A coupled knowledge-based expert system for design of liquid-retaining structures

This paper describes a coupled knowledge-based system (KBS) for the design of liquid-retaining structures, which can handle both the symbolic knowledge processing based on engineering heuristics in the preliminary synthesis stage and the extensive numerical crunching involved in the detailed analysis stage. The prototype system is developed by employing blackboard architecture and a commercial shell VISUAL RULE STUDIO. Its present scope covers design of three types of liquid-retaining structures, namely, a rectangular shape with one compartment, a rectangular shape with two compartments and a circular shape. Through custom-built interactive graphical user interfaces, the user is directed throughout the design process, which includes preliminary design, load specification, model generation, finite element analysis, code compliance checking and member sizing optimization. It is also integrated with various relational databases that provide the system with sectional properties, moment and shear coefficients and final member details. This system can act as a consultant to assist novice designers in the design of liquid-retaining structures with increase in efficiency and optimization of design output and automated record keeping. The design of a typical example of the liquid-retaining structure is also illustrated. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.

The effectiveness of personalized smoking cessation strategies for callers to a Quitline service

Aim To assess the effectiveness of a program of computer-generated tailored advice for callers to a telephone helpline, and to assess whether it enhanced a series of callback telephone counselling sessions in aiding smoking cessation. Design Randomized controlled trial comparing: (1) untailored self-help materials; (2) computer-generated tailored advice only, and (3) computer-generated tailored advice plus callback telephone counselling. Assessment surveys were conducted at baseline, 3, 6 and 12 months. Setting Victoria, Australia. Participants A total of 1578 smokers who called the Quitline service and agreed to participate. Measurements Smoking status at follow-up; duration of cessation, if quit; use of nicotine replacement therapy; and extent of participation in the callback service. Findings At the 3-month follow-up, significantly more (chi(2)(2) = 16.9; P < 0.001) participants in the computer-generated tailored advice plus telephone counselling condition were not smoking (21%) than in either the computer-generated advice only (12%) or the control condition (12%). Proportions reporting not smoking at the 12-month follow-up were 26%, 23% and 22%, respectively (NS) for point prevalence, and for 9 months sustained abstinence; 8.2, 6.0, and 5.0 (NS). In the telephone counselling group, those receiving callbacks were more likely than those who did not to have sustained abstinence at 12 months (10.2 compared with 4.0, P < 0.05). Logistic regression on 3-month data showed significant independent effects on cessation of telephone counselling and use of NRT, but not of computer-generated tailored advice. Conclusion Computer-generated tailored advice did not enhance telephone counselling, nor have any independent effect on cessation. This may be due to poor timing of the computer-generated tailored advice and poor integration of the two modes of advice.

Measuring the accumulated hazards of smoking: global and regional estimates for 2000

Objective: Current prevalence of smoking, even where data are available, is a poor proxy for cumulative hazards of smoking, which depend on several factors including the age at which smoking began, duration of smoking, number of cigarettes smoked per day, degree of inhalation, and cigarette characteristics such as tar and nicotine content or filter type. Methods: We extended the Peto-Lopez smoking impact ratio method to estimate accumulated hazards of smoking for different regions of the world. Lung cancer mortality data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease mortality database. The American Cancer Society Cancer Prevention Study, phase 11 (CPS-II) with follow up for the years 1982 to 1988 was the reference population. For the global application of the method, never-smoker lung cancer mortality rates were chosen based on the estimated use of coal for household energy in each region. Results: Men in industrialised countries of Europe, North America, and the Western Pacific had the largest accumulated hazards of smoking. Young and middle age males in many regions of the developing world also had large smoking risks. The accumulated hazards of smoking for women were highest in North America followed by Europe. Conclusions: In the absence of detailed data on smoking prevalence and history, lung cancer mortality provides a robust indicator of the accumulated hazards of smoking. These hazards in developing countries are currently more concentrated among young and middle aged males.

Estimates of global mortality attributable to smoking in 2000

Background Smoking is a risk factor for several diseases and has been increasing in many developing countries. Our aim was to estimate global and regional mortality in 2000 caused by smoking, including an analysis of uncertainty. Methods Following the methods of Peto and colleagues, we used lung-cancer mortality as an indirect marker for accumulated smoking risk. Never-smoker lung-cancer mortality was estimated based on the household use of coal with poor ventilation. Relative risks were taken from the American Cancer Society Cancer Prevention Study, phase II, and the retrospective proportional mortality analysis of Liu and colleagues in China. Relative risks were corrected for confounding and extrapolation to other regions. Results We estimated that in 2000, 4.83 (uncertainty range 3.94-5.93) million premature deaths in the world were attributable to smoking; 2.41 (1.80-3.15) million in developing countries and 2.43 (2.13-2.78) million in industrialised countries. 3.84 million of these deaths were in men. The leading causes of death from smoking were cardiovascular diseases (1.69 million deaths), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (0.97 million deaths), and lung cancer (0.85 million deaths). Interpretation Smoking was an important cause of global mortality in 2000. In view of the expected demographic and epidemiological transitions and current smoking patterns in the developing world, the health loss due to smoking will grow even larger unless effective interventions and policies that reduce smoking among men and prevent increases among women in developing countries are implemented.