A model for predicting the future incidence of coronary heart disease within percentiles of coronary heart disease risk

Background We present a method (The CHD Prevention Model) for modelling the incidence of fatal and nonfatal coronary heart disease (CHD) within various CHD risk percentiles of an adult population. The model provides a relatively simple tool for lifetime risk prediction for subgroups within a population. It allows an estimation of the absolute primary CHD risk in different populations and will help identify subgroups of the adult population where primary CHD prevention is most appropriate and cost-effective. Methods The CHD risk distribution within the Australian population was modelled, based on the prevalence of CHD risk, individual estimates of integrated CHD risk, and current CHD mortality rates. Predicted incidence of first fatal and nonfatal myocardial infarction within CHD risk strata of the Australian population was determined. Results Approximately 25% of CHD deaths were predicted to occur amongst those in the top 10 percentiles of integrated CHD risk, regardless of age group or gender. It was found that while all causes survival did not differ markedly between percentiles of CHD risk before the ages of around 50-60, event-free survival began visibly to differ about 5 years earlier. Conclusions The CHD Prevention Model provides a means of predicting future CHD incidence amongst various strata of integrated CHD risk within an adult population. It has significant application both in individual risk counselling and in the identification of subgroups of the population where drug therapy to reduce CHD risk is most cost-effective. J Cardiovasc Risk 8:31-37 (C) 2001 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.

Paternal age as a risk factor for psychosis and schizophrenia: Findings from Denmark, Sweden and Australia

The offspringof older fathers have an increased risk of various disorders that may be due to the accumulation of DNA mutations during spermatogenesis. Previous studies have suggested increased paternal age may be a risk factor for schizophrenia. The aim of the current study was to examine paternal age as a risk factor for schizophrenia andror psychosis. We used data from three sources: a population-based cohort studyŽDenmark., and two case-control studiesŽSweden and Australia.. In the Danish and Australian studies, we examined both psychosis and schizophrenia. In the Swedish study we examined psychosis only. After controllingfor the effect of maternal age, increased paternal age was significantly associated with increased risk of both psychosis and schizophrenia in the Danish study and of psychosis in the Swedish study. The Australian study found no association between paternal age and risk of psychosis or schizophrenia. In all three studies the relationship between paternal age and risk of disorder in the offspring was AUB-shaped. In addition to an increased risk for the offspringof older father Ž)35 years., there was a non-significant increase for the offspringof fathers aged less than 20 years. The possible role of paternally derived DNA mutations andror other psychosocial factors associated with older paternal age warrants further research. The ‘U’-shaped relationship suggests that factors other than DNA mutations may warrant consideration in this research. The Stanley Foundation supported this project.

Epidural anaesthesia and analgesia and outcome of major surgery: a randomised trial

Background Epidural block is widely used to manage major abdominal surgery and postoperative analgesia, but its risks. and benefits are uncertain. We compared adverse outcomes in high-risk patients managed for major surgery with epidural block or alternative analgesic regimens with general anaesthesia in a multicentre randomised trial. Methods 915 patients undergoing major abdominal surgery with one of nine defined comorbid states to identify high-risk status were randomly assigned intraoperative epidural anaesthesia and postoperative epidural analgesia for 72 h with general anaesthesia (site of epidural selected to provide optimum block) or control. The primary endpoint was death at 30 days or major postsurgical morbidity. Analysis by intention to treat involved 447 patients assigned epidural and 441 control. Findings 255 patients (57.1%) in the epidural group and 268 (60.7%) in the control group had at least one morbidity endpoint or died (p=0.29). Mortality at 30 days was low in both groups (epidural 23 [5.1%], control 19 [4.3%], p=0.67). Only one of eight categories of morbid endpoints in individual systems (respiratory failure) occurred less frequently in patients managed with epidural techniques (23% vs 30%, p=0.02). Postoperative epidural analgesia was associated with lower pain scores during the first 3 postoperative days. There were no major adverse consequences of epidural-catheter insertion. Interpretation Most adverse morbid outcomes in high-risk patients undergoing major abdominal surgery are not reduced by use of combined epidural and general anaesthesia and postoperative epidural analgesia. However, the improvement in analgesia, reduction in respiratory failure, and the low risk of serious adverse consequences suggest that many high-risk patients undergoing major intra-abdominal surgery will receive substantial benefit from combined general and epidural anaesthesia intraoperatively with continuing postoperative epidural analgesia.

Serum triglycerides as a risk factor for cardiovascular diseases in the Asia-Pacific Region

Background-The importance of serum triglyceride levels as a risk factor for cardiovascular diseases is uncertain. Methods and Results-We performed an individual participant data meta-analysis of prospective studies conducted in the Asia-Pacific region. Cox models were applied to the combined data from 26 studies to estimate the overall and region-, sex-, and age-specific hazard ratios for major cardiovascular diseases by fifths of triglyceride values. During 796 671 person-years of follow-up among 96 224 individuals, 670 and 667 deaths as a result of coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke, respectively, were recorded. After adjustment for major cardiovascular risk factors, participants grouped in the highest fifth of triglyceride levels had a 70% (95% CI, 47 to 96) greater risk of CHD death, an 80% (95% CI, 49 to 119) higher risk of fatal or nonfatal CHD, and a 50% (95% CI, 29% to 76%) increased risk of fatal or nonfatal stroke compared with those belonging to the lowest fifth. The association between triglycerides and CHD death was similar across subgroups defined by ethnicity, age, and sex. Conclusions-Serum triglycerides are an important and independent predictor of CHD and stroke risk in the Asia-Pacific region. These results may have clinical implications for cardiovascular risk prediction and the use of lipid-lowering therapy.

Hormone replacement therapy and breast cancer: estimate of risk: Education debate

The risk of breast cancer arises from a combination of genetic susceptibility and environmental factors. Recent studies show that type and duration of use of hormone replacement therapy affect a women's risk of developing breast cancer.1-7 The women's health initiative trial was stopped early because of excess adverse cardiovascular events and invasive breast cancer with oestrogen and progestogen.6 The publicity increased public awareness of the risks of hormone replacement therapy, and this was heightened by the publication of the million women study.2 However, the recently published oestrogen only arm of the women's health initiative trial suggests that this formulation may reduce the risk of breast cancer.8 To help make sense of the often confusing information,9 women and clinicians need individual rather than population risk data. We have produced estimates that can be used to calculate individual risk for women living up to the age of 79 and suggest the risk

Anthropometric measures in relation to Basal Cell Carcinoma: a longitudinal study

Background: The relationship between anthropometric indices and risk of basal cell carcinoma ( BCC) is largely unknown. We aimed to examine the association between anthropometric measures and development of BCC and to demonstrate whether adherence to World Health Organisation guidelines for body mass index, waist circumference, and waist/ hip ratio was associated with risk of BCC, independent of sun exposure. Methods: Study participants were participants in a community- based skin cancer prevention trial in Nambour, a town in southeast Queensland ( latitude 26 degrees S). In 1992, height, weight, and waist and hip circumferences were measured for all 1621 participants and weight was remeasured at the end of the trial in 1996. Prevalence proportion ratios were calculated using a log- binomial model to estimate the risk of BCC prior to or prevalent in 1992, while Poisson regression with robust error variances was used to estimate the relative risk of BCC during the follow- up period. Results: At baseline, 94 participants had a current BCC, and 202 had a history of BCC. During the 5- year follow- up period, 179 participants developed one or more new BCCs. We found no significant association between any of the anthropometric measures or indices and risk of BCC after controlling for potential confounding factors including sun exposure. There was a suggestion that short- term weight gain may increase the risk of developing BCC for women only. Conclusion: Adherence to World Health Organisation guidelines for body mass index, waist circumference and waist/ hip ratio is not significantly associated with occurrence of basal cell carcinomas of the skin.

Risk factors for sudden unexpected cardiac death in Tasmanian men

Background: Sudden unexpected cardiac death (SUCD) accounts for approximately 25% of deaths from ischaemic heart disease (IHD) but is relatively poorly understood because of the difficulties involved in researching aetiology. Clinical differences between instances of SUCD and those cases of acute chest pain that survive long enough to be proven as myocardial infarction but are eventually fatal might reflect differences in aetiology. Aims: To determine the risk factors for sudden unexpected cardiac death in Tasmanian men. Methods: A population-based case-control method was used with the study population, an estimated 125,225 men aged 25-74 years living in the island State of Tasmania, Australia. The case group of 102 men who had a SUCD was validated using necropsy reports, hospital records and information provided by the usual general practitioner. Cases were matched with 204 community controls. Spouses or partners of eligible subjects answered a detailed questionnaire. Multi-variate odds ratios (ORs) for risk factors were calculated using stepwise analysis. Results: Risk factors measured included: smoking habit, treated hypertension, hypercholesterolaemia, diabetes mellitus, family history of LHD, alcohol intake and exercise habits. Independent risk factors for SUCD were: history of diabetes mellitus (OR=4.2, 95% CI: 1.39, 12.81), current smoking status (OR=3.5, 95% CI: 1.80, 6.82), and family history of IHD (OR=2.6, 95% CI: 1.34, 4.92). Conclusions: Some accepted risk factors for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) also predict sudden death in men with no history of coronary disease. Efforts to reduce smoking, the incidence of diabetes mellitus and mean blood pressure must be continued as SUCD is, by definition, untreatable but is potentially avoidable in many instances.

Risk factors for post-stroke depression

Objective. To examine possible risk factors in post-stroke depression (PSD) other than site of lesion in the brain Data sources. 191 first-ever stroke patients were examined physically shortly after their stroke and examined psychiatrically and physically 4 months post-stroke. Setting. A geographically defined segment of the metropolitan area of Perth, Western Australia, from which all strokes over a course of 18 months were examined (the Perth Community Stroke Study). Measures. Psychiatric Assessment Schedule, Mini Mental State Examination, Barthel Index, Frenchay Activities Index, physical illness and sociodemographic data were collected. Post-stroke depression (PSD) included both major depression and minor depression (dysthymia without the 2-year time stipulation) according to DSM-III (American Psychiatric Association) criteria. Patients depressed at the time of the stroke were excluded. Patients. 191 first-ever stroke patients, 111M, 80F, 28% had PSD, 17% major and 11% minor depression. Results. Significant associations with PSD at 4 months were major functional impairment, living in a nursing home, being divorced and having a high pre-stroke alcohol intake (M only). There was no significant association with age, sex, social class, cognitive impairment or pre-stroke physical illness. Conclusion. Results favoured the hypothesis that depression in an unselected group of stroke patients is no more common, and of no more specific aetiology, than it is among elderly patients with other physical illness.

A mathematical model for Escherichia coli debris size reduction during high pressure homogenisation based on grinding theory

Experimental data for E. coli debris size reduction during high-pressure homogenisation at 55 MPa are presented. A mathematical model based on grinding theory is developed to describe the data. The model is based on first-order breakage and compensation conditions. It does not require any assumption of a specified distribution for debris size and can be used given information on the initial size distribution of whole cells and the disruption efficiency during homogenisation. The number of homogeniser passes is incorporated into the model and used to describe the size reduction of non-induced stationary and induced E. coil cells during homogenisation. Regressing the results to the model equations gave an excellent fit to experimental data ( > 98.7% of variance explained for both fermentations), confirming the model's potential for predicting size reduction during high-pressure homogenisation. This study provides a means to optimise both homogenisation and disc-stack centrifugation conditions for recombinant product recovery. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd.

Attitudes to entry fees to National Parks: Results and policy implications from a Queensland case study

Examines visitor attitudes and whether visitors are willing to pay to enter Lamington National Park and under what circumstances they would do so. First a sample of visitors is asked a general (normative) question as to whether visitors should pay to visit Lamington National Park and in another question (positive) they are asked whether they would be more willing to pay if the money collected would be invested in the park to improve visitor facilities and for conservation work. The results show that visitors are more willing to accept the ‘user-pays’ principle if the money will be used for the benefit of the national park and its visitors. It was found that foreigners are more in support for a ‘user-pay’ fee than Australians, and among Australians, those visitors from Queensland are the least willing to accept the idea of a user-pay fee to enter the park. The results indicate that if visitors can be shown the benefits (both for visitors and for conservation) of charging an entry fee, then visitors are more likely to support such a concept than when they are unaware of the benefits of a user-fee. The study shows that on average foreigners are willing to pay more than Australians. Finally, the regression results identify significant factors influencing visitors’ attitudes and suggested amounts to visit the national park.

Opportunities for the control of coronary heart disease in Australia

Objective: To estimate the number of coronary events that could be prevented in Australia each year by the use of preventive and therapeutic strategies targeted to subgroups of the population based on their levels of risk and need. Methods: Estimates of risk reduction from the published literature, prevalence estimates of elevated risk factor levels from the 1995 National Health Survey and treatment levels from the Australian collaborating centres in the World Health Organization's MONICA Project were used to calculate numbers of coronary events preventable among men and women aged 35-79 years in Australia. Results: Approximately 14,000 coronary events could be avoided each year if the mean level of cholesterol in the population was reduced by 0.5 mmol/L, smoking prevalence was halved and prevalence of physical inactivity was reduced to 25%. This represents a reduction in coronary events of about 40%. Even with less optimistic targets, a reduction of 20% could be attained, while the achievement of some internationally recommended targets could lead to almost 50% reduction. In the short term, aggressive medical treatment of people with elevated levels of risk factors and established coronary disease offers the greatest opportunity for reducing coronary events. Conclusion: A comprehensive approach to reduce levels of behavioural and biological risk factors and improve the use of effective treatment could lead to a large reduction in coronary event rates. In the long term, primary prevention - especially to reduce smoking, lower cholesterol levels and increase exercise - has the potential to reduce the population levels of risk and hence contain the national cost of coronary disease.

Diet, lifestyle and the risk of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in women

Background Previous studies have examined individual dietary and lifestyle factors in relation to type 2 diabetes, but the combined effects of these factors are largely unknown. Methods We followed 84,941 female nurses from 1980 to 1996; these women were free of diagnosed cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and cancer at base line. Information about their diet and lifestyle was updated periodically. A low-risk group was defined according to a combination of five variables: a body-mass index (the weight in kilograms divided by the square of the height in meters) of less than 25; a diet high in cereal fiber and polyunsaturated fat and low in trans fat and glycemic load (which reflects the effect of diet on the blood glucose level); engagement in moderate-to-vigorous physical activity for at least half an hour per day; no current smoking; and the consumption of an average of at least half a drink of an alcoholic beverage per day. Results During 16 years of follow-up, we documented 3300 new cases of type 2 diabetes. Overweight or obesity was the single most important predictor of diabetes. Lack of exercise, a poor diet, current smoking, and abstinence from alcohol use were all associated with a significantly increased risk of diabetes, even after adjustment for the body-mass index. As compared with the rest of the cohort, women in the low-risk group (3.4 percent of the women) had a relative risk of diabetes of 0.09 (95 percent confidence interval, 0.05 to 0.17). A total of 91 percent of the cases of diabetes in this cohort (95 percent confidence interval, 83 to 95 percent) could be attributed to habits and forms of behavior that did not conform to the low-risk pattern. Conclusions Our findings support the hypothesis that the majority of cases of type 2 diabetes could be prevented by the adoption of a healthier lifestyle.

Ripening and quality responses of avocado, custard apple, mango and papaya fruit to 1-methylcyclopropene

The potential for the ethylene binding inhibitor, 1-methylcyclopropene, to delay ripening of 'Hass' avocado, 'African Pride' custard apple, 'Kensington Pride' mango and 'Solo' papaya was examined. Fruit were gassed with 25 muL/L 1-methylcyclopropene for 14 h at 20 degreesC, followed by treatment with 100 muL/L ethylene for 24 h, and then ripened at 20 degreesC. Ethylene treatment alone generally halved the number of days for fruit to reach the ripe stage, compared with untreated fruit. 1-Methylcyclopropene treatment alone increased the number of days to ripening by 4.4 days (40% increase), 3.4 days (58%), 5.1 days (37%) and 15.6 days (325%) for avocado, custard apple, mango and papaya, respectively, compared with untreated fruit. Applying 1-methylcyclopropene to the fruit before ethylene prevented the accelerated ripening normally associated with ethylene treatment, so that the number of days to ripening for fruit treated with 1-methylcyclopropene plus ethylene was similar to the number of days to ripening for fruit treated with 1-methylcyclopropene alone. 1-Methylcyclopropene treatment was associated with slightly higher severity of external blemishes in papaya and custard apple, slightly higher rots severity in avocado, custard apple and papaya, and at least double the severity of stem rots in mango, relative to fruit not treated with 1-methylcyclopropene. Thus, 1-methylcyclopropene treatment has the potential to reduce the risk of premature ripening of avocado, custard apple, mango and papaya fruit due to accidental exposure to ethylene. However, additional precautions may be necessary to reduce disease severity associated with 1-methylcyclopropene treatment.

Detection of dengue viral RNA in Aedes aegypti (Diptera : Culicidae) exposed to sticky lures using reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction

Active surveillance for dengue (DEN) virus infected mosquitoes can be an effective way to predict the risk of dengue infection in a given area. However, doing so may pose logistical problems if mosquitoes must be kept alive or frozen fresh to detect DEN virus. In an attempt to simplify mosquito processing, we evaluated the usefulness of a sticky lure and a seminested reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction assay (RT-PCR) for detecting DEN virus RNA under laboratory conditions using experimentally infected Aedes aegypti (L.) mosquitoes. In the first experiment, 40 male mosquitoes were inoculated with 0.13 mul of a 10(4) pfu/ml DEN-2 stock solution. After a 7-d incubation period, the mosquitoes were applied to the sticky lure and kept at room temperatures of 23-30 degreesC. Following 7,10,14, and 28 d application, 10 mosquitoes each were removed from the lure pooled and assayed for virus. DEN virus nucleic acid was clearly detectable in all pools up to 28 d after death. A second study evaluated sensitivity and specificity using one, two, and five DEN-infected mosquitoes removed after 7, 10, 14, 21 and 30 d application and tested by RT-PCR. All four DEN serotypes were individually inoculated in mosquitoes and evaluated using the same procedures as experiment 1. The four serotypes were detectable in as few as one mosquito 30 d after application to the lure with no evidence of cross-reactivity. The combination of sticky lures and RT-PCR show promise for mosquito and dengue virus surveillance and warrant further evaluation.

Effect of fruit maturity on the response of 'Kensington' mango fruit to heat treatment

The effects of conditioning and hot water treatments on immature and mature 'Kensington' mangoes were examined. A hot water treatment of 47 degreesC fruit core temperature held for 15 min increased weight loss (50%), fruit softness (15%), disrupted starch hydrolysis and interacted with maturity to reduce the skin yellowness (40-51%) of early harvested fruit. Immature fruit were more susceptible to hot water treatment-induced skin scalding, starch layer and starch spot injuries and disease. Conditioning fruit at 40 degreesC for up to 16 h before hot water treatment accelerated fruit ripening, as reflected in higher total soluble solids and lower titratable acidity levels. As fruit maturity increased, the tolerance to hot water treatment-induced skin scalding and the retention of starch layers and starch spots increased and susceptibility to lenticel spotting decreased. A conditioning treatment of either 22 degrees or 40 degreesC before hot water treatment could prevent the appearance of cavities at all maturity levels. The 40 degreesC conditioning temperature was found to be more effective in increasing fruit heat tolerance than the 22 degreesC treatment; the longer the time of conditioning at 40 degreesC, the more effective the treatment (16 v. 4 h). For maximum fruit quality, particularly for export markets, it is recommended that mature fruit are selected and conditioned before hot water treatment to reduce the risk of heat damage.