Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses for burden of disease and risk factor estimates

Epidemiological studies report confidence or uncertainty intervals around their estimates. Estimates of the burden of diseases and risk factors are subject to a broader range of uncertainty because of the combination of multiple data sources and value choices. Sensitivity analysis can be used to examine the effects of social values that have been incorporated into the design of the disability–adjusted life year (DALY). Age weight, where a year of healthy life lived at one age is valued differently from at another age, is the most controversial value built into the DALY. The discount rate, which addresses the difference in value of current versus future health benefits, also has been criticized. The distribution of the global disease burden and rankings of various conditions are largely insensitive to alternate assumptions about the discount rate and age weighting. The major effects of discounting and age weighting are to enhance the importance of neuropsychiatric conditions and sexually transmitted infections. The Global Burden of Disease study also has been criticized for estimating mortality and disease burden for regions using incomplete and uncertain data. Including uncertain results, with uncertainty quantified to the extent possible, is preferable, however, to leaving blank cells in tables intended to provide policy makers with an overall assessment of burden of disease. No estimate is generally interpreted as no problem. Greater investment in getting the descriptive epidemiology of diseases and injuries correct in poor countries will do vastly more to reduce uncertainty in disease burden assessments than a philosophical debate about the appropriateness of social value

Human settlements: Australia state of the environment report, 2001

Australia’s transition to the 21st century has been marked by an extended period of economic prosperity unmatched for several decades, but one in which a series of question marks are being raised in three principal areas: in relation to the environment, the social well-being of the population, and the future path of economic development. The first concern, which is of primary interest in this report, relates to the physical environment of cities and their surrounding regions, and the range of pressures exerted by population and human activity. The report begins by noting the increasing divergence of the prime indicator of national economic performance—gross domestic product (GDP)—from the Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI). GPI is a new experimental measure of sustainable development that accommodates factors currently unaccounted for in GDP, such as income distribution, value of household work, cost of unemployment, and various other social and environmental costs. The divergence of these two indicators in recent decades suggests that Australia’s growth has been heavily dependent on the draw-down of the nation’s stocks of capital assets (its infrastructure), its human and social capital, and its natural capital (Hamilton 1997).

Mutation analysis of the CDKN2A promoter in Australian melanoma families

Approximately 50% of all melanoma families worldwide show linkage to 9p21-22, but only about half of these have been shown to contain germ line CDKN2A mutations. It has been hypothesized that a proportion of these families carry mutations in the noncoding regions of CDKN2A. Several Canadian families have been reported to carry a mutation in the 5' UTR, at position -34 relative to the start site, which gives rise to a novel AUG translation initiation codon that markedly decreases translation from the wild-type AUG (Liu et al., 1999). Haplotype sharing in these Canadian families suggested that this mutation is of British origin. We sequenced 1,327 base pairs (bp) of CDKN2A, making up 1,116 bp of the 5' UTR and promoter, all of exon 1, and 61 bp of intron 1, in at least one melanoma case from 110 Australian families with three or more affected members known not to carry mutations within the p16 coding region. In addition, 431 bp upstream of the start codon was sequenced in an additional 253 affected probands from two-case melanoma families for which the CDKN2A mutation status was unknown. Several known polymorphisms at positions -33, -191, -493, and -735 were detected, in addition to four novel variants at positions 120, -252, -347, and -981 relative to the start codon. One of the probands from a two-case family was found to have the previously reported Q50R mutation. No family member was found to carry the mutation at position -34 or any other disease-associated mutation. For further investigation of noncoding CDKN2A mutations that may affect transcription, allele-specific expression analysis was carried out in 31 of the families with at least three affected members who showed either complete or indeterminate 9p haplotype sharing without CDKN2A exonic mutations. Reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction and automated sequencing showed expression of both CDKN2A alleles in all family members tested. The lack of CDKN2A promoter mutations and the absence of transcriptional silencing in the germ line of this cohort of families suggest that mutations in the promoter and 5' UTR play a very limited role in melanoma predisposition. (C) 2001 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Skin flaps

Skin flaps are useful where a lesion cannot be removed by simple excision without excessive tension being placed on the wound or surrounding tissues may be distorted. The H-flap and the island advancement flap are described. (non-author abstract)

The cystine knot motif in toxins and implications for drug design

The cystine knot structural motif is present in peptides and proteins from a variety of species, including fungi, plants, marine molluscs. insects and spiders. It comprises an embedded ring formed by two disulfide bonds and their connecting backbone segments which is threaded by a third disulfide bond. It is invariably associated with nearby beta-sheet structure and appears to be a highly efficient motif for structure stabilization. Because of this stability it makes an ideal framework for molecular engineering applications. In this review we summarize the main structural features of the cystine knot motif, focussing on toxin molecules containing either the inhibitor cystine knot or the cyclic cystine knot. Peptides containing these motifs are 26-48 residues long and include ion channel blockers, haemolytic agents, as well as molecules having antiviral and antibacterial activities. The stability of peptide toxins containing the cystine knot motif, their range of bioactivities and their unique structural scaffold can be harnessed for molecular engineering applications and in drug design. Applications of cystine knot molecules for the treatment of pain. and their potential use in antiviral and antibacterial applications are described. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.