On the robustness of short-term interest rate models

This paper investigates the robustness of a range of short–term interest rate models. We examine the robustness of these models over different data sets, time periods, sampling frequencies, and estimation techniques. We examine a range of popular one–factor models that allow the conditional mean (drift) and conditional variance (diffusion) to be functions of the current short rate. We find that parameter estimates are highly sensitive to all of these factors in the eight countries that we examine. Since parameter estimates are not robust, these models should be used with caution in practice.

An EM-based Semi-Parametric Mixture Model Approach to the Regression Analysis of Competing-Risks Data

We consider a mixture model approach to the regression analysis of competing-risks data. Attention is focused on inference concerning the effects of factors on both the probability of occurrence and the hazard rate conditional on each of the failure types. These two quantities are specified in the mixture model using the logistic model and the proportional hazards model, respectively. We propose a semi-parametric mixture method to estimate the logistic and regression coefficients jointly, whereby the component-baseline hazard functions are completely unspecified. Estimation is based on maximum likelihood on the basis of the full likelihood, implemented via an expectation-conditional maximization (ECM) algorithm. Simulation studies are performed to compare the performance of the proposed semi-parametric method with a fully parametric mixture approach. The results show that when the component-baseline hazard is monotonic increasing, the semi-parametric and fully parametric mixture approaches are comparable for mildly and moderately censored samples. When the component-baseline hazard is not monotonic increasing, the semi-parametric method consistently provides less biased estimates than a fully parametric approach and is comparable in efficiency in the estimation of the parameters for all levels of censoring. The methods are illustrated using a real data set of prostate cancer patients treated with different dosages of the drug diethylstilbestrol. Copyright (C) 2003 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

CRIM1 Regulates the Rate of Processing and Delivery of Bone Morphogenetic Proteins to the Cell Surface

The Crim1 gene is predicted to encode a transmembrane protein containing six von Willebrand-like cysteine-rich repeats (CRRs) similar to those in the BMP-binding antagonist Chordin (Chrd). In this study, we verify that CRIM1 is a glycosylated, Type I transmembrane protein and demonstrate that the extracellular CRR-containing domain can also be secreted, presumably via processing at the membrane. We have previously demonstrated Crim1 expression at sites consistent with an interaction with bone morphogenetic proteins (BMPs). Here we show that CRIM1 can interact with both BMP4 and BMP7 via the CRR-containing portion of the protein and in so doing acts as an antagonist in three ways. CRIM1 binding of BMP4 and -7 occurs when these proteins are co-expressed within the Golgi compartment of the cell and leads to (i) a reduction in the production and processing of preprotein to mature BMP, (ii) tethering of pre-BMP to the cell surface, and (iii) an effective reduction in the secretion of mature BMP. Functional antagonism was verified by examining the effect of coexpression of CRIM1 and BMP4 on metanephric explant culture. The presence of CRIM1 reduced the effective BMP4 concentration of the media, thereby acting as a BMP4 antagonist. Hence, CRIM1 modulates BMP activity by affecting its processing and delivery to the cell surface

Exceptionally high-rate nitrification in sequencing batch reactors treating high ammonia landfill leachate

The nitrogen removal capacity of a suspended culture system treating mature landfill leachate was investigated. Leachate containing high ammonium levels of 300-900 mg N/L was nitrified in a bench scale sequencing batch reactor. Leachate from four different landfills was treated over a two year period for the removal of nitrogen. In this time, a highly specific nitrifying culture was attained that delivered exceptionally high rates of ammonia removal. No sludge was wasted from the system to increase the throughput and up to 13 g/L of MLSS was obtained. Settleability of the purely nitrifying biomass was excellent with SVI less than 40 mL/g, even at the high sludge concentrations. Nitrification rates up to 246 mg NI(L h) (5.91 g N/(L d)) and specific nitrification rates of 36 mg N/(gVSS h) (880 mg N/(gVSS d)) were obtained. The loading to the system at this time allowed complete nitrification of the leachate with a hydraulic retention time of only 5 hours. Following these successful treatability studies, a full-scale plant was designed and built at one of the landfills investigated.

Fast, scalable master equation solution algorithms. III. Direct time propagation accelerated by a diffusion approximation preconditioned iterative solver

In this paper we propose a novel fast and linearly scalable method for solving master equations arising in the context of gas-phase reactive systems, based on an existent stiff ordinary differential equation integrator. The required solution of a linear system involving the Jacobian matrix is achieved using the GMRES iteration preconditioned using the diffusion approximation to the master equation. In this way we avoid the cubic scaling of traditional master equation solution methods and maintain the low temperature robustness of numerical integration. The method is tested using a master equation modelling the formation of propargyl from the reaction of singlet methylene with acetylene, proceeding through long lived isomerizing intermediates. (C) 2003 American Institute of Physics.

Development of a quality use of medicines coding system to rate clinical pharmacists' medication review recommendations

Objective: To develop a 'quality use of medicines' coding system for the assessment of pharmacists' medication reviews and to apply it to an appropriate cohort. Method: A 'quality use of medicines' coding system was developed based on findings in the literature. These codes were then applied to 216 (111 intervention, 105 control) veterans' medication profiles by an independent clinical pharmacist who was supported by a clinical pharmacologist with the aim to assess the appropriateness of pharmacy interventions. The profiles were provided for veterans participating in a randomised, controlled trial in private hospitals evaluating the effect of medication review and discharge counselling. The reliability of the coding was tested by two independent clinical pharmacists in a random sample of 23 veterans from the study population. Main outcome measure: Interrater reliability was assessed by applying Cohen's kappa score on aggregated codes. Results: The coding system based on the literature consisted of 19 codes. The results from the three clinical pharmacists suggested that the original coding system had two major problems: (a) a lack of discrimination for certain recommendations e. g. adverse drug reactions, toxicity and mortality may be seen as variations in degree of a single effect and (b) certain codes e. g. essential therapy were in low prevalence. The interrater reliability for an aggregation of all codes into positive, negative and clinically non-significant codes ranged from 0.49-0.58 (good to fair). The interrater reliability increased to 0.72-0.79 (excellent) when all negative codes were excluded. Analysis of the sample of 216 profiles showed that the most prevalent recommendations from the clinical pharmacists were a positive impact in reducing adverse responses (31.9%), an improvement in good clinical pharmacy practice (25.5%) and a positive impact in reducing drug toxicity (11.1%). Most medications were assigned the clinically non-significant code (96.6%). In fact, the interventions led to a statistically significant difference in pharmacist recommendations in the categories; adverse response, toxicity and good clinical pharmacy practice measured by the quality use of medicine coding system. Conclusion: It was possible to use the quality use of medicine coding system to rate the quality and potential health impact of pharmacists' medication reviews, and the system did pick up differences between intervention and control patients. The interrater reliability for the summarised coding system was fair, but a larger sample of medication regimens is needed to assess the non-summarised quality use of medicines coding system.

Effects of speaking rate on EMA-derived lingual kinematics: a preliminary investigation

Electromagnetic articulography (EMA) was used to investigate how tongue movement characteristics (i.e., velocity, acceleration, duration, distance) change with. or indeed affect, increased rates of speech. Eight young adult males repeated /ta/ and /ka/ syllables first at a moderate rate that had been modelled at three syllables per second, and then 'as fast as possible'. Distance travelled by the tongue appeared to be the principal lingual kinematic feature manipulated by the group of speakers in producing increased syllable repetition rates, with velocity found to increase, decrease or remain unchanged. Acceleration remained unchanged, except in the case of increased velocity. One participant formed an exception in terms of manipulating distance by exhibiting marginally increased lingual velocities rather than distance changes. This preliminary study serves to direct future EMA-based studies of speech rate control as to the speech tasks that should be employed and the possible underlying anatomical and acoustic bases or constraints that could possibly influence the kinematic strategies employed to increase speech rate.

High rate of detection of primary aldosteronism, including surgically treatable forms, after 'non-selective' screening of hypertensive patients

Background Wide testing of the aldosterone: renin ratio among hypertensive individuals has revealed primary aldosteronism to be common, with most patients normokalaemic. Some investigators, however, have reported aldosterone-producing adenoma to be rare among patients so detected. Objective To test the hypothesis that differences among reported studies in the rate of detection of aldosterone-producing adenoma (as opposed to bilateral adrenal hyperplasia) reflect differences in the procedures used for diagnosis of primary aldosteronism, and the methods used to identify aldosterone-producing adenomas. Methods In the newly established Princess Alexandra Hospital Hypertension Unit (PAHHU), we used procedures developed by Greenslopes Hospital Hypertension Unit (which reports that more than 30% of patients with primary aldosteronism have aldosterone-producing adenomas) to diagnose primary aldosteronism and determine the subtype. All patients with an increased aldosterone: renin ratio (measured after correction for hypokalaemia and while the patient was not receiving interfering medications) underwent fludrocortisone suppression testing to confirm or exclude primary aldosteronism; if they were positive, they underwent genetic testing to exclude glucocorticoid-remediable aldosteronism before adrenal venous sampling was used to differentiate lateralizing from bilateral primary aldosteronism. Results This approach allowed PAHHU to diagnose, within 2 years, 54 patients [only seven (13%) hypokalaemic] with primary aldosteronism. All tested negative for glucocorticoid-remediable aldosteronism. Aldosterone production was lateralized to one adrenal in 15 patients (31%; only six hypokalaemic) and was bilateral in 34 (69%; all normokalaemic) of 49 patients who underwent adrenal venous sampling. Among patients with lateralizing adrenal hyperplasia, computed tomography revealed an ipsilateral mass in only six and a contralateral lesion in one. Fourteen patients underwent unilateral adrenalectomy, which cured the hypertension in seven and improved it in the remainder. In patients with bilateral primary aldlosteronism, hypertension responded to spironolactone (112.5-50 mg/ day) or amiloride (2.5-10 mg/day). Conclusion When performed with careful regard to confounding factors, measurement of the aldosterone: renin ratio in all hypertensive individuals, followed by fludrocortisone suppression testing to confirm or exclude primary aldosteronism and adrenal venous sampling to determine the subtype, can result in the detection of significant numbers of patients with specifically treatable or potentially curable hypertension. (C) 2003 Lippincott Williams Wilkins.

Usefulness of B-type natriuretic peptide in hypertensive patients with exertional dyspnea and normal left ventricular ejection fraction and correlation with new echocardiographic indexes of systolic and diastolic function

B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) levels increase in systolic heart failure (HF). However, the value of BNP in hypertensive patients with suspected diastolic HF (symptoms suggestive of HF but normal ejection fraction) and its relation to myocardial function in these patients is unclear. We prospectively studied 72 ambulatory hypertensive subjects (40 women, mean age 58 +/- 8 years) with exertional dyspnea and ejection fraction greater than or equal to50%. Diastolic function was evaluated with transmitral and pulmonary venous Doppler, mitral annular velocities (pulsed-wave tissue Doppler), and flow propagation velocity (color M-mode). Systolic function was assessed with strain and strain rate derived from color tissue Doppler imaging. BNP was related to myocardial function and the presence or absence of global diastolic dysfunction. By conventional Doppler criteria, 34 patients had normal left ventricular diastolic function and 38 had isolated diastolic dysfunction. BNP values were higher in patients with diastolic dysfunction (46 +/- 48 vs 20 +/- 20 pg/ml, p = 0.004) and were related independently to blood pressure, systolic strain rate, left atrial function (p < 0.01 for all), and age (p = 0.015). Patients with diastolic dysfunction and pseudonormal filling had higher BNP levels compared with impaired relaxation (89 +/- 47 vs 35 +/- 42 pg/ml, p = 0.001). However, 79% of patients with diastolic dysfunction had BNP levels within the normal range. We conclude that in ambulatory hypertensive patients with symptoms suggestive of mild HF and normal ejection fraction, BNP is related to atrial and ventricular systolic parameters, blood pressure, and age. Although elevated in the presence of diastolic dysfunction, the BNP level mostly is in the normal range and, therefore, has limited diagnostic value in stable patients with suspected diastolic HF. (C) 2003 by Excerpta Medica, Inc.

The effect of pretreatments on the drying rate and quality of dried bananas

The effects that four pretreatments (blanching, chilling, freezing, and combined blanching and freezing), used prior to drying, had on the drying rate and quality of bananas were investigated. An untreated sample was used as a control. The bananas were dried at 50 degreesC in a heat pump dehumidifier dryer, using an air velocity of 3.1 m s(-1), until a final moisture content of approximately 25% dry weight basis was attained. While the initial drying rate was highest for the blanched treatment, the two pretreatments involving freezing resulted in the shortest drying times. The blanched sample was most preferred in terms of colour while the frozen samples exhibited extensive browning. The texture and flavour was significantly (P < 0.05) reduced in all samples that involved blanching and/or freezing.