94 resultados para Dynamic Bayesian Networks
Resumo:
We are witnessing an enormous growth in biological nitrogen removal from wastewater. It presents specific challenges beyond traditional COD (carbon) removal. A possibility for optimised process design is the use of biomass-supporting media. In this paper, attached growth processes (AGP) are evaluated using dynamic simulations. The advantages of these systems that were qualitatively described elsewhere, are validated quantitatively based on a simulation benchmark for activated sludge treatment systems. This simulation benchmark is extended with a biofilm model that allows for fast and accurate simulation of the conversion of different substrates in a biofilm. The economic feasibility of this system is evaluated using the data generated with the benchmark simulations. Capital savings due to volume reduction and reduced sludge production are weighed out against increased aeration costs. In this evaluation, effluent quality is integrated as well.
Resumo:
The temperature dependence of the X- and Q-band EPR spectra of Cs-2[Zn(H2O)(6)](ZrF6)(2) containing similar to1% Cu2+ is reported. All three molecular g-values vary with temperature, and their behavior is interpreted using a model in which the potential surface of the Jahn-Teller distorted Cu(H2O)(6)(2+) ion is perturbed by an orthorhombic strain induced by interactions with the surrounding lattice. The strain parameters are significantly smaller than those reported previously for the Cu(H2O)(6)(2+) ion in similar lattices. The temperature dependence of the two higher g-values suggests that in the present compound the lattice interactions change slightly with temperature. The crystal structure of the Cs-2[Zn(H2O)(6)](ZrF6)(2) host is reported, and the geometry of the Zn(H2O)(6)(2+) ion is correlated with lattice strain parameters derived from the EPR spectrum of the guest Cu2+ complex.
Resumo:
This theoretical note describes an expansion of the behavioral prediction equation, in line with the greater complexity encountered in models of structured learning theory (R. B. Cattell, 1996a). This presents learning theory with a vector substitute for the simpler scalar quantities by which traditional Pavlovian-Skinnerian models have hitherto been represented. Structured learning can be demonstrated by vector changes across a range of intrapersonal psychological variables (ability, personality, motivation, and state constructs). Its use with motivational dynamic trait measures (R. B. Cattell, 1985) should reveal new theoretical possibilities for scientifically monitoring change processes (dynamic calculus model; R. B. Cattell, 1996b), such as encountered within psycho therapeutic settings (R. B. Cattell, 1987). The enhanced behavioral prediction equation suggests that static conceptualizations of personality structure such as the Big Five model are less than optimal.
Resumo:
The widespread adoption of soil conservation technologies by farmers (notably contour hedgerows) observed in Guba, Cebu City, Philippines, is not often observed elsewhere In the country. Adoption of these technologies was because of the interaction of such phenomena as site-specific factors, appropriate extension systems, and technologies. However, lack of hedgerow maintenance, decreasing hedgerow quality, and disappearance of hedgerows raised concerns about sustainability. The dynamic nature of upland farming systems suggests the need for a location-specific farming system development framework, which provides farmers with ongoing extension for continual promotion of appropriate conservation practices.
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In this paper we refer to the gene-to-phenotype modeling challenge as the GP problem. Integrating information across levels of organization within a genotype-environment system is a major challenge in computational biology. However, resolving the GP problem is a fundamental requirement if we are to understand and predict phenotypes given knowledge of the genome and model dynamic properties of biological systems. Organisms are consequences of this integration, and it is a major property of biological systems that underlies the responses we observe. We discuss the E(NK) model as a framework for investigation of the GP problem and the prediction of system properties at different levels of organization. We apply this quantitative framework to an investigation of the processes involved in genetic improvement of plants for agriculture. In our analysis, N genes determine the genetic variation for a set of traits that are responsible for plant adaptation to E environment-types within a target population of environments. The N genes can interact in epistatic NK gene-networks through the way that they influence plant growth and development processes within a dynamic crop growth model. We use a sorghum crop growth model, available within the APSIM agricultural production systems simulation model, to integrate the gene-environment interactions that occur during growth and development and to predict genotype-to-phenotype relationships for a given E(NK) model. Directional selection is then applied to the population of genotypes, based on their predicted phenotypes, to simulate the dynamic aspects of genetic improvement by a plant-breeding program. The outcomes of the simulated breeding are evaluated across cycles of selection in terms of the changes in allele frequencies for the N genes and the genotypic and phenotypic values of the populations of genotypes.
Resumo:
It has been argued that power-law time-to-failure fits for cumulative Benioff strain and an evolution in size-frequency statistics in the lead-up to large earthquakes are evidence that the crust behaves as a Critical Point (CP) system. If so, intermediate-term earthquake prediction is possible. However, this hypothesis has not been proven. If the crust does behave as a CP system, stress correlation lengths should grow in the lead-up to large events through the action of small to moderate ruptures and drop sharply once a large event occurs. However this evolution in stress correlation lengths cannot be observed directly. Here we show, using the lattice solid model to describe discontinuous elasto-dynamic systems subjected to shear and compression, that it is for possible correlation lengths to exhibit CP-type evolution. In the case of a granular system subjected to shear, this evolution occurs in the lead-up to the largest event and is accompanied by an increasing rate of moderate-sized events and power-law acceleration of Benioff strain release. In the case of an intact sample system subjected to compression, the evolution occurs only after a mature fracture system has developed. The results support the existence of a physical mechanism for intermediate-term earthquake forecasting and suggest this mechanism is fault-system dependent. This offers an explanation of why accelerating Benioff strain release is not observed prior to all large earthquakes. The results prove the existence of an underlying evolution in discontinuous elasto-dynamic, systems which is capable of providing a basis for forecasting catastrophic failure and earthquakes.
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We compare Bayesian methodology utilizing free-ware BUGS (Bayesian Inference Using Gibbs Sampling) with the traditional structural equation modelling approach based on another free-ware package, Mx. Dichotomous and ordinal (three category) twin data were simulated according to different additive genetic and common environment models for phenotypic variation. Practical issues are discussed in using Gibbs sampling as implemented by BUGS to fit subject-specific Bayesian generalized linear models, where the components of variation may be estimated directly. The simulation study (based on 2000 twin pairs) indicated that there is a consistent advantage in using the Bayesian method to detect a correct model under certain specifications of additive genetics and common environmental effects. For binary data, both methods had difficulty in detecting the correct model when the additive genetic effect was low (between 10 and 20%) or of moderate range (between 20 and 40%). Furthermore, neither method could adequately detect a correct model that included a modest common environmental effect (20%) even when the additive genetic effect was large (50%). Power was significantly improved with ordinal data for most scenarios, except for the case of low heritability under a true ACE model. We illustrate and compare both methods using data from 1239 twin pairs over the age of 50 years, who were registered with the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council Twin Registry (ATR) and presented symptoms associated with osteoarthritis occurring in joints of the hand.
Resumo:
Using benthic habitat data from the Florida Keys (USA), we demonstrate how siting algorithms can help identify potential networks of marine reserves that comprehensively represent target habitat types. We applied a flexible optimization tool-simulated annealing-to represent a fixed proportion of different marine habitat types within a geographic area. We investigated the relative influence of spatial information, planning-unit size, detail of habitat classification, and magnitude of the overall conservation goal on the resulting network scenarios. With this method, we were able to identify many adequate reserve systems that met the conservation goals, e.g., representing at least 20% of each conservation target (i.e., habitat type) while fulfilling the overall aim of minimizing the system area and perimeter. One of the most useful types of information provided by this siting algorithm comes from an irreplaceability analysis, which is a count of the number of, times unique planning units were included in reserve system scenarios. This analysis indicated that many different combinations of sites produced networks that met the conservation goals. While individual 1-km(2) areas were fairly interchangeable, the irreplaceability analysis highlighted larger areas within the planning region that were chosen consistently to meet the goals incorporated into the algorithm. Additionally, we found that reserve systems designed with a high degree of spatial clustering tended to have considerably less perimeter and larger overall areas in reserve-a configuration that may be preferable particularly for sociopolitical reasons. This exercise illustrates the value of using the simulated annealing algorithm to help site marine reserves: the approach makes efficient use of;available resources, can be used interactively by conservation decision makers, and offers biologically suitable alternative networks from which an effective system of marine reserves can be crafted.
Resumo:
Measurement of exchange of substances between blood and tissue has been a long-lasting challenge to physiologists, and considerable theoretical and experimental accomplishments were achieved before the development of the positron emission tomography (PET). Today, when modeling data from modern PET scanners, little use is made of earlier microvascular research in the compartmental models, which have become the standard model by which the vast majority of dynamic PET data are analysed. However, modern PET scanners provide data with a sufficient temporal resolution and good counting statistics to allow estimation of parameters in models with more physiological realism. We explore the standard compartmental model and find that incorporation of blood flow leads to paradoxes, such as kinetic rate constants being time-dependent, and tracers being cleared from a capillary faster than they can be supplied by blood flow. The inability of the standard model to incorporate blood flow consequently raises a need for models that include more physiology, and we develop microvascular models which remove the inconsistencies. The microvascular models can be regarded as a revision of the input function. Whereas the standard model uses the organ inlet concentration as the concentration throughout the vascular compartment, we consider models that make use of spatial averaging of the concentrations in the capillary volume, which is what the PET scanner actually registers. The microvascular models are developed for both single- and multi-capillary systems and include effects of non-exchanging vessels. They are suitable for analysing dynamic PET data from any capillary bed using either intravascular or diffusible tracers, in terms of physiological parameters which include regional blood flow. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Admission controls, such as trunk reservation, are often used in loss networks to optimise their performance. Since the numerical evaluation of performance measures is complex, much attention has been given to finding approximation methods. The Erlang Fixed-Point (EFP) approximation, which is based on an independent blocking assumption, has been used for networks both with and without controls. Several more elaborate approximation methods which account for dependencies in blocking behaviour have been developed for the uncontrolled setting. This paper is an exploratory investigation of extensions and synthesis of these methods to systems with controls, in particular, trunk reservation. In order to isolate the dependency factor, we restrict our attention to a highly linear network. We will compare the performance of the resulting approximations against the benchmark of the EFP approximation extended to the trunk reservation setting. By doing this, we seek to gain insight into the critical factors in constructing an effective approximation. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
The article describes an attempt to improve student learning outcomes in a computer networks course by making lectures more active learning experiences. Quick quizzes, group and individual exercises, the review of student questions, as well as multiple breaks, were incorporated into the weekly three-hour lectures. Student responses to the modified lectures was overwhelmingly positive: over 85% of respondents agreed that the lectures aided understanding, with large majorities of the respondents finding the individual activities useful to their learning. Although student examination performance improved over the previous year, performance on an examination question that was designed to examine deep understanding remained unchanged.