An aggregate sales model for consumer durables incorporating a time-varying mean replacement age

Forecasting category or industry sales is a vital component of a company's planning and control activities. Sales for most mature durable product categories are dominated by replacement purchases. Previous sales models which explicitly incorporate a component of sales due to replacement assume there is an age distribution for replacements of existing units which remains constant over time. However, there is evidence that changes in factors such as product reliability/durability, price, repair costs, scrapping values, styling and economic conditions will result in changes in the mean replacement age of units. This paper develops a model for such time-varying replacement behaviour and empirically tests it in the Australian automotive industry. Both longitudinal census data and the empirical analysis of the replacement sales model confirm that there has been a substantial increase in the average aggregate replacement age for motor vehicles over the past 20 years. Further, much of this variation could be explained by real price increases and a linear temporal trend. Consequently, the time-varying model significantly outperformed previous models both in terms of fitting and forecasting the sales data. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Clinicopathological significance of the 'keloid-like' collagen and myxoid stroma in advanced rectal cancer

Aim: To establish the histological categorization of fibrotic stroma which reflects the biological behaviour of advanced rectal cancer. Methods and results: Six hundred and twenty-seven surgically resected cases of advanced rectal carcinoma were examined. We histologically categorized fibrotic stroma in the invasive frontal region into three groups: type A, multiple fine and mature fibres were stratified into layers: type B, broad bands of eosinophilic hyalinized collagen ('keloid-like' collagen) were intermingled: type C, myxoid stroma. Type A stroma was observed in 63% of patients, type B stroma in 25%, type C stroma in 12%.. The incidence of type A stroma decreased in accordance with Dukes stage (98% in Dukes A: 73% in B: 41%, in C1: 29% in C2) and conversely, there was an increase of C type (0%, in Dukes A; 4%, in B: 20% in C1: 54% in C2). Stroma type had a significant correlation with long-term survival (80% of 5-year survival in type A stroma: 54% in type B: 26% in type C). Based on multivariate analysis. it was found that the stromal pattern had independent prognostic value, together with nodal involvement. growth pattern. and lymphocyte infiltration. Conclusions: Tumour fibrotic stroma may play an important role as a regulator of neoplastic behaviour. Pathological categorization of the fibrotic stroma is helpful for predicting the prognostic outcome of patients with rectal carcinoma.

Mango stem-end rot (Botryosphaeria dothidea) disease control by partial-pressure infiltration of fungicides

The in vitro efficacy of several fungicides against Botryosphaeria dothidea (syn. Dothiorella dominicana) and their in vivo efficacy in controlling mango cv. Kensington Pride stem-end rot on partial-pressure infiltration v. dip treatment of green mature fruit was evaluated. In vitro sensitivity of B. dothidea to Benlate (benomyl), Sportak (prochloraz) and Scala (pyrimethanil) at 10 dilutions of the manufacturer's recommended rate was first determined at typical cold (13degreesC) and shelf (23degreesC) storage temperatures. The effectiveness of partial-pressure infiltration and conventional hot (52degreesC) or cold (26degreesC) dipping of fruit after harvest was then evaluated using the commercially recommended rate for each fungicide. In vitro, Benlate and Sportak prevented the growth of B. dothidea at both storage temperatures and at all concentrations, while Scala partially controlled growth of the pathogen. Benlate was the most effective fungicide for stem-end rot control. Sportak and Scala resulted in stem-end rot control when applied by partial-pressure infiltration, but not as dips. Partial-pressure infiltration holds promise for enhancing the efficacy of otherwise less effective but alternative fungicides for control of stem-end rot diseases.

Ecological regulation of development: Induction of marine invertebrate metamorphosis

In the marine environment a wide range of invertebrates have a pelagobenthic lifecycle that includes planktonic larval and benthic adult phases. Transition between these morphologically and ecologically distinct phases typically occurs when the developmentally competent larva comes into contact with a species-specific environmental cue. This cue acts as a morphogenetic signal that induces the completion of the postlarval/juvenile/adult developmental program at metamorphosis. The development of competence often occurs hours to days after the larva is morphologically mature. In the non-feeding - lecithotrophic - larvae of the ascidian Herdmania curvata and the gastropod mollusc Haliotis asinina, gene expression patterns in pre-competent and competent stages are markedly different, reflecting the different developmental states of these larval stages. For example, the expression of Hemps, an EGF-like signalling peptide required for the induction of Herdmania metamorphosis, increases in competent larvae. Induction of settlement and metamorphosis results in further changes in developmental gene expression, which apparently is necessary for the complete transformation of the larval body plan into the adult form.

Interaction of temperature and vegetative flush maturity influences shoot structure and development of lychee (Litchi chinensis Sonn.)

Potted lychee trees (cv. Tai so) of varying vegetative flush maturity were grown under a range of temperature regimes and monitored for subsequent shoot structure and development. A combination of low temperature (15/17 or 18/13 degreesC day/night) and high vegetative flush maturity was necessary for floral initiation to occur, Exposure to high temperatures (28/23 degreesC) invariably resulted in the production of vegetative shoots, irrespective of flush maturity. Strong floral initiation was marked by the emergence of terminal particles and accompanying axillary particles. A decrea,;e in vegetative flush maturity or increase in temperature (e.g. 23/18 degreesC) resulted in a decrease in axillary shoot formation and the production of several intermediate shoot structures. These included leafy particles, stunted particles, partially emerged buds and non-emergent swollen buds, often produced on the same tree. At 23/18 degreesC, closer synchronisation of initial flush maturity was required for the production of a consistent shoot-type. Trees with synchronised mature flushes (I-2) at 23/18 degreesC resulted in the production of swollen terminal buds. Healthy trees were maintained in this state for at least 11 months. These results indicate that both temperature and flush maturity can influence subsequent shoot structure of lychee. In the absence of either a strong floral temperature (18/13 degreesC) or strong vegetative temperature (28/23 degreesC), slight differences in initial flush maturity have gteater impact on the type of emerging shoot formed. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

A comparative ultrastructural study of spermatozoa of the teiid lizards Cnemidophorus gularis gularis, Cnemidophorus ocellifer, and Kentropyx altamazonica (Reptilia, Squamata, Teiidae)

The ultrastructure of the spermatozoa of Cnemidophorus gularis gularis, Cnemidophorus ocellifer, and Kentropyx altamazonica is described for the first time. Mature spermatozoa of Cnemidophorus spp. and K. altamazonica differ in the occurrence of a perforatorial base plate, the enlargement of axonemal fibers 3 and 8, and shape of mitochondria. The comparisons of the ultrastructure sperm of Cnemidophorus spp. and K. altamazonica with Ameiva ameiva [J. Morphol. (2002) in press] suggest that Ameiva and Cnemidophorus are more similar to each other than either is to Kentropyx. Statistical analyses reveal that sperm of all three species studied are significantly different in the following dimensions: head, acrosome, distal centriole length, and nuclear shoulders width. There was no variable statistically different between the Cnemidophorus spp. only. The length of the tail, midpiece, entire sperm, and nuclear rostrum are significantly different between K. altamazonica and Cnemidophorus spp. Our results indicate that sperm ultrastructure presents intra and intergeneric variability. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Testicular myxosporidiasis in anurans, with a description of Myxobolus fallax n. sp.

During studies of amphibian sperm cryopreservation, a new species of myxosporidean parasite (Myxozoa, Myxosporae) was observed in the testes of the Australian dwarf green tree frog Litoria fallax (Peters). Myxosporidiasis was found to have no affect on L. fallax body condition or sperm numbers. Myxobolus spores from L. fallax are morphologically distinct from Myxobolus hylae spores (infecting the sympatric Litoria aurea Lesson) and the three previously named (exotic to Australia) Myxobolus species found in anurans. Myxobolus fallax n. sp. is characterised by: pseudocyst white, spherical to ovoid, 141 x74 to 438 x337 mum in diameter (mature); plasmodium with spores loosely arranged within interior. Spores ovoid 13.4 +/- 0.5 (12.6-14.6) mum length, 9.5 +/- 0.4 (8.3-10.6) mum width, 6.8 +/- 0.4 (6.5-7.6) mum depth, 1.4 +/- 0.1 (1.3-1.6) length/width; polar capsules broadly pyriform and equal in size 4.2 +/- 0.3 (3.3-4.7) mum length, 2.4 +/- 0.2 (2.1-2.8) mum width; filament coils 7-8, wound tightly and perpendicular to the longitudinal axis of the capsule; polar filament 34 +/- 7.0 (18-50) mum length; intercapsular appendix and sutural ridge folds absent; and iodinophilous vacuole and mucous envelope lacking. In addition to this new species, data from archival samples of M. hylae are provided which show two morphologically distinct spore types. Both appeared rarely in the same pseudocysts and we cautiously retain the single species.

Inhibition of adventitious rooting in Backhousia citriodora F. Muell cuttings correlate with the concentration of essential oil

Backhousia citriodora is typical of the many commercially valuable woody Australian Myrtaceae species that are recalcitrant in forming adventitious roots from cuttings after maturation. A series of experiments were conducted to identify an endogenous rooting inhibitor in line with established criteria. Endogenous levels of citral were correlated with the rooting capacities of juvenile versus mature, and easy- versus difficult-to-root genotypes of B. citriodora, in both winter and summer. The biological activity of citral was confirmed in bioassays on mung beans and easy-to-root B. citriodora seedlings. Evidence of a common mechanism of root inhibition with other species in the Myrtaceae and the role of action of citral are discussed.

Towards the clonal propagation of coconut

Past studies from our laboratory have shown that whole immature, or mature sliced, zygotic embryos are a very good starting explant for coconut somatic embryogenesis. The highest rate of somatic embryogenesis was obtained when certain polyamines were added into the culture medium as well as activated charcoal (AC) to absorb unwanted phenolics. These past studies also showed that the development and maturation of the somatic embryos produced could be improved by the addition of abscisic acid (ABA), alone or with one of several osmotically active agents, into the culture medium. In the present study this well characterised somatic embryogenic system for zygotic tissues is being modified and applied to somatic tissues. This recent approach should be a better method for the rapid production of clonal, true-to-type coconut palms. The present research approach is focused on young leaf section explants which have been found to be very responsive to callus production. Young leaf sections produced optimum callus when cultured on media containing 2,4-D (150 μM) and the amount produced could be increased by soaking the sections in sterile water (15 to 60 minutes) or ascorbic acid (15 to 30 minutes) prior to culturing. Further improvement in callus production, as well as a reduction in the time taken for callogenesis was obtained when casein hydrolysate and/or certain polyamines were added to the callus induction medium. The development of the somatic embryos was improved by using ABA and polyethylene glycol (PEG) in the maturation medium. Despite these initial successes in improving coconut somatic embryogenesis, further studies are now being considered to shorten the time to achieve somatic embryogenesis, to better germinate somatic embryos and to improve the rate of somatic seedling conversion into plantlets.

Reproductive biology of the eastern shovelnose ray, Aptychotrema rostrata (Shaw & Nodder, 1794), from Moreton Bay, Queensland, Australia

The eastern shovelnose ray, Aptychotrema rostrata (Rhinobatidae), is an endemic batoid common to the east coast of Australia. The reproductive cycle was studied in Moreton Bay, south-eastern Queensland, over a 14-month period. Aptychotrema rostrata is an aplacental yolksac viviparous species with an annual, seasonal reproductive cycle in Moreton Bay. Females mature at 54-66 cm total length, and males at 60-68 cm total length. Gravid females were observed during September-November and parturition occurred in November-December. Vitellogenesis does not proceed in parallel with gestation. Ovulation and copulation probably occur during July-September, resulting in a gestational period of 3-5 months. Uterine fecundity ranges from 4 to 18, with a significant positive relationship between uterine fecundity and maternal body length. In mature males, a peak in the proportion of mature spermatocysts in the testes was observed in July, whereas gonadosomatic index peaked in April.

Age does not influence the bone response to treadmill exercise in female rats

Purpose: Because it is believed that bone may respond to exercise differently at different ages, we compared bone responses in immature and mature rats after 12 wk of treadmill running. Methods: Twenty-two immature (5-wk-old) and 21 mature (17-wk-old) female Sprague Dawley rats were randomized into a running (trained, N = 10 immature, 9 mature) or a control group (controls, N 12 immature, 12 mature) before sacrifice 12 wk later. Rats ran on a treadmill five times per week for 60-70 min at speeds up to 26 m.min(-1). Both at baseline and after intervention, we measured total body, lumbar spine, and proximal femoral bone mineral, as well as total body soft tissue composition using dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) in vivo. After sacrificing the animals, we measured dynamic and static histomorphometry and three-point bending strength of the tibia. Results: Running training was associated with greater differences in tibial subperiosteal area, cortical cross-sectional area, peak load, stiffness, and moment of inertia in immature and mature rats (P < 0.05). The trained rats had greater periosteal bone formation rates (P < 0.01) than controls, but there was no difference in tibial trabecular bone histomorphometry. Similar running-related gains were seen in DXA lumbar spine area (P = 0.04) and bone mineral content (BMC; P = 0.03) at both ages. For total body bone area and BMC, the immature trained group increased significantly compared with controls (P < 0.05), whereas the mature trained group gained less than did controls (P < 0.01). Conclusion: In this in vivo model, where a similar physical training program was performed by immature and mature female rats, we demonstrated that both age groups were sensitive to loading and that bone strength gains appeared to result more from changes in bone geometry than from improved material properties.

Enhanced quantitative resistance to Leptosphaeria maculans conferred by expression of a novel antimicrobial peptide in canola (Brassica napus L.)

The novel antimicrobial peptide MiAMP1, originally isolated from the seeds of Macadamia integrifolia, was constitutively expressed in transgenic tobacco and canola plants to test its effect on disease resistance. Analysis of plants transformed with 35S-MiAMP1 construct by northern and western blot analyses demonstrated the presence of MiAMP1 mRNA and the mature peptide in the transgenic plants. The MiAMP1 purified from the leaves of transgenic plants was biologically active with the same in vitro antifungal activity as native MiAMP1 purified from the seeds of macadamia. The effect of MiAMP1 expression on the economically important canola pathogen Leptosphaeria maculans (causal agent of blackleg disease) was evaluated in comparison with an untransformed control line and an azygous segregant derived from one of the transgenic lines. Lesion development on the cotyledons of the inoculated canola seedlings was significantly reduced in the T-2 progeny of seven independently transformed transgenic lines. These results suggested that, transgenic canola expressing MiAMP1 may be useful for the management of blackleg disease.

Sustained high levels of foliar herbivory of the mangrove Rhizophora stylosa by a moth larva Doratifera stenosa (Limacodidae) in north-eastern Australia

The moth larva, Doratifera stenosa (Lepidoptera: Limacodidae), was observed feeding voraciously in great numbers on mature leaves of Rhizophora stylosa in mangroves at Port Curtis in Central Queensland, NE Australia. This behaviour was considered unusual since mangroves, and the Rhizophora species in particular, reportedly harbour few herbivores and have relatively low levels of herbivory, less than 10%. During a two year period (1996-1998), larvae were observed consuming around 30-40% of leaves in the canopy each year, and the mangroves appeared able to sustain these high levels of herbivory. The impact on trees was assessed in conjunction with a study of the herbivore, its behaviour and life history, in an attempt to explain the occurrence. Larvae were 1-2 cm in length, bright green and gregarious, with numerous small, stinging hairs along their upper bodies. Feeding was in small cohort groups of 5-70 individuals that broke up immediately prior to each moult after which they regrouped in much larger numbers of mixed cohorts to form single-file processions across branches, stems and prop roots. In this way, they moved to neighbouring trees with less affected foliage. One of the outstanding characteristics of this herbivore was its ability to desist from killing host trees although it appeared quite capable of doing so had it remained on individual trees. By moving from tree to tree, the herbivore was able to heavily crop Rhizophora foliage in an apparently sustainable manner. These findings demonstrate the role and importance of foliar herbivory in severely affected forests and how such instances best not be ignored or treated as curiosities in future assessments of herbivory and forest turnover in mangrove ecosystems.

A comparative analysis of the behaviour of domestic and international young tourists

This paper provides a comparative analysis of the behaviour of young, single, British international and domestic tourists during their holidays. The research was located in Torquay, on the Southwest coast of England, and Cala Millor, on the Northeast of Mallorca. These locations represent two of the most popular destinations for young British tourists on domestic and international vacations, respectively. The findings of this research suggest that young, single, British tourists on domestic vacations behave in a different manner compared to those holidaying at the international level. Indeed, compared to domestic tourists, young people on international vacations tended to behave in a more passive and hedonistic manner. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Is Cadinella ornatissima a chomodorid? Sperm ultra structure in an enigmatic nudibranch (Opisthobranchia Mollusca)

Sperm ultrastructure is described for the nudibranch gastropod Cadlinella ornatissima, type species of the genus Cadlinella (Thiele). Although C. ornatissima exhibits most of the sperm features characteristic of other Opisthobranchia and the Pulmonata (a small, rounded acrosomal vesicle, a complex, helical, mitochondrial derivative - partially paracrystalline, coarse fibres associated with the axoneme), it also possesses a number of previously undescribed and possibly unique features (a longitudinally inrolled acrosomal pedestal, an axial structure within the cavity of the acrosomal pedestal, an electron-dense collar at the anterior region of the acrosomal pedestal, the presence of crystalloid bodies within the glycogen helices of the mitochondrial derivative). To our knowledge this is the first report of crystalloid bodies in mature sperm of any mollusc. Collectively this evidence raises questions concerning the affinities and systematic position of Cadlinella within the Nudibranchia. The peculiar nature of the sperm differences, in comparison with other investigated nudibranchs, suggest that Cadlinella is not easily linked to either the Cadlinidae or Chromodorididae, and should be considered incertae sedis.