A landscape-scale test of the predictive ability of a spatially explicit model for population viability analysis

1. Although population viability analysis (PVA) is widely employed, forecasts from PVA models are rarely tested. This study in a fragmented forest in southern Australia contrasted field data on patch occupancy and abundance for the arboreal marsupial greater glider Petauroides volans with predictions from a generic spatially explicit PVA model. This work represents one of the first landscape-scale tests of its type. 2. Initially we contrasted field data from a set of eucalypt forest patches totalling 437 ha with a naive null model in which forecasts of patch occupancy were made, assuming no fragmentation effects and based simply on remnant area and measured densities derived from nearby unfragmented forest. The naive null model predicted an average total of approximately 170 greater gliders, considerably greater than the true count (n = 81). 3. Congruence was examined between field data and predictions from PVA under several metapopulation modelling scenarios. The metapopulation models performed better than the naive null model. Logistic regression showed highly significant positive relationships between predicted and actual patch occupancy for the four scenarios (P = 0.001-0.006). When the model-derived probability of patch occupancy was high (0.50-0.75, 0.75-1.00), there was greater congruence between actual patch occupancy and the predicted probability of occupancy. 4. For many patches, probability distribution functions indicated that model predictions for animal abundance in a given patch were not outside those expected by chance. However, for some patches the model either substantially over-predicted or under-predicted actual abundance. Some important processes, such as inter-patch dispersal, that influence the distribution and abundance of the greater glider may not have been adequately modelled. 5. Additional landscape-scale tests of PVA models, on a wider range of species, are required to assess further predictions made using these tools. This will help determine those taxa for which predictions are and are not accurate and give insights for improving models for applied conservation management.

A method for setting the size of plant conservation target areas

Realistic time frames in which management decisions are made often preclude the completion of the detailed analyses necessary for conservation planning. Under these circumstances, efficient alternatives may assist in approximating the results of more thorough studies that require extensive resources and time. We outline a set of concepts and formulas that may be used in lieu of detailed population viability analyses and habitat modeling exercises to estimate the protected areas required to provide desirable conservation outcomes for a suite of threatened plant species. We used expert judgment of parameters and assessment of a population size that results in a specified quasiextinction risk based on simple dynamic models The area required to support a population of this size is adjusted to take into account deterministic and stochastic human influences, including small-scale disturbance deterministic trends such as habitat loss, and changes in population density through processes such as predation and competition. We set targets for different disturbance regimes and geographic regions. We applied our methods to Banksia cuneata, Boronia keysii, and Parsonsia dorrigoensis, resulting in target areas for conservation of 1102, 733, and 1084 ha, respectively. These results provide guidance on target areas and priorities for conservation strategies.

Dating the dreaming? Creation of myths and rituals for mounds along the northern Australian coastline

Shell mounds ceased to be built in many parts of coastal northern Australia about 800-600 years ago. They are the subject of stories told by Aboriginal people and some have been incorporated in ritual and political activities during the last 150 ears. These understandings emerged only after termination of the economic and environmental system that created them, 800-600 years ago, in a number of widely separated coastal regions, Modern stories and treatments of these mounds by Aboriginal people concern modern or near-modern practices. Modern views of the mounds, their mythological and ritual associations, may be explained by reference to the socioeconomic transitions seen in the archaeological record; but the recent cultural, social and symbolic statements about these places cannot inform us of the process or ideology concerned with the formation of the mounds. Many Aboriginal communities over the last half a millennium actively,formed understandings of new landscapes and systems of land use. Attempts to impose historic ideologies and cosmologies on earlier times fail to acknowledge the magnitude and rate of economic and ideological change on the tropical coastline of Australia.

The effects of air pollution on hospitalizations for cardiovascular disease in elderly people in Australian and New Zealand cities

OBJECTIVE: The goal of this study was to estimate the associations between outdoor air pollution and cardiovascular hospital admissions for the elderly. DESIGN: Associations were assessed using the case-crossover method for seven cities: Auckland and Christchurch, New Zealand; and Brisbane, Canberra, Melbourne, Perth, and Sydney Australia. Results were combined across cities using a random-effects meta-analysis and stratified for two adult age groups: 15-64 years and >= 65 years of age (elderly). Pollutants considered were nitrogen dioxide, carbon monoxide, daily measures of particulate matter (PM) and ozone. Where multiple pollutant associations were found, a matched case-control analysis was used to identify the most consistent association. RESULTS: In the elderly, all pollutants except 03 were significantly associated with five categories or cardiovascular disease admissions. No associations were found for arrhythmia and stroke. For a 0.9-ppm increase in CO, there were significant increases in elderly hospital admissions for total cardiovascular disease (2.2%), all cardiac disease (2.8%), cardiac failure (6.0%), ischemic heart disease (2.3%), and myocardial infarction (2.9%). There was some heterogeneity between cities, possibly due to differences in humidity and the percentage of elderly people. In matched analyses, CO had the most consistent association. CONCLUSIONS. The results suggest that air pollution arising from common emission sources for CO, NO2, and PM (e.g., motor vehicle exhausts) has significant associations with adult cardiovascular hospital admissions, especially in the elderly, at air pollution concentrations below normal health guidelines. RELEVANCE TO CLINICAL AND PROFESSIONAL PRACTICE: Elderly populations in Australia need to be protected from air pollution arising from outdoor sources to reduce cardiovascular disease.

Synthesis of alpha-aspartyl-containing cyclic peptides

alpha-Aspartyl-containing cyclic pentapeptides were synthesised in high yields using a strategy that maintained fluorenylmethyl protection on the aspartic acid side chain during chain assembly, resin cleavage and cyclisation of the linear precursors. Tetra-n-butylammonium fluoride treatment of the fluorenylmethyl-protected cyclic peptides catalysed imide formation, whereas piperidine-induced deprotection resulted in good yields of the target cyclic peptides.

Thomasius on the toleration of heresy

Over two thousand years the Christian Church identified a wider range and a greater number of heresies than most other religions and, when secular authorities did not protected the heretics, took drastic measures to persuade the heretic to recant and to extirpate the false doctrine. Heresy, of course, is a word like a box [End Page 201] that at different times may hold many different ideas and so some articles are dealing with definitions and identifications that are not the same. The editors suggest that the articles show a profound change in culture in the eighteenth century which means that present day scholars can barely imagine the mind-set that produced medieval attitudes to heresy. This is the task some of the authors have set themselves while others seek to explain how the change came about as part of the historical search for truth.

Balancing biodiversity with land clearing

Siepen and McAlpine discuss ways for farmers to protect the natural resources of more than 90% of Australia. They propose that, before clearing trees for farmland development, farmers weigh up the significance of any vegetation to the native fauna as well as its value for catchment management and salinity control.

Heritability and gene-environment interactions for melanocytic nevus density examined in a U.K. adolescent twin study

Risk factors for melanoma include environmental (particularly ultraviolet exposure) and genetic factors. In rare families, susceptibility to melanoma is determined by high penetrance mutations in the genes CDKN2A or CDK4, with more common, less penetrant genes also postulated. A further, potent risk factor for melanoma is the presence of large numbers of melanocytic nevi so that genes controlling nevus phenotype could be such melanoma susceptibility genes. A large Australian study involving twins aged 12 y of predominantly U.K. ancestry showed strong evidence for genetic influence on nevus number and density. We carried out essentially the same study in the U.K. to gain insight into gene-environment interactions for nevi. One hundred and three monozygous (MZ) and 118 dizygous (DZ) twin pairs aged 10-18 y were examined in Yorkshire and Surrey, U.K. Nevus counts were, on average, higher in boys (mean = 98.6) than girls (83.8) (p = 0.009) and higher in Australia (110.4) than in the U.K. (79.2, adjusted to age 12 y, p < 0.0001), and nevus densities were higher on sun-exposed sites (92 per m(2)) than sun-protected sites (58 per m(2)) (p < 0.0001). Correlations in sex and age adjusted nevus density were higher in MZ pairs (0.94, 95% CI 0.92-0.96) than in DZ pairs (0.61, 95%CI 0.49-0.72), were notably similar to those of the Australian study (MZ = 0.94, DZ = 0.60), and were consistent with high heritability (65% in the U.K., 68% in Australia). We conclude that emergence of nevi in adolescents is under strong genetic control, whereas environmental exposures affect the mean number of nevi.