Reconciling paleodistribution models and comparative phylogeography in the Wet Tropics rainforest land snail Gnarosophia bellendenkerensis (Brazier 1875)

Comparative phylogeography has proved useful for investigating biological responses to past climate change and is strongest when combined with extrinsic hypotheses derived from the fossil record or geology. However, the rarity of species with sufficient, spatially explicit fossil evidence restricts the application of this method. Here, we develop an alternative approach in which spatial models of predicted species distributions under serial paleoclimates are compared with a molecular phylogeography, in this case for a snail endemic to the rainforests of North Queensland, Australia. We also compare the phylogeography of the snail to those from several endemic vertebrates and use consilience across all of these approaches to enhance biogeographical inference for this rainforest fauna. The snail mtDNA phylogeography is consistent with predictions from paleoclimate modeling in relation to the location and size of climatic refugia through the late Pleistocene-Holocene and broad patterns of extinction and recolonization. There is general agreement between quantitative estimates of population expansion from sequence data (using likelihood and coalescent methods) vs. distributional modeling. The snail phylogeography represents a composite of both common and idiosyncratic patterns seen among vertebrates, reflecting the geographically finer scale of persistence and subdivision in the snail. In general, this multifaceted approach, combining spatially explicit paleoclimatological models and comparative phylogeography, provides a powerful approach to locating historical refugia and understanding species' responses to them.

A real symmetric Lanczos subspace implementation of quantum scattering using boundary inhomogeneities

We present an efficient and robust method for calculating state-to-state reaction probabilities utilising the Lanczos algorithm for a real symmetric Hamiltonian. The method recasts the time-independent Artificial Boundary Inhomogeneity technique recently introduced by Jang and Light (J. Chem. Phys. 102 (1995) 3262) into a tridiagonal (Lanczos) representation. The calculation proceeds at the cost of a single Lanczos propagation for each boundary inhomogeneity function and yields all state-to-state probabilities (elastic, inelastic and reactive) over an arbitrary energy range. The method is applied to the collinear H + H-2 reaction and the results demonstrate it is accurate and efficient in comparison with previous calculations. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Lanczos subspace time-independent wave packet calculations of S(D-1)+H-2 reactive scattering

In this paper. we present the results of quantum dynamical simulations of the S (D-1) + H-2 insertion reaction on a newly developed potential energy surface (J. Chem. Phys. 2001, 114, 320). State-to-state reaction probabilities. product state distributions, and initial-state resolved cumulative reaction probabilities from a given incoming reactant channel are obtained from a time-independent wave packet analysis, performed within a single Lanczos subspace. Integral reaction cross sections are then estimated by J-shifting method and compared with the results from molecular beam experiment and QCT calculations.

Chebyshev real wave packet propagation: H+O-2 (J=0) state-to-state reactive scattering calculations

In this paper we explore the relative performance of two recently developed wave packet methodologies for reactive scattering, namely the real wave packet Chebyshev domain propagation of Gray and Balint-Kurti [J. Chem. Phys. 108, 950 (1998)] and the Lanczos subspace wave packet approach of Smith [J. Chem. Phys. 116, 2354 (2002); Chem. Phys. Lett. 336, 149 (2001)]. In the former method, a modified Schrodinger equation is employed to propagate the real part of the wave packet via the well-known Chebyshev iteration. While the time-dependent wave packet from the modified Schrodinger equation is different from that obtained using the standard Schrodinger equation, time-to-energy Fourier transformation yields wave functions which differ only trivially by normalization. In the Lanczos subspace approach the linear system of equations defining the action of the Green operator may be solved via either time-dependent or time-independent methods, both of which are extremely efficient due to the simple tridiagonal structure of the Hamiltonian in the Lanczos representation. The two different wave packet methods are applied to three dimensional reactive scattering of H+O-2 (total J=0). State-to-state reaction probabilities, product state distributions, as well as initial-state-resolved cumulative reaction probabilities are examined. (C) 2002 American Institute of Physics.

Simulating growth, development, and yield of tillering pearl millet. III. Biomass accumulation and partitioning

Pearl millet landraces from Rajasthan, India, yield significantly less than improved cultivars under optimum growing conditions, but not under stressed conditions. To successfully develop a simulation model for pearl millet, capable of capturing such genotype x environment (G x E) interactions for grain yield, we need to understand the causes of the observed yield interaction. The aim of this paper is to quantify the key parameters that determine the accumulation and partitioning of biomass: the,light extinction coefficient, radiation use efficiency (RUE), pattern of dry matter allocation to the leaf blades, the determination of grain number, and the rate and duration of dry matter accumulation into individual grains. We used data on improved cultivars and landraces, obtained from both published and unpublished sources collected at ICRISAT, Patancheru, India. Where possible, the effects of cultivar and axis (main shoot vs. tillers) on these parameters were analysed, as previous research suggested that G x E interactions for grain yield are associated with differences in tillering habit. Our results indicated there were no cultivar differences in extinction coefficient, RUE, and biomass partitioning before anthesis, and differences between axes in biomass partitioning were negligible. This indicates there was no basis for cultivar differences in the potential grain yield. Landraces, however, produced consistently less grain yield for a given rate of dry matter accumulation at anthesis than did improved cultivars. This was caused by a combination of low grain number and small grain size. The latter was predominantly due to a lower grain growth rate, as genotypic differences in the duration of grain filling were relatively small. Main shoot and tillers also had a similar duration of grain filling. The low grain yield of the landraces was associated with profuse nodal tillering, supporting the hypothesis that grain yield was below the potential yield that could be supported by assimilate availability. We hypothesise this is a survival strategy, which enhances the prospects to escape the effects of stress around anthesis. (C) 2002 E.J. van Oosterom. Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

The mitochondrial 12S gene is a suitable marker of populations of Sarcoptes scabiei from wombats, dogs and humans in Australia

We sequenced part of the mitochondrial 12S ribosomal RNA gene of 23 specimens of Sarcoptes scabiei from eight wombats, one dog and three humans. Twelve of the 326 nucleotide positions varied among these mites and there were nine haplotypes (sequences) that differed by 1-8 nucleotides. Phylogenetic analyses indicated that these mites were from two lineages: (1) mites from wombats from Victoria, Australia, and mites from the humans and dog from the Northern Territory, Australia (haplotypes 1-4, 9); and (2) mites from the humans and dog from the Northern Territory (haplotypes 5-8). Mites from the three different hosts (wombats, a dog and humans) had not diverged phylogenetically; rather, these mites had similar 12S sequences. Thus, we conclude that these mites from wombats, humans and a dog are closely related, and that they diverged from a common ancestor relatively recently. This conclusion is consistent with the argument that people and/or their dogs introduced to Australia the S. scabiei mites that infect wombats Australia. So, S. scabiei, which has been blamed for the extinction of populations of wombats in Australia, may be a parasitic mite that was introduced to Australia with people and/or their dogs. These data show that the mitochondrial 12S rRNA gene may be a suitable population marker of S. scabiei from wombats, dogs and humans in Australia.

Branching processes and computational collapse of discretized unimodal mappings

In computer simulations of smooth dynamical systems, the original phase space is replaced by machine arithmetic, which is a finite set. The resulting spatially discretized dynamical systems do not inherit all functional properties of the original systems, such as surjectivity and existence of absolutely continuous invariant measures. This can lead to computational collapse to fixed points or short cycles. The paper studies loss of such properties in spatial discretizations of dynamical systems induced by unimodal mappings of the unit interval. The problem reduces to studying set-valued negative semitrajectories of the discretized system. As the grid is refined, the asymptotic behavior of the cardinality structure of the semitrajectories follows probabilistic laws corresponding to a branching process. The transition probabilities of this process are explicitly calculated. These results are illustrated by the example of the discretized logistic mapping.

Making decisions about treatment for localized prostate cancer

Objective To describe the decision-making processes used by men diagnosed with localized prostate cancer who were considering treatment. Patients and methods Men newly diagnosed with localized prostate cancer from outpatient urology clinics and urologist's private practices were approached before treatment. Their decision-making processes and information-seeking behaviour was assessed; demographic information was also obtained. Results Of 119 men approached, 108 (90%) were interviewed; 91% reported non-systematic decision processes, with deferral to the doctor, positive and negative recollections of others' cancer experiences, and the pre-existing belief that surgery is a better cancer treatment being most common. For systematic information processing the mean (SD, range) number of items considered was 4.19 (2.28, 0-11), with 57% of men considering four or fewer treatment/medical aspects of prostate cancer. Men most commonly considered cancer stage (59%), urinary incontinence (55%) and impotence (51%) after surgery, and low overall mortality (45%). Uncertainty about probabilities for cure was reported by 43% of men and fear of cancer spread by 37%. Men also described uncertainty about the probabilities of side-effects (27%), decisional uncertainty (25%) and anticipated decisional regret (18%). Overall, 73% of men sought information about prostate cancer from external sources, most commonly the Internet, followed by family and friends. Conclusions In general, men did not use information about medical treatments comprehensively or systematically when making treatment decisions, and their processing of medical information was biased by their previous beliefs about cancer and health. These findings have implications for the provision of informational and decisional support to men considering prostate cancer treatment.

Predicting plant leaf area production: shoot assimilate accumulation and partitioning, and leaf area ratio, are stable for a wide range of sorghum population densities

Predicting plant leaf area production is required for modelling carbon balance and tiller dynamics in plant canopies. Plant leaf area production can be studied using a framework based on radiation intercepted, radiation use efficiency (RUE) and leaf area ratio (LAR) (ratio of leaf area to net above-ground biomass). The objective of this study was to test this framework for predicting leaf area production of sorghum during vegetative development by examining the stability of the contributing components over a large range of plant density. Four densities, varying from 2 to 16 plants m(-2), were implemented in a field experiment. Plants were either allowed to tiller or were maintained as uniculm by systematic tiller removal. In all cases, intercepted radiation was recorded daily and leaf area and shoot dry matter partitioning were quantified weekly at individual culm level. Up to anthesis, a unique relationship applied between fraction of intercepted radiation and leaf area index, and between shoot dry weight accumulation and amount of intercepted radiation, regardless of plant density. Partitioning of shoot assimilate between leaf, stem and head was also common across treatments up to anthesis, at both plant and culm levels. The relationship with thermal time (TT) from emergence of specific leaf area (SLA) and LAR of tillering plants did not change with plant density. In contrast, SLA of uniculm plants was appreciably lower under low-density conditions at any given TT from emergence. This was interpreted as a consequence of assimilate surplus arising from the inability of the plant to compensate by increasing the leaf area a culm could produce. It is argued that the stability of the extinction coefficient, RUE and plant LAR of tillering plants observed in these conditions provides a reliable way to predict leaf area production regardless of plant density. Crown Copyright (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Biodiversity conservation and vegetation clearing in Queensland: Principles and thresholds

Clearing of native vegetation is a major threat to biodiversity in Australia. In Queensland, clearing has resulted in extensive ecosystem transformation, especially in the more fertile parts of the landscape. In this paper, we examine Queensland, Australian and some overseas evidence of the impact of clearing and related fragmentation effects on terrestrial biota. The geographic locus is the semi-arid regions. although we recognise that coastal regions have been extensively cleared. The evidence reviewed here suggests that the reduction of remnant vegetation to 30% will result in the loss of 25-35% of vertebrate fauna, with the full impact not realised for another 50-100 years, or even longer. Less mobile, habitat specialists and rare species appear to be particularly at risk. We propose three broad principles For effective biodiversity conservation in Queensland: (i) regional native vegetation retention thresholds of 50910: (ii) regional ecosystem thresholds of 30%: and (iii) landscape design and planning principles that protect large remnants, preferably > 2000 ha, as core habitats. Under these retention thresholds. no further clearing would be permitted in the extensively cleared biogeographic regions such as Brigalow Belt and New England Tablelands. Some elements of the biota. however, will require more detailed knowledge and targeted retention and management to ensure their security. The application of resource sustainability and economic criteria outlined elsewhere in this volume should be applied to ensure that the biogeographic regions in the north and west of Queensland that are largely intact continue to provide extensive wildlife habitat.

Testing landscape metrics as indicators of habitat loss and fragmentation in continuous eucalypt forests (Queensland, Australia)

Landscape metrics are widely applied in landscape ecology to quantify landscape structure. However, many are poorly tested and require rigorous validation if they are to serve as reliable indicators of habitat loss and fragmentation, such as Montreal Process Indicator 1.1e. We apply a landscape ecology theory, supported by exploratory and confirmatory statistical techniques, to empirically test landscape metrics for reporting Montreal Process Indicator 1.1e in continuous dry eucalypt forests of sub-tropical Queensland, Australia. Target biota examined included: the Yellow-bellied Glider (Petaurus australis); the diversity of nectar and sap feeding glider species including P. australis, the Sugar Glider P. breviceps, the Squirrel Glider P. norfolcensis, and the Feathertail Glider Acrobates pygmaeus; six diurnal forest birds species; total diurnal bird species diversity; and the density of nectar-feeding diurnal bird species. Two scales of influence were considered: the stand-scale (2 ha), and a series of radial landscape extents (500 m - 2 km; 78 - 1250 ha) surrounding each fauna transect. For all biota, stand-scale structural and compositional attributes were found to be more influential than landscape metrics. For the Yellow-bellied Glider, the proportion of trace habitats with a residual element of old spotted-gum/ironbark eucalypt trees was a significant landscape metric at the 2 km landscape extent. This is a measure of habitat loss rather than habitat fragmentation. For the diversity of nectar and sap feeding glider species, the proportion of trace habitats with a high coefficient of variation in patch size at the 750 m extent was a significant landscape metric. None of the landscape metrics tested was important for diurnal forest birds. We conclude that no single landscape metric adequately captures the response of the region's forest biota per se. This poses a major challenge to regional reporting of Montreal Process Indicator 1.1e, fragmentation of forest types.

On the intrinsic capacity for increase of Australian flying-foxes (Pteropus spp., Megachiroptera)

In the reproductive biology of organisms, a continuum exists from "highly reproductive species" at one end to "survivor species" at the other end. Among other factors, the position of a species along this continuum affects its sensitivity to human exploitation and its vulnerability to extinction. Flying foxes are long-lived, seasonal breeders, with a rigid, well-defined breeding season that is largely or wholly genetically determined. Unlike opportunistic, highly reproductive species, such as rabbits or mice, female flying foxes are unable to produce viable young before their second or third year of life, and are then capable of producing just one young per year. Such a breeding strategy will be successful only if flying-foxes are long-lived and suffer naturally low mortality rates. In this paper, we assess the vulnerability of flying foxes to extinction, using basic parameters of reproduction observed in the wild, and in captive breeding colonies of P. poliocephalus, P. alecto and P. scapulatus, and survival rates that are likely to apply to Australian conditions. Our models show explicitly that flying-fox populations have a very low capacity for increase, even under the most ideal conditions. The implications of our models are discussed in reference to the long-term management and conservation needs of Australian flying foxes. We conclude that current death-rates of flying-foxes in NSW and Queensland fruit orchards are putting state populations at serious risk.

Geographic range size, life history and rates of diversification in Australian mammals

What causes species richness to vary among different groups of organisms? Two hypotheses are that large geographical ranges and fast life history either reduce extinction rates or raise speciation rates, elevating a clade's rate of diversification. Here we present a comparative analysis of these hypotheses using data on the phylogenetic relationships, geographical ranges and life history of the terrestrial mammal fauna of Australia. By comparing species richness patterns to null models, we show that species are distributed nonrandomly among genera. Using sister-clade comparisons to control for clade age, we then find that faster diversification is significantly associated with larger geographical ranges and larger litters, but there is no evidence for an effect of body size or age at first breeding on diversification rates. We believe the most likely explanation for these patterns is that larger litters and geographical ranges increase diversification rates because they buffer species from extinction. We also discuss the possibility that positive effects of litter size and range size on diversification rates result from elevated speciation rates.

A note on quasi-stationary distributions of birth-death processes and the SIS logistic epidemic

For Markov processes on the positive integers with the origin as an absorbing state, Ferrari, Kesten, Martinez and Picco studied the existence of quasi-stationary and limiting conditional distributions by characterizing quasi-stationary distributions as fixed points of a transformation Phi on the space of probability distributions on {1, 2,.. }. In the case of a birth-death process, the components of Phi(nu) can be written down explicitly for any given distribution nu. Using this explicit representation, we will show that Phi preserves likelihood ratio ordering between distributions. A conjecture of Kryscio and Lefevre concerning the quasi-stationary distribution of the SIS logistic epidemic follows as a corollary.

The last dicynodont: An Australian Cretaceous relict

Some long-forgotten fossil evidence reveals that a dicynodont (mammal-like reptile of the infraorder Dicynodontia) inhabited Australia as recently as the Early Cretaceous, ca. 110 Myr after the supposed extinction of dicynodonts in the Late Triassic. This remarkably late occurrence more than doubles the known duration of dicynodont history (from ca. 63 Myr to ca. 170 Myr) and betrays the profound impact of geographical isolation on Australian terrestrial faunas through the Mesozoic. Australia's late-surviving dicynodont may be envisaged as a counterpart of the ceratopians (homed dinosaurs) in Cretaceous tetrapod faunas of Asia and North America.