Forecasting regional crop production using SOI phases: an example for the Australian peanut industry

Using peanuts as an example, a generic methodology is presented to forward-estimate regional crop production and associated climatic risks based on phases of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Yield fluctuations caused by a highly variable rainfall environment are of concern to peanut processing and marketing bodies. The industry could profitably use forecasts of likely production to adjust their operations strategically. Significant, physically based lag-relationships exist between an index of ocean/atmosphere El Nino/Southern Oscillation phenomenon and future rainfall in Australia and elsewhere. Combining knowledge of SOI phases in November and December with output from a dynamic simulation model allows the derivation of yield probability distributions based on historic rainfall data. This information is available shortly after planting a crop and at least 3-5 months prior to harvest. The study shows that in years when the November-December SOI phase is positive there is an 80% chance of exceeding average district yields. Conversely, in years when the November-December SOI phase is either negative or rapidly falling there is only a 5% chance of exceeding average district yields, but a 95% chance of below average yields. This information allows the industry to adjust strategically for the expected volume of production. The study shows that simulation models can enhance SOI signals contained in rainfall distributions by discriminating between useful and damaging rainfall events. The methodology can be applied to other industries and regions.

Photodegradation of irinotecan (CPT-11) in aqueous solutions: Identification of fluorescent products and influence of solution composition

The photodegradation of irinotecan (CPT-11), the semisynthetic derivative of the antitumor alkaloid 20(S)-camptothecin, has been investigated. The drug was exposed to laboratory light for up to 5 days in 0.9% saline solution (pH 8.5). Five significant photodegradation products were observed and a high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) assay was employed to isolate them from CPT-11 using gradient conditions. The structures were elucidated by nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy and tandem mass spectrometry and shown to be the result of extensive modifications of the lactone ring of CPT-11. Three of the compounds were found to belong to the mappicine group of alkaloids. In addition, the effect of light on the stability of CPT-11 in aqueous solutions and biological fluids was also assessed, Potassium phosphate buffers (0.05 M, pH 5.0-8.2) and saline, plasma, urine, and bile solutions containing 20 mu M CPT-11 were equilibrated in the dark for 24 h before being exposed to laboratory light for up to 171 h at ambient temperature. Four of the five identified photodegradation products were observed and quantitated by isocratic HPLC, using a different detection mode (fluorescence) than the one used for gradient elution, In general, CPT-11 was found to be unstable under neutral and alkaline conditions for all solutions investigated, with the exception of bile. We conclude that CPT-11 is photolabile and that care should be taken to protect samples, particularly those intended for the isolation and identification of novel metabolites of CPT-11.