Melanocytic nevi, solar keratoses, and divergent pathways to cutaneous melanoma

Background: Some melanomas form on sun-exposed body sites, whereas others do not. We previously proposed that melanomas at different body sites arise through different pathways that have different associations with melanocytic nevi and solar keratoses. We tested this hypothesis in a case-case comparative study of melanoma patients in Queensland, Australia. Methods: We randomly selected patients from among three prespecified groups reported to the population-based Queensland Cancer Registry: those with superficial spreading or nodular melanomas of the trunk (n = 154, the reference group), those with such melanomas of the head and neck (n = 77, the main comparison group), and those with lentigo maligna melanoma (LMM) (n = 75, the chronic sun-exposed group). Each participant completed a questionnaire, and a research nurse counted melanocytic nevi and solar keratoses. We calculated exposure odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) to quantify the association between factors of interest and each melanoma group. Results: Patients with head and neck melanomas, compared with patients with melanomas of the trunk, were statistically significantly less likely to have more than 60 nevi (OR = 0.34, 95% CI = 0.15 to 0.79) but were statistically significantly more likely to have more than 20 solar keratoses (OR = 3.61, 95% CI = 1.42 to 9.17) and also tended to have a past history of excised solar skin lesions (OR = 1.87, 95% CI = 0.89 to 3.92). Patients with LMM were also less likely than patients with truncal melanomas to have more than 60 nevi (OR = 0.32, 95% CI = 0.14 to 0.75) and tended toward more solar keratoses (OR = 2.14, 95% CI = 0.88 to 5.16). Conclusions: Prevalences of nevi and solar keratoses differ markedly between patients with head and neck melanomas or LMM and patients with melanomas of the trunk. Cutaneous melanomas may arise through two pathways, one associated with melanocyte proliferation and the other with chronic exposure to sunlight.

Estimates of global and regional potential health gains from reducing multiple major risk factors

Background Estimates of the disease burden due to multiple risk factors can show the potential gain from combined preventive measures. But few such investigations have been attempted, and none on a global scale. Our aim was to estimate the potential health benefits from removal of multiple major risk factors. Methods We assessed the burden of disease and injury attributable to the joint effects of 20 selected leading risk factors in 14 epidemiological subregions of the world. We estimated population attributable fractions, defined as the proportional reduction in disease or mortality that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to an alternative level, from data for risk factor prevalence and hazard size. For every disease, we estimated joint population attributable fractions, for multiple risk factors, by age and sex, from the direct contributions of individual risk factors. To obtain the direct hazards, we reviewed publications and re-analysed cohort data to account for that part of hazard that is mediated through other risks. Results Globally, an estimated 47% of premature deaths and 39% of total disease burden in 2000 resulted from the joint effects of the risk factors considered. These risks caused a substantial proportion of important diseases, including diarrhoea (92%-94%), lower respiratory infections (55-62%), lung cancer (72%), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (60%), ischaemic heart disease (83-89%), and stroke (70-76%). Removal of these risks would have increased global healthy life expectancy by 9.3 years (17%) ranging from 4.4 years (6%) in the developed countries of the western Pacific to 16.1 years (43%) in parts of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Removal of major risk factors would not only increase healthy life expectancy in every region, but also reduce some of the differences between regions, The potential for disease prevention and health gain from tackling major known risks simultaneously would be substantial.