Tillering in grain sorghum over a wide range of population densities: Modelling dynamics of tiller fertility

The prediction of tillering is poor or absent in existing sorghum crop models even though fertile tillers contribute significantly to grain yield. The objective of this study was to identify general quantitative relationships underpinning tiller dynamics of sorghum for a broad range of assimilate availabilities. Emergence, phenology, leaf area development and fertility of individual main calms and tillers were quantified weekly in plants grown at one of four plant densities ranging from two to 16 plants m(-2). On any given day, a tiller was considered potentially fertile (a posteriori) if its number of leaves continued to increase thereafter. The dynamics of potentially fertile tiller number per plant varied greatly with plant density, but could generally be described by three determinants, stable across plant densities: tiller emergence rate aligned with leaf ligule appearance rate; cessation of tiller emergence occurred at a stable leaf area index; and rate of decrease in potentially fertile tillers was linearly related to the ratio of realized to potential leaf area growth. Realized leaf area growth is the measured increase in leaf area, whereas potential leaf area growth is the estimated increase in leaf area if all potentially fertile tillers were to continue to develop. Procedures to predict this ratio, by estimating realized leaf area per plant from intercepted radiation and potential leaf area per plant from the number and type of developing axes, are presented. While it is suitable for modelling tiller dynamics in grain sorghum, this general framework needs to be validated by testing it in different environments and for other cultivars. (C) 2002 Annals of Botany Company.

Modeling of gas adsorption equilibrium over a wide range of pressure: A thermodynamic approach based on equation of state

A thermodynamic approach based on the Bender equation of state is suggested for the analysis of supercritical gas adsorption on activated carbons at high pressure. The approach accounts for the equality of the chemical potential in the adsorbed phase and that in the corresponding bulk phase and the distribution of elements of the adsorption volume (EAV) over the potential energy for gas-solid interaction. This scheme is extended to subcritical fluid adsorption and takes into account the phase transition in EAV The method is adapted to gravimetric measurements of mass excess adsorption and has been applied to the adsorption of argon, nitrogen, methane, ethane, carbon dioxide, and helium on activated carbon Norit R I in the temperature range from 25 to 70 C. The distribution function of adsorption volume elements over potentials exhibits overlapping peaks and is consistently reproduced for different gases. It was found that the distribution function changes weakly with temperature, which was confirmed by its comparison with the distribution function obtained by the same method using nitrogen adsorption isotherm at 77 K. It was shown that parameters such as pore volume and skeleton density can be determined directly from adsorption measurements, while the conventional approach of helium expansion at room temperature can lead to erroneous results due to the adsorption of helium in small pores of activated carbon. The approach is a convenient tool for analysis and correlation of excess adsorption isotherms over a wide range of pressure and temperature. This approach can be readily extended to the analysis of multicomponent adsorption systems. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science (USA).

The rhetoric of sector-wide approaches for health development

The past decade has witnessed an increasing concerns over the effectiveness of project-based development assistance and the promotion of sector-wide approaches (SWAps) to health as a means to increase donor collaboration, consolidate local management of resources and undertake the policy and systems reform necessary to achieve a greater impact on health issues. The concept has gained the support of both the World Bank and the World Health Organisation, as well as key bilateral donors, and dominates current initiatives in development assistance for health. This paper examines the proposal of SWAps as rhetoric, and seeks to understand how that rhetoric functions, despite the variable application of its constituent elements and the range of contexts in which it operates. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Engineering closure of an open pit gold operation in a semi-arid climate

Along with material characteristics and geometry, the climate in which a mine is located can have a dramatic effect on the appropriate options for rehabilitation. The paper outlines the setting, mining, milling and waste disposal at Kidston Gold Mine's open pit operations in the semi-arid climate of North Queensland, Australia, before focusing on the engineering aspects of the rehabilitation of Kidston. The mine took a holistic and proactive approach to rehabilitation, and was prepared to demonstrate a number of innovative approaches, which are described in the paper. Engineering issues that had to be addressed included the geotechnical stability and deformation of waste rock dumps, including a 240 m high in-pit dump: the construction and performance monitoring of a “store and release” cover over potentially acid forming mineralised waste rock; erosion from the side slopes of the waste rock dumps; the in-pit co-disposal of waste rock and thickened tailings; the geotechnical stability of the tailings dam wall; the potential for erosion of bare tailings; the water balance of the tailings dam; direct revegetation of the tailings; and the pit hydrology. The rehabilitation of the mine represents an important benchmark in mine site rehabilitation best practice, from which lessons applicable worldwide can be shared.

Ontogenetic changes of swimming kinematics in a semi-aquatic reptile (Crocodylus porosus)

Semi-aquatic animals represent a transitional locomotor condition characterised by the possession of morphological features that allow locomotion both in water and on land. Most ecologically important behaviours of crocodilians occur in the water, raising the question of whether their 'terrestrial construction' constrains aquatic locomotion. Moreover, the demands for aquatic locomotion change with life-history stage. It was the aim of this research to determine the kinematic characteristics and efficiency of aquatic locomotion in different-sized crocodiles (Crocodylus porosus). Aquatic propulsion was achieved primarily by tail undulations, and the use of limbs during swimming was observed only in very small animals or at low swimming velocities in larger animals. Over the range of swimming speeds we examined, tail beat amplitude did not change with increasing velocity, but amplitude increased significantly with body length. However, amplitude expressed relative to body length decreased with increasing body length. Tail beat frequency increased with swimming velocity but there were no differences in frequency between different-sized animals. Mechanical power generated during swimming and thrust increased non-linearly with swimming velocity, but disproportionally so that kinematic efficiency decreased with increasing swimming velocity. The importance of unsteady forces, expressed as the reduced frequency, increased with increasing swimming velocity. Amplitude is the main determinant of body-size-related increases in swimming velocity but, compared with aquatic mammals and fish, crocodiles are slow swimmers probably because of constraints imposed by muscle performance and unsteady forces opposing forward movement. Nonetheless, the kinematic efficiency of aquatic locomotion in crocodiles is comparable to that of fully aquatic mammals, and it is considerably greater than that of semi-aquatic mammals.

Bridging the gap between different statistical approaches: An integrated framework for modelling

This paper proposes a template for modelling complex datasets that integrates traditional statistical modelling approaches with more recent advances in statistics and modelling through an exploratory framework. Our approach builds on the well-known and long standing traditional idea of 'good practice in statistics' by establishing a comprehensive framework for modelling that focuses on exploration, prediction, interpretation and reliability assessment, a relatively new idea that allows individual assessment of predictions. The integrated framework we present comprises two stages. The first involves the use of exploratory methods to help visually understand the data and identify a parsimonious set of explanatory variables. The second encompasses a two step modelling process, where the use of non-parametric methods such as decision trees and generalized additive models are promoted to identify important variables and their modelling relationship with the response before a final predictive model is considered. We focus on fitting the predictive model using parametric, non-parametric and Bayesian approaches. This paper is motivated by a medical problem where interest focuses on developing a risk stratification system for morbidity of 1,710 cardiac patients given a suite of demographic, clinical and preoperative variables. Although the methods we use are applied specifically to this case study, these methods can be applied across any field, irrespective of the type of response.

An EM-based Semi-Parametric Mixture Model Approach to the Regression Analysis of Competing-Risks Data

We consider a mixture model approach to the regression analysis of competing-risks data. Attention is focused on inference concerning the effects of factors on both the probability of occurrence and the hazard rate conditional on each of the failure types. These two quantities are specified in the mixture model using the logistic model and the proportional hazards model, respectively. We propose a semi-parametric mixture method to estimate the logistic and regression coefficients jointly, whereby the component-baseline hazard functions are completely unspecified. Estimation is based on maximum likelihood on the basis of the full likelihood, implemented via an expectation-conditional maximization (ECM) algorithm. Simulation studies are performed to compare the performance of the proposed semi-parametric method with a fully parametric mixture approach. The results show that when the component-baseline hazard is monotonic increasing, the semi-parametric and fully parametric mixture approaches are comparable for mildly and moderately censored samples. When the component-baseline hazard is not monotonic increasing, the semi-parametric method consistently provides less biased estimates than a fully parametric approach and is comparable in efficiency in the estimation of the parameters for all levels of censoring. The methods are illustrated using a real data set of prostate cancer patients treated with different dosages of the drug diethylstilbestrol. Copyright (C) 2003 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

Designing a 161-element Ku-band microstrip reflectarray of variable size patches using an equivalent unit cell waveguide approach

An equivalent unit cell waveguide approach (WGA) to designing 4 multilayer microstrip reflectarray of variable size patches is presented. In this approach, a normal incidence of a plane wave on an infinite periodic array of radiating elements is considered to obtain reflection coefficient phase curves for the reflectarray's elements. It is shown that this problem is equivalent to the problem of reflection of the dominant TEM mode in a waveguide with patches interleaved by layers of dielectric. This waveguide problem is solved using a field matching technique and a method of moments (MoM). Based on this solution, a fast computer algorithm is developed to generate reflection coefficient phase curves for a multilayer microstrip patch reflectarray. The validity of the developed algorithm is tested against alternative approaches and Agilent High Frequency Structure Simulator (HFSS). Having confirmed the validity of the WGA approach, a small offset feed two-layer microstrip patch array is designed and developed. This reflectarray is tested experimentally and shows good performance.

Speleothem U-series dating of semi-synchronous climate oscillations during the last deglaciation

Evidence for nearly synchronous climate oscillations during the last deglaciation has been found throughout the Northern Hemisphere but few records are based on independent time scales of calendar years. We present a rare uranium-series dated oxygen-carbon isotope record for a speleothem from Tangshan Cave, China, which demonstrates that abrupt deglacial climatic oscillations from 16 800 to 10 500 yr BP are semi-synchronous with those found in Greenland ice core records. Relatively rapid shifts in speleothem oxygen isotope ratios demonstrate that the intensity of the East Asian monsoon switched in parallel with the abrupt transitions separating the Bolling-Allerod, Younger Dryas, and pre-Boreal climatic reversals. However, the dated isotopic transitions appear to have lasted longer. Our results demonstrate the dominant role of atmospheric teleconnections in the rapid propagation of deglacial climatic signals on a hemispheric scale, and highlight the importance of U-series dated speleothems in the timing and characterization of abrupt climate change. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.