Genetic diversity and regional identity in the Australian remnant Nothofagus moorei

Nothofagus moorei (F. Muell.) Krasser has a disjunct and narrow distribution in south-eastern Australian cool temperate rainforest. To assess the conservation-genetic priorities for this species, the genetic diversity of 20 populations sampled from the largest remnant patches at northern and southern distributional extremes, the McPherson and Barrington ranges (a total of 146 individuals), was investigated by using inter simple sequence repeats (ISSR). Regeneration in northern regions of N. moorei has been documented to be predominantly by vegetative means, but our results indicate little evidence of clonality outside the multi-stemmed rings of trees. In addition, genetic diversity was considerably higher in the northern (McPherson, h = 0.1613) than in the southern range (Barrington, h = 0.1159), and genetic differentiation was significantly positively correlated with geographic distance in the former region, but not the latter. Total intraspecific variation was moderate, as measured by Shannon's diversity index, I = 0.2719, and Nei's gene diversity, h = 0.1672, and is considered at the high end of spectrum for estimates of narrow endemic species. An analysis of molecular variation indicated that the majority of genetic variation is partitioned among individuals within population (60%; P < 0.001), rather than among populations within regions (10%; P < 0.001). However, a large and significant component of the measured diversity was partitioned between northern and southern regions (29%; P < 0.001). Several hypotheses are outlined to explain these differences and management implications are discussed. However, given the narrow range, poor dispersal mechanism and restriction to cool temperate rainforest, the continued existence of N. moorei is most threatened by environmental instability and habitat loss resulting from global climate change. In this context the northern regions of the species are most at risk and extinction of such populations would lead to a significant loss of genetic variation for the species as a whole.

Conditional risk, return and contagion in the banking sector in Asia

This paper investigates risk and return in the banking sector in three Asian markets of Taiwan, China and Hong Kong. The study focuses on the risk-return relation in a conditional factor GARCH-M framework that controls for time-series effects. The factor approach is adopted to incorporate intra-industry contagion and an analysis of spillovers between large banks and small banks. Finally, the study provides evidence on these relations before and after the Asian financial crisis of 1997. The results are generally consistent across the markets and with expectations.

Disorders of breathing and continence have a stronger association with back pain than obesity and physical activity

Although obesity and physical activity have been argued to predict back pain, these factors are also related to incontinence and breathing difficulties. Breathing and continence mechanisms may interfere with the physiology of spinal control, and may provide a link to back pain. The aim of this study was to establish the association between back pain and disorders of continence and respiration in women. We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of self-report, postal survey data from the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health. We used multinomial logistic regression to model four levels of back pain in relation to both the traditional risk factors of body mass index and activity level, and the potential risk factors of incontinence, breathing difficulties, and allergy. A total of 38 050 women were included from three age-cohorts. When incontinence and breathing difficulties were considered, obesity and physical activity were not consistently associated with back pain. In contrast, odds ratios (OR) for often having back pain were higher for women often having incontinence compared to women without incontinence (OR were 2.5, 2.3 and 2.3 for young, mid-age! and older women, respectively). Similarly, mid-aged and older women had higher odds of having back pain often when they experienced breathing difficulties often compared to women with no breathing problems (OR of 2.0 and 1.9, respectively). Unlike obesity and physical activity, disorders of continence and respiration were strongly related to frequent back pain. This relationship may be explained by physiological limitations of co-ordination of postural, respiratory and continence functions of trunk muscles.

Science-policy in environmental and health risk assessment: if we cannot do without, can we do better?

How can empirical evidence of adverse effects from exposure to noxious agents, which is often incomplete and uncertain, be used most appropriately to protect human health? We examine several important questions on the best uses of empirical evidence in regulatory risk management decision-making raised by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)'s science-policy concerning uncertainty and variability in human health risk assessment. In our view, the US EPA (and other agencies that have adopted similar views of risk management) can often improve decision-making by decreasing reliance on default values and assumptions, particularly when causation is uncertain. This can be achieved by more fully exploiting decision-theoretic methods and criteria that explicitly account for uncertain, possibly conflicting scientific beliefs and that can be fully studied by advocates and adversaries of a policy choice, in administrative decision-making involving risk assessment. The substitution of decision-theoretic frameworks for default assumption-driven policies also allows stakeholder attitudes toward risk to be incorporated into policy debates, so that the public and risk managers can more explicitly identify the roles of risk-aversion or other attitudes toward risk and uncertainty in policy recommendations. Decision theory provides a sound scientific way explicitly to account for new knowledge and its effects on eventual policy choices. Although these improvements can complicate regulatory analyses, simplifying default assumptions can create substantial costs to society and can prematurely cut off consideration of new scientific insights (e.g., possible beneficial health effects from exposure to sufficiently low 'hormetic' doses of some agents). In many cases, the administrative burden of applying decision-analytic methods is likely to be more than offset by improved effectiveness of regulations in achieving desired goals. Because many foreign jurisdictions adopt US EPA reasoning and methods of risk analysis, it may be especially valuable to incorporate decision-theoretic principles that transcend local differences among jurisdictions.

Self-reported risk perception, mood and risk behaviour across the human menstrual cycle

Normally ovulating women exhibit a decline in risk behaviours that may lead to sexual assault during the fertile phase of the menstrual cycle, whereas women using the Pill do not. The current study tests two explanatory models: the mood and fertility models. Self-reported risk and non-risk behaviours, mood, and risk perception in sexual assault and physical risk domains were assessed by testing fiftyone women at menstruation and during their fertile period. Based on the decline in risk behaviours shown in past research, the fertility model predicts that normally ovulating women will display greater risk perception during the fertile phase of their cycle. The mood model predicts that at menstruation, when negative mood is highest, risk perception will be increased and risk behaviours correspondingly reduced. Risk behaviours did not vary over the cycle or between groups. Overall, results support the mood model. Negative mood was greater at menstruation and positive mood during the fertile period for both groups, rational risk perception was correspondingly greater at menstruation. The fertility model was not supported as risk perception ratings did not vary in the expected direction and ratings were not specific to the sexual assault domain.

Asset Price Instability and Policy Responses: The Legacy of Liberalisation

The debate about the dynamics and potential policy responses to asset inflation has intensified in recent years. Some analysts, notably Borio and Lowe, have called for 'subtle' changes to existing monetary targeting frameworks to try to deal with the problems of asset inflation and have attempted to developed indicators of financial vulnerability to aid this process. In contrast, this paper argues that the uncertainties involved in understanding financial market developments and their potential impact on the real economy are likely to remain too high to embolden policy makers. The political and institutional risks associated with policy errors are also significant. The fundamental premise that a liberalised financial system is based on 'efficient' market allocation cannot be overlooked. The corollary is that any serious attempt to stabilize financial market outcomes must involve at least a partial reversal of deregulation.

The Y2K Scare: Causes, costs and cures.

The worldwide scare over the 'Y2K bug result in the expenditure of hundreds of billions of dollars on Y2K compliance and conversion policies. Most of this can be seen, in retrospect, to have been unproductive or, at least, misdirected. In this paper, the technological and institutional factors leading to the adoption of these policies are considered, along with suggestions as to how such policy failures could be avoided in future.

Effects of cyanide on coral photosynthesis: implications for identifying the cause of coral bleaching and for assessing the environmental effects of cyanide fishing

Modulated chlorophyll fluorescence techniques were used to examine the effects of cyanide (NaCN) from cyanide fishing on photosynthesis of the symbiotic algae (zooxanthellae) located within the tissues of the zooxanthellate hard coral Plesiastrea versipora. Incubating corals for 3 h in a cyanide concentration of >10(-5) M NaCN under a saturating light intensity (photosynthetically active radiation [PAR] intensity of 250 mu mol quanta m(-2) s(-1)) caused a long-term decrease in the ratio of variable to maximal fluorescence (dark-adapted F-v/F-m). The effect of cyanide on dark-adapted F-v/F-m was Light dependent; thus F-v/F-m only decreased in corals exposed to 10(-4) M NaCN for 3 h under PAR of 250 mu mol quanta m(-2) s(-1). In corals where dark-adapted F-v/F-m was significantly lowered by cyanide exposure, we observed significant loss of zooxanthellae from the tissues. causing the corals to discolour (bleach). To further examine the light-dependent effect of cyanide and its relation to loss of zooxanthellae, corals were exposed to 10-4 M NaCN or seawater only (control), either in darkness or under 250 mu mol quanta m(-2) s(-1). ill significant decrease in dark-adapted F-v/F-m and loss of zooxanthellae only occurred in corals exposed to cyanide in the light. These results suggest cyanide causes the dissociation of the symbiosis (bleaching) by affecting photosynthesis of the zooxanthellae. Quenching analysis using the saturation-pulse technique revealed the development of high levels of non-photochemical quenching in cyanide-exposed coral. This result is consistent with the known property of cyanide as an inhibitor of the dark reactions of the Calvin cycle, specifically as an inhibitor of ribulose-1,5-bisphosphate carboxylase/oxygenase (Rubisco). Therefore, chronic photoinhibition and an impairment of photosynthesis of zooxanthellae provides an important 'signal' to examine the environmental effects of cyanide fishing during controlled releases in situ.

A model for predicting the future incidence of coronary heart disease within percentiles of coronary heart disease risk

Background We present a method (The CHD Prevention Model) for modelling the incidence of fatal and nonfatal coronary heart disease (CHD) within various CHD risk percentiles of an adult population. The model provides a relatively simple tool for lifetime risk prediction for subgroups within a population. It allows an estimation of the absolute primary CHD risk in different populations and will help identify subgroups of the adult population where primary CHD prevention is most appropriate and cost-effective. Methods The CHD risk distribution within the Australian population was modelled, based on the prevalence of CHD risk, individual estimates of integrated CHD risk, and current CHD mortality rates. Predicted incidence of first fatal and nonfatal myocardial infarction within CHD risk strata of the Australian population was determined. Results Approximately 25% of CHD deaths were predicted to occur amongst those in the top 10 percentiles of integrated CHD risk, regardless of age group or gender. It was found that while all causes survival did not differ markedly between percentiles of CHD risk before the ages of around 50-60, event-free survival began visibly to differ about 5 years earlier. Conclusions The CHD Prevention Model provides a means of predicting future CHD incidence amongst various strata of integrated CHD risk within an adult population. It has significant application both in individual risk counselling and in the identification of subgroups of the population where drug therapy to reduce CHD risk is most cost-effective. J Cardiovasc Risk 8:31-37 (C) 2001 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.

Zipping up transcription factors: Rational design of anti-Jun and anti-Fos peptides

Various members of the bZip and bHLH-Zip families of eukaryotic transcription factors, including Jun, Fos, and Myc, have been identified as oncoproteins; mutation or deregulated expression of these proteins leads to certain types of cancer. These proteins can only bind to their cognate DNA enhancer sites following homodimerization, or heterodimerization with another family member, via their leucine zipper domain. Thus, a novel anticancer strategy would be to inhibit dimerization of these proteins, thereby blocking their DNA binding and transactivation functions. In this paper we show that it is possible to rationally design leucine zipper peptides that bind with high affinity to the leucine zipper dimerization domains of c-Jun and c-Fos, thus preventing the formation of functional c-Jun homodimers and c-Jun:c-Fos heterodimers; we refer to such peptides as superzippers (SZs). In vivo, c-Jun:SZ and c-Fos:SZ heterodimers should be nonfunctional as they lack one of the two basic domains that are essential for DNA binding. While the transport of a peptidic agent into cells often poses a severe obstacle to its therapeutic use, we show that a 46-residue leucine zipper peptide can be transported into HeLa cells by coupling it to a 17-residue carrier peptide from the Antennapedia homeodomain, thus paving the way for detailed studies of the therapeutic potential of superzipper peptides.

An integrative approach for studying the etiology of alcoholism and other addictions

Studies of alcoholism etiology often focus on genetic or psy-chosocial approaches, but not both. Greater understanding of the etiology of alcohol, tobacco and other addictions will come from integration of these research traditions. A research approach is outlined to test three models for the etiology of addictions — behavioral undercontrol, pharmacologic vulnerability, negative affect regulation — addressing key questions including (i) mediators of genetic effects, (ii) genotype-environment correlation effects, (iii) genotype x environment interaction effects, (iv) the developmental unfolding of genetic and environmental effects, (v) subtyping including identification of distinct trajectories of substance involvement, (vi) identification of individual genes that contribute to risk, and (vii) the consequences of excessive use. By using coordinated research designs, including prospective assessment of adolescent twins and their siblings and parents; of adult substance dependent and control twins and their MZ and DZ cotwins, the spouses of these pairs, and their adolescent offspring; and of regular families; by selecting for gene-mapping approaches sibships screened for extreme concordance or discordance on quantitative indices of substance use; and by using experimental (drug challenge) as well as survey approaches, a number of key questions concerning addiction etiology can be addressed. We discuss complementary strengths and weaknesses of different sampling strategies, as well as methods to implement such an integrated approach illustrated for the study of alcoholism etiology. A coordinated program of twin and family studies will allow a comprehensive dissection of the interplay of genetic and environmental risk-factors in the etiology of alcoholism and other addictions.

Maintaining clearance in peritoneal dialysis

Numerous studies have now established that there is a strong association between small solute clearance and improved outcomes in peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients. Preservation of both renal and peritoneal clearances is therefore of paramount importance, although very few trials have satisfactorily addressed this critical issue. Observational studies have suggested that the groups most at risk of loss of residual renal function are women, non-whites, diabetic patients, patients with congestive cardiac failure, patients who experience frequent episodes of peritonitis and, possibly, patients treated with automated PD (APD). There have been no controlled trials of renoprotective therapies in PD patients, but reasonable strategies for preventing renal functional decline include avoidance of nephrotoxins and infection, maintenance of adequate blood pressure, abstinence from smoking and possibly administration of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors and/or calcium channel blockers. In contrast, peritoneal small solute removal can be maximized by augmenting fill volume, increasing exchange frequency and using either long-dwell continuous ambulatory PD (CAPD) or short-dwell (APD) therapies to suit individual patients' transport characteristics. Tidal PD may additionally increase solute clearance, although studies have reported conflicting findings. Preservation of membrane function may be achieved by minimizing episodes of peritonitis and avoiding hypertonic glucose exchanges. Newer peritoneal dialysates, such as icodextrin, amino acids, bicarbonate-buffered solutions and aldehyde-poor fluids, are more biocompatible in experimental models of PD, but their long-term clinical safety and efficacy have not yet been established by clinical trials. Moreover, no trials have demonstrated an independent effect of peritoneal clearance on patient outcomes. Further studies determining the relative value of renal and peritoneal clearances are therefore urgently required in order to optimize dialytic adequacy for PD patients.

Models involving two inverse Weibull distributions

In this paper, we look at three models (mixture, competing risk and multiplicative) involving two inverse Weibull distributions. We study the shapes of the density and failure-rate functions and discuss graphical methods to determine if a given data set can be modelled by one of these models. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Work-related stress and occupational therapy

Occupational stress and burnout have been studied extensively in the human services. It has been suggested that healthcare professionals in particular are at risk of stress owing to the caring nature of their work. Articles related to occupational therapy and work-related stress were reviewed in regard to practice in Australia, Canada, the United Kingdom, the United States and Sweden. Although the empirical literature is relatively weak for occupational therapy, it has been argued that occupational therapists in health care share risk factors with other healthcare professionals. These risk factors include repeated exposure to distress and difficult behaviour, prolonged interventions and uncertain outcome. Issues such as professional status, staffing issues and the nature of the profession have been identified as additional risk factors for occupational therapists. However, empirical studies that enable burnout rates of occupational therapists to be compared with those of related occupational groups suggest that this may not be the case. Occupational therapists may in fact be protected from some stress and burnout factors. Further research is recommended to clarify the nature of stress experienced by occupational therapists and to identify both risk and protective factors characteristic of the profession. Copyright © 2001 Whurr Publishers Ltd.