SPAnDX: a process-based population dynamics model to explore management and climate change impacts on an invasive alien plant, Acacia nilotica

This paper describes a process-based metapopulation dynamics and phenology model of prickly acacia, Acacia nilotica, an invasive alien species in Australia. The model, SPAnDX, describes the interactions between riparian and upland sub-populations of A. nilotica within livestock paddocks, including the effects of extrinsic factors such as temperature, soil moisture availability and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide. The model includes the effects of management events such as changing the livestock species or stocking rate, applying fire, and herbicide application. The predicted population behaviour of A. nilotica was sensitive to climate. Using 35 years daily weather datasets for five representative sites spanning the range of conditions that A. nilotica is found in Australia, the model predicted biomass levels that closely accord with expected values at each site. SPAnDX can be used as a decision-support tool in integrated weed management, and to explore the sensitivity of cultural management practices to climate change throughout the range of A. nilotica. The cohort-based DYMEX modelling package used to build and run SPAnDX provided several advantages over more traditional population modelling approaches (e.g. an appropriate specific formalism (discrete time, cohort-based, process-oriented), user-friendly graphical environment, extensible library of reusable components, and useful and flexible input/output support framework). (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

Speleothem U-series dating of semi-synchronous climate oscillations during the last deglaciation

Evidence for nearly synchronous climate oscillations during the last deglaciation has been found throughout the Northern Hemisphere but few records are based on independent time scales of calendar years. We present a rare uranium-series dated oxygen-carbon isotope record for a speleothem from Tangshan Cave, China, which demonstrates that abrupt deglacial climatic oscillations from 16 800 to 10 500 yr BP are semi-synchronous with those found in Greenland ice core records. Relatively rapid shifts in speleothem oxygen isotope ratios demonstrate that the intensity of the East Asian monsoon switched in parallel with the abrupt transitions separating the Bolling-Allerod, Younger Dryas, and pre-Boreal climatic reversals. However, the dated isotopic transitions appear to have lasted longer. Our results demonstrate the dominant role of atmospheric teleconnections in the rapid propagation of deglacial climatic signals on a hemispheric scale, and highlight the importance of U-series dated speleothems in the timing and characterization of abrupt climate change. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.