Estimates of global and regional potential health gains from reducing multiple major risk factors

Background Estimates of the disease burden due to multiple risk factors can show the potential gain from combined preventive measures. But few such investigations have been attempted, and none on a global scale. Our aim was to estimate the potential health benefits from removal of multiple major risk factors. Methods We assessed the burden of disease and injury attributable to the joint effects of 20 selected leading risk factors in 14 epidemiological subregions of the world. We estimated population attributable fractions, defined as the proportional reduction in disease or mortality that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to an alternative level, from data for risk factor prevalence and hazard size. For every disease, we estimated joint population attributable fractions, for multiple risk factors, by age and sex, from the direct contributions of individual risk factors. To obtain the direct hazards, we reviewed publications and re-analysed cohort data to account for that part of hazard that is mediated through other risks. Results Globally, an estimated 47% of premature deaths and 39% of total disease burden in 2000 resulted from the joint effects of the risk factors considered. These risks caused a substantial proportion of important diseases, including diarrhoea (92%-94%), lower respiratory infections (55-62%), lung cancer (72%), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (60%), ischaemic heart disease (83-89%), and stroke (70-76%). Removal of these risks would have increased global healthy life expectancy by 9.3 years (17%) ranging from 4.4 years (6%) in the developed countries of the western Pacific to 16.1 years (43%) in parts of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Removal of major risk factors would not only increase healthy life expectancy in every region, but also reduce some of the differences between regions, The potential for disease prevention and health gain from tackling major known risks simultaneously would be substantial.

Spinal stiffness changes throughout the respiratory cycle

Posteroanterior stiffness of the lumbar spine is influenced by factors, including trunk muscle activity and intra-abdominal pressure (IAP). Because these factors vary with breathing, this study investigated whether stiffness is modulated in a cyclical manner with respiration. A further aim was to investigate the relationship between stiffness and IAP or abdominal and paraspinal muscle activity. Stiffness was measured from force-displacement responses of a posteroanterior force applied over the spinous process of L-2 and L-4. Recordings were made of IAP and electromyographic activity from L-4/L-2 erector spinae, abdominal muscles, and chest wall. Stiffness was measured with the lung volume held at the extremes of tidal volume and at greater and lesser volumes. Stiffness at L-4 and L-2 increased above base-level values at functional residual capacity (L-2 14.9 N/mm and L-4 15.3 N/mm) with both inspiratory and expiratory efforts. The increase was related to the respiratory effort and was greatest during maximum expiration (L-2 24.9 N/mm and L-4 23.9 N/mm). The results indicate that changes in trunk muscle activity and IAP with respiratory efforts modulate spinal stiffness. In addition, the diaphragm may augment spinal stiffness via attachment of its crural fibers to the lumbar vertebrae.

Theoretical and experimental studies of unbraced tubular trusses allowing for torsional stiffness

This paper describes the buckling phenomenon of a tubular truss with unsupported length through a full-scale test and presents a practical computational method for the design of the trusses allowing for the contribution of torsional stiffness against buckling, of which the effect has never been considered previously by others. The current practice for the design of a planar truss has largely been based on the linear elastic approach which cannot allow for the contribution of torsional stiffness and tension members in a structural system against buckling. The over-simplified analytical technique is unable to provide a realistic and an economical design to a structure. In this paper the stability theory is applied to the second-order analysis and design of the structural form, with detailed allowance for the instability and second-order effects in compliance with design code requirements. Finally, the paper demonstrates the application of the proposed method to the stability design of a commonly adopted truss system used in support of glass panels in which lateral bracing members are highly undesirable for economical and aesthetic reasons.

Usefulness of quantitative echocardiographic techniques to predict recovery of regional and global left ventricular function after acute myocardial infarction

The left ventricular response to dobutamine may be quantified using tissue Doppler measurement of myocardial velocity or displacement or 3-dimensional echocardiography to measure ventricular volume and ejection fraction. This study sought to explore the accuracy of these methods for predicting segmental and global responses to therapy. Standard dobutamine and 3-dimensional echocardiography were performed in 92 consecutive patients with abnormal left ventricular function at rest. Recovery of function was defined by comparison with follow-up echocardiography at rest 5 months later. Segments that showed improved regional function at follow-up showed a higher increment in peak tissue Doppler velocity with dobutamine therapy than in nonviable segments (1.2 +/- 0.4 vs 0.3 +/- 0.2 cm/s, p = 0.001). Similarly, patients who showed a > 5% improvement of ejection fraction at follow-up showed a greater displacement response to dobutamine (6.9 +/- 3.2 vs 2.1 +/- 2.3 mm, p = 0.001), as well as a higher rate of ejection fraction, response to dobutamine (9 +/- 3% vs 2 +/- 2%, p = 0.001). The optimal cutoff values for predicting subsequent recovery of function at rest were an increment of peak velocity > 1 cm/s, >5 mm of displacement, and a >5% improvement of ejection fraction with low-dose dobutamine. (C) 2003 by Excerpta Medica, Inc.

Ventricular dysfunction in early diabetic heart disease: detection, mechanisms and significance

The detection of preclinical heart disease is a new direction in diabetes care. This comment describes the study by Vinereanu and co-workers in this issue of Clinical Science in which tissue Doppler echocardiography has been employed to demonstrate subtle systolic and diastolic dysfunction in Type 11 diabetic patients who had normal global systolic function and were free of coronary artery disease. The aetiology of early ventricular dysfunction in diabetes relates to complex intramyocardial and extramyocardial mechanisms. The initiating event may be due to insulin resistance, and involves abnormal myocardial substrate utilization and uncoupling of mitochondrial oxidative phosphorylation. Dysglycaemia plays an important role via the effects of oxidative stress, protein kinase C activation and advanced glycosylation end-products on inflammatory signalling, collagen metabolism and fibrosis. Extramyocardial mechanisms involve peripheral endothelial dysfunction, arterial stiffening and autonomic neuropathy. The clinical significance of the ventricular abnormalities described is unknown. Confirmation of their prognostic importance for cardiac disease in diabetes would justify routine screening for presymptomatic ventricular dysfunction, as well as clinical trials of novel agents for correcting causal mechanisms. These considerations could also have implications for patients with obesity and the metabolic syndrome.

A global health problem caused by arsenic from natural sources

Arsenic is a carcinogen to both humans and animals. Arsenicals have been associated with cancers of the skin, lung, and bladder. Clinical manifestations of chronic arsenic poisoning include non-cancer end point of hyper- and hypo-pigmentation, keratosis, hypertension, cardiovascular diseases and diabetes. Epidemiological evidence indicates that arsenic concentration exceeding 50 mug l(-1) in the drinking water is not public health protective. The current WHO recommended guideline value for arsenic in drinking water is 10 mug l(-1), whereas many developing countries are still having a value of 50 mug 1(-1). It has been estimated that tens of millions of people are. at risk exposing to excessive levels of arsenic from both contaminated water and arsenic-bearing coal from natural sources. The global health implication and possible intervention strategies were also discussed in this review article. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Measuring the accumulated hazards of smoking: global and regional estimates for 2000

Objective: Current prevalence of smoking, even where data are available, is a poor proxy for cumulative hazards of smoking, which depend on several factors including the age at which smoking began, duration of smoking, number of cigarettes smoked per day, degree of inhalation, and cigarette characteristics such as tar and nicotine content or filter type. Methods: We extended the Peto-Lopez smoking impact ratio method to estimate accumulated hazards of smoking for different regions of the world. Lung cancer mortality data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease mortality database. The American Cancer Society Cancer Prevention Study, phase 11 (CPS-II) with follow up for the years 1982 to 1988 was the reference population. For the global application of the method, never-smoker lung cancer mortality rates were chosen based on the estimated use of coal for household energy in each region. Results: Men in industrialised countries of Europe, North America, and the Western Pacific had the largest accumulated hazards of smoking. Young and middle age males in many regions of the developing world also had large smoking risks. The accumulated hazards of smoking for women were highest in North America followed by Europe. Conclusions: In the absence of detailed data on smoking prevalence and history, lung cancer mortality provides a robust indicator of the accumulated hazards of smoking. These hazards in developing countries are currently more concentrated among young and middle aged males.

Estimates of global mortality attributable to smoking in 2000

Background Smoking is a risk factor for several diseases and has been increasing in many developing countries. Our aim was to estimate global and regional mortality in 2000 caused by smoking, including an analysis of uncertainty. Methods Following the methods of Peto and colleagues, we used lung-cancer mortality as an indirect marker for accumulated smoking risk. Never-smoker lung-cancer mortality was estimated based on the household use of coal with poor ventilation. Relative risks were taken from the American Cancer Society Cancer Prevention Study, phase II, and the retrospective proportional mortality analysis of Liu and colleagues in China. Relative risks were corrected for confounding and extrapolation to other regions. Results We estimated that in 2000, 4.83 (uncertainty range 3.94-5.93) million premature deaths in the world were attributable to smoking; 2.41 (1.80-3.15) million in developing countries and 2.43 (2.13-2.78) million in industrialised countries. 3.84 million of these deaths were in men. The leading causes of death from smoking were cardiovascular diseases (1.69 million deaths), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (0.97 million deaths), and lung cancer (0.85 million deaths). Interpretation Smoking was an important cause of global mortality in 2000. In view of the expected demographic and epidemiological transitions and current smoking patterns in the developing world, the health loss due to smoking will grow even larger unless effective interventions and policies that reduce smoking among men and prevent increases among women in developing countries are implemented.