A spectral-based cusum test of evolutionary change

We develop a test of evolutionary change that incorporates a null hypothesis of homogeneity, which encompasses time invariance in the variance and autocovariance structure of residuals from estimated econometric relationships. The test framework is based on examining whether shifts in spectral decomposition between two frames of data are significant. Rejection of the null hypothesis will point not only to weak nonstationarity but to shifts in the structure of the second-order moments of the limiting distribution of the random process. This would indicate that the second-order properties of any underlying attractor set has changed in a statistically significant way, pointing to the presence of evolutionary change. A demonstration of the test's applicability to a real-world macroeconomic problem is accomplished by applying the test to the Australian Building Society Deposits (ABSD) model.

Spatial and temporal variation in distribution of mangroves in Moreton Bay, subtropical Australia: a comparison of pattern metrics and change detection analyses based on aerial photographs

An assessment of the changes in the distribution and extent of mangroves within Moreton Bay, southeast Queensland, Australia, was carried out. Two assessment methods were evaluated: spatial and temporal pattern metrics analysis, and change detection analysis. Currently, about 15,000 ha of mangroves are present in Moreton Bay. These mangroves are important ecosystems, but are subject to disturbance from a number of sources. Over the past 25 years, there has been a loss of more than 3800 ha, as a result of natural losses and mangrove clearing (e.g. for urban and industrial development, agriculture and aquaculture). However, areas of new mangroves have become established over the same time period, offsetting these losses to create a net loss of about 200 ha. These new mangroves have mainly appeared in the southern bay region and the bay islands, particularly on the landward edge of existing mangroves. In addition, spatial patterns and species composition of mangrove patches have changed. The pattern metrics analysis provided an overview of mangrove distribution and change in the form of single metric values, while the change detection analysis gave a more detailed and spatially explicit description of change. An analysis of the effects of spatial scales on the pattern metrics indicated that they were relatively insensitive to scale at spatial resolutions less than 50 m, but that most metrics became sensitive at coarser resolutions, a finding which has implications for mapping of mangroves based on remotely sensed data. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Late Quaternary Milankovitch-scale climatic change and variability and its impact on monsoonal Australasia

Four pollen and charcoal records derived from marine cores around the northern perimeter of Australia are examined to provide a regional picture of patterns, causes and impacts of climate change over the last 100-300 ka. The availability of radiocarbon dates and oxygen isotope records for the cores provides primary chronological control. Spectral analysis of components of these records demonstrates an overall importance of Milankovitch frequencies with clear glacial-interglacial cyclicity dominated by variation in precipitation. In addition, a number of pollen taxa, as well as charcoal particles, exhibit a 30 ka frequency that is considered, from its relationship with biomass burning and with results of past modelling, to reflect changes in the intensity of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability. Pollen components of all records show a decline, frequently stepwise, in more fire-sensitive vegetation and its replacement with more fire-tolerant vegetation. There is some evidence that this trend is linked to an onset or general increase in ENSO activity and perhaps also to variation in monsoon activity dating from about 300 ka BP that was caused by changes to oceanic circulation within the Indonesian region. The trend may have accelerated within the last 45 ka due to burning by indigenous people. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ecosystem process models at multiple scales for mapping tropical forest productivity

Quantifying mass and energy exchanges within tropical forests is essential for understanding their role in the global carbon budget and how they will respond to perturbations in climate. This study reviews ecosystem process models designed to predict the growth and productivity of temperate and tropical forest ecosystems. Temperate forest models were included because of the minimal number of tropical forest models. The review provides a multiscale assessment enabling potential users to select a model suited to the scale and type of information they require in tropical forests. Process models are reviewed in relation to their input and output parameters, minimum spatial and temporal units of operation, maximum spatial extent and time period of application for each organization level of modelling. Organizational levels included leaf-tree, plot-stand, regional and ecosystem levels, with model complexity decreasing as the time-step and spatial extent of model operation increases. All ecosystem models are simplified versions of reality and are typically aspatial. Remotely sensed data sets and derived products may be used to initialize, drive and validate ecosystem process models. At the simplest level, remotely sensed data are used to delimit location, extent and changes over time of vegetation communities. At a more advanced level, remotely sensed data products have been used to estimate key structural and biophysical properties associated with ecosystem processes in tropical and temperate forests. Combining ecological models and image data enables the development of carbon accounting systems that will contribute to understanding greenhouse gas budgets at biome and global scales.

History of vegetation and habitat change in the Austral-Asian region

Over 1000 marine and terrestrial pollen diagrams and Some hundreds of vertebrate faunal sequences have been studied in the Austral-Asian region bisected by the PEPII transect, from the Russian arctic extending south through east Asia, Indochina, southern Asia, insular Southeast Asia (Sunda), Melanesia, Australasia (Sahul) and the western south Pacific. The majority of these records are Holocene but sufficient data exist to allow the reconstruction of the changing biomes over at least the past 200,000 years. The PEPII transect is free of the effects of large northern ice caps yet exhibits vegetational change in glacial cycles of a similar scale to North America. Major processes that can be discerned are the response of tropical forests in both lowlands and uplands to glacial cycles, the expansion of humid vegetation at the Pleistocene-Holocene transition and the change in faunal and vegetational controls as humans occupy the region. There is evidence for major changes in the intensity of monsoon and El Nino-Southern oscillation variability both on glacial-interglacial and longer time scales with much of the region experiencing a long-term trend towards more variable and/or drier climatic conditions. Temperature variation is most marked in high latitudes and high altitudes with precipitation providing the major climate control in lower latitude, lowland areas. At least some boundary shifts may be the response of vegetation to changing CO2 levels in the atmosphere. Numerous questions of detail remain, however, and current resolution is too coarse to examine the degree of synchroneity of millennial scale change along the transect. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved.

Mapping cortical change in Alzheimer's disease, brain development, and schizophrenia

This paper describes algorithms that can identify patterns of brain structure and function associated with Alzheimer's disease, schizophrenia, normal aging, and abnormal brain development based on imaging data collected in large human populations. Extraordinary information can be discovered with these techniques: dynamic brain maps reveal how the brain grows in childhood, how it changes in disease, and how it responds to medication. Genetic brain maps can reveal genetic influences on brain structure, shedding light on the nature-nurture debate, and the mechanisms underlying inherited neurobehavioral disorders. Recently, we created time-lapse movies of brain structure for a variety of diseases. These identify complex, shifting patterns of brain structural deficits, revealing where, and at what rate, the path of brain deterioration in illness deviates from normal. Statistical criteria can then identify situations in which these changes are abnormally accelerated, or when medication or other interventions slow them. In this paper, we focus on describing our approaches to map structural changes in the cortex. These methods have already been used to reveal the profile of brain anomalies in studies of dementia, epilepsy, depression, childhood and adult-onset schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, attention-deficit/ hyperactivity disorder, fetal alcohol syndrome, Tourette syndrome, Williams syndrome, and in methamphetamine abusers. Specifically, we describe an image analysis pipeline known as cortical pattern matching that helps compare and pool cortical data over time and across subjects. Statistics are then defined to identify brain structural differences between groups, including localized alterations in cortical thickness, gray matter density (GMD), and asymmetries in cortical organization. Subtle features, not seen in individual brain scans, often emerge when population-based brain data are averaged in this way. Illustrative examples are presented to show the profound effects of development and various diseases on the human cortex. Dynamically spreading waves of gray matter loss are tracked in dementia and schizophrenia, and these sequences are related to normally occurring changes in healthy subjects of various ages. (C) 2004 Published by Elsevier Inc.

Association of tumor necrosis factor-alpha polymorphisms and ozone-induced change in lung function

Ozone is a major air pollutant with adverse health effects which exhibit marked inter-individual variability. In mice, regions of genetic linkage with ozone-induced lung injury include the tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF), lymphotoxin-alpha (LTA), Toll-like receptor 4 (TLR4), superoxide dismutase (SOD2), and glutathione peroxidase (GPX1) genes. We genotyped polymorphisms in these genes in 51 individuals who had undergone ozone challenge. Mean change in FEV1 with ozone challenge, as a percentage of baseline, was -3% in TNF -308G/A or A/A individuals, compared with -9% in G/G individuals (p = 0.024). When considering TNF haplotypes, the smallest change in FEV1 with ozone exposure was associated with the TNF haplotype comprising LTA +252G/TNF -1031T/TNF -308A/TNF -238G. This association remained statistically significant after correction for age, sex, disease, and ozone concentration (p = 0.047). SOD2 or GPX1 genotypes were not associated with lung function, and the TLR4 polymorphism was too infrequent to analyze. The results of this study support TNF as a genetic factor for susceptibility to ozone-induced changes in lung function in humans, and has potential implications for stratifying health risks of air pollution.

Employee group memberships and organisational communication during organisational change

The preset study adopted an intergroup approach to information sharing and communication in three organisational samples during change. In Study 1, employees from a public hospital (N = 142) completed a survey measuring perceptions of organisational communication and strength of identification with the work unit and the organisation as a whole. Consistent with predictions, team members rated communication from double ingroup members (same work unit/same occupational group) more favourably than communication from partial group members (same work unit/different occupational group). Also as predicted, work unit identification was related to favourable ratings of work unit communication across occupational groups, whereas occupational identification was related to favourable ratings of work unit communication within occupational groups. In Study 2, strength of identification with three organisational groups was associated with positive ratings of communication among employees from the same public hospital (N = 189) and a military organisation (N = 2119). Based on these results, intergroup strategies for the management of information sharing and organisational communication during change are discussed.