Selecting methods to solve multi-well master equations

There are several competing methods commonly used to solve energy grained master equations describing gas-phase reactive systems. When it comes to selecting an appropriate method for any particular problem, there is little guidance in the literature. In this paper we directly compare several variants of spectral and numerical integration methods from the point of view of computer time required to calculate the solution and the range of temperature and pressure conditions under which the methods are successful. The test case used in the comparison is an important reaction in combustion chemistry and incorporates reversible and irreversible bimolecular reaction steps as well as isomerizations between multiple unimolecular species. While the numerical integration of the ODE with a stiff ODE integrator is not the fastest method overall, it is the fastest method applicable to all conditions.

Actively shielded multi-layer gradient coil designs with improved cooling properties

In standard cylindrical gradient coils consisting of a single layer of wires, a limiting factor in achieving very large magnetic field gradients is the rapid increase in coil resistance with efficiency. This is a particular problem in small-bore scanners, such as those used for MR microscopy. By adopting a multi-layer design in which the coil wires are allowed to spread out into multiple layers wound at increasing radii, a more favourable scaling of resistance with efficiency is achieved, thus allowing the design of more powerful gradient coils with acceptable resistance values. Previously this approach has been applied to the design of unshielded, longitudinal, and transverse gradient coils. Here, the multi-layer approach has been extended to allow the design of actively shielded multi-layer gradient coils, and also to produce coils exhibiting enhanced cooling characteristics. An iterative approach to modelling the steady-state temperature distribution within the coil has also been developed. Results indicate that a good level of screening can be achieved in multi-layer coils, that small versions of such coils can yield higher efficiencies at fixed resistance than conventional two-layer (primary and screen) coils, and that performance improves as the number of layers of increases. Simulations show that by optimising multi-layer coils for cooling it is possible to achieve significantly higher gradient strengths at a fixed maximum operating temperature. A four-layer coil of 8 mm inner diameter has been constructed and used to test the steady-state temperature model. (C) 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

On measuring quality of a probabilistic commodity forecast for a system that incorporates seasonal climate forecasts

Regional commodity forecasts are being used increasingly in agricultural industries to enhance their risk management and decision-making processes. These commodity forecasts are probabilistic in nature and are often integrated with a seasonal climate forecast system. The climate forecast system is based on a subset of analogue years drawn from the full climatological distribution. In this study we sought to measure forecast quality for such an integrated system. We investigated the quality of a commodity (i.e. wheat and sugar) forecast based on a subset of analogue years in relation to a standard reference forecast based on the full climatological set. We derived three key dimensions of forecast quality for such probabilistic forecasts: reliability, distribution shift, and change in dispersion. A measure of reliability was required to ensure no bias in the forecast distribution. This was assessed via the slope of the reliability plot, which was derived from examination of probability levels of forecasts and associated frequencies of realizations. The other two dimensions related to changes in features of the forecast distribution relative to the reference distribution. The relationship of 13 published accuracy/skill measures to these dimensions of forecast quality was assessed using principal component analysis in case studies of commodity forecasting using seasonal climate forecasting for the wheat and sugar industries in Australia. There were two orthogonal dimensions of forecast quality: one associated with distribution shift relative to the reference distribution and the other associated with relative distribution dispersion. Although the conventional quality measures aligned with these dimensions, none measured both adequately. We conclude that a multi-dimensional approach to assessment of forecast quality is required and that simple measures of reliability, distribution shift, and change in dispersion provide a means for such assessment. The analysis presented was also relevant to measuring quality of probabilistic seasonal climate forecasting systems. The importance of retaining a focus on the probabilistic nature of the forecast and avoiding simplifying, but erroneous, distortions was discussed in relation to applying this new forecast quality assessment paradigm to seasonal climate forecasts. Copyright (K) 2003 Royal Meteorological Society.