94 resultados para Robust Policymaking


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The link between body size and risk of extinction has been the focus of much recent attention. For Australian terrestrial mammals this link is of particular interest because it is widely believed that species in the intermediate size range of 35-5500 g (the critical weight range) have been the most prone to recent extinction. But the relationship between body size and extinction risk in Australian mammals has never been subject to a robust statistical analysis. Using a combination of randomization tests and phylogenetic comparative analyses, we found that Australian mammal extinctions and declines have been nonrandom with respect to body size, but we reject the hypothesis of a critical weight range at intermediate sizes. Small species appear to be the least prone to extinction, but extinctions have not been significantly clustered around intermediate sizes. Our results suggest that hypotheses linking intermediate body size with high risk of extinction in Australian mammals are misguided and that the focus of future research should shift to explaining why the smallest species are the most resistant to extinction.

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This study investigates whether fee dependence within the audit firms' offices jeopardises auditor independence. Fee dependence is examined at both the national audit firm level as well as the local office level and in a setting where public disclosure of fees is mandatory. We focus our tests on audit fee dependence and at the same time we control for the effects of non-audit service fee dependence post the 1989 mergers. We operationalise the exercise of independent judgement in auditing by the propensity to issue qualified audit opinions. If fee dependence affects auditors' independent judgement, then auditors are less likely to qualify the accounts. The study's results show that the level of auditor fee dependence does not affect auditor propensity to issue unqualified audit opinions. The findings remain robust to a number of sensitivity tests including the analyses controlling for the effects of non-audit service fee dependence and other settings in which there is heightened pressure on auditors to confront the effects of fee dependence on exercising independent audit judgement. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

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This study presents novel evidence that N-15 natural abundance can be used as a robust indicator to detect pollutant nitrogen in natural plant communities. Vegetation from the heavily polluted industrial area of Cubatao in Sao Paulo State, SE Brazil, was strongly N-15 depleted compared to plants at remote sites. Historic herbarium samples from Cubatao were significantly less N-15 depleted than extant plants, indicating that N-15 depletion of vegetation is associated with present-day nitrogen pollution in Cubatao. The heavy load of nitrogenous atmospheric pollutants in Cubatao provides a nitrogen source for plants, and strongly N-15 depleted air NH3 is likely to contribute to plant and soil N-15 depletion. Epiphytic plants from Cubatao were extremely N-15 depleted (average -10.9parts per thousand) contrasting with epiphytes at remote sites (averages -1.0parts per thousand and -3.0parts per thousand). Nitrogen isotope composition of vegetation provides a tool to determine input of pollutant nitrogen into plant communities. The strong isotopic change of epiphytes suggests that epiphytes are particularly sensitive biomonitors for atmospheric pollutant nitrogen.

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The control of the nitrate recirculation flow in a predenitrification system is addressed. An elementary mass balance analysis on the utilisation efficiency of the influent biodegradable COD (bCOD) for nitrate removal indicates that the control problem can be broken down into two parts: maintaining the anoxic zone anoxic (i.e. nitrate is present throughout the anoxic zone) and maximising the usage of influent soluble bCOD for denitrification. Simulation studies using the Simulation Benchmark developed in the European COST program show that both objectives can be achieved by maintaining the nitrate concentration at the outlet of the anoxic zone at around 2 mgN/L. This setpoint appears to be robust towards variations in the influent characteristics and sludge kinetics.

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In this paper an approach to extreme event control in wastewater treatment plant operation by use of automatic supervisory control is discussed. The framework presented is based on the fact that different operational conditions manifest themselves as clusters in a multivariate measurement space. These clusters are identified and linked to specific and corresponding events by use of principal component analysis and fuzzy c-means clustering. A reduced system model is assigned to each type of extreme event and used to calculate appropriate local controller set points. In earlier work we have shown that this approach is applicable to wastewater treatment control using look-up tables to determine current set points. In this work we focus on the automatic determination of appropriate set points by use of steady state and dynamic predictions. The performance of a relatively simple steady-state supervisory controller is compared with that of a model predictive supervisory controller. Also, a look-up table approach is included in the comparison, as it provides a simple and robust alternative to the steady-state and model predictive controllers, The methodology is illustrated in a simulation study.

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Background Systolic myocardial Doppler velocity accurately identifies coronary artery disease. However, these velocities may be affected by age, hemodynamic responses to stress, and left ventricular cavity size. We sought to examine the influences of these variables on myocardial velocity during dobutamine stress in patients with normal wall motion. Methods One hundred seventy-nine consecutive patients with normal dobutamine echocardiograms were studied. Color myocardial tissue Doppler data were obtained at rest and peak stress, and peak systolic myocardial velocity (PSV) was measured in all basal and midventricular segments. Velocities at rest and peak stress were compared with left ventricular diastolic and systolic volumes, blood pressure, heart rate, and age by Pearson correlation and interdecile analysis by use of analysis of variance. Results The only clinical variable correlating with velocity was age; PSV showed only mild correlation with age at rest (r(2) = 0.01, P = .001) and peak stress (r(2) = 0.02, P = .001), but the normal peak velocity was significantly different between the extremes of age (<44 years and >74 years). There was very weak correlation of PSV with systolic and diastolic blood pressure (r(2) < 0.01), heart rate (r(2) < 0.01), systemic vascular resistance (r(2) = 0.08), and left ventricular volumes (r(2) < 0.01). Conclusions Peak systolic velocity during dobutamine stress is relatively independent of hemodynamic factors and left ventricular cavity size. The extremes of age may influence peak systolic Doppler velocities. These results suggest that peak systolic velocity may be a robust quantitative measure during dobutamine echocardiography across most patient subgroups.

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The present series of experiments was designed to assess whether rule-based accounts of Pavlovian learning can account for cue competition effects observed after elemental training. All experiments involved initial differential conditioning training with A-US and B alone presentations. Miscuing refers to the fact that responding to A is impaired after one B-US presentation whereas interference is the impairment of responding to A after presentation of C-US pairings. Omission refers to the effects on B of A alone presentations. Experiments 1-2a provided clear evidence for miscuing whereas interference was not found after 1, 5 or 10 C-US pairings. Moreover, Experiments 3 and 3a found only weak evidence for interference in an A-US, B I C-US, D I A design used previously to show the effect. Experiments 4 and 5 failed to find any effect of US omission after one or five omission trials. The present results indicate that miscuing is more robust than is the interference effect. Moreover, the asymmetrical effects of US miscuing and US omission are difficult to accommodate within rule-based accounts of Pavlovian conditioning. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved.

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We present an efficient and robust method for calculating state-to-state reaction probabilities utilising the Lanczos algorithm for a real symmetric Hamiltonian. The method recasts the time-independent Artificial Boundary Inhomogeneity technique recently introduced by Jang and Light (J. Chem. Phys. 102 (1995) 3262) into a tridiagonal (Lanczos) representation. The calculation proceeds at the cost of a single Lanczos propagation for each boundary inhomogeneity function and yields all state-to-state probabilities (elastic, inelastic and reactive) over an arbitrary energy range. The method is applied to the collinear H + H-2 reaction and the results demonstrate it is accurate and efficient in comparison with previous calculations. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

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In this paper we establish a foundation for understanding the instrumentation needs of complex dynamic systems if ecological interface design (EID)-based interfaces are to be robust in the face of instrumentation failures. EID-based interfaces often include configural displays which reveal the higher-order properties of complex systems. However, concerns have been expressed that such displays might be misleading when instrumentation is unreliable or unavailable. Rasmussen's abstraction hierarchy (AH) formalism can be extended to include representations of sensors near the functions or properties about which they provide information, resulting in what we call a sensor-annotated abstraction hierarchy. Sensor-annotated AHs help the analyst determine the impact of different instrumentation engineering policies on higher-order system information by showing how the data provided from individual sensors propagates within and across levels of abstraction in the AH. The use of sensor-annotated AHs with a configural display is illustrated with a simple water reservoir example. We argue that if EID is to be effectively employed in the design of interfaces for complex systems, then the information needs of the human operator need to be considered at the earliest stages of system development while instrumentation requirements are being formulated. In this way, Rasmussen's AH promotes a formative approach to instrumentation engineering. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Australia ranks high internationally in the prevalence of cannabis and other illicit drug use, with the prevalence of all illicit drug use increasing since the 1970s. There are two distinctive features associated with harms from injecting drug use-high rates of death from heroin overdose and low rates of HIV infection. Australia has largely avoided a punitive and moralistic drug policy, developing instead harm minimization strategies and a robust treatment framework embedded in a strong law enforcement regime. Two illustrations of Australian drug policy are presented: legislation that provides for the expiation of simple cannabis offences by payment of a fine and the widespread implementation of agonist maintenance treatment for heroin dependence.

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The isotope composition of Ph is difficult to determine accurately due to the lack of a stable normalisation ratio. Double and triple-spike addition techniques provide one solution and presently yield the most accurate measurements. A number of recent studies have claimed that improved accuracy and precision could also be achieved by multi-collector ICP-MS (MC-ICP-MS) Pb-isotope analysis using the addition of Tl of known isotope composition to Pb samples. In this paper, we verify whether the known isotope composition of Tl can be used for correction of mass discrimination of Pb with an extensive dataset for the NIST standard SRM 981, comparison of MC-ICP-MS with TIMS data, and comparison with three isochrons from different geological environments. When all our NIST SRM 981 data are normalised with one constant Tl-205/Tl-203 of 2.38869, the following averages and reproducibilities were obtained: Pb-207/Pb-206=0.91461+/-18; Pb-208/Ph-206 = 2.1674+/-7; and (PbPh)-Pb-206-Ph-204 = 16.941+/-6. These two sigma standard deviations of the mean correspond to 149, 330, and 374 ppm, respectively. Accuracies relative to triple-spike values are 149, 157, and 52 ppm, respectively, and thus well within uncertainties. The largest component of the uncertainties stems from the Ph data alone and is not caused by differential mass discrimination behaviour of Ph and Tl. In routine operation, variation of sample introduction memory and production of isobaric molecular interferences in the spectrometer's collision cell currently appear to be the ultimate limitation to better reproducibility. Comparative study of five different datasets from actual samples (bullets, international rock standards, carbonates, metamorphic minerals, and sulphide minerals) demonstrates that in most cases geological scatter of the sample exceeds the achieved analytical reproducibility. We observe good agreement between TIMS and MC-ICP-MS data for international rock standards but find that such comparison does not constitute the ultimate. test for the validity of the MC-ICP-MS technique. Two attempted isochrons resulted in geological scatter (in one case small) in excess of analytical reproducibility. However, in one case (leached Great Dyke sulphides) we obtained a true isochron (MSWD = 0.63) age of 2578.3 +/- 0.9 Ma, which is identical to and more precise than a recently published U-Pb zircon age (2579 3 Ma) for a Great Dyke websterite [Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 180 (2000) 1-12]. Reproducibility of this age by means of an isochron we regard as a robust test of accuracy over a wide dynamic range. We show that reliable and accurate Pb-isotope data can be obtained by careful operation of second-generation MC-ICP magnetic sector mass spectrometers. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

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A detailed analysis procedure is described for evaluating rates of volumetric change in brain structures based on structural magnetic resonance (MR) images. In this procedure, a series of image processing tools have been employed to address the problems encountered in measuring rates of change based on structural MR images. These tools include an algorithm for intensity non-uniforniity correction, a robust algorithm for three-dimensional image registration with sub-voxel precision and an algorithm for brain tissue segmentation. However, a unique feature in the procedure is the use of a fractional volume model that has been developed to provide a quantitative measure for the partial volume effect. With this model, the fractional constituent tissue volumes are evaluated for voxels at the tissue boundary that manifest partial volume effect, thus allowing tissue boundaries be defined at a sub-voxel level and in an automated fashion. Validation studies are presented on key algorithms including segmentation and registration. An overall assessment of the method is provided through the evaluation of the rates of brain atrophy in a group of normal elderly subjects for which the rate of brain atrophy due to normal aging is predictably small. An application of the method is given in Part 11 where the rates of brain atrophy in various brain regions are studied in relation to normal aging and Alzheimer's disease. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.

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Stock splits are known to have a negative effect on market quality—while stock prices adjust consistently with the split's scale, the bid/ask spread and market depth do not. Two possible explanations for the relative increase in spread are that (i) splits cause an increase in market maker costs that are passed along to investors or (ii) splits provide a mechanism for market makers to increase excess profits. Using a robust econometric methodology, we find evidence of the latter, which raises questions about the motivation of the splitting practice. We also document that while NASDAQ spreads appear to adjust more fully than those of NYSE/AMEX stocks, NASDAQ spreads are higher in general.

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This paper investigates the robustness of a range of short–term interest rate models. We examine the robustness of these models over different data sets, time periods, sampling frequencies, and estimation techniques. We examine a range of popular one–factor models that allow the conditional mean (drift) and conditional variance (diffusion) to be functions of the current short rate. We find that parameter estimates are highly sensitive to all of these factors in the eight countries that we examine. Since parameter estimates are not robust, these models should be used with caution in practice.

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Objective: To compare percentage body fat (%BF) for a given body mass index (BMI) among New Zealand European, Maori and Pacific Island children. To develop prediction equations based on bioimpedance measurements for the estimation of fat-free mass (FFM) appropriate to children in these three ethnic groups. Design: Cross-sectional study. Purposive sampling of schoolchildren aimed at recruiting three children of each sex and ethnicity for each year of age. Double cross-validation of FFM prediction equations developed by multiple regression. Setting: Local schools in Auckland. Subjects: Healthy European, Maori and Pacific Island children (n = 172, 83 M, 89 F, mean age 9.4 +/- 2.8(s. d.), range 5 - 14 y). Measurements: Height, weight, age, sex and ethnicity were recorded. FFM was derived from measurements of total body water by deuterium dilution and resistance and reactance were measured by bioimpedance analysis. Results: For fixed BMI, the Maori and Pacific Island girls averaged 3.7% lower % BF than European girls. For boys a similar relation was not found since BMI did not significantly influence % BF of European boys ( P = 0.18). Based on bioimpedance measurements a single prediction equation was developed for all children: FFM (kg) = 0.622 height (cm)(2)/ resistance +0.234 weight (kg)+1.166, R-2 = 0.96, s. e. e. = 2.44 kg. Ethnicity, age and sex were not significant predictors. Conclusions: A robust equation for estimation of FFM in New Zealand European, Maori and Pacific Island children in the 5 - 14 y age range that is more suitable than BMI for the determination of body fatness in field studies has been developed. Sponsorship: Maurice and Phyllis Paykel Trust, Auckland University of Technology Contestable Grants Fund and the Ministry of Health.