in the Southern Hemisphere, we examined the age-at-first-admission distribution for schizophrenia based on mental health registers from Australia and Brazil. Data on age-at-first-admission for individuals with schizophrenia were extracted from two names-linked registers, (1) the Queensland Mental Health Statistics System, Australia (N=7651, F= 3293, M=4358), and (2) a psychiatric hospital register in Pelotas, Brazil (N=4428, F=2220, M=2208). Age distributions were derived for males and females for both datasets. The general population structure tbr both countries was also obtained. There were significantly more males in the Queensland dataset (gz = 56.9, df3, p < 0.0001 ). Both dataset distributions were skewed to the right. Onset rose steeply after puberty to reach a modal age group of 20-29 for men and women, with a more gradual tail toward the older age groups. In Queensland 68% of women with schizophrenia had their first admissions after age 30, while the proportion from Brazil was 58%. Compared to the Australian dataset, the Brazilian dataset had a slightly greater proportion of first admissions under the age 30 and a slightly smaller proportion over the age of 60 years. This reflects the underlying age distributions of the two populations. This study confirms the wide age range and gender differences in age-at-first-admission distributions for schizophrenia and identified a significant difference in the gender ratio between the two datasets. Given widely differing health services, cultural practices, ethic variability, and the different underlying population distributions, the age-at-first-admission in Queensland and Brazil showed more similarities than differences. Acknowledgments: The Stanley Foundation supported this project.

Is there change over time in the season-of-birth effect for schizophrenia? Data from the southern hemisphere

The aim of this paper is to examine distributions of schizophrenia and general population births over time in order to determine whether (a) the pattern has changed over time, (b) any pattern was similar for both males and females, and (c) whether there is any indication that there is any relationship between the changes in pattern between schizophrenia and general population births. Birth month and year for 7807 individuals with ICD8/9 schizophrenia were gained from the Queensland Mental Health Statistical System for 1914-1975. Monthly births for the general population in Queensland for the same period were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. For each decade we obtained two comparisons, (1) between two 'seasons' (summer-autumn/winter-spring), and (2) between the third (coldest) quarter and the remaining quarters. Based on expected contrasts from general population proportions, odds ratios and their confidence intervals were used to analyse these comparisons for all subjects, and for males and females separately. The seasonality found in our previous studies was again evident (OR 1.09; 95% CI= 1.01-1.17). However there was no significant change in its pattern over time either for the total group or for males and females separately. When the general population births alone were examined using the same contrasts, seasonality was also observed, but here there were fluctuations over time. These results suggest that exposures linked to changes in general population births over time should be examined in disorders such as schizophrenia which demonstrate seasonality in births. The Stanley Foundation supported this project.

Analysis of long-term light-trap data for Helicoverpa spp. (Lepidoptera : Noctuidae) in Australia: the effect of climate and crop host plants

Regression analyses of a long series of light-trap catches at Narrabri, Australia, were used to describe the seasonal dynamics of Helicoverpa armigera (Hubner). The size of the second generation was significantly related to the size of the first generation, to winter rainfall, which had a positive effect, and to spring rainfall which had a negative effect. These variables accounted for up to 96% of the variation in size of the second generation from year to year. Rainfall and crop hosts were also important for the size of the third generation. The area and tonnage of many potential host crops were significantly correlated with winter rain. When winter rain was omitted from the analysis, the sizes of both the second and third generations could be expressed as a function of the size of the previous generation and of the areas planted to lucerne, sorghum and maize. Lucerne and maize always had positive coefficients and sorghum a negative one. We extended our analysis to catches of H. punctigera (Wallengren), which declines in abundance after the second generation. Winter rain had a positive effect on the sizes of the second and third generations, and rain in spring or early summer had a negative effect. Only the area grown to lucerne had a positive effect on abundance. Forecasts of pest levels from a few months to a few weeks in advance are discussed, along with the improved understanding of the seasonal dynamics of both species and the significance of crops in the management of insecticide resistance for H. armigera.

Molecular immunology databases and data repositories

Over recent years databases have become an extremely important resource for biomedical research. Immunology research is increasingly dependent on access to extensive biological databases to extract existing information, plan experiments, and analyse experimental results. This review describes 15 immunological databases that have appeared over the last 30 years. In addition, important issues regarding database design and the potential for misuse of information contained within these databases are discussed. Access pointers are provided for the major immunological databases and also for a number of other immunological resources accessible over the World Wide Web (WWW). (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Mothers' mental illness and child behavior problems: Cause-effect association or observation bias

Objective: A number, of studies have consistently found that a mother's mental health (particularly her level of depression) is a strong predictor of mental health problems experienced by her child(ren). However, the validity of this finding is in doubt because the majority of these studies have relied on maternal reports as indicators of children's behavior. Method: This prospective, longitudinal study examines data an the mental health of the mother from prior to the birth of her child to when the child reaches 14 years of age. Child behavior is measured at 14 years of age using reports from mother and child. Mother and child responses are compared to provide an indication of the possible magnitude of maternal observation bias in the reporting of child behavior problems. Results: Anxious and/or depressed mothers tend to report more cases of child behavior problems than do their mentally healthy counterparts or children themselves. Differences between mothers and youths In reporting behavior problems appear to be related to the mothers' mental health. Conclusions: Current maternal mental health impairment appears to have a substantial effect on the reporting of child behavior problems by the mother, thereby raising questions about the validity of reports of child behavior by persons who are currently emotionally distressed.

Effect of coinfection with STDs and of STD treatment on HIV shedding in genital-tract secretions - Systematic review and data synthesis

Objective: To determine whether coinfection with sexually transmitted diseases (STD) increases HIV shedding in genital-tract secretions, and whether STD treatment reduces this shedding. Design: Systematic review and data synthesis of cross-sectional and cohort studies meeting. predefined quality criteria. Main Outcome Measures: Proportion of patients with and without a STD who had detectable HIV in genital secretions, HIV toad in genital secretions, or change following STD treatment. Results: Of 48 identified studies, three cross-sectional and three cohort studies were included. HIV was detected significantly more frequently in participants infected with Neisseria gonorrhoeae (125 of 309 participants, 41%) than in those without N gonorrhoeae infection (311 of 988 participants, 32%; P = 0.004). HIV was not significantly more frequently detected in persons infected with Chlamydia trachomatis (28 of 67 participants, 42%) than in those without C trachomatis infection (375 of 1149 participants, 33%; P = 0.13). Median HIV load reported in only one study was greater in men with urethritis (12.4 x 10(4) versus 1.51 x 10(4) copies/ml; P = 0.04). In the only cohort study in which this could be fully assessed, treatment of women with any STD reduced the proportion of those with detectable HIV from 39% to 29% (P = 0.05), whereas this proportion remained stable among controls (15-17%), A second cohort study reported fully on HIV load; among men with urethritis, viral load fell from 12.4 to 4.12 x 10(4) copies/ml 2 weeks posttreatment, whereas viral load remained stable in those without urethritis. Conclusion: Few high-quality studies were found. HIV is detected moderately more frequently in genital secretions of men and women with a STD, and HIV load is substantially increased among men with urethritis, Successful STD treatment reduces both of these parameters, but not to control levels. More high-quality studies are needed to explore this important relationship further.

One year follow-up of cannabis dependence among long-term users in Sydney, Australia

Eighty one percent of a sample of long-term cannabis users was followed up at 1 year (162/200). Half (51%) were daily smokers, while 20% had substantially decreased or ceased use. More than half received a dependence diagnosis on each of three measures in the last year, with 44% dependent on all three. Remission was much more common than incidence of dependence. Nevertheless, use and dependence patterns were strongly related over time. Longitudinal analyses revealed that quantity of use and severity of dependence at baseline were the primary predictors of those same variables at follow-up. These data suggest that cannabis use and dependence are fairly stable among long-term users. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Longitudinal research: methods for maximizing subject follow-up

Early intervention for hazardous alcohol use has been shown repeatedly to be effective in reducing alcohol consumption, limiting alcohol-related problems and improving biochemical parameters. However, in most studies the follow-up period has been 2 years or less. The current paper presents progress on a 10-year follow-up of a randomized controlled trial of early intervention. Methods used for tracing subjects and ensuring minimal refusals are detailed. The intensity of effort required to locate subjects is documented and recommendations for ensuring good follow-up rates are made. At completion of follow-up, 72.5% of the sample reviewed here and 78.2% of the total cohort had been traced. Our experiences demonstrate that long-term follow-up is feasible, given sufficient planning and persistence.

Mortality variation across Australia: descriptive data for States and Territories, and statistical divisions

OBJECTIVE: To describe variation in all cause and selected cause-specific mortality rates across Australia. METHODS: Mortality and population data for 1997 were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. All cause and selected cause-specific mortality rates were calculated and directly standardised to the 1997 Australian population in 5-year age groups. Selected major causes of death included cancer, coronary artery disease, cerebrovascular disease, diabetes, accidents and suicide. Rates are reported by statistical division, and State and Territory. RESULTS: All cause age-standardised mortality was 6.98 per 1000 in 1997 and this varied 2-fold from a low in the statistical division of Pilbara, Western Australia (5.78, 95% confidence interval 5.06-6.56), to a high in Northern Territory-excluding Darwin (11.30, 10.67-11.98). Similar mortality variation (all p<0.0001) exists for cancer (1.01-2.23 per 1000) and coronary artery disease (0.99-2.23 per 1000), the two biggest killers. Larger variation (all p<0.0001) exists for cerebrovascular disease (0.7-11.8 per 10,000), diabetes (0.7-6.9 per 10,000), accidents (1.7-7.2 per 10,000) and suicide (0.6-3.8 per 10,000). Less marked variation was observed when analysed by State and Territory. but Northern Territory consistently has the highest age-standardised mortality rates. CONCLUSIONS: Analysed by statistical division, substantial mortality gradients exist across Australia, suggesting an inequitable distribution of the determinants of health. Further research is required to better understand this heterogeneity.

Monitoring growth in rapidly urbanizing areas using remotely sensed data

Urbanization and the ability to manage for a sustainable future present numerous challenges for geographers and planners in metropolitan regions. Remotely sensed data are inherently suited to provide information on urban land cover characteristics, and their change over time, at various spatial and temporal scales. Data models for establishing the range of urban land cover types and their biophysical composition (vegetation, soil, and impervious surfaces) are integrated to provide a hierarchical approach to classifying land cover within urban environments. These data also provide an essential component for current simulation models of urban growth patterns, as both calibration and validation data. The first stages of the approach have been applied to examine urban growth between 1988 and 1995 for a rapidly developing area in southeast Queensland, Australia. Landsat Thematic Mapper image data provided accurate (83% adjusted overall accuracy) classification of broad land cover types and their change over time. The combination of commonly available remotely sensed data, image processing methods, and emerging urban growth models highlights an important application for current and next generation moderate spatial resolution image data in studies of urban environments.

Integrating attribute and space characteristics in choropleth display and spatial data mining

This paper develops an interactive approach for exploratory spatial data analysis. Measures of attribute similarity and spatial proximity are combined in a clustering model to support the identification of patterns in spatial information. Relationships between the developed clustering approach, spatial data mining and choropleth display are discussed. Analysis of property crime rates in Brisbane, Australia is presented. A surprising finding in this research is that there are substantial inconsistencies in standard choropleth display options found in two widely used commercial geographical information systems, both in terms of definition and performance. The comparative results demonstrate the usefulness and appeal of the developed approach in a geographical information system environment for exploratory spatial data analysis.