Polytomous item response theory models

Polytomous Item Response Theory Models provides a unified, comprehensive introduction to the range of polytomous models available within item response theory (IRT). It begins by outlining the primary structural distinction between the two major types of polytomous IRT models. This focuses on the two types of response probability that are unique to polytomous models and their associated response functions, which are modeled differently by the different types of IRT model. It describes, both conceptually and mathematically, the major specific polytomous models, including the Nominal Response Model, the Partial Credit Model, the Rating Scale model, and the Graded Response Model. Important variations, such as the Generalized Partial Credit Model are also described as are less common variations, such as the Rating Scale version of the Graded Response Model. Relationships among the models are also investigated and the operation of measurement information is described for each major model. Practical examples of major models using real data are provided, as is a chapter on choosing an appropriate model. Figures are used throughout to illustrate important elements as they are described.

Dependence of transient dynamics in a class-C laser upon variation of inversion with time

The transient statistics of a gain-switched coherently pumped class-C laser displays a linear correlation between the first passage time and subsequent peak intensity. Measurements are reported showing a positive or negative sign of this linear correlation, controlled through the switching time and the laser detuning. Further measurements of the small-signal laser gain combined with calculations involving a three-level laser model indicate that this sign fundamentally depends upon the way the laser inversion varies during the gain switching, despite the added dynamics of the laser polarization in the class-C laser. [S1050-2947(97)07112-6].

Classical and quantum noise in electronic systems

We review the description of noise in electronic circuits in terms of electron transport. The Poisson process is used as a unifying principle. In recent years, much attention has been given to current noise in light-emitting diodes and laser diodes. In these devices, random events associated with electron transport are correlated with photon emission times, thus modifying both the current statistics and the statistics of the emitted light. We give a review of experiments in this area with special emphasis on the ability of such devices to produce subshot-noise currents and light beams. Finally we consider the noise properties of a class of mesoscopic devices based on the quantum tunnelling of an electron into and out of a bound state. We present a simple quantum model of this process which confirms that the current noise in such a device should be subshot-noise.

Critical sets for families of Latin squares

In this paper I give details of new constructions for critical sets in latin squares. These latin squares, of order n, are such that they can be partitioned into four subsquares each of which is based on the addition table of the integers module n/2, an isotopism of this or a conjugate.

A novel method for selection of chymotrypsin inhibitors from a phage peptide library

A novel screening strategy has been developed for the identification of alpha-chymotrypsin inhibitors from a phage peptide library. In this strategy, the standard affinity selection protocol was modified by adding a proteolytic cleavage period to avoid recovery of alpha-chymotrypsin substrates. After four cycles of selection and further activity assay, a group of related peptides were identified by DNA sequencing. These peptides share a consensus sequence motif as (S/T)RVPR(R/H). Then, a corresponding short peptide (Ac-ASRVPRRG-NH2) was synthesized chemically and proved to be an inhibitor of alpha-chymotrypsin. The present work provides a useful way for searching proteinase inhibitors without detailed knowledge of the molecular structure.

Prediction of MHC class II-binding peptides using an evolutionary algorithm and artificial neural network

Motivation: Prediction methods for identifying binding peptides could minimize the number of peptides required to be synthesized and assayed, and thereby facilitate the identification of potential T-cell epitopes. We developed a bioinformatic method for the prediction of peptide binding to MHC class II molecules. Results: Experimental binding data and expert knowledge of anchor positions and binding motifs were combined with an evolutionary algorithm (EA) and an artificial neural network (ANN): binding data extraction --> peptide alignment --> ANN training and classification. This method, termed PERUN, was implemented for the prediction of peptides that bind to HLA-DR4(B1*0401). The respective positive predictive values of PERUN predictions of high-, moderate-, low- and zero-affinity binder-a were assessed as 0.8, 0.7, 0.5 and 0.8 by cross-validation, and 1.0, 0.8, 0.3 and 0.7 by experimental binding. This illustrates the synergy between experimentation and computer modeling, and its application to the identification of potential immunotheraaeutic peptides.

Interval breast cancers in an Australian mammographic screening program

Objective: To determine the incidence of interval cancers which occurred in the first 12 months after mammographic screening at a mammographic screening service. Design: Retrospective analysis of data obtained by crossmatching the screening Service and the New South Wales Central Cancer Registry databases. Setting: The Central & Eastern Sydney Service of BreastScreen NSW. Participants: Women aged 40-69 years at first screen, who attended for their first or second screen between 1 March 1988 and 31 December 1992. Main outcome measures: Interval-cancer rates per 10 000 screens and as a proportion of the underlying incidence of breast cancer (as estimated by the underlying rate in the total NSW population). Results: The 12-month interval-cancer incidence per 10 000 screens was 4.17 for the 40-49 years age group (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.35-9.73) and 4.64 for the 50-69 years age group (95% CI, 2.47-7.94). Proportional incidence rates were 30.1% for the 40-49 years age group (95% CI, 9.8-70.3) and 22% for the 50-69 years age group (95% CI, 11.7-37.7). There was no significant difference between the proportional incidence rate for the 50-69 years age group for the Central & Eastern Sydney Service and those of major successful overseas screening trials. Conclusion: Screening quality was acceptable and should result in a significant mortality reduction in the screened population. Given the small number of cancers involved, comparison of interval-cancer statistics of mammographic screening programs with trials requires age-specific or age-adjusted data, and consideration of confidence intervals of both program and trial data.

Likelihood-based estimation of the regression model with scrambled responses

A significant problem in the collection of responses to potentially sensitive questions, such as relating to illegal, immoral or embarrassing activities, is non-sampling error due to refusal to respond or false responses. Eichhorn & Hayre (1983) suggested the use of scrambled responses to reduce this form of bias. This paper considers a linear regression model in which the dependent variable is unobserved but for which the sum or product with a scrambling random variable of known distribution, is known. The performance of two likelihood-based estimators is investigated, namely of a Bayesian estimator achieved through a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling scheme, and a classical maximum-likelihood estimator. These two estimators and an estimator suggested by Singh, Joarder & King (1996) are compared. Monte Carlo results show that the Bayesian estimator outperforms the classical estimators in almost all cases, and the relative performance of the Bayesian estimator improves as the responses become more scrambled.

5-cycle systems of K-v-F with a hole

Recently the problem of the existence of a 5-cycle system of K-v with a hole of size u was completely solved. In this paper we prove necessary and sufficient conditions on v and u for the existence of a 5-cycle system of K-v - F, with a hole of size u.

Suicide in urban New South Wales, Australia 1985-1994: Socio-economic and migrant interactions

Variation of suicide with socio-economic status (SES) in urban NSW (Australia) during 1985-1994, by sex and country or region of birth, was examined using Poisson regression analysis of vital statistics and population data (age greater than or similar to 15 yr). Quintiles of SES were defined by municipality of residence and comparisons of suicide by SES were adjusted for age and country (or region) of birth (COB), and examined by COB. Risk of suicide in females was 28% that of males for all adults and 21% for youth (age 15-24 yr). Suicide risk was lower in males from southern Europe, Middle East and Asia, and higher in northern and eastern European males, compared to the Australian-born. Risks for suicide increased significantly with decreasing SES in males, but not in females. The relationship of male suicide and SES was stronger when controlled for COB. For males, the relative risk of suicide, adjusted for age and COB, was 66% higher in the lowest SES quintile compared to the highest quintile, and 39% higher for youth (age 15-24 yr). For male suicide, the population attributable fraction for SES (less than the highest quintile) was 27%. Analysis of SES differentials in male suicide according to COB indicated a significant inverse suicide gradient in relation to SES for the Australian-born and those burn in New Zealand and the United Kingdom or fire. but not in non-English speaking COB groups, except for Asia. For Australian-born males, suicide risk was 71% higher in the lowest SES group (compared to the highest), adjusted for age. These findings indicate that SES plays an important role in male suicide rates among the Australian-born and migrants from English-speaking countries and Asia, and among youth; but not in female suicide, nor suicide in most non-English speaking migrant groups. Reduction in SES differentials through economic and social policies may reduce male suicide in lower SES groups and should be seen to be at least as important as individual level interventions. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evolution of three-dimensional folds for a non-Newtonian plate in a viscous medium

We derive analytical solutions for the three-dimensional time-dependent buckling of a non-Newtonian viscous plate in a less viscous medium. For the plate we assume a power-law rheology. The principal, axes of the stretching D-ij in the homogeneously deformed ground state are parallel and orthogonal to the bounding surfaces of the plate in the flat state. In the model formulation the action of the less viscous medium is replaced by equivalent reaction forces. The reaction forces are assumed to be parallel to the normal vector of the deformed plate surfaces. As a consequence, the buckling process is driven by the differences between the in-plane stresses and out of plane stress, and not by the in-plane stresses alone as assumed in previous models. The governing differential equation is essentially an orthotropic plate equation for rate dependent material, under biaxial pre-stress, supported by a viscous medium. The differential problem is solved by means of Fourier transformation and largest growth coefficients and corresponding wavenumbers are evaluated. We discuss in detail fold evolutions for isotropic in-plane stretching (D-11 = D-22), uniaxial plane straining (D-22 = 0) and in-plane flattening (D-11 = -2D(22)). Three-dimensional plots illustrate the stages of fold evolution for random initial perturbations or initial embryonic folds with axes non-parallel to the maximum compression axis. For all situations, one dominant set of folds develops normal to D-11, although the dominant wavelength differs from the Biot dominant wavelength except when the plate has a purely Newtonian viscosity. However, in the direction parallel to D-22, there exist infinitely many modes in the vicinity of the dominant wavelength which grow only marginally slower than the one corresponding to the dominant wavelength. This means that, except for very special initial conditions, the appearance of a three-dimensional fold will always be governed by at least two wavelengths. The wavelength in the direction parallel to D-11 is the dominant wavelength, and the wavelength(s) in the direction parallel to D-22 is determined essentially by the statistics of the initial state. A comparable sensitivity to the initial geometry does not exist in the classic two-dimensional folding models. In conformity with tradition we have applied Kirchhoff's hypothesis to constrain the cross-sectional rotations of the plate. We investigate the validity of this hypothesis within the framework of Reissner's plate theory. We also include a discussion of the effects of adding elasticity into the constitutive relations and show that there exist critical ratios of the relaxation times of the plate and the embedding medium for which two dominant wavelengths develop, one at ca. 2.5 of the classical Biot dominant wavelength and the other at ca. 0.45 of this wavelength. We propose that herein lies the origin of parasitic folds well known in natural examples.