The use and abuse of population viability analysis

A recent study by Brook ef al. empirically tested the performance of population viability analysis (PVA) using data from 21 populations across a wide range of species. The study concluded that PVAs are good at predicting the future dynamics of populations. We suggest that this conclusion is a result of a bias in the studies that Brook et al, included in their analyses, We present arguments that PVAs can only be accurate at predicting extinction probabilities if data are extensive and reliable, and if the distribution of vital rates between individuals and years can be assumed stationary in the future, or if any changes can be accurately predicted. In particular, we note th at although catastrophes are likely to have precipitated many extinctions, estimates of the probability of catastrophes are unreliable.

Deletion of 8p: a report of a child with normal intelligence

The case is presented of a female infant with a distal deletion of 8p (8p23.1 --> pter) whose development was monitored over a 5-year period from 12 months of age. Although previous literature has suggested that 8p deletion is associated with mild to moderate intellectual disability, the child reported here has normal intelligence. Despite initial delays in gross motor and language skills, cognitive development (assessed with the Bayley Scales of Infant Development) and intellectual ability (measured on the Stanford-Binet Intelligence Scale) were within average range. It is argued that the small number of previous case reports may have created a misleading impression of intellectual development in individuals with distal deletions of 8p.

Sexual recombination in Phytophthora cinnamomi in vitro and aggressiveness of single-oospore progeny to Eucalyptus

Fifty single oospore progeny were established from an in vitro mating of A1 and A2 mating type isolates of Phytophthora cinnamomi from South Africa. Forty-nine progeny were identified as F-1 hybrids using seven random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) primers, and one was a selfed isolate of the A1 mating type parent. Among the hybrid progeny, 24 and 25 were A1 and A2 mating type, respectively. Aggressiveness of progeny and parental isolates was assessed on 1-year-old seedlings of Eucalyptus smithii. The mean aggressiveness of hybrid oosporic isolates, expressed as lesion length, was significantly (P = 0.0001) lower than that of the parental isolates. No significant difference in aggressiveness of A1 and A2 mating type F-1 hybrid isolates was observed. This is the first report demonstrating sexual recombination in vitro in P. cinnamomi.

Child-Pugh class, nutritional indicators and early liver transplant outcomes

Background/Aims: Patients with chronic liver disease undergoing liver transplantation have reduced body fat and muscle mass. The extent to which nutritional indicators and Child-Pugh class are predictive of postoperative outcome in adults is unclear. The aims of this study were to determine in adult patients undergoing transplant 1) the influence of preoperative Child-Pugh class and nutritional indicators on early transplant outcomes and one-year survival, 2) the relationship between nutritional indicators and Child-Pugh class and disease type. This study included 80 patients (1990-1994). Methodology: The nutritional indicators utilized were grip strength, triceps skinfold thickness and uncorrected mid-arm muscle area. Measured outcomes were ventilator time, intensive care stay, postoperative hospital stay and one-year survival. Results: Early morbidity was determined in survivors. Child-Pugh class C patients required longer ventilation and spent more time in the intensive care unit than Child-Pugh classes A and B. No significant relationships were found length of hospital stay. Relationships between the nutritional indicators (when controlled for Child-Pugh class) and early morbidity could not be determined due;to insufficient data. No relationship was established between one-year survival and Child-Pugh class or the nutritional indicators. Grip strength and mid-arm muscle area were lower in the patients in Child-Pugh:classes B and C. Parenchymal liver disease was associated with lower grip strength and mid-arm muscle area when compared to cholestatic disease. Conclusions: Child-Pugh class C is associated with greater early postoperative morbidity. Advanced Child-Pugh class is also associated with diminished muscle status and parenchymal disease.

Emotional cue exposure for alcohol abuse: Development of a new treatment procedure to train moderation drinking in the context of dysphoria

Negative mood states are credited to exacerbate excessive drinking among problem drinkers. We developed an emotional cue exposure treatment procedure and applied it to three problem drinkers who have a history of drinking excessively under stressful emotional states. All three preferred a controlled drinking goal and received an average of seven sessions of treatment. Treatment comprised of providing alcohol (priming doses), followed by negative mood induction and response prevention of further drinking. Reductions were observed in the quantity and frequency of drinking, the Beck Depression Inventory, the Severity of Alcohol Dependence Questionnaire (Form C) and the Impaired Control Questionnaire scores. Increments were observed in self-efficacy to face different difficult situations. These gains were maintained at the 6-month follow-up. Providing alcohol to problem drinkers in treatment, followed by negative mood induction and response prevention, is clinically feasible and may benefit clients who drink under a variety of stressful mood states. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.